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Karnack

Should this be considered a good goal chance?

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Posted (edited)

I've been trying for quite some time to get my AM to consistently create good chances without much success. So I started to analyse the issue and I've noticed that the AM actually creates these kind of through balls pretty frequently (#19 passed via the red arrow to #22 Spalek). These chances have yet managed to turn into a goal and over the last season and I've had more than 10 of these. What often happens is that either my IF or my Striker gets the chance and they have ALWAYS shot straight at the keeper.

Do I expect too much from a chance like this? 

image.thumb.png.4d9bfb758063f8937f9df69bcfd7bc0c.png

Edited by Karnack

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Posted (edited)

That's a crucial question in terms of enjoying the game actually. One the game fails to provide reliable feedback for. Is this a "good Chance?" Generally, yes, obviously. However, this isn't quite a Chance where the keeper cannot react to Things anymore, no less as the ball isn't provided from any angle -- a crossfield ball for instance has to Change direction in an instant with the shot, or it goes way off target. The direction of this ball after the pass won't Change overly much. Then it may also matter if the shot is taken first time or not -- the former of which should give the keeper less time to react and still come off his line. Speaking of which, if he Comes off his line Prior to the shot, that makes the target smaller and the Forward more likely to simply hit him.

Some of this is hard to assess from a still Picture (and that's not going into the player's footednesss, which should/may also Play some role). With all that said, to me through balls from central positions at no angle tend to be some of the most "overrated" Chance types on FM of all. And have been for a while (regardless of release). Even moreso if the Forward is immediately hounded and closed down (which typically happens upon receiving the ball). Whilst they may be rare/r depending on the release, I#d take a bonafide cut back to a Forward from wider positions over this any time of the day, as in tendency it takes the keeper half out of the Picture already, and tends to give the Forward more time. Additionally, there's still quite some distance between goal and taker in the above picture...

 

edit: Without SI giving some of their "numbers crunshing" away, we cannot say exactly of Course HOW good a Chance that is. In General Football Analysis "big scoring" chances, start at About 1 in 5 rates (or 20%). That sounds lowly, but the average shot conversion is half of that, and penalties even by specialists aren't converted roughly 15-20% of the time Long-term -- a Situation which for once puts the keeper at a severe disadvantage. Assuming the game would assign a similar number on the above Chance (slightly modified by Player traits, etc.) -- the Chance of "not scoring" in ten would be mathematically about 10% (80% ^ 10). And if it were that high -- this is just an assumption -- one should see it quite regularly. In games code, far lesser "Probabilites" tend to repeat, see this talk from 25 mins onwards. :) 

Edited by Svenc

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29 minutes ago, Svenc said:

That's a crucial question in terms of enjoying the game actually. One the game fails to provide reliable feedback for. Is this a "good Chance?" Generally, yes, obviously. However, this isn't quite a Chance where the keeper cannot react to Things anymore, no less as the ball isn't provided from any angle -- a crossfield ball for instance has to Change direction in an instant with the shot, or it goes way off target. The direction of this ball after the pass won't Change overly much. Then it may also matter if the shot is taken first time or not -- the former of which should give the keeper less time to react and still come off his line. Speaking of which, if he Comes off his line Prior to the shot, that makes the target smaller and the Forward more likely to simply hit him.

Some of this is hard to assess from a still Picture (and that's not going into the player's footednesss, which should/may also Play some role). With all that said, to me through balls from central positions at no angle tend to be some of the most "overrated" Chance types on FM of all. And have been for a while (regardless of release). Even moreso if the Forward is immediately hounded and closed down (which typically happens upon receiving the ball). Whilst they may be rare/r depending on the release, I#d take a bonafide cut back to a Forward from wider positions over this any time of the day, as in tendency it takes the keeper half out of the Picture already, and tends to give the Forward more time. Additionally, there's still quite some distance between goal and taker in the above picture...

 

edit: Without SI giving some of their "numbers crunshing" away, we cannot say exactly of Course HOW good a Chance that is. In General Football Analysis "big scoring" chances, start at About 1 in 5 rates (or 20%). That sounds lowly, but the average shot conversion is half of that, and penalties even by specialists aren't converted roughly 15-20% of the time Long-term -- a Situation which for once puts the keeper at a severe disadvantage. Assuming the game would assign a similar number on the above Chance (slightly modified by Player traits, etc.) -- the Chance of "not scoring" in ten would be mathematically about 10% (80% ^ 10). And if it were that high -- this is just an assumption -- one should see it quite regularly. In games code, far lesser "Probabilites" tend to repeat, see this talk from 25 mins onwards. :) 

Precisely the right person to answer my question. Thank you, won't feel to bad about those misses now :)

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The chances of a player scoring from that distance are small, I would think. It is a nice chance to make, but finishing will depend on the striker you have. This is a pretty long range chance still, so the 'keeper has plenty of time to get into a good position for a save. Also, the striker has to shoot quickly, before he is closed down. He will not have a huge amount of time to move forward, and the space he has is only going to get smaller. You should expect some of them to go in if he has good finishing (and possible long shots still count here). Equally, PPMs will make a different. "Places shots" and "shoots with power" can make a huge difference here, I think.

Out of interest, do you play with a left wing back? To me, the AMC could also play a ball out wide to an overlapping wing back on the left. There is a tonne of space for such a ball. You would also have 3 players attacking any cross that comes in. It can be an alternative way to create chances from situations like this one. 

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, sporadicsmiles said:

The chances of a player scoring from that distance are small, I would think. It is a nice chance to make, but finishing will depend on the striker you have. This is a pretty long range chance still, so the 'keeper has plenty of time to get into a good position for a save. Also, the striker has to shoot quickly, before he is closed down. He will not have a huge amount of time to move forward, and the space he has is only going to get smaller. You should expect some of them to go in if he has good finishing (and possible long shots still count here). Equally, PPMs will make a different. "Places shots" and "shoots with power" can make a huge difference here, I think.

Out of interest, do you play with a left wing back? To me, the AMC could also play a ball out wide to an overlapping wing back on the left. There is a tonne of space for such a ball. You would also have 3 players attacking any cross that comes in. It can be an alternative way to create chances from situations like this one. 

I do have a left wing back on Attack and he is actually out there outside of the frame :) Thats also happens now and then, but we have trouble converting from crosses, my striker who is a tall fellow with 15 in heading rarely scores headers for some reason. 

Edited by Karnack

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Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, Karnack said:

I do have a left wing back on Attack and he is actually out there outside of the frame :) Thats also happens now and then, but we have trouble converting from crosses, my striker who is a tall fellow with 15 in heading rarely scores headers for some reason. 

Not sure at what Research SI are Looking at (I've seen Rashidi recently also making a strong case against headers being ever counted as "Big chances", which arguably is a bit much, mind). But, for instance:

Heads_vs_Feet_final.png?resize=785,539

Edited by Svenc

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On 21/04/2019 at 10:46, Karnack said:

I do have a left wing back on Attack and he is actually out there outside of the frame :) Thats also happens now and then, but we have trouble converting from crosses, my striker who is a tall fellow with 15 in heading rarely scores headers for some reason. 

What is the player on the right of the striker? The other way to convert this chance would be the striker to play a ball to his right into space for the other player to run onto.

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