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  • Penalty attribute can be objective, and I have the formula!

    BigDaddyAEL1964

    By BigDaddyAEL1964

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    While many abilities can be subjective and the result of extensive scouting and a general impression of a player's performances, the penalty kick attribute can be quite objective.

    Check out the formula I came up with:

    • A player takes X number of penalties, scores Y, misses Z. So, Y/X = the success rate. How many penalties someone has taken, scored and missed is detailed on transfermarkt.com, so we are able to easilly gather the information needed.
    • The more penalties someone takes, the more chances he has to miss some of them. It is not fair for a player A, who has taken 20 penalties without missing, to be considered a better penalty taker than a player B who has taken 50 and missed 3, just because A has a 100% success rate and B has a 94% success rate. So, each player gets 0.01 points as a bonus for every penalty he has scored, to reward players who have scored more penalties than others.
    • Given that the top attribute rating in the game is 20, the penalty taker's final rating is calculated by success rate * 20 + bonus (the result is rounded to a whole number)

    Let's see an example with Lionel Messi 🐐
    Penalties taken: 140
    Penalties scored: 109
    Penalties missed: 31
    Success rate: 77.9% or 0.779
    Bonus: 1.09
    Penalty rating in FM 2024: 17
    Real life penalty rating: 0.779*20+1.09=16.67 → 17

    So we see that Messi's penalty rating in FM 2024 is pretty accurate!
    However, the same is not true for many other players. Some have received a very low rating while being excellent penalty takers, and others have a very good rating with a relatively low success rate in real life.

    I spent an entire afternoon and compiled the players who have received a Penalty rating of 17 and above in FM 2024 into an Excel spreadsheet.
    Then I added every other active player who has taken more than 30 penalties     (some prolific penalty takers are amateur players, they are included in the transfermarkt.com database but not in the game, so there is no FM 2024 rating for them).
    Finally, I added some other well-known players who I know to have taken more than 20 penalties overall, just so we have a more complete picture of how close the FM 2024 ratings are to the players' actual stats.

    The result in some cases is shocking, as there are fantastic real-life penalty takers with an in-game rating of 10, 6, 3, or even 1!
    Moreover, players with less than 10 penalties taken during their career have a rather generous rating of 18; even a player who has never taken a penalty!!!
    We also have players like Chicharito, who has a pretty good in-game rating of 15, but only 51.6% penalty success in real life!

    Here, see for yourself - I'm also attaching the actual Excel file if you want to apply filters or do whatever with it.

