weasel65 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Playing latest version, 1.02, and am heading into the 2016 draft. My team finished 29th, the Canucks finished 21st and Coyotes 30th. Lottery results come up, Vancouver gets first pick (that is 2.7% chance of that happening). I hate Vancouver, reload game (complete shut down with no save and restart), run the date, Vancouver gets first pick. So ran an experiment, run the lottery 10 times to see the results. And the results: Coyotes with a 25% chance never get first pick, Panthers with 18.8% (me) never get first pick, Vancouver, with 2.7% chance got the first pick 8 times, the others were even lower teams. So something isn't correct here. Is anyone else seeing this? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
weasel65 Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 So after posting my question I ran the lottery 10 more times, Vancouver (21st, 2.7% chance of winning) and Buffalo (22nd, 3.6% chance) are the only teams that won the lottery. If EHM isn't using he NHL lottery ball system, then how are they doing it because it isn't working. Standings: Lottery results after complete quit with no save and reload in order (ignore bottom Panthers and trash save): Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Staff Riz Remes Posted December 18, 2015 SI Staff Share Posted December 18, 2015 EHM uses a pretty detailed simulation of the actual ball based draft lottery system, however loading the same save on the same day just before the draft lottery again and again may affect the results when testing it like this due to the random generator initialisation. There have been numerous tests run on the system and the draft lottery itself does work as intended. I'll see if there is something that can be done about the draft day randomization though for the next update. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
weasel65 Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 I also tried using "go on vacation" and in that instance the Hurricanes (28th) won it every time with a 14.2% chance. That lottery ball the NHL uses is nuts, I don't see how it is better than the bottom teams going into a new points pool and fighting it out for the first pick (something the NHL said is too complicated for the average fan to understand). Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
morsy Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I had the same problem (http://community.sigames.com/showthread.php/424549-15-0-2b-TBL-7-3-DB-Draft-lottery-broken). As Riz said, it's because your save is too close to the draft lottery. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Staff Riz Remes Posted December 23, 2015 SI Staff Share Posted December 23, 2015 I've adjusted the draft lottery for the next update a bit so that it will no longer matter if you are just re-loading the same save on the lottery day or playing through the lottery day normally, so the results will be independent of this and will vary more even if you just re-load the same save from the same day over and over again. Technically this was not a bug as such, since the lottery itself works as designed but seeing as a lot of people seem to want to re-do the lottery from a save on the same day over and over again expecting different results, it will be changed in the next update. Edit: You'll find the test results and more information on how the lottery simulation runs from this thread: http://community.sigames.com/showthread.php/432368-The-Draft-Lottery-Is-Broken Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
weasel65 Posted December 27, 2015 Author Share Posted December 27, 2015 I have just finished the 2019 draft lottery, haven't reloaded since the Canucks won the lottery. To date the last place team has never won the first pick, it is always the 21-23 place team. While those test results, after 10,000 runs show better results, the fact remains that after a single run it is always the 21st place team winning the lottery. Well, the fact remains for my game anyway. All my lotteries have been run without a reload since and no save anywhere near the lottery date, once June rolls around I normally sim 4 day blocks to speed things along and save once per month. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Staff Riz Remes Posted December 28, 2015 SI Staff Share Posted December 28, 2015 With a small enough sample size, it is very easy to get weird looking results for the draft lottery. So taking the results from just 4 drafts (2016 to 2019) it is highly likely that the results won't reflect the distribution of the actual probabilities perfectly. It's just the nature of the randomness in play. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
weasel65 Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 I have just finished the 2023 draft and to date the only teams to win the lottery have been 21-23 position. That is 8 lotteries of incredible luck for the teams in those positions. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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