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I've just finished playing through the same game 63 times. I lost every single one.

Morale of all starting players is Very good or excellent. All players are match sharp and fit. I'm West Ham, 5th in the league, vs Wolves, 15th. At home. I've tried probably 15 different formations and set ups. I've thought through each one - trying to combat Wolves's set up.

Yet - all of them - I've lost. 

I don't care what anybody says, this is not realistic. 36 games in a season - no team wins every single one. By definition, nothing I've done has influenced the outcome of this match.

So - it follows that something about the game algorithm allows situations where there are games you cannot win, for whatever reason. Which kind of makes it a bit pointless.

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This isn't true. Firstly that's not how the match engine works. Secondly, once a year someone says this, they upload their save, and someone wins the match. 

Be interesting to see the save. 

 

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Oh boy, this takes me back...

Somebody feel free to correct me on this, but I believe FM takes a lot of factors into account when calculating the outcome of a match. Some of these will be 'locked', for want of a better word, some time in advance of kick-off. Even the team talk you gave your players after the previous match could have an effect.

That could explain why you're getting similar results when replaying a match, even with different tactics (which could actually make matters worse). That being said, there are virtually no unwinnable matches on FM. Upload the save, and somebody will win the match.

Edited by CFuller

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if they're locked then it's pre-determined. not 100% pre-determined, but heavily influenced. Life isn't really like that. 

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5 minutes ago, TheOriginalJimiVegas said:

if they're locked then it's pre-determined. not 100% pre-determined, but heavily influenced. Life isn't really like that. 

You can't replay life either, so you're not making the best comparison. 

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I suspect "trying lots of different formations" is part of the problem.

I bet lots of people here could win it for you...

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you can't replay life doesn't make sense mate and isn't really relevant.

View it as a scientific experiment. repeatable actions with exactly the same conditions in going in. 

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12 minutes ago, CFuller said:

Oh boy, this takes me back...

Somebody feel free to correct me on this, but I believe FM takes a lot of factors into account when calculating the outcome of a match. Some of these will be 'locked', for want of a better word, some time in advance of kick-off. Even the team talk you gave your players after the previous match could have an effect.

That could explain why you're getting similar results when replaying a match, even with different tactics (which could actually make matters worse). That being said, there are virtually no unwinnable matches on FM. Upload the save, and somebody will win the match.

Not locked as such but I know what you mean. For example if saved after a pre match press conference, whatever effects that would have depending on your answer (and tbh the effects are quite minor in magnitude) would always be in place when you load up because the event would obviously have taken place. 

 

Also that thread was one of the greatest forum threads of all time 

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Just now, TheOriginalJimiVegas said:

you can't replay life doesn't make sense mate and isn't really relevant.

View it as a scientific experiment. repeatable actions with exactly the same conditions in going in. 

And the conditions after are still open to influence. Like I said upload the save and watch someone win. 

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25 minutes ago, TheOriginalJimiVegas said:

I don't care what anybody says, this is not realistic. 36 games in a season - no team wins every single one. By definition, nothing I've done has influenced the outcome of this match.

And I'm not sure what the point you're trying to make here is. In this example, you wouldn't be playing 36 games in a season and losing them all; you'd be replaying the same game 36 times and losing every single time. /Pedantry

Just now, enigmatic said:

I suspect "trying lots of different formations" is part of the problem.

I bet lots of people here could win it for you...

Indeed. There are plenty of file-hosting sites out there where the OP can upload his save for others to play. I for one wouldn't mind taking on that challenge in the morning.

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The "trying lots of different formations" is part of the problem bit. Each re-play doesn't know what has happened in the other ones. There's no influence on the team no matter how many formations I try. 

My point is that this game allows unacceptably low odds of winning certain matches depending on decisions made outside those matches. That kind of ruins the simulation - I get WHY that happens - because it's a computer game and it has to be coded, and they have to keep it realistic. 

