The Demise of Southampton F.C. - An AI Experiment

(I am doing this on FM08 by the way, as I don't own FM09)

A simple experiment. Who is to blame for the demise of Southampton F.C.? The club, in financial turbulence since their departure from the Premier League, have had boardroom battles, manager changes, and today, possible point deductions. But is it the chairmen or the managers at fault? I’ll be looking at numerous individuals, plus a couple of ‘new’ introductions.

First off, the chairmen. Southampton fans mostly blame Rupert Lowe (including myself) for what has happened but are they right to do so? Are others, such as Leon Crouch and Michael Wilde to blame? I’ll be testing those three out, but also I’ll put in a club legend in as chairman, Lawrie McMenemy, to see whether the players, and managers respond to the fact he is a fan favourite. And then finally, some generic characters. Two types of chairmen. The first will be a patient chairman, and has little interference. And then we’ll have the complete opposite, an impatient chairman who won’t wait for success, and one that will constantly meddle in the manager’s business. All these chairman will have the current staff setup with them, so Mark Wotte will start as manager for all of them.

Then, the managers. All the managers over the years will be included. Mark Wotte, obviously, plus Jan Poortvliet. Others including Nigel Pearson, Jason Dodd/John Gorman partnership, George Burley, Harry Redknapp, Steve Wigley, Paul Sturrock, and finally, Gordon Strachan. Likewise with the chairmen, a club legend, Matt Le Tissier, will be in charge as well. Will his God status in Southampton bring back the fans, and get performances out of his players? Or will his lack of managerial experience be a downfall? But the most important question is how much they contributed to the demise? Also, like with the chairmen, we’ll have a nicey-nicey manager and a ruthless one to test alongside them. Which one will fare the best, and the worst. Will any of them get sacked, or lead Southampton to relegation? Or will any lead Southampton to the promised land?

Then, we will try to get the best and possible results, using the chairman that fared the best with the manager that fared the best, and the chairman that fared the worst and the manager that fared the worst.

Obviously, the players will have some responsibility, but for the purposes of this experiment, they will be ignored.

What will stay the same?

When testing chairmen, they will be the sole person on the board. Nobody else, just them. The current staff setup will stay the same. The finances will also stay the same.

When testing managers, the setup of the backroom staff will remain the same, and the chairman (who I shall create a new person called Mark Fry) will also stay the same, unless of course there is change in the boardroom. Finances will stay the same as well.

The first person up is Rupert Lowe. How the season went will be posted tomorrow

Nice idea this

As I Pompey fan I hope they fail on all accounts

Great idea. As a Saints fan i'll be keeping a close eye on this.

I love this idea, but you forgot one possibility, maybe they just failed because they actually suck. I suppose in this case we will just see them fail in all the games.

Great idea I love the experiments and will watch.

Cracking idea, one more suggestion - see how Southampton do if they are still at the Dell and not saddled with St Mary's debt.

Dafuge, if someone reported me for what I said then they need to unwrap themselves from their cotton wool and head out into the real world. Maybe then they will realise that I meant nothing at all by it and, in the grand scheme of things, what I said isn't actually that bad. It is regularly shouted on the terraces.

I've made one alteration to the experiment, and that is when testing chairmen, there will be no manager starting at the club. This is so we can give them a bit more of the blame if they get the manager appointment completely wrong, or correct.

I might just do the Dell thing as well Martin, thanks for pointing that out

Rupert Lowe - Season 1

Our first guinea pig is Rupert Lowe. Became chairman after taking over the club in 1996, and led Southampton from The Dell to St. Mary’s Stadium, which is the reason for the majority of the debt on the club. Despite Southampton’s 2003 FA Cup Final, just 2 years later, the club was relegated, and it turned from there. Protests from the fans led to his departure in 2006.

His stat of 13 for Interference is one that may lead to a couple of interventions from Lowe, and his 10 for Patience may see him act if the club don’t do well. With a poor 4 for resources, that is made up with 18 in Business.

The club start on -£6M to represent the overdraft the club currently have. That’s as well as the £24M debt the club have on the stadium.

August-December

Without a manager at the club, his first task was to hire goalkeeping coach Vic Bettinelli. Eventually, he did hire a manager, and Paul Ince, determined to put behind his Blackburn nightmare, got the job. With 16 for controversy, expect lots of mind-games comments, but interestingly enough, 16 for Pressure may be useful if Southampton are lingering in the drop zone. Will he be good enough though? Time will tell. Ince also added scouts Per Anderson and John Richards to the setup, and physio Simon Webster.

