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MrPompey

Why am I not winning with 62% Possession

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Its interesting how the stats play out in FM with possession and we get upset. Looking at real life tonight.....

Just had a look at the stats for the Rangers v Stranraer game  2nd half

Stats                          Rangers V Stranraer

Possession                   38          62

Shots                            23          0

 On Target                  6             0

Corners                      12           0

 

I guess possession isn't always a true story of a game :D

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5 hours ago, MrPompey said:

Its interesting how the stats play out in FM with possession and we get upset. Looking at real life tonight.....

Just had a look at the stats for the Rangers v Stranraer game  2nd half

Stats                          Rangers V Stranraer

Possession                   38          62

Shots                            23          0

 On Target                  6             0

Corners                      12           0

 

I guess possession isn't always a true story of a game :D

Looking at those stats, you cant help but think that something is wrong there- how can a team be do dominant possession wise yet show absolutely nothing attacking?

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4 hours ago, FrazT said:

Looking at those stats, you cant help but think that something is wrong there- how can a team be do dominant possession wise yet show absolutely nothing attacking?


They were heavily set out to spoil :Dhttps://www.bbc.com/sport/football/51058102

Possession btw. is probably the most useless stat in football. At very best it tells about a style of play, at worst, nothing at all. It makes you wonder why so many broadcasters are still utilizing it, in particular without any context at all. Except for a few exceptions, nothing's much changed from my end, and this piece is old. https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2013/feb/24/football-numbers-game-gary-neville

 

As to FM, I was top of the league with an average pass completion of below 70% on a prior releaze, oft having but less than 40% of possession against the top dogs. Obviously playing counter attacking football where the aim was letting them have the ball and advance before unleashing those counters… Additionally also winning Matches in sequence where the AI had 3x the shots, whilst we're at that. :D 

Edited by Svenc

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Possession stats are no judge of superiority of course, but Gerrard said in his post match interview that Rangers dominated possession, so I suspect that the possession % were the wrong way round in this case.

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2 hours ago, FrazT said:

Possession stats are no judge of superiority of course, but Gerrard said in his post match interview that Rangers dominated possession, so I suspect that the possession % were the wrong way round in this case.

Possession stats are the same/similar as posted on multiple sites. Perhaps its the way they are currently calculated, that would be interesting to know, same for FM

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1 minute ago, MrPompey said:

Possession stats are the same/similar as posted on multiple sites. Perhaps its the way they are currently calculated, that would be interesting to know, same for FM

I suspect that the stats are supplied from one source and that source got it wrong

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20 minutes ago, FrazT said:

I suspect that the stats are supplied from one source and that source got it wrong

I didnt watch the game so I dont know how it appeared to a neutral or what was realistic but I wouldn't base the match stats reality on what a manager says post game. We know they all wear rose tinted glasses

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stranraers  gameplan  was to be compact  10 men behind ball damage limitation to keep scoreline down.

got a good payday to keep club running for next 2-3 years

just shows you stats are misleading.

having watched it didnt seem like it.

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11 hours ago, MrPompey said:

I didnt watch the game so I dont know how it appeared to a neutral or what was realistic but I wouldn't base the match stats reality on what a manager says post game. We know they all wear rose tinted glasses

I know possession isn't everything, but I just can't imagine a scenario where a team absolutely dominated the ball without a single attempt. 

Reckon FrazT is correct and the source just mistakenly reversed the stat. Be interested to see the perception of anyone who watched the game. 

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1 hour ago, dannyfc said:

I know possession isn't everything, but I just can't imagine a scenario where a team absolutely dominated the ball without a single attempt. 

Reckon FrazT is correct and the source just mistakenly reversed the stat. Be interested to see the perception of anyone who watched the game. 

it was from friday night,and i watched it 

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17 minutes ago, dave7867 said:

it was from friday night,and i watched it 

So, did Stranraer have 62 % possession?

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Yeah- we are aware of the reported stats but are finding it hard to believe them- I asked the user who watched the game what his impression was

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@dave7867  Thanks for getting back- I think that the source of the stats got them wrong and they have been picked up by multiple sources without checking them.

I have edited the last line of your post as it is not relevant and will undoubtedly start a further discussion, even if there may or may not be some truth in it.

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It seems unlikely that Rangers struggled to pressure the ball carrier against lesser Opposition. Even so, 60% possessioin and no / little shots as such isn't that hugely of a stretch, that said. Huddersfield recorded but 5 in their home match against Cardiff, but three of which from any actual Play, and likely actually wanted to win. San Martin back in Nov 2017 at Temperley had recorded over 60 for but a handful of shots likewise

On FM, historically curious Matches can be forced pretty easily, as sometimes, the AI doesn't even try. Against AI that doesn't even try to win (except by luck), I some of the highest I had was like going 200-300 passes for a shot. Possession as such isn't any measurement of attacking intent, though in football few Teams purely keep the ball to spoil.

tv3U1Q7.jpg

 

Also remember the releases where Pressing deep was weak until patched (early 2016 say). Whilst this wasn't by choice, weak Opposition could "dominate" Possession stats Pretty easily playing Keep-ball Deep on the pitch. In actual Football, in theory it could be a choice to allow them to have the ball.

