Help with Converting Shots into Goals

[Lurking Manager]

Hello all,

I was hoping if you guys can help me figure out how I can convert more of my shots on target into goals. To provide a bit of background, Sevilla gave me the head job after being fired from SC Paderborn (long story short, don't leak discussions between you and the chairman to the press). The amount of quality players, especially attackers, was akin to opening presents on Christmas day. I jumped on with 4 days to go until the start of the season, and the match sharpness of the players was shockingly not where it should be. I don't know what the previous manager had them doing, but increasing match sharpness has become priority number one before we start trading blows with the big boys.

So I've set up 3 tactics, the usual 4-2-3-1, my custom 4-3-3 that I developed with my time in MLS (LAFC) with success, and a defensive 4-1-4-1. Since I don't have enough strikers or time to train the 4-3-3, I'm running with the 4-2-3-1 and if I'm still around next season, I can focus there. Anywho! I've won the first two matches of the season, but not by a lot. A combined GF of 3, and with my 3rd match (and another victory), that total is now up to 5. My striker scored a brace this match which is something I was particularly happy about. 

The stats after the match is what brought me here (link below). 27 shots with 12 on target. I took a quick look at who was responsible for most of the shots, and they were from my striker with a total of 11. The rest were from my wingers (mainly my AML/Felix) and my DLP (Gundogan). I then looked at my strikers traits, and I don't see anything detrimental. Here are the pics and tactics I use. Is there anything I can do to get more goals?? Also, the tactical familiarity with my systems are still in the works. In other words, they’re relatively unfamiliar to the guys. Does that play a huge role?

Edited December 17, 2019 by Lurking Manager

[Experienced Defender]

18 minutes ago, Lurking Manager said:

 

18 minutes ago, Lurking Manager said:

I was hoping if you guys can help me figure out how I can convert more of my shots on target into goals

 

19 minutes ago, Lurking Manager said:

The stats after the match is what brought me here (link below). 27 shots with 12 on target. I took a quick look at who was responsible for most of the shots, and they were from my striker with a total of 11. The rest were from my wingers (mainly my AML/Felix) and my DLP (Gundogan). I then looked at my strikers traits, and I don't see anything detrimental

These stats alone mean nothing. The fact that you scored ("only") 2 goals from 27 shots overall, of which 12 were on target, is no indicator of the quality of your chances. Because the number of shots includes all types of them - from distance, blocked ones, from a narrow angle (or other unpromising positions), headers (which are lower-percentage shots than those taken by feet). In order for you to see how many really good chances you had - and possibly missed - you need to go into the team analysis section of the match and then watch the relevant highlights.

Therefore, I can (for now) only analyze your tactic and tell you what in my opinion could/should be improved. Let's see: 

33 minutes ago, Lurking Manager said:

Okay, here are things that I would consider most problematic in your tactic:

- contradictory instructions

- no variety on the flanks

Your setup of roles and duties and your in-possession instructions are more suited to a counter-attacking style, but then your defensive instructions seem to favor a style that wants to control the game and impose itself on the opposition. 

And given that you use both more direct passing and higher tempo under the high-risk Positive mentality (which already makes both the tempo and passing style faster and more adventurous even on default settings), I would assume that most of the chances you create are of low-quality in the sense that a player has too little time to measure his shot when presented with a chance. 

Btw, what's the exact reason you want to play for set pieces? 

[Lurking Manager]

25 minutes ago, Experienced Defender said:

In order for you to see how many really good chances you had - and possibly missed - you need to go into the team analysis section of the match and then watch the relevant highlights.

Will do. What exactly should I look for as to how I can improve or ensure a higher chance of that shot becoming a goal in the future? What could I provide here to get more insight?
 

27 minutes ago, Experienced Defender said:

Okay, here are things that I would consider most problematic in your tactic:

- contradictory instructions

- no variety on the flanks

Your setup of roles and duties and your in-possession instructions are more suited to a counter-attacking style, but then your defensive instructions seem to favor a style that wants to control the game and impose itself on the opposition. 

Can you expand a bit more on how my roles are contradicting what I want to accomplish? You’re correct that I want to control the game and apply pressure throughout and keep the opposition on their half of the field as much as possible. 

My reasoning behind the direct passing style is because the players have great passing, vision, technique, anticipation and off the ball. With those attributes I was under the impression they’d be better at moving the ball into dangerous areas quicker and effectively. I guess I’m going for quality over quantity in terms of possession. Would short passing and lower or standard tempo be more in line with that? 

33 minutes ago, Experienced Defender said:

And given that you use both more direct passing and higher tempo under the high-risk Positive mentality (which already makes both the tempo and passing style faster and more adventurous even on default settings), I would assume that most of the chances you create are of low-quality in the sense that a player has too little time to measure his shot when presented with a chance. 

Btw, what's the exact reason you want to play for set pieces?

