Closing the Gap (League Simulation Project)

Closing the Gap (League Simulation Project)

I recently saw a picture of someone's game about 20 years in the future, and i was alarmed at what i saw, only four sides from outside the top division of england were present.

(relative to season 10/11) I accept that for many this is not a big issue, but this has been a constant annoyance for me when both playing and holidaying in Football Manager in the past and it appears to be the same today. For me Football Manager far surpasses any other management game with its realism but for me, this is one of the game's remaining problems/inaccuracies so i thought it was a about time some experimentation and editing took place in order to improve the the chance of other sides getting their chance, and i share these results with you.

Some of the changes in this project will not take on realistic values as it appears when using entirely realistic prize money and tv money in combination with reputation the results are less than desirable.

Past Season's and different teams:

Below is some investigating i have done showing the number of different teams within England's top tier through various years compared to the 2010/11 season.

2000/01 - 20 Teams - 11 Current 9 Different

1990/91 - 20 Teams - 9 Current 11 Different

1980/81 - 22 Teams - 12 Current 10 Different

1970/71 - 22 Teams - 13 Current 9 Different

1960/61 - 22 Teams - 16 Current 6 Different

1950/51 - 22 Teams - 15 Current 7 Different

A recent simulation using default data in the 2020/21 Season where a measely 2 different teams existed, and might i add both were relegated at the end of the season.

Default Data - 2020/21 - 20 Teams 18 Current 2 Different

Take note that the constantly changing face of football since its creation hasn't damaged the chance of change. It is still quite common in the modern day for teams to stay up for more than a single season, albeit with a tough fight.

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The Tests

Date: 07/11/2010

Database: England/Conference National & Upwards/Small Database/Fake Players

Changes Made:

Reputation of english clubs set to Historical accumulative reputation (loosely based on clubs history, fanbase and titles won, though the exact number and accuracy is not that important)

TV Money and parachute payments axed from premier league

Prize money for Championship upped considerably, £40M for promoted teams, £1.5m for most others

League reputation of championship downwards upped considerably.

Results:

2020/21 - 20 Teams - 10 Current 10 Different - Premier League

Date: 10/11/2010

Database: England/Conference Regional & Upwards/Large Database/Real Players

Changes Made:

Reputation of english clubs set to Historical accumulative reputation (loosely based on clubs history, fanbase and titles won, though the exact number and accuracy is not that important)

Parachute payments axed from premier league/ TV & Prize money restored

League reputation of championship downwards upped considerably.

Results:

2020/21 - 20 Teams - 12 Current 8 Different - Premier League

Though 8 may be less, it has allowed for the league to still take on a largely reaslistic role by having the tv money back and the proper prize money, and it is always possible that if i ran this again that more or less than 8 teams would be present.

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Realistic fluctuation of relegated teams occured. Occasionally the stronger teams would return to the premier league if finances were stable. In other cases like in the real world however, some teams deteriorated from financial ruin, an extreme example was Sheffield Wednesday that collapsed heavily and ended up in the Blue Square North division. Historical decent reputation teams such as AFC Wimbledon (rep based on Wimbledon FC) and Luton Town, who played in the Championship in the 20/21 season.

I invite all of you to take part in this experiment so that we may be able to strike the most realistic balance.

Very interesting idea, as we all know quite a few top clubs are gossly overspending, I wouldnt be suprised if IRL the future is not much different to one predicted in FM where top teams collapse and end up a few divisions down.

I think IRL the future is in teams who are financially solid in then long term, rather than backed in the short term.

This has inspired me to maybe do some experiments one day, after my current databases are done, so keep up the good work!

A really interesting post. I noticed a similar trend in the alternate reality English league structure that I am developing, so I may well take on board some of the findings from here in order to mix things up a little more.

Little Update, been making a few more changes, added tv money back in and no specific promotion money, all that remains is significantly upped club rep, whether or not that has made much difference i don't know since swindon and huddersfield got into the top division and peterborough for a few seasons, parachute payments remain non-existent, thus many premier league teams fall hard on relegation. They sometimes remaining in strong contention for a return and sometimes being saddled by big debt and points deductions, in other words the fall HURTS. League reputation has been upped quite a bit so the championship and subsequent lower divisions are not too far apart, they are still unlikely to get big name players but the chance of a team staying up could be significantly increased

Notable features of my experiment (League Rep):

Premier Division - 180

Championship - 160

I did up the league rep of the major leagues second tiers likewise, but have not been taking a look at them specifically. Latest test with real prize money and tv money added.

The results yielded in my latest test accurate as of the 2020/21 season.

2020/21 - 20 Teams - 12 Current 8 Different - Premier League

This result is reasonable and a big improvement, Swindon managed to stick around for 6 seasons so far i think, everton had a huge collapse also which was quite notable, dropped down to league one Leeds Style (as much as i hate to say it), did get back up to the championship though if i remember correctly.

nine_iron = Quite a few teams during my tests have fallen on hard times, i am considering upping league one's rep, since it isn't all that difficult to fall into these days, there are alot of Premier League clubs lingering around the top-to middle area of the championship.

Super Bladesman = The one main problem i find with the game is that alot of results are based purely on reputation it would seem, like those last day scrambles to get out of the relegation places, and interestingly even if a side from the championship is showered in money and buys alot of players they can still end up finishing dead last almost as if it is hardcoded at times, nevertheless these changes seem to be a bit of a fix.

Off-Topic question = I made a fictional nation for FM2010 and converted it over to FM2011, everything seemed fine except for having to do the changes to bring it up to pace with the current game, so i saved, only to reopen the file and none of the players were assigned to their clubs, that none of the clubs were assigned to leagues, cities not assigned to nation etc. Any idea of how to fix this or how it may have occured, thanks.

I made a fictional nation for FM2010 and converted it over to FM2011, everything seemed fine except for having to do the changes to bring it up to pace with the current game, so i saved, only to reopen the file and none of the players were assigned to their clubs, that none of the clubs were assigned to leagues, cities not assigned to nation etc. Any idea of how to fix this or how it may have occured, thanks.

Was it "The Nation of Leeds"?

Nope, it was a fictional country named Englandia, some parrallel universe where england had a nearby island neighbour that was an example of the best in football, was a project i started a while back and worked on and off with for a while, so it would be a shame if it is all messed up, i could try uploading it, but i am not sure how it would be possible to fix the problem

Just an update and a bit of a ramble, changed tv money of championship to be closer to premier, and lowered championship rep to 140 to premier league 180 - though based on reality i would doubt the premier is that strong at the current moment in time, the result of this change was at the ten-year mark there was a change of 7 teams, still decent but quite worrying that many of the teams that did get into the premier league hardly strengthened sufficiently in a 6, 7, 8 year period, many still being relegation fodder a few years after promotion, which i think is down to in part the lack of strengthening ai, often buying players of similar or lower quality to what they currently have.