Z0taOYK.jpg

 

J6nVVDs.jpg

Edited by Svenc

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On 18/01/2020 at 10:04, MrPompey said:

Possession stats are the same/similar as posted on multiple sites. Perhaps its the way they are currently calculated, that would be interesting to know, same for FM

Possession is calculated by the number of passes the team makes. I'm not sure if it's completed or attempted passes. It saves someone having to use a stopwatch for each time the team regains the ball :)

I am now curious if FM uses the same method... 

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4 hours ago, pikeal said:

Possession is calculated by the number of passes the team makes. I'm not sure if it's completed or attempted passes. It saves someone having to use a stopwatch for each time the team regains the ball :)

I am now curious if FM uses the same method... 

FM differs. It uses the stopwatch / chess clock method.

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Looks like the beta returned park the bus and lower mentality tactics dominating possession with 600-800 passes. 

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Just watched the Pompey v Scunthorpe. Pompey win 2-1 with 33% possession an never looked like losing....just saying :D

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If you play short passing playing deeper your goin to have more off the ball, hence logically why you’ll end up with end game high procession, and fail to score especially it the opponent plays deep and plays the opposite off long ball you counter each other out- negative negative I hold and they give even if you push up depending on the game your not goin to score loads every game, even Liverpool drew again Shrewsbury first time around in the FA cup.....

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Possession is useless, what's more important are the action zone numbers which tell you if you are being a force in the final third, then you look at the quality of chances inside the opponents area. Those are the only two things I pay attention to in the game -  the rest is fluff.

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26 minutes ago, Rashidi said:

Possession is useless, what's more important are the action zone numbers which tell you if you are being a force in the final third, then you look at the quality of chances inside the opponents area. Those are the only two things I pay attention to in the game -  the rest is fluff.

Marked bold is the part where a lot of users struggle. This means assessing chances in a way that both from a statistical as well as playing experience*, are more converted than the other. Hence why some, including me personally, can win matches in which the AI not only has all the ball, but also has 30 odd shots, 4-1 (in particular on releases where the AI is this stupidly aggressive that the own set pieces see no defensive cover). Whilst others not. The CCC doesn't much help that type of user, and never will, as the gap in chances included under its wide umbrella is too large. Going by Football numbers, it should be, mind. Opta data "big chances" can be anything from a 1 in 5ish chance (perfectly possible to see streaks of 6, 7, 8 misses easily) to the near unmissable  tap-in from point-blank range into an empty net. I still think making a statistical distinction of what is actually created from genuinelly open play in space, what percentage purely from the set piece, and what from a counter may add some vitable context.

* There may be issues with certain type of chances. However, from playing experience you should get a feel of what's more oft converted and what isn't. That said, I think we had a former mod demonstrating chance quality via screenshots for a former release -- IIRC he was drown by all kinds of bad theory.

Edited by Svenc

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I hate matches like this:

1277622288_Screenshot2020-02-07at12_01_54PM.thumb.png.167ff3788ca5c7707969084de56df1da.png

Because they nearly always produces shots like these

1811116230_Screenshot2020-02-07at12_04_39PM.thumb.png.cb09acafcb553826897ba8498e3e4ad5.png

9 and 23 are the only two players I am paying attention to, and its 30 mins in.  Here we have huge amounts of possession, but the opposition are just keeping everyone back, so I have to take even more risks to unlock them, and they have 2 strikers merrily sitting on the shoulders of my last two defenders. 

All it takes is that 0% in my defensive third to change to 1% and they could score off a counter, but we've seen this in real life too. Sides like Manchester City for all their possession are also spending 40% of their total shots from outside the box this season. Liverpool used to be 38% but that number has dramatically dropped when they started changing their shot patterns to happen inside the penalty area, I shared this during a discussion with some folk, and it makes some interesting points. 

https://www.liverpool.com/liverpool-fc-news/features/liverpool-jurgen-klopp-goals-shots-17696491

Possession can be a useful stat but only in conjunction with other information, SIBOT analysis, is the only thing I do on FM :-)

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24 minutes ago, Rashidi said:

9 and 23 are the only two players I am paying attention to, and its 30 mins in.  Here we have huge amounts of possession, but the opposition are just keeping everyone back, so I have to take even more risks to unlock them, and they have 2 strikers merrily sitting on the shoulders of my last two defenders. 

All it takes is that 0% in my defensive third to change to 1% and they could score off a counter, but we've seen this in real life too. 

Or Germany at the WC. Had to balance this too, as their opposition packed numbers behind the ball. They also did it badly though, which made Hummels criticizing their tactics in public. And so every however few times their opposition won the ball back, they ended up straight in front of Neuer in just a few passes. On their own end, despite dozens of shots (by far the most in the Group stages), they didn't create anything easy. And if it hadn't been for a two in a hundred last Minute wonder strike from Kroos against Sweden from unlikely Yards out, they may not even have won that one.

Edited by Svenc

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On 18/01/2020 at 03:53, FrazT said:

Looking at those stats, you cant help but think that something is wrong there- how can a team be do dominant possession wise yet show absolutely nothing attacking?

65 % - 2 shots. Both of which way late into the match (past the 80th Minute mark). :P 
https://1xbet.whoscored.com/Matches/1435996/Live/Europe-Europa-League-2019-2020-Getafe-Ajax

Edited by Svenc

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