I’ve noticed that changing the tempo changes TI, but I didn’t think it would change it so much that it would compound the effects of what I had set in place originally. Would a balanced or cautious mentality go with what I want to accomplish for my offense? 
 

And for the set pieces, I figured it was another way to squeeze more goal scoring opportunities. Does having that selected mess with my intended tactics??

Thanks for the response tho man!

[Experienced Defender]

14 minutes ago, Lurking Manager said:

What exactly should I look for as to how I can improve or ensure a higher chance of that shot becoming a goal in the future? What could I provide here to get more insight?

You need to watch the highlights of all the shots taken by your players in a given match. These highlights will show you:

- what kind of action preceded the shot in question (was it a cross, short pass, long pass, through ball, set piece, deflection etc...)

- where the shot was taken from (inside the box, outside the box, central position, angled position)

- what type of shot it was (header or by foot)

- how favorable was the shooter's position when he took the shot (1v1 with keeper, under pressure, surrounded by defenders etc...)

Without watching and analyzing these situations, you cannot know how many of your shots were real chances, and how many were poor ones. The mere match stats will not give you sufficiently relevant info. 

32 minutes ago, Lurking Manager said:

Can you expand a bit more on how my roles are contradicting what I want to accomplish?

Not only roles (and duties) but also instructions. First, your setup of roles and duties is pretty much conservative - with neither fullbacks nor midfielders providing any meaningful penetration. Then your instructions such as direct passing, high tempo and pass into space favor fast and direct transition of the ball from defense to attack - especially when coupled with a high mentality (such as Positive in this case). Which is okay if you want to play tight and disciplined defensive football with counter-attacks as its main attacking weapon. But in that case, you should play with a deeper LOE (or at least standard), not higher. Plus, the 4231 as a formation is not an ideal choice for such type of football.

However, you said it's not what you want. Instead, you want this: 

45 minutes ago, Lurking Manager said:

You’re correct that I want to control the game and apply pressure throughout and keep the opposition on their half of the field as much as possible

If so, then you first need to decide what exact style of control-oriented football you want to play. Patient possession? Or progressive possession? Or fast and aggressive attacking football (similar to Liverpool under Klopp)? Of course, always take into account the quality and abilities of your players. Because you may want them to play a certain style of football, but if they do not have what it takes - you are most probably going to struggle. 

 

52 minutes ago, Lurking Manager said:

My reasoning behind the direct passing style is because the players have great passing, vision, technique, anticipation and off the ball. With those attributes I was under the impression they’d be better at moving the ball into dangerous areas quicker and effectively

Okay, but then you need to either create space for your advanced players so that they can take advantage of those quick direct passes or send more players forward to try and overload the opposition in the sense of numerical advantage. The former - as explained above - requires a deeper LOE (and good compactness in defense). Whereas the latter can entail too much risk if you neglect defensive stability, especially when you play in a top-heavy formation such as 4231.

1 hour ago, Lurking Manager said:

I guess I’m going for quality over quantity in terms of possession

If you want to achieve the quality (as opposed to quantity) of possession, then you need to play what I call progressive possession football. 

 

1 hour ago, Lurking Manager said:

Would short passing and lower or standard tempo be more in line with that?

Here you need to understand the importance of mentality. The higher the mentality - the more adventurous and willing to take risks your players will be when attacking, and the more aggressive when defending (with all else being equal). And vice versa. Therefore. shorter passing under a higher mentality will be more progressive than shorter passing under a lower mentality (even though the nominal position on the bar is identical). The same is true for tempo, width, pressing intensity, DL, LOE and other instructions. 

 

1 hour ago, Lurking Manager said:

Would a balanced or cautious mentality go with what I want to accomplish for my offense? 

Definitely not cautious. Balanced - maybe? But for what you want to achieve, I think the Positive mentality is the optimal choice. What you need to change/tweak/adjust is the setup of roles and duties and certain instructions (in the first place passing). 

 

1 hour ago, Lurking Manager said:

And for the set pieces, I figured it was another way to squeeze more goal scoring opportunities. Does having that selected mess with my intended tactics?? 

If you have a good record from set pieces, then you can use them as an extra weapon. But you'll get a certain amount of set pieces anyway, so the PFSP instruction may not be necessary. Because it can - and will - affect other aspects of your play (your players will sometimes look to win a set piece even if they have better options, such as shooting, passing, crossing, dribbling etc.). I personally use the PFSP only if my players are exceptionally good at scoring from set piece situations or when I want to waste time in the closing stage of a match. 

[Lurking Manager]

2 hours ago, Experienced Defender said:

You need to watch the highlights of all the shots taken by your players in a given match. These highlights will show you:

- what kind of action preceded the shot in question (was it a cross, short pass, long pass, through ball, set piece, deflection etc...)

- where the shot was taken from (inside the box, outside the box, central position, angled position)

- what type of shot it was (header or by foot)

- how favorable was the shooter's position when he took the shot (1v1 with keeper, under pressure, surrounded by defenders etc...)

