In my saves I've seen almost every league that is played in full details contain too many goals compared to xG. So either xG is not being set high enough, or the number of goals are too high. This seems to only be for the full match engine, looking at the leagues being played in the QME looks fine xG vs goals. I've not looked directly at the numbers only comparing it to xG.
Here is the xG table for my league where the full match engine is used:
Almost every team is outscoring their xG, and almost every team concedes more than their xGa. This is how it looks in the other sub division in the same tier:
A healthy mix of over and under for both scored and conceded. Looking at the other leagues above and below show the same, all being played in the QME:
This makes me hypothesice that either the xG is too low, or the scoring is too high. And based on a visual look at the numbers, I'd say the scoring is too high. I will repeat this is for the full match engine only. The number for goals in the QME looks fine to me.
I have uploaded the save where these things can be seen. I hope this can be slightly tweaked without changing the current match engine too much, as I really enjoy how it plays out and feels currently. 
Recommended Comments