    Name Surname P scored P missed P taken % success Bonus FM 24 Rating Real Life Rating
    Onur Hakan  Akbulut 46 2 48 0.958 0.46 5 20
    John  Akinde 44 11 55 0.800 0.44 15 16
    Mahmoud Alaa 29 6 35 0.829 0.29 17 17
    Hasan  Al-Haydos 33 3 36 0.917 0.33 15 19
    Bader Al-Mutawa 5 2 7 0.714 0.05 18 14
    Mohammed  Al-Sahlawi 30 6 36 0.833 0.30 18 17
    Omar  Al-Somah 50 8 58 0.862 0.50 16 18
    Mirco  Antenucci 51 9 60 0.850 0.51 14 18
    Marko  Arnautović 18 2 20 0.900 0.18 16 18
    Iago Aspas 40 8 48 0.833 0.40 16 17
    Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 34 11 45 0.756 0.34 15 15
    Charlie  Austin 30 5 35 0.857 0.30 14 17
    Carlos  Bacca 34 11 45 0.756 0.34 15 15
    Tasos  Bakasetas 22 7 29 0.759 0.22 17 15
    Lewis  Baker 22 3 25 0.880 0.22 17 18
    Mario Balotelli 47 5 52 0.904 0.47 18 19
    Éver  Banega 31 8 39 0.795 0.31 14 16
    Gabriel Barbosa 41 6 47 0.872 0.41 19 18
    Hernán  Barcos 37 6 43 0.860 0.37 14 18
    Jerónimo  Barrales 29 5 34 0.853 0.29 16 17
    Abdullah  Basdas 32 1 33 0.970 0.32 - 20
    Zakaria  Beglarishvili 36 5 41 0.878 0.36 9 18
    Andrea  Belotti 34 9 43 0.791 0.34 15 16
    Wissam Ben Yedder 45 6 51 0.882 0.45 17 18
     Jerry  Bengtson 40 2 42 0.952 0.40 13 19
    Karim  Benzema 39 8 47 0.830 0.39 16 17
    Domenico Berardi 51 8 59 0.864 0.51 18 18
    Roman Bezus 13 2 15 0.867 0.13 18 17
    Claudio  Bieler 39 4 43 0.907 0.39 17 19
    Jóannes Bjartalíð 44 4 48 0.917 0.44 18 19
    Dejan  Blazevski 34 2 36 0.944 0.34 14 19
    Milan  Bojovic 32 10 42 0.762 0.32 12 16
    Miguel  Borja 32 8 40 0.800 0.32 14 16
    Mauro  Boselli 36 8 44 0.818 0.36 15 17
    Ryad Boudebouz 25 3 28 0.893 0.25 18 18
    Baghdad  Bounedjah 33 7 40 0.825 0.33 16 17
    Constantin  Budescu 35 3 38 0.921 0.35 13 19
    Airam  Cabrera 31 5 36 0.861 0.31 17 18
    Mijo  Caktas 32 11 43 0.744 0.32 14 15
    Hakan  Çalhanoğlu 31 4 35 0.886 0.31 16 18
    Daniel  Caligiuri 32 3 35 0.914 0.32 16 19
    Germán  Cano 34 8 42 0.810 0.34 15 17
    Roberto  Cappai 35 5 40 0.875 0.35 - 18
    Francesco  Caputo 30 9 39 0.769 0.30 14 16
    Oscar  Cardozo 70 11 81 0.864 0.70 15 18
    Rubén  Castro 35 7 42 0.833 0.35 15 17
    Edinson Cavani 61 14 75 0.813 0.61 16 17
    Santi Cazorla 38 3 41 0.927 0.38 16 19
    Sedat  Cengiz 31 0 31 1.000 0.31 15 20
    Dragan  Ćeran 43 4 47 0.915 0.43 14 19
    Karim  Chentouf 37 1 38 0.974 0.37 14 20
    Sunil  Chhetri 40 3 43 0.930 0.40 18 19
    - Chicharito 16 15 31 0.516 0.16 15 10
    Lazaros  Christodoulopoulos 23 2 25 0.920 0.23 15 19
    Daniel  Ciofani 39 8 47 0.830 0.39 15 17
    André Claro 6 0 6 1.000 0.06 18 20
    Massimo  Coda 30 10 40 0.750 0.30 10 15
    James  Collins 30 8 38 0.789 0.30 14 16
    Sam  Cosgrove 19 1 20 0.950 0.19 17 19
     Jason Cummings 30 4 34 0.882 0.30 15 18
    Rufat Dadashov 34 2 36 0.944 0.34 17 19
    Pereira Danilo 17 3 20 0.850 0.17 17 17
    Ciro  De Angelis 36 4 40 0.900 0.36 11 18
    Luuk  de Jong 16 8 24 0.667 0.16 12 13
    Sascha  de la Cuesta 39 4 43 0.907 0.39 - 19
    Troy  Deeney 42 7 49 0.857 0.42 18 18
    Andy  Delort  26 5 31 0.839 0.26 14 17
    Memphis  Depay 32 11 43 0.744 0.32 14 15
    Mbaye  Diagne 26 8 34 0.765 0.26 13 16
    - Diogo 33 4 37 0.892 0.33 13 18
