[[FM23 Experiment] Youth production for all nations]

Hi, 

I think this counts as an experiment? Might be of interest here. 

https://kelron1.github.io/FMScouting/index.html

I've simulated the first youth intake multiple times with different database setups to build a picture of which countries are likely to be worth scouting. The link has an interactive list and map to filter the results for different potentials and player values. 

This shows how many players were produced in each nation (where they generated, not nationality), on average, for the first intake of the save. The first intake is larger than subsequent years so don't expect to find the same numbers every year, they're for comparison. Reason for using this method was to minimise dynamic changes such as nation youth rating, club facilities, and to maximise the number of players in the dataset. I've done some more limited tests deeper into saves and it doesn't seem like the relative numbers for each nation change much as a % of total intakes, but exact numbers will vary year to year and it's hard to predict where the highest potential players appear. 

Default view for the maps show countries that produced 150+ potential players in a database with 1 playable league (Iceland) and all players loaded through advanced setup options. The filters let you adjust what you want to see and pick a setup that's closer to your own save, if you're interested. I'd like to run a sim with all leagues/players loaded at some point but it takes a long time. 

I'm curious if anyone has insight into how the game decides where to generate new players. I can see it's heavily linked to the starting database but doesn't seem to preserve the ratio of nationalities or players based in nation. My assumption is it knows where the real players in the database began their careers and tries to preserve the numbers from those nations, but as I can't export that from the game I haven't been able to verify it. 

 

[Quickfire Questions and Answers Thread (Tactic and Training Questions Only)]

By the way how do people play against Tottenham's 4231, especially at their place? Personally I think Spurs and Liverpool are far too overpowered in FM15, but that's another story, but this 4231 is a nightmare to play against!!

Unbeaten in 9 going there, 2nd in the League to their 5th so confidence is good but find myself 2 down after 20 minutes. What I can't understand about the AI's 4231 is that when we try to use it it seems far to flimsy in the centre of midfield. So I always feel hopeful that my 4132 can hold it's own especially with my three against their two, but it never happens that way, the AI's CM area seem more than capable even with just the two in there.

I did then try a much higher line to try and stop their AM dictating proceedings and swapped from two centre backs on defend to one stopper and one cover and got right back into it getting two goals and my shot count shot up but as always the AI always seems to find a way and with a minute to go a long shot hit the bar, rebounded out and hit my goalkeeper on the back of the head to bounce back into the net to lose me the game 3-2!!!

Not sure I can play so aggressively full match against that 4231 though but intrigued to see how others cope with it? The formations I struggle against with a 4312 are 4231, 442 and Liverpool's 3421. Obviously formations that either double up on the wings and/or have an AM or two and obviously a 4132 has no real width cover and with a flat three in CM no real cover in the DM area so those are the weaknesses. Obviously the other frustration is I can't seem to get my AM to dominate in those formations DM area as the AI always seems to get men back.

Advice would be appreciated.

I've been struggling against the same teams but seem to do best playing aggressively. They seem capable of dismantling an organised, deep defence with little trouble, and are quick enough to get defenders back if I try and play on the counter. My best chances come when I play a high press but it's not ideal. I do tend to switch between high/standard tempo to not tire my players out too much but the opposing goals come when I'm playing at lower tempos.

[Quickfire Questions and Answers Thread (Tactic and Training Questions Only)]

I don't think you can direct your opponents in the way you're suggesting because it's up to them where they go when they have possession - and they'll naturally head towards the most open areas of your defence. Maybe a more experienced player will have other suggestions, but I think it's a case of deciding whether conceding from crosses is enough of a problem to be worth having your wide players hold back more.

[Quickfire Questions and Answers Thread (Tactic and Training Questions Only)]

All your wide players are very attack-minded. Your WBs will push high up the pitch and get caught out of position easily, and inside forwards are going to be looking to cut into the centre of the pitch and won't be doing much defending. You're leaving a lot of space on your flanks which a half decent opponent is going to exploit. I can also imagine with a high pressing tactic that you don't have a large number of defenders back in the box to meet crosses coming in?

To some extent this kind of tactic is always going to be vulnerable to fast counters and long balls, but maybe try going WB or FB (S) to start and see if you still create decent attacking opportunities? In my experience a WB(S) will still get forward on the flanks and offer an attacking route, but drops back more readily to the defensive line than an attack duty. You could also try asymmetric roles - put a more defensive winger on one side or have one side hold while the other attacks. Having that extra man back defending could make the difference.

[Quickfire Questions and Answers Thread (Tactic and Training Questions Only)]

Just a quick question for now, is there an obvious reason why this guy is struggling to get headers in the goal?

I'm seeing the same thing repeatedly from corners and free kicks - he hangs around the far post, the ball passes the keeper, he rises way above the defenders to reach it, and heads it far wide across the front of the goal. It's nearly the same every time and looks like a good scoring chance in the match, but he only gets maybe 1 in 5 on target.