Analyzing goals scored and conceded

[looping]

After a good season overall

it seems to me I have a defensive problem. Conceding 48 goals is obviously too much but also the way I scored my goals and, specifically, who scored the goals, is certainly concerning.

This is my tactic:

I don't think there is an obvious and shocking unbalance in my tactic, otherwise my results wouldn't be so good. It may be not perfect but I don't know why I'm conceding so many goals and why the goals I score are not the kind of goals I'd like to score.

I've also used a 4141 against top teams which produced decent defensive football, but this is not how I want to pay most of my matches, so I have no interest on discussing it. I don't care, to some extent and anyway it would be another discussion, if my 4141 is ok. It somewhat Works against top teams. I'm not unhappy with it. Problem is against mid table and weaker teams who regularly score 1-2 goals against me.

I have a problem defending crosses.

 

On the other hand, I'm scoring a lot from crosses and through balls, which is fine, but I don't like who is scoring my goals.

This is my AF:

He scored only 9 goals but had 10 assists. If my AF is not leading my team in goals scored it's because I'm doing something terribly wrong.

 

This is my DLF:

Roles are somewhat reversed. He is scoring more but has less assists

 

And finally, the most shocking one, my winger:

Excellent. He scored 17 goals but this is not his job.

 

My typical goal is: pass to the WP, left fb overlaps, crosses to the far post and the winger/dlf scores.

 

Questions are:

- Is there anything in my tactic encouraging conceding from crosses?

- How can I defend crosses better? What should I pay attention specifically during matches to find if there is anything specifically wrong?

- How can I encourage:

AF scoring more

Winger scoring less and assisting more

DLF scoring less and assisting more.

 

 

[Svenc]

Hm, attacking wise that's pretty much what I'd expect. You have a wide play maker, so that's where play is channeled through. He may also feed the advancing full back, who is going to cross.

The forward thing could be random chance. They're pretty close anyhow. You'd really need to look at the shots they take to determine who gets more regularly on the end of things, as goals scored can massively fluctuate also in between seasons (to be seen in their profile each, under reports / stats) . From my experience, two forwards are oft pretty close anyhow, unless you would specifically channel all play through one of them. A DLF will get forward after all too. Looking at the above numberes, I'm going to predict they both get about 2 shots per match each, pretty close to one another (the average long-term shot conversion is ca. about 1 in 5).

As for defending, at the start Malaga aren't that particularly well stacked, plus I manage this in-match personally. The above is overall isn't super exposing as such. However it's nothing that encourages added cautious as such after taking leads or such, a "tactics" is no proactive in-game management. On that end, I find it also real unfortunate that FM doesn't collect the shots conceded over the season (only the shots created). This goes back what said about the forwards.. goals fluctuate, the number of attempts actually taken / in this case conceded may be a far better measure, and it may show a better ranking as how a side stacks up against opposition sides. No less because individual freak matches where everything goes flying in can influence, and several more.

Similar to the statistics thread in GD -- the reason why Barcelona/Real don't score that massively many goals is that they are oft "outshot" by much lesser sides (which may be some connected to AI tactic decision making, some to game flaws). In real football they rank a league above everybody else here. It's certainly not hard coded that they struggle to breach the 2 goals per match, as you may now.  Up-front, you're pretty near to them too -- with likely much much lesser players again. This is all pretty damn relative anyhow. There's a total of 7 teams conceding less, and at least 3 of them have significantly better players/defenders for damn sure. In the last SPD season real life, you would ranked 7th here.

[Bradley21]

This match engine is so bad that it's almost impossible to score two goals in a match without one of them being from a low cross or a cutback to the penalty spot or closer in. I don't think the issue is much deeper than that, the ME simply isn't programmed to give much variety in the types of goals scored or conceded. 

[Svenc]

16 minutes ago, Bradley21 said:

This match engine is so bad that it's almost impossible to score two goals in a match without one of them being from a low cross or a cutback to the penalty spot or closer in. I don't think the issue is much deeper than that, the ME simply isn't programmed to give much variety in the types of goals scored or conceded. 

A lack of variety wouldn't necessarily mean a lack of goals. It would simply mean most goals are scored in same same ways. The primary reason those teams struggle to score more because it would oft need a complete miracle conversion of their attempts to average their real life averages.  There's no team in football that breaches 2 goals per match with but 5 shots on target per match. It's also unheard of, as Real / Barcelona consistently average up to 8 in actual football. Human players have shown to breach that already. The question is to which extent it is game related and AI tactical decision making. As I've already seen a Bayern managed AI targeting a nil nil draw from kick-off in domestic matches, same as the AI making players cut inside from out wide into the same spaces, same as them chocking the attacking space on many occasions, and similar, I know where some of my suspicious is... no idea whether they don't make them more intelligent in fear of "alienating" players, as that would sides naturally perform some better, in other words, make it harder to overachieve. Or if it's something else. There's stuff happening anyway that was imo "hardcoded" to not happen by FM 2013.

[Priboemi]

1. Both your wing is very committed on attack, no surprise they'll leave more space on the wing to be exploited by the opponents.

Left wing (WP(s) and FB (A)) they're very attack minded role. I imagine you WP is not gonna close down the opponents quickly and your left FB out of position after attacking far upfront. Thus chances for opponents wing to attack that space. 

Right wing (W(A) and FB(S)). I imagine while your winger goes far ahead, your FB will comes up to somehow fill the space left behind by your winger and support the midfield from the right side. If the opponents put an attack minded winger or any role around that space, unless you have very good FB mentally and physically, there'll be space to exploit there. I'm curious, how is your defenders compare to the leagues in team report comparison?