    Federico  Dionisi 32 5 37 0.865 0.32 15 18
    Bas Dost 36 2 38 0.947 0.36 17 19
    Henrique Dourado 26 2 28 0.929 0.26 19 19
    Sebastian  Drews 32 3 35 0.914 0.32 - 19
    Jefferson  Duque 34 6 40 0.850 0.34 15 17
    Paulo  Dybala 32 5 37 0.865 0.32 16 18
    Balázs  Dzsudzsák 32 5 37 0.865 0.32 14 18
    Artem Dzyuba 33 13 46 0.717 0.33 15 15
    - Edenílson 15 2 17 0.882 0.15 18 18
    - Éder 35 2 37 0.946 0.35 14 19
    Youssef  El Arabi 51 6 57 0.895 0.51 14 18
    Abdallah  El Saeed 37 12 49 0.755 0.37 16 15
    Marvin  Ellmann 35 2 37 0.946 0.35 7 19
    Gökhan  Erdöl 34 0 34 1.000 0.34 14 20
    Radamel Falcao 52 14 66 0.788 0.52 18 16
    - Fernandão 24 6 30 0.800 0.24 17 16
    Bruno Fernandes 49 5 54 0.907 0.49 19 19
    Carlo  Ferrario 34 4 38 0.895 0.34 10 18
    Alfreð Finnbogason 29 4 33 0.879 0.29 17 18
    Francesco Flachi 36 9 45 0.800 0.36 - 16
    Emil Forsberg 31 4 35 0.886 0.31 17 18
    Kostas  Fortounis 21 8 29 0.724 0.21 14 15
    Daniel  Frahn 47 6 53 0.887 0.47 14 18
    Maureen Franco 31 9 40 0.775 0.31 15 16
    Niclas  Füllkrug 24 2 26 0.923 0.24 17 19
    Rogelio  Funes Mori 17 6 23 0.739 0.17 13 15
    Kévin  Gameiro 21 8 29 0.724 0.21 16 15
    Raúl  García 23 6 29 0.793 0.23 15 16
    Dániel Gazdag 32 1 33 0.970 0.32 18 20
    Jan  Gerbig 52 10 62 0.839 0.52 - 17
    André-Pierre  Gignac 46 8 54 0.852 0.46 15 17
    Oliveira Gilberto 22 6 28 0.786 0.22 18 16
    Olivier Giroud 32 2 34 0.941 0.32 17 19
    Jürgen  Gjasula 33 3 36 0.917 0.33 15 19
    Bafétimbi  Gomis 45 11 56 0.804 0.45 - 17
    Sören  Gonnermann 41 12 53 0.774 0.41 - 16
    Lolo González 14 0 14 1.000 0.14 18 20
    Lewis Grabban 33 10 43 0.767 0.33 14 16
    Max  Gradel 35 11 46 0.761 0.35 14 16
    Luigi  Grassi 48 7 55 0.873 0.48 14 18
    Antoine  Griezmann 22 12 34 0.647 0.22 13 13
    Vincenzo Grifo 34 5 39 0.872 0.34 17 18
    Erling Haaland 39 4 43 0.907 0.39 17 19
    Sébastien Haller 27 2 29 0.931 0.27 17 19
    Abderrazak  Hamdallah 67 9 76 0.882 0.67 13 18
    - Heberty 38 9 47 0.809 0.38 13 17
    Andy  Hebler 55 6 61 0.902 0.55 12 19
     Tomer  Hemed 32 4 36 0.889 0.32 16 18
    Peter  Heyer 35 6 41 0.854 0.35 - 17
    Guillaume  Hoarau 49 5 54 0.907 0.49 15 19
    Raphael Holzhauser 45 9 54 0.833 0.45 18 17
    Branimir  Hrgota 20 4 24 0.833 0.20 17 17
    - Hulk 97 20 117 0.829 0.97 16 18
    Mauro  Icardi 39 10 49 0.796 0.39 17 16
    Adam Idah 12 0 12 1.000 0.12 18 20
    Odion  Ighalo 26 7 33 0.788 0.26 12 16
    Borja Iglesias 36 4 40 0.900 0.36 17 18
    Josip Ilicic 30 7 37 0.811 0.30 14 17
    Dimitar Iliev 31 6 37 0.838 0.31 15 17
    Ciro Immobile 73 16 89 0.820 0.73 19 17
    Joel Infante 8 2 10 0.800 0.08 18 16
    Marcus  Ingvartsen 20 2 22 0.909 0.20 17 18
    Lorenzo Insigne 41 11 52 0.788 0.41 17 16
    Adis  Jahovic 31 3 34 0.912 0.31 16 19
    Franco  Jara 31 5 36 0.861 0.31 14 18
    Raúl Jiménez 34 2 36 0.944 0.34 19 19
    Daniel Johnson 24 2 26 0.923 0.24 18 19
    - Jorginho 41 7 48 0.854 0.41 14 17
    Willian José 22 4 26 0.846 0.22 17 17
    - Joselu 19 8 27 0.704 0.19 13 14
    Stevan Jovetić 17 6 23 0.739 0.17 15 15
    Markus Jürgenson 31 3 34 0.912 0.31 8 19
    Harry Kane 69 11 80 0.863 0.69 20 18
    Guélor  Kanga 37 2 39 0.949 0.37 15 19
    Ercan Kara 23 3 26 0.885 0.23 17 18
