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  • Exaggerated effectiveness of AI

    MatiVa

    By MatiVa

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    Hi everyone, i dont know if it's bad luck or something really changed, but I noticed the ME after the update MUCH WORSE. These are the results before the update:

    image.png.e8b95d6a2e2f26361584cf22b14824ab.png

    And these after:

    image.png.94eea9c970d5e69f6e1590294ec55855.pngI

    I understand that it is something possible, a bad streak is the most normal thing in football. But some defeats really felt strange (Burnley, Bournemouth and Everton are last in the league). Although the strangest thing I noticed is that there is a very high effectiveness of the AI players, scoring my goals with practically every shot, while my players need many shots to score the goal.

     

    I also understand that this is something that can happen, having bad luck and the opponent beating you without playing better. But that it is, practically, in every game played is really strange and frustrating. I give some examples of matches where the effectiveness of the AI was very high.

    VS. Burnley: 6 shoots, 2 on target, 2 goals with a 0,54 xG. High effectiveness of the rival.

    VS. Crystal Palace: My team's xG is 3.33 against the opponent's 1.27 and the game only ends 2-1. Again, high effectiveness of the rival and low effectiveness of my team.

    Vs PSG: Well, its PSG, a lot of top players but still, 2 shots on goal and again 2 goals. Meanwhile, the rival GK is the MVP.

    VS. Manchester United: Maybe the worst and more frustrating match. Not only the clear xG difference in my favor, but the opponent's first 4 shots were goals. From then on it didn't make much sense to continue.

    VS. Real Sociedad: 4 shoots, 2 on target and the goal on his first shot. Higher xG on my part, but another defeat.

    These are just some examples, most of the games are like this, even the ones I win or draw. And I know this may seem like a post crying about losing but it really isn't. You can win or lose, you can play well or play badly, but I think there is something that is not right here. It doesn't seem real to me that AI scores so many goals, even in matches between AI teams. It is rare to see the bottom two in the league meet and the game ends 5-4 or similar.

    Finally and to close the post, I know that football is not about merits and statistics but I think this table shows a little what I think is bad about ME.

    image.png.979a20ecca246259b9042a10ad0028ad.pngI am Arsenal, I have fewer goals in favor than expected (being the team with the most xG), I have more goals against than expected (I am almost at the level of the teams that are relegated) and I have fewer points than expected. I am literally worse in everything, something that does not happen to any AI team, that indicates that there is something strange.

    This is my second season. In the first one (and in the games I played in the current one before the update) I won games without deserving it or lost others deserving to win, but it felt more real. At this moment I notice that the AI always scores a goal for you and that my team has it almost impossible.

    With this I say goodbye, thanking you for your time in reading this. Greetings.

    Football Manager 2024 14_11_2023 21_00_30.png

    Football Manager 2024 14_11_2023 21_01_36.png

    Football Manager 2024 14_11_2023 21_02_17.png

    Football Manager 2024 14_11_2023 21_02_33.png

    Football Manager 2024 14_11_2023 21_02_49.png

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    The About Average Jake

    Haven't played for a couple of days. Logged back in after the update and this is my form.

     

    Something isn't right. I have the same issue as you. My team has forgotten how to defend and takes 4 or 5 chances to score 1 goal. 

    Football Manager Screenshot 2023.11.15 - 01.29.37.82.png

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    Mcfc1894

    Mcfc1894 211 Members+

    Posted (edited)

    if anything for me in the Beta stages the game and when it was first released  game did feel too easy if anything and im not sure they mentioned that there has been any AI changes unless im mistaken i do not think it looks too bad yes you are underachieving your XG but only by a figure of -2 yes defending has been a problem but for me it been a problem since beta stage for both me and the AI

    Edited by Mcfc1894
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    • SI Staff
    Michael Sant

    There haven't been any changes to the ME in terms of the way teams are playing. There can be spells of bad form and bad luck. There are a lot of potential reasons as to why this situation may change with your team.

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    skyzekaizo

    I would like to know, do away games apply a debuff on the attributes of my players?

    Because each away game I feel like my players suffer a drop down in mental, technical and physical attributes.

    On away games I tend to see a lots of bad decisions, errors of concentration, rushed attacks, wingers forgetting how to dribble, players taking bad first touch with 16+ first touch, lots of passes missed, intercepted or long passes that look more like clearances than through balls, and of course players with 17+ acceleration/pace that get outpaced by players with max 15 acceleration/pace.

     

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    • SI Staff
    Michael Sant

    No. Teams approach home and away games differently under the AI and so there can be differences you see in these games. The gap between attributes in general from 1-20 is much lower than you might imagine so a 15 and a 17 are very close. 