But it doesn't alter the fact that some games you will find extremely difficult to win - not because of a disparity of quality but because the engine's equations have stacked up a particular way. which really undermines the game.

I've seen enough matches to know that yeah, sometimes no matter what the manager does, nothing changes. But - it happens a lot - so it makes the whole thing feel algorithm driven. Plus I remember Martin O'Neill sticking Matty Elliot up front for the first time, and I know that the idea of some games you can't win is nonsense - you can win every game if you find the right things to do.

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The point i

2 minutes ago, CFuller said:

And I'm not sure what the point you're trying to make here is. In this example, you wouldn't be playing 36 games in a season and losing them all; you'd be replaying the same game 36 times and losing every single time. /Pedantry

 

fair enough. My point though is - there's no bell curve here. Not even a draw - it's very synthetic.

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Still waiting for the upload

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having said that - don't laugh - i've just won.

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yeh - I'll take the loss - but - it's true what I'm saying. 

 

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1 minute ago, TheOriginalJimiVegas said:

yeh - I'll take the loss - but - it's true what I'm saying. 

 

Upload the save, and you'll see its not true at all 

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Trying lots of formations is a problem when your team has absolutely no idea how to play them, as there's a good chance it's counterproductive. Particularly if you're trying stuff out of frustration rather than actually seeing what went wrong (you haven't sat through 63 sets of highlights have you?)

Random tactics that haven't been worked on are only going to stack the probability of a team that's apparently got a complacency or pressure-handling issue against a team that's apparently well-motivated and a lot better than their current league position suggests

Besides, if any team could lose 63 consecutive games to the same team, it'd be banter era West Ham :lol:

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ha ha. fair point!

I have sat through 63. I got mad but then just wondered. I think training must be a big factor though - I've been watching most of the highlights - some full match - and in all of them, Wolves are just zingy while we're slow and ponderous. I reckon it must be my last coupla weeks' training.

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This has always been bought up over the years whether the game just plays out the result . Would be the biggest con ever if it was true 

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If this is true it's pretty crazy.  63 times is a hell of a lot.

The real test would be to play 63 times with the SAME tactics and see what happens.  Because really, you should be able to win at least 10-20% of the time even if their tactics are somehow your perfect kryptonite.

Edited by jujigatame

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yeah - this game is a scam. Happened again. 

If game results are 'pre-ordained', whats the point of having match days?

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Just now, TheOriginalJimiVegas said:

yeah - this game is a scam. Happened again. 

If game results are 'pre-ordained', whats the point of having match days?

It isn't pre-determined at all. As as been repeatedly said and ignored - upload the save.

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Il 26/1/2019 in 01:16 , TheOriginalJimiVegas ha scritto:

if they're locked then it's pre-determined. not 100% pre-determined, but heavily influenced. Life isn't really like that. 

If you could re-play life (as supporter-meaning that you cannot change everything in the match), your team will get always the same results 

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52 minutes ago, TheOriginalJimiVegas said:

yeah - this game is a scam. Happened again. 

If game results are 'pre-ordained', whats the point of having match days?

And what exactly led you to that conclusion?

I'll repeat those three words again: upload the save.

7 minutes ago, FlorianAlbert9 said:

If you could re-play life (as supporter-meaning that you cannot change everything in the match), your team will get always the same results 

A little part of me wishes I could 'replay' Arsenal's FA Cup defeat on Friday, though I'm sure Manchester United would've beaten us 9 times out of 10 anyway. :( Such is life, and such is FM.

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1 hour ago, TheOriginalJimiVegas said:

yeah - this game is a scam. Happened again. 

If game results are 'pre-ordained', whats the point of having match days?

Uploaded the game yet?

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I think the reason it look that way is that the man management aspects that are set in stone before kick-off have too much weight.