    Danny  Kedwell 33 6 39 0.846 0.33 - 17
    Billy  Kee 30 4 34 0.882 0.30 12 18
    Franck Kessié 32 5 37 0.865 0.32 18 18
    Wahbi  Khazri 23 6 29 0.793 0.23 13 16
    Taha Yassine Khenissi 23 2 25 0.920 0.23 18 19
    Nikolay  Komlichenko 38 6 44 0.864 0.38 13 18
    Teun  Koopmeiners 33 7 40 0.825 0.33 16 17
    Andrej  Kramarić 50 7 57 0.877 0.50 16 18
    Ivan Krstanovic 51 6 57 0.895 0.51 - 18
    Max Kruse 34 3 37 0.919 0.34 19 19
    Kodjo  Laba 30 4 34 0.882 0.30 16 18
    Alexandre Lacazette 40 8 48 0.833 0.40 14 17
    Gianluca  Lapadula 20 6 26 0.769 0.20 15 16
    Joaquín Larrivey 32 3 35 0.914 0.32 19 19
    Adam Le Fondre 63 10 73 0.863 0.63 18 18
    Steven  Lennon 34 2 36 0.944 0.34 11 19
    Robert Lewandowski 75 9 84 0.893 0.75 19 19
    Lucas Licht 11 0 11 1.000 0.11 18 20
    Marko Livaja 26 4 30 0.867 0.26 17 18
    Lisandro López 33 4 37 0.892 0.33 15 18
    Vágner  Love 38 12 50 0.760 0.38 14 16
    Romelu Lukaku 36 5 41 0.878 0.36 20 18
    Nenad  Lukic 33 5 38 0.868 0.33 14 18
    Ali  Maâloul 54 11 65 0.831 0.54 16 17
    Ali  Mabkhout 63 7 70 0.900 0.63 15 19
    Gastón  Magnetti 36 3 39 0.923 0.36 7 19
    Chris  Maguire 33 4 37 0.892 0.33 15 18
    Emin  Mahmudov 32 3 35 0.914 0.32 9 19
    Riyad  Mahrez 28 10 38 0.737 0.28 13 15
    Giorgos  Manousos 26 2 28 0.929 0.26 15 19
    Hallgrímur  Mar Steingrímsson 30 6 36 0.833 0.30 3 17
    Antonio  Marchesano 22 5 27 0.815 0.22 17 17
    João Mário 21 4 25 0.840 0.21 18 17
    Roger  Martí 23 5 28 0.821 0.23 16 17
    Andreas  Mayer 41 9 50 0.820 0.41 - 17
    Kylian Mbappé 34 8 42 0.810 0.34 18 17
    Rory  McAllister 66 9 75 0.880 0.66 13 18
    Ross  McCormack 32 11 43 0.744 0.32 15 15
    Jamie McGrath 19 1 20 0.950 0.19 18 19
    Ángel Mena 30 3 33 0.909 0.30 14 18
    Jérémy  Ménez 17 5 22 0.773 0.17 17 16
    Dries Mertens 36 6 42 0.857 0.36 16 18
    Lionel Messi 109 31 140 0.779 1.09 17 17
    Milan  Meyer 37 0 37 1.000 0.37 - 20
    Donald  Millán 44 4 48 0.917 0.44 14 19
    James Milner 30 5 35 0.857 0.30 16 17
    Luka  Modrić 22 4 26 0.846 0.22 14 17
    Marcelo  Moreno 32 6 38 0.842 0.32 14 17
    Dayro  Moreno 45 5 50 0.900 0.45 14 18
    Patrick  Mortensen 25 1 26 0.962 0.25 17 19
    Robert  Mühren 35 4 39 0.897 0.35 14 18
    Aaron  Muirhead 31 4 35 0.886 0.31 20 18
    Thomas Müller 30 8 38 0.789 0.30 13 16
    Paul  Mullin 31 10 41 0.756 0.31 14 15
    Carlos  Muñoz 19 3 22 0.864 0.19 17 17
    Luis  Muriel 22 2 24 0.917 0.22 17 19
    Vedat  Muriqi 21 3 24 0.875 0.21 15 18
    Bibars Natcho 63 9 72 0.875 0.63 18 18
    Dimitrij Nazarov 30 1 31 0.968 0.30 19 20
    Alvaro Negredo 39 8 47 0.830 0.39 16 17
    - Nenê 60 8 68 0.882 0.60 18 18
    - Neymar 74 17 91 0.813 0.74 19 17
    Lukas  Nmecha 24 4 28 0.857 0.24 17 17
    Stefan  Oerterer 37 3 40 0.925 0.37 6 19
    Jay O'Shea 30 5 35 0.857 0.30 13 17
    Mikel Oyarzábal 31 4 35 0.886 0.31 19 18
    Marco  Paixão 38 3 41 0.927 0.38 16 19
    Dani Parejo 35 12 47 0.745 0.35 18 15
    Dimitri Payet 20 7 27 0.741 0.20 18 15
    Luis  Perea 31 4 35 0.886 0.31 10 18
    Diego Perotti 27 3 30 0.900 0.27 18 18
    Bruno  Petkovic 40 8 48 0.833 0.40 16 17
    Manuel  Pflumm 33 4 37 0.892 0.33 - 18
    Krzysztof  Piątek 21 5 26 0.808 0.21 16 16
