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FMExperiment

This is a typical game of FM, it's sad and annoying and needs to be looked at.

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Ok I know this is going to sound like a moan topic and I know there's far more crazier scorelines than this. But this is what I would call a "normal" game of FM.

Normal being several things -

1. In the first half Arsenal scored all 4 of their key highlights, all long range shots or crosses from deep (80% of FMs goals).

2. I missed 4 1v1s, including an absolute gimme by the ME that saw my striker tackle a defender and have acres of space to do anything with the ball.

3. As soon as I scored  in the 46th minute of course Arsenal immediately equalize to rub salt in the wounds. (Ok this happens IRL too I guess).

4. Arsenal proceed to get a man sent off, despite hammering their goal not a single goal is scored. This is actually one of my biggest pet peeves. Everytime the AI goes a man down they do this incredible shut up shop tactic. I'd rather play vs 11 men tbh, I think I win about 10% of my games vs 10 men (yes that stat was pulled out my ass but sue me). And in all fairness, I quite often win when I have 10 men as well. If I'm the stronger team it's almost as if being down to 10 men doesn't hinder me at all as long as I make sure it's the striker who is "off".

Now, I know I'm being a moaner but really it's so frustrating to see 1 on 1s constantly missed just to see a 25 yard screamer go in. Or knowing that you're going to have "one of those days". You can usually tell from the 10th minute if it's one of those days because you've already had 3 key highlights but the AI scores first. Que your next 10 key highlights being "He'll kick himself for that!". It's just so frustrating to see "It was easier to score than miss!" when you're threw 1 on 1, only to have the AI swing a cross from deep and have it hammered in from the back post (Cause you know IRL every cross to a backpost is scored).

Can we please please please just fix the ME so that it's not so predictable to watch? Can we fine tune 1v1s? Give me less 1v1s. Seriously. If I had went in 0-4 at half time having no highlights I would have said fair cop, but why give me 1v1s endlessly when they are so underpowered? I could score more 1v1s for christ sake. Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Actually my point is kinda this. I swear the ME decides how you score chances based on how good the opposition is compared to you. Like if I play vs a bunch of plumbers from the 11th tier of English football you bet your bottom dollar my strikers will turn into the most clinical finishers you've ever seen. But when you're up against a better team? All of a sudden they can't hit a barn door from 2 feet away (especially 1v1s). I dunno... the ME seriously needs to fine tune the chances it gives because there is no way this can be a realistic simulation of chances to conversions.

Edited by FMExperiment

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I'll spare you the "It's your tactics" line but, really, there are so many factors that affect performance.  Team morale, mentality, team instructions, player instructions, match sharpness, match condition plus all of the opponent's settings and finally, yes, tactical setup all contribute to whether you generate a lot of shots and miss them or generate a few but put most of them on net or some other combination.  Are you certain that no other factors could be contributing to your team's weak performance?

 

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2 hours ago, AytchMan said:

I'll spare you the "It's your tactics" line but, really, there are so many factors that affect performance.  Team morale, mentality, team instructions, player instructions, match sharpness, match condition plus all of the opponent's settings and finally, yes, tactical setup all contribute to whether you generate a lot of shots and miss them or generate a few but put most of them on net or some other combination.  Are you certain that no other factors could be contributing to your team's weak performance?

 

Sorry I was being really ranty but my point isn't I'm not winning (as you can see I've got AFC Telford to the premiership). I'm just a bit fed up of the obvious ME flaws that don't seem to get touched upon. Like this year you can play these worldie crosses from deep that will be smashed in at the backpost, meanwhile 1v1s need about 4 chances for every conversion.

Also it does feel like when you are up against better quality opposition your chances are less likely to get converted... I don't know if that's due to how the ME keeps scorelines realistic, for example I create a lot of 1v1s and key highlights in my tactic, often equal to better opposition, but typically losing more often than winning. Of course the game is somewhat easy at the moment anyways and I'm not saying I want to regularly beat better teams because I have a strong tactic that exploits the ME somewhat (like gegenpress high line is so OP this year), but perhaps the ME could not create so many chances? The chances to conversion rate just seems really off. I don't remember the last time I saw several clean through 1v1s in a real game of football, yet in the ME I get about 3-4 a game (and so does the AI).