So, if you think about some factors that are in play before team/tactic selection:

  •  Reputation of teams and players
  • Form
  • Morale
  • Team cohesion
  • Player condition

Once you get to the set-up screen for a game you can choose:

  • Players that are included
  • Tactics

So in any game, if they are not in your favour, you need to overcome all the first set of conditions via those parameters available to you during the game. If the game weighs too heavily in favour of those pre-game factors (which is subjective - I think it does) then you are likely to see the same outcome more often than not.

If the game weighs more heavily towards players and tactics then you should be able to effect dramatically different outcomes by changing personnel or tactics.

 

 

Edited by rp1966
Typo

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What the hell!? Did I read correctly, you have replayed a single match 63 times? If so, one day you'll be a millionaire my friend! 

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On 26/01/2019 at 03:37, prot651 said:

This has always been bought up over the years whether the game just plays out the result . Would be the biggest con ever if it was true 

I may be wrong but I think the game probably passes parameters related to the teams playing from the management part of the game to the match engine as 'team a vs team b'*; this generates the match narrative and result, which is then passed into the graphical match representation - with the ability for the UI in the match representation to feed back into the ME from minute x to replay with in-game changes to tactics or substitutions. The fact that you can instant result and the way highlights for AI vs AI matches are generated together with the speed of processing for all matches in a given day seem to suggest something like this approach.

Would be nice for someone with inside knowledge to confirm or correct that assessment.

 

* In other words the ME wouldn't know which is the human team unless it was one of the parameters passed to the ME.

Edited by rp1966

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9 minutes ago, Seb Wassell said:

For me, the most interesting side of this is the statistics. If we take the example above that you "should" win this match "10%-20%" of the time then 80%-90% of the time you should lose it. Therefore on any given occasion you should overwhelmingly expect to lose. Seeing as every replay is a distinct event, where the countless replays before and after it have no impact at all on the outcome of this single result, the statistical likelihood of you winning any given match is very small and remains identically small no matter how many times you replay it. You should reasonably expect every replay to end in defeat.

The problem is that people in general cannot understand probability. It's like if you flip a coin 10 times and all 10 are heads. What are the odds for the 11th time to be tails? 50%!

Because the flips are not connected it doesn't matter if you have 2000 heads in a row, the odds are still only 50% for tails next. The probability doesn't change if the incidents are not linked in any way, but we humans often "feel" it should.

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47 minuti fa, Seb Wassell ha scritto:

* CA 200 does not equal 20 for every attribute

Off-topic. I have had this question since the first time we get the pre-game editor.

The question is simple, why?

I understand the choice to have some attributes with 0 points needed (like Aggression and Important Matches -even if i disagree with the last one),

but why you decided that all attributes at max (but even only the most important for role) excedeed the max CA avaible?

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On 26/01/2019 at 00:33, TheOriginalJimiVegas said:

The "trying lots of different formations" is part of the problem bit. Each re-play doesn't know what has happened in the other ones. There's no influence on the team no matter how many formations I try. 

My point is that this game allows unacceptably low odds of winning certain matches depending on decisions made outside those matches. That kind of ruins the simulation - I get WHY that happens - because it's a computer game and it has to be coded, and they have to keep it realistic. 

But it doesn't alter the fact that some games you will find extremely difficult to win - not because of a disparity of quality but because the engine's equations have stacked up a particular way. which really undermines the game.

I've seen enough matches to know that yeah, sometimes no matter what the manager does, nothing changes. But - it happens a lot - so it makes the whole thing feel algorithm driven. Plus I remember Martin O'Neill sticking Matty Elliot up front for the first time, and I know that the idea of some games you can't win is nonsense - you can win every game if you find the right things to do.

Fully agree with this, you've hit the nail on the head. 2nd Vs 1st in the league should have a 40-60 chance of winning, not a 1-99 as it so often seems to be. 

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3 hours ago, XaW said:

The problem is that people in general cannot understand probability. It's like if you flip a coin 10 times and all 10 are heads. What are the odds for the 11th time to be tails? 50%!