    Yago  Pikachu 24 5 29 0.828 0.24 16 17
    Brett  Pitman 42 7 49 0.857 0.42 15 18
    Lukas  Podolski 20 2 22 0.909 0.20 17 18
    Harold  Preciado 33 6 39 0.846 0.33 13 17
    Teemu  Pukki 20 6 26 0.769 0.20 17 16
    Fabio Quagliarella 41 8 49 0.837 0.41 19 17
    Sergio Ramos 30 5 35 0.857 0.30 17 17
    Giorgio  Recino 37 6 43 0.860 0.37 14 18
    Lior Refaelov 39 6 45 0.867 0.39 14 18
    - Reinaldo 24 0 24 1.000 0.24 19 20
    Almeyda Richard 30 1 31 0.968 0.30 12 20
    - Romarinho 20 2 22 0.909 0.2 15 18
    Cristiano Ronaldo 157 29 186 0.844 1.57 20 18
    Adam  Rooney 50 8 58 0.862 0.50 17 18
    Raúl  Ruidíaz 32 9 41 0.780 0.32 15 16
    Mohamed Salah 35 8 43 0.814 0.35 17 17
    Rubens  Sambueza 18 9 27 0.667 0.18 17 14
    José Sand 58 13 71 0.817 0.58 18 17
    Fábio  Santos 34 5 39 0.872 0.34 17 18
    Camilo  Sanvezzo 40 4 44 0.909 0.40 16 19
    Téji  Savanier 30 3 33 0.909 0.30 14 18
    Lawrence Shankland 26 3 29 0.897 0.26 18 18
    Sébastien Siani 18 0 18 1.000 0.18 18 20
    Gylfi Sigurðsson 33 9 42 0.786 0.33 17 16
    Santiago  Silva 32 9 41 0.780 0.32 14 16
    Scott  Sinclair 34 6 40 0.850 0.34 15 17
    Fedor  Smolov 33 6 39 0.846 0.33 12 17
    Pieros Sotiriou 21 1 22 0.955 0.21 19 19
    Diego  Souza 32 7 39 0.821 0.32 14 17
    Filip  Starzynski 42 6 48 0.875 0.42 12 18
    Dominik  Stroh-Engel 31 1 32 0.969 0.31 13 20
    Cristhian  Stuani 45 3 48 0.938 0.45 15 19
    Luis  Suárez 53 14 67 0.791 0.53 16 16
    Rodrigo  Tabata 32 2 34 0.941 0.32 15 19
    Dusan Tadic 75 16 91 0.824 0.75 17 17
    Dario  Tadic 38 6 44 0.864 0.38 12 18
    Florin Tănase 37 2 39 0.949 0.37 17 19
    Mehdi Taremi 45 8 53 0.849 0.45 17 17
    James Tavernier 55 14 69 0.797 0.55 18 16
    Lyle Taylor 28 8 36 0.778 0.28 17 16
    Luis  Tejada 41 8 49 0.837 0.41 - 17
    Tauno  Tekko 34 6 40 0.850 0.34 - 17
    Alex Telles 16 4 20 0.800 0.16 17 16
    Scott Tiffoney 0 0 0 N/A 0 18 N/A
    Ivan Toney 29 2 31 0.935 0.29 19 19
    Érick Torres 20 3 23 0.870 0.20 18 18
    Roberto  Torres 30 3 33 0.909 0.30 16 18
    Cenk  Tosun 32 2 34 0.941 0.32 17 19
    Ivan  Trickovski 35 9 44 0.795 0.35 16 16
    Alan  Trouten 49 5 54 0.907 0.49 19 19
    Enner  Valencia 34 13 47 0.723 0.34 16 15
    Ricky  van Wolfswinkel 36 12 48 0.750 0.36 16 15
    Jamie Vardy 29 7 36 0.806 0.29 17 16
    Gabriel  Vasvari 45 3 48 0.938 0.45 15 19
    Sølvi  Vatnhamar 31 5 36 0.861 0.31 17 18
    Raphael Veiga 29 5 34 0.853 0.29 19 17
    Carlos Vela 34 9 43 0.791 0.34 14 16
    Jordan Veretout 29 4 33 0.879 0.29 17 18
    Arturo Vidal 35 6 41 0.854 0.35 15 17
    - Vieirinha 16 5 21 0.762 0.16 17 15
    Jonathan  Viera 25 6 31 0.806 0.25 17 16
    Nicolas Viola 26 1 27 0.963 0.26 19 20
    Dušan Vlahović 21 3 24 0.875 0.21 18 18
    Jelle Vossen 31 6 37 0.838 0.31 18 17
    Stojan  Vranjes 32 3 35 0.914 0.32 12 19
    Liam Walker 29 3 32 0.906 0.29 18 18
    Paulista Wellington 34 3 37 0.919 0.34 17 19
    Timo  Werner 17 4 21 0.810 0.17 16 16
    Jonas  Wind 22 3 25 0.880 0.22 17 18
    Yusuf Yazıcı 8 2 10 0.800 0.08 18 16
    Eran  Zahavi 61 13 74 0.824 0.61 14 17
    Emilio Zelaya 37 4 41 0.902 0.37 15 18
    Ilja  Zelentsov 36 8 44 0.818 0.36 1 17
    Reto  Ziegler 22 6 28 0.786 0.22 17 16
    - Zizo 29 7 36 0.806 0.29 17 16