Of course you are right some tactics generate a lot of chances and score less and that's really an issue, because in real football you don't score less chances just because you've created loads :lol:. I mean sure if they were pot shots or something, but it seems the ME is like "Damn, it's really easy to create 1v1s, let's make them reallllllllyyy hard to score".

I probably should have made this topic once I'd simmered down after my defeat, since it's not really about losing to the AI. The AI has the same issues I do as well. It's the ME just goofing about!

Edited by FMExperiment

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You mentioned that you were watching with Key Highlights?

I can see where most 1v1's would make a key highlight since it will usually end up as a goal or a big save.  Maybe the "worldie crosses" you see are only the ones that are successfully completed and the 20 attempts before that failed to reach their target are just not shown as a key highlight?  I watch on comprehensive highlights and see a lot of unsuccessful crosses and other plays.

BTW, I do also score roughly half my goals on crosses - against equal competition.  I haven't reached a stage where my competition is vastly superior yet, but I'm guessing my cross conversion rate would go down quite a bit.

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Looks like a bad luck - it happens from time to time - both IRL and in the game. If this happens to you every second game - than it's a real problem. But if it's just one game out of ten - it's just nothing more than a bad day. I know it can be very frustrating, expecially if you prepare to the match, study your opponent, analyze his tactic and then everything goes wrong... But this kind of matches happens in real life, not too often but it does. If you can't stand it - just reload the game and see if there is another result.

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You're not alone. This version seems far easier to score from volley screams from 20+ yards than one on ones clear cut chances. Long shots should be powerful weapons, but they are clearly overtuned, along with set-pieces. Curiously in 18 long shots and direct free kicks were an aberration in how bad they were.

Guess they just reverted the roles for 19, and now let's pray 20 has some semblance of balance.

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13 hours ago, FMExperiment said:

1. In the first half Arsenal scored all 4 of their key highlights, all long range shots or crosses from deep (80% of FMs goals).

The obvious thing to say is that you need to defend better. If a team is scoring with every single shot or chance they get, you are doing something wrong (in that particular match at least). And if you are conceding 80% of goals from deep crosses, why are you not making changes to stop that? I definitely do not concede most of my goals in this way (my team concedes mostly to set pieces and to counters) so it is not something inherent to FM, it is something inherent to how you are playing.

13 hours ago, FMExperiment said:

2. I missed 4 1v1s, including an absolute gimme by the ME that saw my striker tackle a defender and have acres of space to do anything with the ball.

It is quite impossible to comment on this without seeing the incidents. Even the best players will miss some 1 on 1 chances. It depends how the goalkeeper closes down, composure of the player, the angle of the shot, the players preferred foot and a bunch of things. If you think it is a bug, report it as such on the bug forum. Nobody wants to stop progress, and it is what that forum is for.

13 hours ago, FMExperiment said:

3. As soon as I scored  in the 46th minute of course Arsenal immediately equalize to rub salt in the wounds. (Ok this happens IRL too I guess).

I guess your players switched off, or the Arsenal players were motivated by conceding. This happens in real life, as you point out. If it happens a lot to you, you need to look at your players and their personality. It is annoying, but it happens. I am sure you have done the same in the past.

13 hours ago, FMExperiment said:

4. Arsenal proceed to get a man sent off, despite hammering their goal not a single goal is scored. This is actually one of my biggest pet peeves. Everytime the AI goes a man down they do this incredible shut up shop tactic. I'd rather play vs 11 men tbh, I think I win about 10% of my games vs 10 men (yes that stat was pulled out my ass but sue me). And in all fairness, I quite often win when I have 10 men as well. If I'm the stronger team it's almost as if being down to 10 men doesn't hinder me at all as long as I make sure it's the striker who is "off".

