krownroyal83 Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 The Draft lottery is broken. Teams finishing in certain spot are winning the lottery way more they should. Although these are small sample sizes trends are emerging. Here is currently the odds of winning the first overall pick depending on where you finish in the standings. 30th 20.00% 29th 13.50% 28th 11.50% 27th 9.50% 26th 8.50% 25th 7.50% 24th 6.50% 23rd 6.00% 22nd 5.00% 21st 3.50% 20th 3.00% 19th 2.50% 18th 2.00% 17th 1.00% In test one I simulated the the Draft lottery 20 times. I would sim ahead one day to draft lottery (June 14th) find out the winner and exit the game without saving and repeating this 20 times. Here are my findings for test one. Buffalo finished in 30th place and thus had a 20% chance of winning. They managed to win the lottery 9 times for 45% win-rate. 2.25x higher then they should have but like i said small sample size. However the team finishing 27th with only 9.5% odds (New Jersey) also won 9 times for a 45% win-rate and over 4.5x higher then they should have. The remaining 12 teams won the lottery twice. Florida (21st) and Edmonton (25th) So in test one the 30th and 27th ranked teams combined to win the lottery 18 out of 20 times or 80% which is about 3x more likely they they should have won. In test two i did the same think but started a new season and once again simmed to the draft lottery 20 times. Here are the results for test two. In test two the last place 30th ranked team (Winnipeg) won the lottery only once out of a possible 20 times. Which was at a rate of 4x less then they should have. 29th ranked (Buffalo) won six times for 30% of the time. 25th ranked Vancouver which on any given draw as a 25th ranked team would only have a 7.5% chance of winning won 10 times including six wins in a row for a 50% win rate. And finally the 17th place team (Columbus) which had only a 1% shot at winning the lottery won 3 times! So like i said these are small sample sizes and won't be totally 100% accurate but it's in my opinion that the lottery system is broken. I'm hoping that it will be fixed because although not a big deal why have the lottery system in the game to begin with if it's not going to work the way it should. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
batdaddy Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 As was mentioned on another site...the lottery is changing for 2015-16 so not likely going to do much with the percentages at this time. But...from what I recall having heard from Riz...unless a sample size for the draft lottery is monsterous...the #s are the #s and will not be perfect. A poll was run on TBL in a challenge and I believe there were 30 responses for the first draft lotto in the Flyers challenge...I believe the last place team won the lottery something like 21% of the time, and that some of the other numbers were not good, but the last place team won it almost exactly the right number of times. There will always be some variance...always...as each time the lottery is redone it resets to the original percentage chance of a slot winning the lottery, it does not take into account that someone won the last one and then have its chances decreased. Individual event each and every time it is done...so its hard to look at the stats and think they are going to be any closer than they are to reality Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nino-33 Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Seems there might be an issue.....I wonder about running 20 tests of the same starting point/save and whether that can affect the results (as you're not actually testing the results from 20 different games, but rather testing 20 different results from the same game.....not saying that makes a difference, but I do wonder) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
krownroyal83 Posted August 31, 2015 Author Share Posted August 31, 2015 I wondered that too Nino but i didn't care enough to try it over 20 different games. My thinking was that it shouldn't effect it but it very well could. And Batdaddy i posted this here at the same time as i posted it on the other site so i wasn't aware that Riz would not be making changes to the lottery percentages to fix it, assuming it needed fixing because like you said the lottery is changing for 2015-16 season. If there is a problem with it i don't mind waiting just as long as it's corrected for the 2015-16 season. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nino-33 Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 I wondered that too Nino but i didn't care enough to try it over 20 different games. Understandable! HaHaEven if EHM was my full time job I still wouldn't have the time to look into everything like I'd like to! I totally get it, and regularly feel the same way! HaHa Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
krownroyal83 Posted August 31, 2015 Author Share Posted August 31, 2015 There are certainly quite a few things that need fixing/tweaking with this game that's for sure. Don't get me wrong, even from the start of EA to now it's almost like a whole new game. Well to me anyway. With the exceptions of rosters and the downloadable content from the community Riz works on this game by himself doesn't he? It's a shame more people can't focus on this game but that's business i guess. As long as the game continues to grow i'll be happy. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
batdaddy Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Seems there might be an issue.....I wonder about running 20 tests of the same starting point/save and whether that can affect the results (as you're not actually testing the results from 20 different games, but rather testing 20 different results from the same game.....not saying that makes a difference, but I do wonder) THis is what was done in the Flyer challenge....although it was with several different people and some different transactions between the start date and the draft. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Staff Riz Remes Posted September 4, 2015 SI Staff Share Posted September 4, 2015 The draft lottery system is coded into the game by modelling it pretty much the same way as the real life lottery is setup. This means that by taking only a small sample of say 20 attempts, you are unlikely to get the same distribution of the pick order as the basic chance percentages indicate as that is the nature of the lottery system and the randomness. A good point raised above is that the results of one draft lottery are not in any way affected by the results of other lotteries. So if by chance the 17th place team wins the draft once, they still have the same 1% chance the following year and it is not impossible for them to win it twice in a row. Yes, it is unlikely but with a small enough sample size you can get weird results. The actual lottery system doesn't just pick a random number out of 100 and decide the winning team by looking at the percentages, which would be the simple way to model it. The actual system is way more complicated (you can read about it online, it's all public info) but boils down to having random combination of numbers out of 1000 possible combinations drawn, with each team involved in the lottery having been assigned a certain pool of those combinations based on the percentage chances based on their finishing position (200 combinations out of 1000 to the last place team = 20% chance). The game models this in a similar method, by assigning the 1000 combinations by random to the teams involved and then picking the winning combination at random. Which ever team was assigned the winning combination, wins the draft. Just for kicks, as I was going to look at the implementation of the next year's draft lottery system today, I quickly tested the current system while I was at it and here are the results: With 1,000 runs, the finish position, number of times that position won the lottery and that number in percentage: 30 237 23.70% 29 146 14.60% 28 119 11.90% 27 93 9.30% 26 76 7.60% 25 62 6.20% 24 57 5.70% 23 49 4.90% 22 37 3.70% 21 37 3.70% 20 35 3.50% 19 23 2.30% 18 18 1.80% 17 11 1.10% Same test with 10,000 runs, the finish position, number of times that position won the lottery and that number in percentage: 30 2006 20.06% 29 1331 13.31% 28 1157 11.57% 27 937 9.37% 26 845 8.45% 25 736 7.36% 24 677 6.77% 23 566 5.66% 22 537 5.37% 21 337 3.37% 20 311 3.11% 19 265 2.65% 18 176 1.76% 17 119 1.19% As you see, the more times you run the lottery, the closer the actual results are compared to the basic percentage chances given by the league. Running the same test only 20 times can give a lot more variation in the results, due to the way the actual lottery system is setup. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
batdaddy Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 Awesome Riz. THanks Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
spuv469 Posted September 5, 2015 Share Posted September 5, 2015 Hey, I also noticed after this update the frequency of getting fired has increased compared to previous versions. It becomes unrealistic, especially when you get fired in few months after starting. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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