    What do you think, do you aggree with my formula?
    Do you have any suggestions to enhance it?
    Would Sports Interactive consider this formula (or an enhanced version of it) as an objective Penalty rating calculator in the future?

     

    Thank you for your time!
    Alex

    Penalty Skill FM24.xlsx

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    avto

    avto 181 FM Head Researchers

    Posted

    The idea itself is interesting, but you might have forgotten the goalkeeper factor. It's something different to shoot a penalty against Yashin, Buffon or other penalty-killer, or against some weak keeper, who allows all the shoots to make the net. Of course, I know, that it would be extremely difficult to implement that, but this might make a noticeable difference for at least some players.

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    BigDaddyAEL1964
    On 03/11/2023 at 03:56, avto said:

    The idea itself is interesting, but you might have forgotten the goalkeeper factor. It's something different to shoot a penalty against Yashin, Buffon or other penalty-killer, or against some weak keeper, who allows all the shoots to make the net. Of course, I know, that it would be extremely difficult to implement that, but this might make a noticeable difference for at least some players.

    I actually thought of that too, but to determine an objective formula to calculate it is highly complicated.
    Firstly, we have to talk about the general League Level and not the level of every individual Goalkeeper a player scored against, which would be ultra difficult to determine.
    Let's just say it's harder to score a penalty in the English Premier League or the Italian Serie A than the Greek Superleague or the Swiss Super League.
    This method comes to my mind:

    • Write down which league the player has taken each of his penalties on
    • Determine each league's level
    • Rate every penalty according to the level of the league it was taken on
    • Add all those together to determine the overall points a player is going to win or loose from that factor

    That is actually very time-consuming, isn't it?