It is certainly harder to break down a defensive side, you have to use different tactics. In essence you have to create your own space and exploit it, rather than exploiting space given to you. The better the players you play against, the harder this is. This is true of real life football too. How many sides can successfully park the bus and hold out against superior opposition? Enough that park the bus tactics are hated and derided in real life. When I am being defensive I am happy to let the AI have the ball, and defend the penalty area. They can take as many shots from outside as they like, since I have a packed the penalty area the chance of scoring is very low. Ditto with crosses, I will have more people in the box than them, so I fancy my chances to defend. What I try to stop is players having space in my box, or being able to pass to someone else in the box. It is just good tactical decisions by the AI when a man down defending a 3 goal lead. It is frustrating, but you just need to learn how to break down more defensive sides by creating overloads and having runners moving into the space these overloads can create.

On a note that is probably going to annoy you, if you are seeing the same things happen over and over again, why are you not doing things to change it? Being entirely inflexible and then blaming the game is not going to help you win more games. I cannot comment much on 1v1s because I do not have an issue with it really, but at the same time I score goals from a variety of different sources. But take long shots from the edge of the area. The ones that go in typically have a midfielder who gets the ball with a lot of space around him and time to either drive forward a bit, or compose for the shot. These are extremely dangerous situations in real life too. And it is entirely preventable. Do not give players a bunch of time on the edge of your area to pick and choose their place to shot. If a player is rushed or lacks a lot of space, their long shots will be worse. Defend the area in front of your penalty area, and long shots conversion will be low. I have a defensive counter tactic I use where I actually invite long shots. It works because I do not give players time to set themselves, and have a bunch of defenders in the way to make blocks. Same goes for conceding goals from deep crosses all the time. This probably means you have a high defensive line and not a lot of defensive cover - and probably attacking fullbacks. Just dropping your defensive line a notch would probably help a lot with this. Less space for the attacking players to attack, and so more chance your goalkeeper will deal with crosses.

I guess my point here is that if you keep doing exactly the same thing all the time, you are of course going to see the same things all the time. Both good and bad. Your job as a manager is to maximize the good and minimize the bad. Failing to do this does not mean the game is at fault, it means the user is not maximizing their play. I do not say there are no issues with the ME (I was in fact quite vocal about the lack of attacking movement when FM19 was first released). However, many things are down to the user and can be changed.

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It is unfortunate. You conceded a 7 minute hattrick (not unheard of) and a goal 3 minutes before half time. You scored a goal in the 1st minute of added time in the first half. Something to build on. But then immediately concede a 5th 1 minute later. That's enough to knock your wind out of your sails. A sucker punch. 

 

You then needed 4 goals to get something out of the game in the 2nd half. They are buzzing, full of confidence and safe knowing that if they defend resonallbly well they've won. You need 4 goals. That is alot of pressure on your side and hardly any pressure on Arsenal. 

 

It is what is commonly referred to as a "bad day at the office" you conceded a quick hattrick and you are "punch drunk" 

 

Yes, Arsenal went do to 10 men but they had a 4 goal lead to defend. Mentally that would have helped them too. Plus your own side would have shown frustration, you were so frustrated you created a post about it. 

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About the 10 man situation, i also have noticed some issues...

I have played 3 full seasons, and in total about 10 games with a red card (for me or the opponent), with the score at the time being equal or 1 goal difference.

In those 10 games, there was not a single instance where the team with red card lost. In aprox 8 of the 10 games the team with red card won (either me or the opponent, didn't matter), including some matches when they actually made a come back with 10 men, and the other 2 were draws.

I am not ranting or anything, it just seemed odd to me, and reading here something similar made me wonder if it's something that is actually happening to other people.

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Agreed - Very very unlikely to be any fixes for FM19 buts its worth raising issues for fixing in FM20 and checking if the issues exist in FM20

You do need to expect that football is a funny old game and rarely to people 100% get their own way. If you are taking pot shots all the time then shots at goal will look like domination when perhaps you are not

I do personally wonder if the 1 v 1's and CCC are really what they mean. i doubt there ate that many misses but again irl it happens every game

Oh, in real life Pompey V Coventry, Pompey 3 -1 up and Coventry have 2 men sent off. Final Score 3-3 :D

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2 hours ago, Tempest1967 said:

I doubt there will be any ME fixes now so close to FM20s release. 

