The problem with potential ability as it appears in the game

Potential Ability, lets say first of all, is a made up thing. It doesn't exist in real life. It's a second best solution which may be necessary for a computer game to simulate real life as accurately as possible.

Of course players reach a particular level of ability, beyond which they do not progress in their careers, this is a truism. It does not mean that potential ability exists.

The problem with potential ability is this:

In real life, a player, at the age of 16, may appear to be not good enough to have a successful career. He may be released by his premiership club, have a spell in league 1, get released again, drop down to the conference or lower. He doesn't appear to have the dedication to succeed as a professional footballer. But then, in his early twenties, his club gets a new manager who encourages him where others had criticised. All of a sudden he's working hard in training, scoring lots of goals.

he ges a transfer back up to league 1 or the championship or higher, he's a different player, confident, hard-working etc.

This happens often. Off the top of my head, Michael kightly, Steve Morison, Aaron McClean, Jon Walters etc are currently playing in the top two leagues having had non-league spells.

In football manager this never happens. A player with the potential to play at the highest level is never released as a 16-18 year-old because the AI or your assistant knows he has high potential. This unpredictability, which makes football so interesting is lacking from the game.

The game would be much improved if those released 16-18 year olds from top clubs every now and then re-emerged as good players, perhaps if they had a manager with particular mental qualities to get the best out of them.

Whether this was conceived as a change in Potential ability, or a dramatic change in mental attributes is irrelevant. It should be possible for players to change the direction of their career, but it isn't.

Potential Ability, lets say first of all, is a made up thing. It doesn't exist in real life. It's a second best solution which may be necessary for a computer game to simulate real life as accurately as possible.

1.Of course players reach a particular level of ability, beyond which they do not progress in their careers, this is a truism. It does not mean that potential ability exists.

The problem with potential ability is this:

In real life, a player, at the age of 16, may appear to be not good enough to have a successful career. He may be released by his premiership club, have a spell in league 1, get released again, drop down to the conference or lower. He doesn't appear to have the dedication to succeed as a professional footballer. But then, in his early twenties, his club gets a new manager who encourages him where others had criticised. All of a sudden he's working hard in training, scoring lots of goals.

he ges a transfer back up to league 1 or the championship or higher, he's a different player, confident, hard-working etc.

This happens often. Off the top of my head, Michael kightly, Steve Morison, Aaron McClean, Jon Walters etc are currently playing in the top two leagues having had non-league spells.

2.In football manager this never happens. A player with the potential to play at the highest level is never released as a 16-18 year-old because the AI or your assistant knows he has high potential. This unpredictability, which makes football so interesting is lacking from the game.

3.The game would be much improved if those released 16-18 year olds from top clubs every now and then re-emerged as good players, perhaps if they had a manager with particular mental qualities to get the best out of them.

Whether this was conceived as a change in Potential ability, or a dramatic change in mental attributes is irrelevant. It should be possible for players to change the direction of their career, but it isn't

1. A level at which one cannot surpass (the optimum level) is the definition of potential.

2. Agreed. When you have top scouts and coaches with very good scouting ability, rarely will you mis-judge a player. There is little to no risk when you are man united and you release a 16 yr old because you think he will be no good.

3. These sort of players are too hard to code for. No one knows what makes some players early bloomers and some players late bloomers.

Scouting in FM is very different from how it is in real life. More mistakes are made on how much potential a player possesses. Over and underestimations are made all the time. The likelyhood of making these kind of mistakes in FM is no where near as high as it is in real life.

And the key thing here is that teams in real life do not look at one report. They have scouts look at potential signing for long periods of time before they make their decision. Its not like in FM when you look at one report and can know exactly what a player is capable of.

One final thing....there is another thread where ideas like this are being discussed. You might want to take a look in there

Here you go:

http://community.sigames.com/showthread.php/249049-The-Uncertainty-Principle-amp-Dynamic-Potentials%28READ%29