    Moreover, that would be two or three steps further from where we are today. Why don't we just make one?
    Right now, we have a Scottish Premiership player with 0 penalties taken and a rating of 18 - Scott Tiffoney.
    We have a player who has scored 36 penalties (82% success) on the 1st, 2nd and 3rd tier of the Estonian football and a rating of 1 - Ilja Zelentsov.
    We have a player who has scored 5 out of only 7 penalties taken, 4 of them scored with the national team of Kuwait, and he has a rating of 18 - Bader Al-Mutawa.
    We have a player who has scored 46 penalties (96% success) on the 3rd and 5th tier of the Swiss football and a rating of 5 - Onur Hakan Akbulut.
    We have a player who has scored 30 penalties (97% success) on the 2nd, 3rd and 4th tier of the German football and a rating of 19 - Dimitrij Nazarov.
    We have a player who has scored 49 penalties (91% success) on the 1st tier of French and Swiss football and a rating of 15 - Guillaume Hoarau.
    We have a player who has scored 16 penalties (only 52% success) in international level, various 1st tier leagues and with various teams, and has a rating of 15 - Chicharito.
    We have a player who has scored 40 penalties (83% success) in the 1st tier of English and French football as well as Europa League, and a rating of 14 - Alexandre Lacazette.

    I will not continue further, the data is on the table I posted before, and I'm sure you already see my point: the current rating system (if there is any, besides scouting reports) severely lacks in coherence and objectivity.
    We see extreme highs and lows that do not correspond with the actual performance of the player, whether he is an amateur like Akbulut or famous pro like Lacazette or Chicharito.
    Even without the League Level factor, the formula makes sense.
    I don't think it would be worth the time and effort to calculate and apply this highly complicated factor just to deduct a point or two from players like Zelentsov or Akbulut; the "plain" formula gives them a rating of 17 and 20 respectively, you can deduct 2 or 3 or even 4 points from each of them and they will still have 13 instead of 1 and 16 instead of 5, which is incomparably closer to reality.

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    avto

    avto 181 FM Head Researchers

    Posted

    7 hours ago, BigDaddyAEL1964 said:

    Let's just say it's harder to score a penalty in the English Premier League or the Italian Serie A than the Greek Superleague or the Swiss Super League.

    Is this really so? I would be not so sure, if it is possible to make a generalization like this at all. A penalty is a penalty, and the abilities of other 20 people on the field, not mentioning the other teams, mean nothing at this one moment. Only the striker against the keeper.

     

    7 hours ago, BigDaddyAEL1964 said:

    That is actually very time-consuming, isn't it?

    Indeed it is.

    7 hours ago, BigDaddyAEL1964 said:

    Moreover, that would be two or three steps further from where we are today. Why don't we just make one?

    Yes, it would be. Maybe it might be an improvement indeed, even if in some cases it might not work ideally. I didn't say it's not worth discussing.

     

    7 hours ago, BigDaddyAEL1964 said:

    Right now, we have a Scottish Premiership player with 0 penalties taken and a rating of 18 - Scott Tiffoney.

    Indeed. Maybe the researcher has seen him at the trainings and knows his ability?

    7 hours ago, BigDaddyAEL1964 said:

    We have a player who has scored 36 penalties (82% success) on the 1st, 2nd and 3rd tier of the Estonian football and a rating of 1 - Ilja Zelentsov.

    Not set in the DB, value randomized during the game start.

    7 hours ago, BigDaddyAEL1964 said:

    We have a player who has scored 5 out of only 7 penalties taken, 4 of them scored with the national team of Kuwait, and he has a rating of 18 - Bader Al-Mutawa.

    Well, are You really sure, that the statistics you have ARE complete? And that someone rating him, maybe, has seen him more in the Kuwaiti league, or at least has better stats from there?

    7 hours ago, BigDaddyAEL1964 said:

    We have a player who has scored 46 penalties (96% success) on the 3rd and 5th tier of the Swiss football and a rating of 5 - Onur Hakan Akbulut.