 

To confirm- there will be no further updates for FM 19 

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Entitled FM User gets Telford to the Premier League. Everything is fine, this is how football works

In one of his hundreds of games, a side that totally dominates the game concedes some long shots and goals from crosses and misses some one on one chances of their own. Obviously this never happens in real life and SI must fix it now

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1v1's in FM19 are horrible. Ive had the same issue

I signed a world class poacher who had a knack of getting in behind the defence a lot, but very rarely hit the target when he only had the goalkeeper to beat. Most the time he simply blasted it straight at him.

 

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4 minutes ago, oblongata21 said:

1v1's in FM19 are horrible. Ive had the same issue

I signed a world class poacher who had a knack of getting in behind the defence a lot, but very rarely hit the target when he only had the goalkeeper to beat. Most the time he simply blasted it straight at him.

 

What are the real world conversions on 1 v 1's at the various international and league levels

I think without this information its difficult to be able to understand if it happens to often or too little and whether the conversion rate is accurate. This is always the prblem with posts of this type

I think some of the posts we see are simple frustration of lack of conversion when watch the FM game. Just like real life. The difference I think is that the ME to graphical 3D display may not fully show the difficulty of the 1 v 1 that you would see in real life match

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2 minutes ago, MrPompey said:

What are the real world conversions on 1 v 1's at the various international and league levels

I think without this information its difficult to be able to understand if it happens to often or too little and whether the conversion rate is accurate. This is always the prblem with posts of this type

I think some of the posts we see are simple frustration of lack of conversion when watch the FM game. Just like real life. The difference I think is that the ME to graphical 3D display may not fully show the difficulty of the 1 v 1 that you would see in real life match

Yeah i understand what you are saying, i appreciate the difficulty in how hard it is to replicate real life, but it would still be nice to see my striker score just one past the keeper in a one on one.

Maybe I should have trained him to lob the keeper? Might have increased my chances

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haha yes. Interestingly in another thread sometime recently it was mentioned by a poster they had never seen this ever then someone posted a clip of a 1 v 1 lob :)

What you raise is a common complaint and I do believe to be an issue in terms of how they are converted and how they are shown unconverted. I have not seen FM stats compared to real life stats

However for any complaint/bug to help its cause it likely needs to have:

1. evidence (saves / pkms etc)

2. reasoning of what they would like to see

3. comparison with real world stats

For every single version there used to be a constant barrage from Fmrs saying injuries were un realistic and happening too often

When shown the real life injury tables and SI themselves confirming injuries in FM were actually reduced to be slightly lower than real life it sudenly didnt seem so bad.  Teams can go on bad runs with injuries and goals just like they do irl. I'm sure the frustration from FMrs is close to that of real life managers :)

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the opposite happens to me with red cards, I get a player sent off and the game is done, I normally take off 3 of my key players and put 10 men behind the ball and play slow pace and low intensity to try and prevent injuries and keep fitness up for next game.

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I have to be honest...

That's a scenario I've seen so so many times. But often in MY FAVOUR.

Which doesn't excuse the fact the ME is indeed prone to throw at us some really really unbalanced and non-sensical matches at an alarming rate. And more than that, it's the kind of goals you keep on scoring and conceding.

I'm frankly sick and tired of predictable scenarios like "RW crosses from deep, both strikers are freezed on the spot with the defenders, LW is free on the far post and volleys it in". Or "FB sneaks into the box, picks up a pass or a loose ball from the middle and places it in the opposite corner".
Sometimes it feels like I'm playing one of those old arcade footie games where you could score only by shooting from a specific position...  Or the good old The Manager, where you got a finite set of highlights, one ending with a goal, one with a miss.

And it can't be dismissed only with the usual "it's your tactics" spiel, because we're not talking about winning/losing, but it's a matter of what happens during the matches, regardless of the actual result.

I wouldn't mind losing 3-1 if the team played (poorly) the way I wished, instead of winning 4-0 courtesy of sameish goals created more by the ME's Quirk Of The Year than by whatever tactical plan I thought I had devised.

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36 minutes ago, RBKalle said:

And it can't be dismissed only with the usual "it's your tactics" spiel

A tired and boring myth which needs to stop.  Nobody ever says that and this kind of BS is driving people away from the forum.

