When to sell young players who won't develop?

[danej]

Some young players just won't develop well, even if you handle everything perfectly as a manager. As Zealand explains here:

 

Some players just have too bad hidden mental abilites etc. to the extent that you can't turn them around.

 

So the question is: When to cash in?

 

I assume that it so some extent depends on the situation, on the given player. But in any case I believe that there are cases where it is wiser to cash in on a young, poorly developoing player. While he is still young, still has high PA that suckers are willing to pay for. Zealand makes the same point somewhere in the video.

 

However, I am unsure about the details. When specifically to cash in on such players.

1. Always wait untill they are at least 19, have had a full season out on loan? Always untill they have at least turned 17 and are on professional contracts? Always wait untill they are at least 18 where you know more about their PA? Something else?
2. Cash in when they have developed poorly for how long? 6 months? 12 months? Something else?

 

Example: In my Sunderland save, one of the original players, Dan Neil, is on paper quite talented to begin with. 19 y/o at the start, Premier League PA. However, he always seem to develop poorly. In a previous save I eventually sold him for 1.7m when he was 23. I imagine he is the kind of player where I ought to have monitored his progress early on. And probably sold him while he was younger to cash in on his higher PA at the time.

 

Edited July 9, 2022 by danej

[herne79]

You’ve kind of already answered it yourself:

4 hours ago, danej said:

Always wait untill they are at least 18 where you know more about their PA

So long as by “PA” you mean their star rating 👍.  By the time they’ve been at your club for a few years your coaches should have a pretty good handle on whether each player will be good enough for your first team squad.

Note - a 2.5 to 3 star potential player is expected to be roughly good enough for your first team squad - at least a decent back up player.  4 stars and higher could become a first team starter.  

Also note the star ratings are based on the level at which you are playing.  So a 4 star potential player in a 4th tier club might only have one star of potential if you drop him into a top division club.  His rating may also change as you transfer in new players - if you bring in better players he’ll be compared against those better players, therefore his star rating may change accordingly.

Of course if you’re a poor club and need to cash in on prospects then go for it.  Try to get a nice sell on fee too.  It all depends on your club’s situation and how you want to play the game.

[danej]

I still wonder how actively one should try and identify the underachievers as Zealand calls them. And try to sell them while they are young, have potential on paper and you might be able to sell them for a high price.

 

And if you should have that approach at times, when and how more specifically.

[herne79]

19 minutes ago, danej said:

I still wonder how actively one should try and identify the underachievers as Zealand calls them. And try to sell them while they are young, have potential on paper and you might be able to sell them for a high price.

 

And if you should have that approach at times, when and how more specifically.

The player development model isn't straight forward and far more complex than a lot of people seem to think.  You can have two players exactly the same and they may still develop differently and at different rates.  Example - I had  Moukoko playing in my first team regularly and given a specific training schedule, and he didn't develop at all until he was 19, then he took off.  In a different save he shot up from age 17.  Would you sell him at 18 as one of these so called underachievers?

Some players develop early and grow no further after 18, 19, 20, whatever.  Some don't develop at all until they hit 19, 20, whatever.  Some develop in fits and starts.  There's nothing linear about player development, so somebody saying to cash in when they're young is too much of a generalisation.

Of course if you need the money at a small club then by all means cash in, it's essentially how small clubs stay afloat after all.  But if you can afford to keep them and your coaches are telling you they still have lots of potential then why sell?  Even if they only develop into a squad player they'll still come in handy for rotation purposes and continental competitions (and some leagues).

The thing with FM is there is no "specifically" when to do something.  You're the manager, you make your own decisions.  If you get it wrong you learn and try to do better next time .

[danej]

Very interesting. Sounds like I shouldn’t sell anyone with good potential on paper until they are at least 21. But whether to sell the underachievers when they are 21, 22 or older? From my limited experience their star PA drops a lot at each birthday from 21 and onwards, not much before then.

[herne79]

57 minutes ago, danej said:

Very interesting. Sounds like I shouldn’t sell anyone with good potential on paper until they are at least 21. But whether to sell the underachievers when they are 21, 22 or older? From my limited experience their star PA drops a lot at each birthday from 21 and onwards, not much before then.

There's no "should" or "shouldn't" in FM, there's no right or wrong.  Treat each player on their own merit - if you receive what you consider to be a good offer for a young player, regardless of his age, accept it if that's what you want to do and how you want to manage your club.  (Try to include a future sell on fee if you do).  Likewise if you get a good offer but don't want to sell, then don't.  It doesn't matter what anyone else - Youtuber, me or whoever - may or may not do or recommend, it's your decision .

A rhetorical question for you to mull over in the mean time - if you have young players with good potential who seem to be developing and you are under no pressure to sell (such as raising funds for a cash strapped club or the risk of making your whole team upset if you deny a player his dream move) then why sell them?  If you hadn't watched that video would you even be thinking about it?

As far as I'm aware, PA stars don't drop because of age.  They'll change as: your coaches get a better idea of the player; you transfer in and out better (or worse!) players which they'll be compared against; how a player and those around him develop.

[glengarry224]

1 hour ago, danej said:

Very interesting. Sounds like I shouldn’t sell anyone with good potential on paper until they are at least 21. But whether to sell the underachievers when they are 21, 22 or older? From my limited experience their star PA drops a lot at each birthday from 21 and onwards, not much before then.

In my experience, and from what I've watched and read, players don't develop much after 23 (with some exceptions), and they will develop more technically and mentally than physically as they age past 20 and each year after that.  You can see significant physical improvement from 15-18.

Of course, a lot of what you do depends upon your financial situation but look at why a player is not yet ready to play for you in relation to age.  For example, if you are managing West Ham, and your 21 year old winger or wingback has Acceleration and Pace of 10, it is highly unlikely that he'll ever improve those attributes enough to play winger or wingback, at all, at the top of the PL but a Cinch or Championship or lower-PL team might buy him for a fair price.  And depending upon his other attributes, maybe you could change his position, or should've already.

Similarly, if you're managing Fulham, and your 20 year old potential DLP has Acc/Pace of 11, Determination/Teamwork of 15, but only 10 Anticipation and Decisions, he very well could still become a good or useful PL DLP/CM (or very good Championship DLP/CM), and likely will develop enough that you can still sell him later if you're not desperate for money now.

[danej]

11 hours ago, herne79 said:

A rhetorical question for you to mull over in the mean time - if you have young players with good potential who seem to be developing and you are under no pressure to sell (such as raising funds for a cash strapped club or the risk of making your whole team upset if you deny a player his dream move) then why sell them?  If you hadn't watched that video would you even be thinking about it?

As far as I'm aware, PA stars don't drop because of age.  They'll change as: your coaches get a better idea of the player; you transfer in and out better (or worse!) players which they'll be compared against; how a player and those around him develop.

I would be thinking of selling in any case. I get annoyed when a young player develops poorly and his transfer value drops over time. I wonder whether I could have spotted that development early and sold him while his value was higher.

 

Yeah perhaps I have used the wrong words in earlier posts. Perhaps a more correct way of putting is that for some youngsters, current ability doesn't develop much, and nowhere near what it could have done according to their original potential.

Edited July 10, 2022 by danej