 

Gotcha. I’ll look over that and take note.

 

2 hours ago, Experienced Defender said:

Not only roles (and duties) but also instructions. First, your setup of roles and duties is pretty much conservative - with neither fullbacks nor midfielders providing any meaningful penetration. Then your instructions such as direct passing, high tempo and pass into space favor fast and direct transition of the ball from defense to attack - especially when coupled with a high mentality (such as Positive in this case). Which is okay if you want to play tight and disciplined defensive football with counter-attacks as its main attacking weapon. But in that case, you should play with a deeper LOE (or at least standard), not higher. Plus, the 4231 as a formation is not an ideal choice for such type of football.

Which roles would help with providing penetration in the midfield? Also, which formation would you suggest to play the progressive press style you mentioned? The Klopp style of football sounds interesting as well. 
 

2 hours ago, Experienced Defender said:

The higher the mentality - the more adventurous and willing to take risks your players will be when attacking, and the more aggressive when defending (with all else being equal). And vice versa. Therefore. shorter passing under a higher mentality will be more progressive than shorter passing under a lower mentality (even though the nominal position on the bar is identical).

Got it. I’ll try the next 3 games with shorter pressing with positive mentality and give those a closer look afterwards. Fortunately it’s still early enough in the season where the players are still getting used to formations.

 

[Experienced Defender]

9 hours ago, Lurking Manager said:

Which roles would help with providing penetration in the midfield?

Depends on the system. The 4231 is tricky because you cannot be too adventurous with CMs (because the system is top-heavy and without a DM, so CMs have to be defensively responsible). You can try with one holding CM and the other being more of a runner, but not on attack duty  (BBM for example). That would require the fullback on his side to be more conservative (FBsu, IWBde, WBde), whereas the other fullback should be allowed to get forward more to provide width in the attacking third, as well as occasional natural overlaps (FB on attack or WB on support). You can also play the lone striker in a role that drops deeper (F9 or DLFsu) and pair him with a more attack-minded AMC that will look to take advantage of the space the striker create (ideally SS, or AM on attack as the "softer" version). 

Just to give you an example:

F9/DLFsu

IWsu           SS/AMat            Wat

DLPsu      BBM

FBat   CDde  CD/BPDde   IWBde

9 hours ago, Lurking Manager said:

Also, which formation would you suggest to play the progressive press style you mentioned?

Not progressive press, but progressive possession football. 4141dm wide (a.k.a. 4123 wide) is an ideal formation for this style, because it's well-balanced and offers more options than 4231. 

 

9 hours ago, Lurking Manager said:

The Klopp style of football sounds interesting as well

Yes, it does. But to play that style of football, you really need the special type of players (just think of Liverpool's midfield, they are beasts). Sevilla is a good team, but I fear still not good enough to play the Klopp-ball without too much risk. Even Klopp himself has toned it down a bit compared to a couple of seasons ago. 

[Lurking Manager]

So I went back and examined the shots that my striker had, and I was surprised as to how many of those 11 were actual legit chances. Of those 11 shots on target, 5 were freekicks (couple close ones but otherwise safe handling for the keeper), 3 were headers (poor ones), and only 3 were legit goal scoring opportunities. One of them was a shot from a tight angle with two defenders on him. The other two were legit chances where he had proper space and a wide open goal in front of him and he sent the ball into the back of the net. In reality he had 3 opportunities, 2 of which he converted.  Thank you for pointing that out to me, I'll be sure to do that from now on. 

 

8 hours ago, Experienced Defender said:

Depends on the system. The 4231 is tricky because you cannot be too adventurous with CMs (because the system is top-heavy and without a DM, so CMs have to be defensively responsible). You can try with one holding CM and the other being more of a runner, but not on attack duty  (BBM for example). That would require the fullback on his side to be more conservative (FBsu, IWBde, WBde), whereas the other fullback should be allowed to get forward more to provide width in the attacking third, as well as occasional natural overlaps (FB on attack or WB on support). You can also play the lone striker in a role that drops deeper (F9 or DLFsu) and pair him with a more attack-minded AMC that will look to take advantage of the space the striker create (ideally SS, or AM on attack as the "softer" version). 

That's currently how I have my 4-2-3-1, 1 CM on defensive duty and the other as my DLP. Been thinking about tinkering the other midfielder so I'll try that BBM. 

It's funny because I have one fullback who isn't that great at crossing or contributing to the attack but solid defensively, and another who can do both. So I'll tweak that. 

With my 4-3-3 I had my center striker as a F9 and the other two as AFs. It was beautiful to watch. My striker definitely has the attributes to play as a F9 so I'll give that a go as well.

Thanks for all the information man. It was real helpful, especially the part about contradicting instructions. It really made me look at my tactic and think about what I'm instructing the players to do.