What people actually often say is "whilst the ME isn't perfect there may be something tactical which might be able to help so try the tactics forum and see".  That's very different from "it's your tactics" and it's about time people understood that because as far as I'm concerned that's being anti-social - and there is an infraction which covers that type of behaviour.

Sick and tired of it.

And guess what?  If that type of match is typical of what the OP is seeing there may well be something tactical they might be able to do to help their issue.  So head to the tactics forum and find out.

/end rant.

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IMO, this is a problem in FM in general. It's very easy to overachieve, both for the player and the AI, but once you get to a certain level and need to proceed further the game suddenly becomes far harder.

Case and point: you can take AFC Telford to the PL because the AI is dumb as bricks and you can easily outmaneuver them in the transfer market. You can buy god-like players for the lower leagues, nurture them to become superstars and sell them for a lot of money to go up the ranks. However, once you reach the PL and face some real competition (Arsenal, Chelsea, MC - teams that buy the world in FM) you get crushed. 

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10 minuti fa, herne79 ha scritto:

A tired and boring myth which needs to stop.  Nobody ever says that and this kind of BS is driving people away from the forum.

Every myth has a bit of truth in it...

It may not be as prevalent as it used to be a few years back, but that kind of half-dismissive answer has been used and abused in here. And I doubt pointing it out (half-jokingly) is what drives people away from the forum...

Some weaknesses and annoyances in the game can be mitigated by a change of tactical approach, but others are indeed "unfixable" as they're part of how the ME plays on a specific iteration/build. Denying that is pointless and a tad dishonest IMO.

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2 hours ago, grasu said:

IMO, this is a problem in FM in general. It's very easy to overachieve, both for the player and the AI, but once you get to a certain level and need to proceed further the game suddenly becomes far harder.

Case and point: you can take AFC Telford to the PL because the AI is dumb as bricks and you can easily outmaneuver them in the transfer market. You can buy god-like players for the lower leagues, nurture them to become superstars and sell them for a lot of money to go up the ranks. However, once you reach the PL and face some real competition (Arsenal, Chelsea, MC - teams that buy the world in FM) you get crushed. 

I kind of think the whole game is quite easy (unless you go out of your way to make it hard). The lower leagues are easier in the sense that good loans and one star player can carry you. The PL takes a bit longer to win but I think of it as "3 divisions". The bottom half, the top half, and the top 5. With a 50+ million transfer budget each season it doesn't take too long to win each "division" and build a world class team IMO. For me the hardest league is the Championship because you have to beat several PL quality teams and they can often be league runaways amassing up to 90 points for 3rd place.

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31 minutes ago, RBKalle said:

And I doubt pointing it out (half-jokingly) is what drives people away from the forum

Not even half joking.  It happened and specifically because flak was given for attempting to help people by saying "you may be able to get help if you try the tactics forum".

31 minutes ago, RBKalle said:

Denying that is pointless and a tad dishonest IMO.

Denying what?  Please do point out where I have said everything is fixable (hint - you can't).  And I'm dishonest?  That I do take issue with.

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On 05/09/2019 at 07:12, sporadicsmiles said:

The obvious thing to say is that you need to defend better. If a team is scoring with every single shot or chance they get, you are doing something wrong (in that particular match at least). And if you are conceding 80% of goals from deep crosses, why are you not making changes to stop that? I definitely do not concede most of my goals in this way (my team concedes mostly to set pieces and to counters) so it is not something inherent to FM, it is something inherent to how you are playing.

It is quite impossible to comment on this without seeing the incidents. Even the best players will miss some 1 on 1 chances. It depends how the goalkeeper closes down, composure of the player, the angle of the shot, the players preferred foot and a bunch of things. If you think it is a bug, report it as such on the bug forum. Nobody wants to stop progress, and it is what that forum is for.

I guess your players switched off, or the Arsenal players were motivated by conceding. This happens in real life, as you point out. If it happens a lot to you, you need to look at your players and their personality. It is annoying, but it happens. I am sure you have done the same in the past.

