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george_nufc

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Issue Comments posted by george_nufc

  1. 1 hour ago, AllyJoseph said:

    The Saudi's are actually doing this IRL though. Jordan Henderson is getting 675k a week to play in front of 600 people. Money isn't an issue to them and I think we need to catch up in our perception of how little it matters to them.

    They bought Jota for 25m, gave him 500k a week, then decided to not register him or play him at all.

    Henderson has been interviewed since those £700k/week rumours went round and he's stated they aren't true. Other sources claim he's on around £350k/week. I agree these wage figures are absurd, but that's besides the point anyway. I'm talking about transfer fees.

    Saudi clubs appear to be paying roughly 50% over a players value IRL, but in FM we're often seeing players go to Saudi clubs for 5* their value in some cases. Look at the actual deals that went through this summer, they aren't that unreasonable.

    https://www.espn.co.uk/football/story/_/id/37884523/saudi-pro-league-transfers-2023-deals-talks

    Bids of £100m+ should only be reserved for absolute superstars (i.e. Mbappe and Salah), or younger players with huge potential.

    Al-Halil only paid €90m for Neymar. In FM I wouldn't be surprised if he went for €250m, considering Van Dijk and Varane are receiving similar bids in game.

  2. 4 minutes ago, cpfcinsights said:

    Isn't it entirely subjective, as Barnes likely overperformed last season + took a very high volume of shots? We don't really have the evidence to suggest that he will replicate that this season.

    If you look at the more advanced numbers, his xGOT was 9.8 last season - so it's possible he benefited from subpar goalkeeping on average.

    Also, tactically we don't know how the AI is using him at Newcastle and he's clearly in rotational use. He's getting 40% as his SOT % as well - which would suggest he's still a reasonable finisher.
     

    If you look at my previous post one the first page you can see Barnes is one of the highest scoring wingers in Europe over the past 4 seasons. I would assume he'd continue to produce excellent numbers in Newcastle's team given they are one of the best attacking teams in the league and should create a lot more chances than Leicester.

    image.thumb.png.a04c6f809b17fbee5c3e5d34a2dc07e1.png

    Smallen has shown he's massively outperformed his xG 3 seasons in a row now, which indicates his shooting is excellent:

    I don't want to drag this out too long for the sake of one player, but I think the evidence is clear to suggest his shooting ability is underrated as he doesn't appear to perform anywhere near this ability in-game, based off my simulations. I've probably done 20 or so 23/24 season simulations and don't recall Barnes getting 10+ league goals once whenever I've checked.

  3. 2 hours ago, Tom Elliott said:

    Once again, I would ask you to judge whether Barnes is scoring too few goals in your saves, as opposed to focusing on numbers out of 20 in isolation.

    Dribbling as an attribute is not how often a player dribbles, but rather how good they are at keeping control of the ball at speed - which Barnes is quite adept at, in my opinion.

    Regardless of the reasoning for Barnes not playing, I'm really not sure how either the Newcastle researcher or I could make any call on the player being at the level of other Newcastle players if he simply has not played football. It's one to review in the next data update, of course. :)

    Well I've been running simulations with Everton to test tactics on the new match engine and decided to review Barnes stats on the last 3 simulations.

    In all 3 seasons he's been a fringe/squad player, often behind Gordon and Murphy in the pecking order at LW and only scored a total of 10 goals (and only 4 assists) in all competitions over the 3 simulated seasons. I don't think this reflects his real life scoring ability?

    Screenshot2023-10-23at10_59_07.thumb.png.0c1eb6822b1774eafef2a1cadc6edf3d.pngScreenshot2023-10-23at11_24_26.thumb.png.1f8bc3a00f9fc2e0a2f2d102ab159d47.pngScreenshot2023-10-23at11_35_29.thumb.png.47e02edbb3bb3216217894a7c442f472.png

  4. 18 minutes ago, matt_neil41 said:

    Point one on Lewis Hall. How long have you been watching before he signed for Newcastle to know he's never played at CB or as a 10? I've watched him play at centre back and a 10 and I've barely seen him play at all compared to the Chelsea researcher who watches an incredible amount of Chelsea academy football. 