2. Your CD must also has very good mental (anticipation, positioning, concentration, bravery, determination, work rate, decision), physical (Acceleration, Agility, Jumping, Strength) and marking skills.

Playing flat 442 is always very risky if your defenders are just average, and your midfielders are not good enough defensively. Sure you can hope to score goals, but if you don't take your chances, the counter is dangerous.

Perhaps you could try pushing your defensive line higher, reducing the gap between your defenders and midfielders and that could help closing down their attacking winger from crossing the ball, thus reducing the amount of cross you'll need to defend from (of course you'll then need very quick defenders with good mental to cover through ball then). 

The problem is your midfielder including the left and right wing is not committed enough to close down the opponents. Perhaps 1 CM as BWM on defend could help, but I don't know. You've to try and see how it really works first.

3. The problem is not with your AF. You have to make sure there's space for your AF to exploit and score goals. If the opponents playing a bit deep, it'll be hardly any space for your AF to exploit. You must rely on your AF skills to breakthrough his dribbles and headers then to score goals. Or you can drop down your teams mentality, thus telling your teams to step back a little and invite opponents to attack you, so there'll be space left behind their players when they're attacking you that you can hit on the counter.

Winger scoring less, try setting him on support instead, shoot less often, cross more often. TI hit early crosses. If you still want him to attack far upfront, you can always set his PI to go far upfront.

The same goes with your DLF, PI shoot less often, more direct ball. Try perhaps setting your AF to Poacher instead. Just try and see.

[looping]

6 hours ago, Svenc said:

Hm, attacking wise that's pretty much what I'd expect. You have a wide play maker, so that's where play is channeled through. He may also feed the advancing full back, who is going to cross.

The forward thing could be random chance. They're pretty close anyhow. You'd really need to look at the shots they take to determine who gets more regularly on the end of things, as goals scored can massively fluctuate also in between seasons (to be seen in their profile each, under reports / stats) . From my experience, two forwards are oft pretty close anyhow, unless you would specifically channel all play through one of them. A DLF will get forward after all too. Looking at the above numberes, I'm going to predict they both get about 2 shots per match each, pretty close to one another (the average long-term shot conversion is ca. about 1 in 5).

As for defending, at the start Malaga aren't that particularly well stacked, plus I manage this in-match personally. The above is overall isn't super exposing as such. However it's nothing that encourages added cautious as such after taking leads or such, a "tactics" is no proactive in-game management. On that end, I find it also real unfortunate that FM doesn't collect the shots conceded over the season (only the shots created). This goes back what said about the forwards.. goals fluctuate, the number of attempts actually taken / in this case conceded may be a far better measure, and it may show a better ranking as how a side stacks up against opposition sides. No less because individual freak matches where everything goes flying in can influence, and several more.

Similar to the statistics thread in GD -- the reason why Barcelona/Real don't score that massively many goals is that they are oft "outshot" by much lesser sides (which may be some connected to AI tactic decision making, some to game flaws). In real football they rank a league above everybody else here. It's certainly not hard coded that they struggle to breach the 2 goals per match, as you may now.  Up-front, you're pretty near to them too -- with likely much much lesser players again. This is all pretty damn relative anyhow. There's a total of 7 teams conceding less, and at least 3 of them have significantly better players/defenders for damn sure. In the last SPD season real life, you would ranked 7th here.

Going Deep to the stats I have:

My left fb attempted 230 crosses commpleted 25 

My right winger attempted 311crosses completed 18 

My AF attempted 89 shots 47 on target 9 goals

My DLF attempted 76 shots 42 on target 14 goals

My right winger attempted 72 shots 43 on target 17 goals

It seems to me my players are doing what I told them (winger cross, AF shot....) but they are doing it wrong, which is weird according to their attributes. They are good at what they are commited to do.

 

As for defending, CCC (which is not a very reliable stat, but that's what we have)

It seems balanced. I'm creating more chances and % of success is very similar (arround 70%).

Surprisingly good tackling ratio (I do train tackles) and headers

 

Well, honestly, I think there is tactically something wrong. My players are doing well but we are conceding too much.

What I expect to happen next season is conceding the same and scoring much less, so results will drop for sure. To some extent, this already started:

[Bradley21]

8 hours ago, Svenc said:

A lack of variety wouldn't necessarily mean a lack of goals. It would simply mean most goals are scored in same same ways. The primary reason those teams struggle to score more because it would oft need a complete miracle conversion of their attempts to average their real life averages.  There's no team in football that breaches 2 goals per match with but 5 shots on target per match. It's also unheard of, as Real / Barcelona consistently average up to 8 in actual football. Human players have shown to breach that already. The question is to which extent it is game related and AI tactical decision making. As I've already seen a Bayern managed AI targeting a nil nil draw from kick-off in domestic matches, same as the AI making players cut inside from out wide into the same spaces, same as them chocking the attacking space on many occasions, and similar, I know where some of my suspicious is... no idea whether they don't make them more intelligent in fear of "alienating" players, as that would sides naturally perform some better, in other words, make it harder to overachieve. Or if it's something else. There's stuff happening anyway that was imo "hardcoded" to not happen by FM 2013.

You misunderstand. 

 

I'm not saying there's a lack of goals, i'm saying that a huge % of total goals scored are from the same two scenarios, no matter the formation, players or tactics that you employ.