Helping FM players to understand statistics (and unexpected results)

[CFuller]

It seems like every day, you read about people complaining about being "FMed" because their team lost a match with higher possession, higher xG and/or more shots than the AI opponent.

Of course, this is not exclusive to Football Manager. These results happen several times every week at various levels of professional football. Look at Newcastle vs Liverpool yesterday, for example. Or Gillingham vs Southampton in the EFL Cup earlier this month. It's just how football is sometimes.

I think a lot of the frustration comes with people not understanding how statistics work, or even how football itself works. Having more possession and more shots does not guarantee a win. Likewise, "expected goals" are not the same thing as "deserved goals" (to quote another football management game) or "the number of goals your team should have scored".

I feel like SI and FM could do a better job with educating people on things like this. I've got a couple of suggestions, and while I'm not sure if these will make that much difference, they should at least start a conversation.

 

Suggestion 1

While the game is processing, FM shows you some game tips or (sometimes) some league statistics from your current save. I think this could also be used to show real-life facts and statistics, especially after the user is involved in a match where the stats don't tell the whole story. For example:

"In 2019, Atalanta had 47 shots at goal in a Serie A match against Empoli. The match finished 0-0."

"In 2012, Barcelona had 89% possession in a Champions League match at Celtic. The match finished 2-1 to Celtic."

"55.3% of English Premier Division matches are won by the team which kept the most possession."

The latter stat is taken from a 4-year-old Tifo video, but if you can find more accurate recent data, use that instead. I think this could help some people understand that this isn't just FM trying to screw them over - stuff happens in real-life football too.

 

Suggestion 2

With certain statistics such as "expected goals", there should be a place in the game where you can read about what they actually mean - maybe an in-game guide or encyclopaedia.

This would be a place where each statistic is broken down and explained (in as simple language as possible), and how these stats should be interpreted. For example, what does it mean when a player/team is overperforming or underperforming compared to their xG or xGA?

I'm sure you guys can come up with better/more useful suggestions. Anything to help those less experienced FMers learn how football works - and/or how football statistics work.

[Zachary Whyte]

Thank you for the detailed suggestion. We will put this under consideration.