    A -8 is still an incredibly good potential. The amount of players that hit the top end of a -85 in their is not that high at all, it's a world class level and again, the researcher has seen him for a number of years.

     

    Regarindg the recruitment setup. All of the above are academy scouts and not first-team scouts and aren't included in game.

    Transfermarkt is good for reviewing player positions. According to that he's only played 3 games in those positions, I wouldn't say this makes him accomplished there? My main question is should he really be comfortable in 8 positions already?

    image.png.20df3b2baedf0191653d220e7061ddcf.png

    Regarding the academy scouts - I'm not asking for these to be added into the game, my point is Newcastle have massively invested and stepped up the youth-recruitment to the point where it's likely better than the vast majority of PL clubs outside of the Big 6. Surely 'above-average' isn't high enough?

  5. 7 minutes ago, Tom Elliott said:

    As the Leicester researcher, I'll have set the majority of Barnes' attributes as they are at the moment, so happy to chip in here.

    I'd recommend judging his attributes after you've played the game for a while - if you're seeing he's scored too few goals in your saves (or winning too few headers, etc.), please get back in touch and the Newcastle researcher can review those numbers. The attributes are designed to produce a fair and reasonable representation of the player's real life profile in the game's match engine - judging individual numbers against the 1-20 scale is not what the research is designed to achieve.

    But more generally - this is a player who took an awful lot of chances last season, missed a fair amount, scored a few others, and more often than not, didn't really do a great deal else to support his team's cause. 'His shooting is incredible' is frankly not something I would support, really, having watched him since he played in central midfield in Leicester's academy at the age of 16. A 12 for Off The Ball is in my book quite accurate, given his attacking movement and positional play is the glaring weakness in his general game, and cost Leicester a great deal both going forwards (Off The Ball) and backwards (Positioning) in the last 18 months.

    I'd also add this is a player who has scored 1 Premier League goal this season and has mostly sat on the bench behind Anthony Gordon, thus far. I think there'd be a much greater argument to rate him higher if he was actually playing regularly and/or particularly well!

    Fair points made. I obviously haven't watched him as much as you, but I've always thought he was a player who was great at running in behind and very clinical in front of goal, but doesn't have the highest technical ability outside of that. His shooting looks a level ahead the majority of other wingers in the league and I think his goal stats back him up there, which is why I suggested the buff. I agree time will tell whether he can replicate his G&A numbers in game, but I'm skeptical, let's see. My point is statistically he's pretty incredible when you compare him to other players in Europe over the past few years, especially considering he was playing for Leicester:

    image.thumb.png.a04c6f809b17fbee5c3e5d34a2dc07e1.png

    I would take his playing time with a pinch of salt however. Howe always like to slowly bed his players in, as he's done with Bruno, Botman, Gordon etc. New players generally don't start for the first month or 2.

    Barnes then had a severe foot injury at the end of September which has kept him since. He'd probably be starting more games now if he wasn't injured.

  6. Newcastle fan here, just some early thoughts and suggestions! I'm pretty happy with the player attributes from last season, but I don't agree with the stats of some of the transfers in:

    Harvey Barnes: We signed him for £38m primarily because he's a goalscoring winger. He scored 13 goals in the league last season and has scored 28 league goals in only 78 starts in the past 3 seasons, which is insane for a mid-table winger. Put him through on goal and his shooting is incredible, so I find it very strange how he only has 12 finishing & off-the-ball, and his composure has reduced to 11? A number of articles/videos have also been made showing that he doesn't really beat his man that often, but prefers to one-two around them instead, so I would definitely have this added in as a trait. He's also quite good at winning headers for a winger - Fbref have him in the 85th percentile for number of aerials won and 59th percentile for % aerials won, which suggests he should have above 10 jumping reach. I think he needs a bit of a rework.