In the Summer, not much transfer activity. With the financial situation, an offer of 400K was accepted for Lloyd James, but he rejected their offer. Finally, an offer of 425K from Sheff Utd and an improved contract offer paved his way to Yorkshire, and Simon Gillett joined Hull for 100K. Following that, Anthony Pulis joined Exeter on loan and Tommy Forecast joined Gillingham on loan. Ince did bring in West Brom defender Jared Hodgkiss on loan, but that was the only signing made.

On the field, it all started poorly. A 3-0 defeat to Norwich and a penalty exit to Cheltenham in the League Cup were the results. Ince turned it round, with 3 wins in their next 5. They did get as high as fifth, but a poor run of form at Christmas saw Southampton 12th going into the new year.

http://i43.tinypic.com/2py8i80.jpg

January-May

On the transfer front, Southampton brought in Swedish U21 defender Mikael Lustig, and then spent 850K on Patrick Clegg from Falkirk and Alex Bruce from Ipswich. Youngster Matej Rondos left the club for 14k to join Leyton Orient, and Crystal Palace snapped up Oliver Lancashire for 28K.

The poor form in the league continued, winning just one league game in January. In the FA Cup, wins against Bury and Watford gave some hope, but, with the team in 16th place, Rupert Lowe’s patience snapped, and out went Ince.

Three days later, recently sacked Crystal Palace boss Neil Warnock was hired.

He allowed Oscar Gobern to leave on loan to Dagenham and Redbridge, while also allowed Lukas Stiklakis to join Southport on a free transfer.

Despite him getting off to a poor start with defeat to Watford, and an FA Cup 5th Round 4-1 exit at Wigan, the team’s league form did improve, and he got as high as 9th. But towards the end, the team’s form dipped, and after a 4-0 defeat to Ipswich, Southampton ended in 15th place.

http://i42.tinypic.com/141t9ua.jpg

Finances: On 31st May, the club had £5,860,024.

Review

It looked like he had made a good appointment with Paul Ince as Southampton were lingering in and around the play-offs. However, after some poor form, Rupert Lowe sacked him. Maybe a little rash if you ask me. Neil Warnock turned the team’s fortunes around briefly, and they finished only a couple of places above where Paul Ince was sacked from.

Very interesting experiment, I'm going to follow this one.

Looks like a poor initial choice from Lowe... Warnock would probably do well tho.

Season 2

August-December

Southampton were much more active in the transfer window. Spending a combined total of £3.6M, they brought in Miguel Angel Llera from the MK Dons, Darren Barr from Falkirk, Bruno Berner from Leicester, Michael Lea from Scunthorpe, David Raven from Carlisle, and Darren Carter from Preston. They also brought in Isaiah Osbourne on loan from Aston Villa. The players sold raised £1.3M, Lee Molyneux to Hibernian, Jason Euell to Bradford, Paul Wotton to Bristol Rovers, Wayne Thomas to Yeovil, Kayne McLaggon to Stoke, Lee Holmes to Sheffield United, Oscar Gobern to Burnley, Morgan Schneiderlin to Ipswich, and Jamie Hatch and Michael Lea both joined Chesterfield and Bashley on loan respectively.

On the field, things weren’t looking too good. They did start quite well, with respectable wins against Southend and Leicester, but that win was their last one for 2 months, and they spent the majority of it in the relegation zone. Just when Rupert Lowe would be mimicking Sir Alan Sugar’s words to Warnock, they recorded 5 straight victories, and going into the New Year, are currently on a 3 game unbeaten run, lying 14th in the table, 10 points clear of any danger.

In the League Cup, Southampton recorded wins against Exeter, Cardiff, and Hartlepool, to set up an away tie at Chelsea, which, inevitably, was won 3-0 by the home side.

http://i44.tinypic.com/124781j.jpg

January-May

Southampton brought in two players in the window, both of them loan deals, Jem Karacan and Mark Beevers joining the club.

Southampton allowed Ian Jones to leave for Macclesfield for 1K, while Jeffrey Imudia joined Eastleigh on loan.

On the field, the club started well with a win over York in the FA Cup, which was matched up in the 4th round with a win over Bradford, before a 5th Round replay defeat at Burnley meant their cup dream was over. In the league, some indifferent form saw them hovering around in the bottom half, but at the end, a run of form which saw them lose just 1 game in 7 saw them finish the season in a highly respectable 12th in Warnock’s first full season in charge.

http://i42.tinypic.com/2hgbnk0.jpg

Finances

Total: £8,187,432

Wage Bill: £109,171

Review

For Southampton’s standards, an excellent season. Had a decent run in the League Cup, improved on last year’s performance in the league, and the financial situation improves. However, the people that the club let on loan, the club’s main owners, all return on loan. What will Lowe/Warnock do with them next season?