It is certainly harder to break down a defensive side, you have to use different tactics. In essence you have to create your own space and exploit it, rather than exploiting space given to you. The better the players you play against, the harder this is. This is true of real life football too. How many sides can successfully park the bus and hold out against superior opposition? Enough that park the bus tactics are hated and derided in real life. When I am being defensive I am happy to let the AI have the ball, and defend the penalty area. They can take as many shots from outside as they like, since I have a packed the penalty area the chance of scoring is very low. Ditto with crosses, I will have more people in the box than them, so I fancy my chances to defend. What I try to stop is players having space in my box, or being able to pass to someone else in the box. It is just good tactical decisions by the AI when a man down defending a 3 goal lead. It is frustrating, but you just need to learn how to break down more defensive sides by creating overloads and having runners moving into the space these overloads can create.

On a note that is probably going to annoy you, if you are seeing the same things happen over and over again, why are you not doing things to change it? Being entirely inflexible and then blaming the game is not going to help you win more games. I cannot comment much on 1v1s because I do not have an issue with it really, but at the same time I score goals from a variety of different sources. But take long shots from the edge of the area. The ones that go in typically have a midfielder who gets the ball with a lot of space around him and time to either drive forward a bit, or compose for the shot. These are extremely dangerous situations in real life too. And it is entirely preventable. Do not give players a bunch of time on the edge of your area to pick and choose their place to shot. If a player is rushed or lacks a lot of space, their long shots will be worse. Defend the area in front of your penalty area, and long shots conversion will be low. I have a defensive counter tactic I use where I actually invite long shots. It works because I do not give players time to set themselves, and have a bunch of defenders in the way to make blocks. Same goes for conceding goals from deep crosses all the time. This probably means you have a high defensive line and not a lot of defensive cover - and probably attacking fullbacks. Just dropping your defensive line a notch would probably help a lot with this. Less space for the attacking players to attack, and so more chance your goalkeeper will deal with crosses.

I guess my point here is that if you keep doing exactly the same thing all the time, you are of course going to see the same things all the time. Both good and bad. Your job as a manager is to maximize the good and minimize the bad. Failing to do this does not mean the game is at fault, it means the user is not maximizing their play. I do not say there are no issues with the ME (I was in fact quite vocal about the lack of attacking movement when FM19 was first released). However, many things are down to the user and can be changed.

Ah there's so much to address here but I'm not completely against a lot of your points. There are many things I can do tactically better, I'm not a nuanced tactical player, just an ME abuser. But at least I don't set piece abuse ;)

But for sure, 1v1s are underpowered. Would you call it a bug? I don't know. I consider it a band aid. I get/give 3-4 1v1s a game, I swear the conversion rate is ridiculously low and I think it's because if they were harder than scorelines would get silly. Maybe I could upload a few games at one point and see if you agree. How often do you see a player square the ball or round the keeper? When I see a player miss a 1v1 I don't automatically think broken ME, but when I see a player never round the keeper, never square it in the most obvious of times... then I think broken ME.

But really I should have made this topic independent of the result, because the loss was just a catalyst and I shouldn't have focused on it. It goes both ways, the AI needs about 3-4 1v1s to convert one. If I'm the stronger team I'll win the vast majority of games with 10 men without changing anything (except for moving 1 of my strikers to fill in the gap, anything else is suicide).

The things that happen over and over again are a ridiculous amount of 1v1 chances, a lot of goals coming from deep crosses, and 10 men disadvantages not accurately simulated.

Also as I've said it's not really about winning/losing (overachieving isn't a challenge when the ME has exploitable flaws), but rather I'm just a bit disappointed in several areas of the ME. I've played 100s of hours of FM this iteration and it's just a bit funny to see that because I use a certain tactic that I know I'm going to typically always get a lot of 1v1s and not score them, and if I concede it's from a deep cross to the back post. Of course I could change the tactic (the high line) to fix that, but the result would be the tactic not being as strong.. so yeah I'll keep the high line because it wins me games, and then I'll just accept that when I concede it'll usually be from a counter attack swinging a cross to the backpost.. because this is a game, not real life. I don't expect the ME to be real life... just y'know... better...