    Attribute not set in the DB, random value.

    7 hours ago, BigDaddyAEL1964 said:

    We have a player who has scored 30 penalties (97% success) on the 2nd, 3rd and 4th tier of the German football and a rating of 19 - Dimitrij Nazarov.

    It is set. 97% success seems acceptable for 19 value then.

    7 hours ago, BigDaddyAEL1964 said:

    We have a player who has scored 49 penalties (91% success) on the 1st tier of French and Swiss football and a rating of 15 - Guillaume Hoarau.

    It's set. You have data from the 1st tier of France and Switzerland, but the player is now in the amateur level and will retire soon. So his abilities might have deteriorated a bit.

     

    As for Chicharito and Lacazette I won't be guessing, why they are rated like that. Maybe they are incoherent/not objective, but it's also possible, that the researchers responsible for their teams know them better and see something, which is not visible from the pure stats, and what we cannot rate, not seeing them regularly live at the stadium/training field.

     

    Anyway, I believe, that indeed, the stats should be a good hint to determine the value. But we also take into consideration, that they might be at least partially incomplete and/or outdated, and it's the researcher role to know, if the formula should be adjusted later, or not.

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    BigDaddyAEL1964
    10 hours ago, avto said:

    Is this really so? I would be not so sure, if it is possible to make a generalization like this at all. A penalty is a penalty, and the abilities of other 20 people on the field, not mentioning the other teams, mean nothing at this one moment. Only the striker against the keeper.

    The reason I'm suggesting this, is that a higher level League has higher level goalkeepers, too. I don't have the other 20 players in mind.
    Serie A realistically has much better goalkeepers than the Greek Superleague, at least on average.
    So I think it makes more sense to rate the difficulty of every penalty by the League it was taken on rather than each and every individual goalkeeper facing it.

    10 hours ago, avto said:

    Well, are You really sure, that the statistics you have ARE complete? And that someone rating him, maybe, has seen him more in the Kuwaiti league, or at least has better stats from there?

    The stats are from transfermarkt.com, I guess there is always a chance they are incomplete, but they are impressively detailed and complete for most players. That's why I didn't question them. If there is a better source of stats for less decorated leagues like the Kuwaiti, I would love to know it!

     

    Anyway, I'm happy that I was at least able to start a conversation around that matter, and I hope it helps the game to become even more realistic in the future.
    If this conversation actually ends up helping, I'll be proud!

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    avto

    avto 181 FM Head Researchers

    Posted

    1 minute ago, BigDaddyAEL1964 said:

    The stats are from transfermarkt.com, I guess there is always a chance they are incomplete, but they are impressively detailed and complete for most players. That's why I didn't question them. If there is a better source of stats for less decorated leagues like the Kuwaiti, I would love to know it!

    Just for this - Al-Mutawa is 38 yo. He has debuted in the Kuwaiti league in 2002. At Transfermarkt he has data only of 34 league, cup, Asian cups and NT matches. His stats at Wikipedia give him over 600 matches played in total, with over 340 goals. I'm pretty sure, among these 340 goals there is much more penalties, than only 7 ;) And as for Transfermarkt, it recently became quite a reliable source for many leagues - I don't oppose it. But for the more obscure countries, and older players, who've started more than 10, or even 5 years ago, well... you know - there's huge a lot to be added (if even possible to be found in some local archives), and TM is not to be believed blindly (even from the current seasons, let's take my Armenia for example - TM covers its 2nd level, and gives the number of matches played and goals scored for the players. But I still have to check every one of them in details, because, unfortunately, for quite a lot of them, for many matches in the season it's written "the match lineup is not yet available". And if even one match report is missing, I can't add the numbers to the DB, as I'm not sure, if these are correct. The more if, let's say, missing is half a season...). So for Bader, for example, this should be taken into consideration before reducing his attribute value :)

    Anyway, Your suggestion is really interesting and valuable, definitely worth discussing :) Thanks!

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    • SI Staff
    Michael Sant

    There are attributes within the database which are determined by pre-defined criteria. If this were the desire from a development perspective then it would apply to penalties too. There's a lot of work in, and certain can appreciate the perspective but with most attributes the aim is not to be prescriptive with these. 

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