    Lewis Hall: He's an England U21 international and was one of the brightest sparks in his appearances for Chelsea last season, scoring huge numbers with his tackles, interceptions, take-ons, chances created etc. so much so we're buying him for up to £35m. Look at his Fbref profile below. His in-game stats make him look like a lower Championship level player, which I just don't understand. In-game he is at least competent in 8 positions, some of which make no sense. He's definitely not a CB or CAM and hardly has any youth appearances there, so why is he 'accomplished' in them? This is probably eating into his CA rating as well. I'm not sure what his PA rating is just yet, but I'd expect it to be -8.5 minimum. My scouts have him 4* potential in the game, which has me concerned he's still only at -8?

    image.thumb.png.52a2078834ee9a24c7f63fab09f0e7cc.png

    Facilities:
    Newcastle currently have average training and youth facilities, adequate academy coaching, and above average youth recruitment. I can understand this under Ashley and when the new owners first took over, but they spent a lot of money improving the faciltiies and are now putting a huge focus on youth development signing players from all over the country and putting scouts in place to recuit players in all parts of the UK and worldwide. Just this summer we've signed youth players from Milan, Birmingham, Port Vale, Shrewsbury, Wolves, Southend and Oldham. We've also put together the below recruitment team already. I would encourage the facilities numbers to be revised up slightly and the recruitment to be revised up considerably based off this.

    image.thumb.png.64c5f8179552c020ca02497d67a8f1b5.png

    Expectations:
    The board expect Newcastle to finish in the CL spots this season, which is completely unreasonable IMO. I think EL, or even the conference league should be the target at best. I don't think Howe would be under any pressure if Newcastle finished 7th considering the overachievement last season, coupled with UCL football.

    I few minor suggestions for the players:

    • Isak to have 'comes deep to get the ball' trait and have him accomplished as an AML
    • Gordon's work-rate is massive, he's in the 98% percentile for tackles as a winger, I'd suggest a buff to his 14
    • Joelinton's heading (16) seems slightly high, as if he'd work as a target-man. He's extremely physical but I don't think this is one of his biggest strengths. I'd instead increase his finishing (11) slightly as he looked much better last season and maybe add the trait 'likes to round the keeper' as he did this when scoring against both West Ham and Spurs last season.
    • The recommended best XI has Targett at LB instead of Burn, and it looks as though they have a similar CA. Burn is miles ahead of Targett IRL, so I'd probably suggest a slight nerf to Targett.
    • Could review Almiron's positions. I'd argue he isn't a natural CAM now and definitely shouldn't be able to play striker.
  7. 1 hour ago, llama3 said:

    I'm not sure Diego Carlos' injury should be in-game. He got injured after the start of the season (he played 2 x PL games for Aston Villa). Considering you can collect injuries in pre-season in-game too, not sure it's fair to start with ones actually suffered after the start of the game, but especially not the start of the season.

    As far as I'm aware any injuries that occurred before the end of the transfer window are included as clubs still have time to replace these players.

  8. For Newcastle:

    Bruno should have English speaking set as good, he regularly does interviews in English now. He should also have the trait 'Likes to switch ball to wide areas' as he does this quite a lot, and 'gets forward whenever possible' as he manages to get into attacking positions even when playing as the deepest midfielder.

    Almiron should not have 10 natural fitness. He's one of the fittest players in our squad. His running stats are massive and he rarely misses a game at all, I can't see him declining anytime soon. He should also have the 'avoids using weaker foot' trait, he's gets in brilliant crossing opportunities for his right foot, yet still cuts back on his left.

    Murphy should have the trait 'Tries to lob the keeper' as he tries this all the time, to no avail.

    Joelinton should have the trait 'runs with ball often'. He's currently up there with the highest dribbles in the league, outside of the top 6, with the highest success rate (reminds me of Mousa Dembele). He should probably have higher than 14 as this is one of his biggest strengths:

    Board culture 'sign high-reputation players' is currently set as desired. To be honest I don't think this is the culture at all. We've been avoiding the big name players in favour of signing young talent for the future, i.e. Bruno, Botman, Isak - who weren't huge names at the time of signing. We've signed a number of lower reputation signings such as Pope, Burn, Targett, Wood etc. who other fans turn their noses up at. I'd argue the board culture should have a slight focus on youth instead.

    The sleeve sponsorship is set as £5m/season in game, however the sleeve sponsorship (Noon) has been confirmed to be £7.5m.

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