To take it one step further... how are set piece exploits still in the game after a whole year?! Just another part of the ME I feel is neglected.

Edited by FMExperiment

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1 hour ago, RBKalle said:

Every myth has a bit of truth in it...

It may not be as prevalent as it used to be a few years back, but that kind of half-dismissive answer has been used and abused in here. And I doubt pointing it out (half-jokingly) is what drives people away from the forum...

Some weaknesses and annoyances in the game can be mitigated by a change of tactical approach, but others are indeed "unfixable" as they're part of how the ME plays on a specific iteration/build. Denying that is pointless and a tad dishonest IMO.

Bit OTT response here in my opinion - some aspects of the game are 'unfixable' in the sense you can't make tactical changes to address certain things, but that it creates a specific situation whereby a team is much more liable to create more chances and have more possession but lose it very much unfounded and as stated, the type of speculation which is damaging to discussion. 

Really don't appreciate mods being accused of being 'dishonest' or lying about certain situations to suit their own opinions, especially when there hasn't been any actual evidence to suggest what they're saying is incorrect. 

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6 hours ago, FMExperiment said:

It goes both ways, the AI needs about 3-4 1v1s to convert one.

If that's true (Long-term), then that's actually a Pretty realistic Ratio, which would be impressive. Whilst good chances, 1vs1s rank amongst the easily most overrated chances in the public eye -- see Morata receiving all that flak last year January for missing three against Arsenal, when realistically, you'd expect him to score 1. Therefore, the issue may be one of frequency (and the nature of the misses), rather than one on ones not getting converted. Like on a past release, there may be even an issue with a specific TYPE of one on one, as not all are equal (and shouldn't be). E.g. balls at no angle from the middle of the pitch, in particular played in behind the Forward, tend to give him very Little time and space, and the keeper another Edge in that he doesn't Need to anticipate any angle, but simply come straight off his line to make the Goal smaller.

Would be interesting to see actual FM data on all Kinds of chances, mind. What I am sure of is that FM is a lot less crazy than Football. Which is a shame, as the surprises can go our ways too… If it were as crazy, this place would explode. There's a reason why People in actual Football making Money off this argue the seasonal table flat out lies, or that a Hertha Team almost finishing 1st in 2009 by crunching out 1-0s in sequence were worse than one relegated the Season Prior; or why Dortmund can go from CL final to Relegation strugglers a Season and a half later despite not playing that badly at all; or why Madrid can go from CL winners to trailing 15 Points behind Barca the coming season. And it's because Football is quite random, even in the mid- to longer term, never mind the one-off match where scoring rates are massively variable. It's within ist rules. 90 minutes of kicking, dozens of attacks, and eventually but a couple seconds deciding the winner. A single match of tennis is arguably a tons more reliable measurementn of quality than months of a football season. :DEven the Footballer Of The Year goes on a finishing streak you cannot possibly comprehend by logic (CR7 scoring 4 Goals off over 100 attempts in La Liga 2017/2018 -- and that's just him, never mind Benzema et all). Poor Zidane. 

 

As to FM, it's Always been quite simple, perhaps far too simple. If you struggle to convert mid- to longerm term, you are overrating your chances. Both from watching, as well as playing experience. Probably one of the reasons why SI don't give off any more detailed data… Everybody would just funnel Play to the chances most easy to convert, and win. That's on the attacking front. Another Player more eager to ape Sean "I don't care About how many chances my Team concedes" Dyche would to the vice versa on the defending front, sit and block deep and frustrate the hell out of the AI. Football Managers don't have precise numbers to work with, they must work by experience and think of means that may a) increase the chances of scoring and b) decrease the chances of conceding, whilst balancing both. I can Pretty much guarantee that Rashidi's SIBOT (?) Chance Analysis gives you a headstart over any AI that it will never catch up with again. :D 

 

edit: Speaking of FM19's increased Long shot conversion, I am surprised that "parking bus" Teams rigidly locking their box and final third still provide Frustration. Must be the large numbers at Play; considering the AI's "bias" towards extremely defensive tactics, in particular when considered an Underdog, eventually, there will be a few Matches were none of those shots go in to finally break the deadlock.

Edited by Svenc

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