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    skyzekaizo

    hmmm, how exactly does the AI approaches matches differently in home from away games?

    Because right now everything points to a debuff in attributes, low composure playmakers, bad decisions from every players on the field, wingers that forget how to dribble, cut in and pass. Bad passes from playmakers, less runs in behind from attacking players with good OTB, players with high pace that get outpaced by turtles, midfielders and defenders either conceding fouls or shying away from tackles. Heavy first touches from highly technical players etc...

    Maybe it's just that the AI decides to punish us harder on away games and these issues were already existant during home games. But then, if a player with less than 15 pace can outpace a player with 17+ pace, and if a playmaker with 17+ anticipation, composure and decision can be pressed succesfully 7 times out of 10, then what exactly are attributes for?

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    b2khn
    On 01/12/2023 at 04:32, Michael Sant said:

    No. Teams approach home and away games differently under the AI and so there can be differences you see in these games. The gap between attributes in general from 1-20 is much lower than you might imagine so a 15 and a 17 are very close. 

    That is very interesting. Are the gap between attributes as you describe it constant are do they decrease with higher numbers?

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    Zico10

    Zico10 12 Members+

    Posted (edited)

    To me, after almost 20 years of playing FM, I can say for sure that the AI opposition team scores on average a minimum of half of their shots on target. In real life there's a shot conversion in the Premier League of around 9%, (unbelievable isn't it), yet on FM it's around in between 50% and 75%. Wolves save (deleted now) against Man City, they had 28 shots with 21 on target, final score 11-2, Nathan Ake scoring hat-trick with 3 goals from 30 yards, Akanji from 25 yards and so on, versus Liverpool, they had 23 shots, 13 on target, lost 7-1. That's where the game is at the moment, so if you want to stand a chance forget about trying to win, it's more about try to avoid shots on target and that has been my experience.

    Villa 9 shots on target , 5 goals!

    wolf.png

    Edited by Zico10
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    Anders J
    2 hours ago, Zico10 said:

    To me, after almost 20 years of playing FM, I can say for sure that the AI opposition team scores on average a minimum of half of their shots on target. In real life there's a shot conversion in the Premier League of around 9%, (unbelievable isn't it), yet on FM it's around in between 50% and 75%. Wolves save (deleted now) against Man City, they had 28 shots with 21 on target, final score 11-2, Nathan Ake scoring hat-trick with 3 goals from 30 yards, Akanji from 25 yards and so on, versus Liverpool, they had 23 shots, 13 on target, lost 7-1. That's where the game is at the moment, so if you want to stand a chance forget about trying to win, it's more about try to avoid shots on target and that has been my experience.

    Villa 9 shots on target , 5 goals!

    wolf.png

    Exactly my experience as well. The goalkeepers saving % seems too low. 

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    Zico10

    Zico10 12 Members+

    Posted (edited)

    On 19/12/2023 at 10:03, ryanboxall said:

    I refuse to accept that this has been fixed. Its not just the number of goals, its the nature of them; some observations below:

    - Average Goals scored for me per game is c. 4.2 which is way too high.

    - Clean sheets are a thing of distant memory. Whats the average of that vs real life?

    - Too many goals come from corners and penalties.

    - Even in a low scoring game, the xG is huge for both teams. Have SI compared average match xG to the average in real life?

    - Randomly, the match engine will switch favour and momentum to a team that has been getting obliterated in the match, and suddenly they can score 2 to 4 goals in a handful of minutes to draw or win the game. Happening way too often.

    Football Manager has been a game I have enjoyed for many years, so not a new player here but something is not right.

    My friend, don't get too downbeat, customers need to know that this game is like playing slot machines or roulette in a Casino; the Casino has a pre-set win percentage of around 70-80%, FM AI teams shot conversion in between 50-100%. As simple as that!

    On 01/12/2023 at 03:32, Michael Sant said:

    No. Teams approach home and away games differently under the AI and so there can be differences you see in these games. The gap between attributes in general from 1-20 is much lower than you might imagine so a 15 and a 17 are very close. 

    Ok, now, how do you explain a player with 13 speed running faster than a player with 16 speed? How SI explains that a player with 9 Finishing has better shot conversion that my striker with 16? How do SI explain to the millions of FM buyers that on average in real life, the shot conversion to goals are roughly around 10 and 12 % for top half teams (except Man City around 12-15%) and 6-10% for bottom half teams and yet on the game is around 50-100% for AI teams? On real life the average goals for PL is around 2.5 goals per match , except last season that was average 3 goals per game and in FM is around 4-5 goals?SI keeps dishing these silly explanations to the customers  just to keep them in the loop, looking for solutions when there's none. SI needs to change the game variables within the C++ program to reflect real life data.

    Edited by Zico10
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