Because the flips are not connected it doesn't matter if you have 2000 heads in a row, the odds are still only 50% for tails next. The probability doesn't change if the incidents are not linked in any way, but we humans often "feel" it should.

That is generally false understanding of probability. If you flip a coin 10 times and all 10 are heads, the odds for the 11th time to be tails are 99.951%. The incidents are always linked, ask Blaise Pascal. The lad replayed 63 times and lost all of them. The chances of anyone else replaying the same match and losing 63 are slimmer than winning the jackpot of the lottery. BUT football is not all about probability. We must consider the quality of players, tactics etc. so the chances of losing 63 times in a row improves a lot.

There is a great example of cheating the roulette using probability, by playing either red or black and doubling your bet every time you lose. This way you can't lose in a long run, as long as you have deep pockets and can double your bet in an unfortunate strike of misses.   Of course this method was restricted by imposing roof on the bets. 

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18 minutes ago, EdL said:

No it isn't - how can the probability of individual coin flip ever not be 50:50 ? (mindblown) - well aside some sort of fixed coin anyway...

Well if you are to flip a coin for the first time in your life, well then the chances are 50,01:49.99 of hitting the heads, because most coins have a heavier tail. But nothing in life is an individual incident. You've heard the formula of success? - Keep trying and you inevitably will succeed. 

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36 minuti fa, Haiku ha scritto:

Well if you are to flip a coin for the first time in your life, well then the chances are 50,01:49.99 of hitting the heads, because most coins have a heavier tail. But nothing in life is an individual incident. You've heard the formula of success? - Keep trying and you inevitably will succeed. 

Pretend that what you said is true (and no, It isn't), your thesis is against you, 'cause the OP, loading the game, flip the coin all the time for the first time. 

So probability doesn't change.

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48 minutes ago, Haiku said:

You've heard the formula of success? - Keep trying and you inevitably will succeed. 

It's absolute nonsense and a big part of the reason why people get addicted to gambling. Nothing in life is inevitable. Luck does not magically balance out. A fair coin flip is always 50/50.

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5 hours ago, XaW said:

The problem is that people in general cannot understand probability. It's like if you flip a coin 10 times and all 10 are heads. What are the odds for the 11th time to be tails? 50%!

Because the flips are not connected it doesn't matter if you have 2000 heads in a row, the odds are still only 50% for tails next. The probability doesn't change if the incidents are not linked in any way, but we humans often "feel" it should.

Odds for the 11th time is still 50%, but probability of getting heads 10 times in a row is 0.5^10

So, when this guy is playing the same match for the 64th time, and if his probability of winning against Wolves is 10%, it will still be 10% for that 64th match, but chances of him losing 63 times back to back is extremely low. So, if the ME works as advertised, he is doing something wrong to lose it 63 times back to back.

Let's not get confused here: He is not complaining about losing the 63rd attempt. He is complaining about losing 63 times back to back. 

To further clarify: Try flipping the coin in series of 10, and tell me when you get 10 heads in a row, and how many times did it take you to finally see that. You will spend a long time :)

 

 

Edited by bleventozturk

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how do we know that's not realistic anyway, perhaps if you reloaded real life and changed the tactics right before a game you'd get the same result ;)

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We are talking about apples and bananas. I get it is 50/50 to flip a coin and not giving a **** about previous flips. I was answering this:

7 hours ago, XaW said:

It's like if you flip a coin 10 times and all 10 are heads. What are the odds for the 11th time to be tails? 50%!

Yeah, when you reach that 11th try it's already 50/50 only, but in the context of the previous 10 times it is 100-(0,5^11x100) = 99.95% chance you will hit a tail before your 12th try. It's 17th century mathematics invented by Pascal and his theory of probability.  Replaying and losing 63 matches is crazy, but not as much as flipping 11 heads in a row, because in FM as in football is not all about luck.

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2 hours ago, Spurs08 said:

It's absolute nonsense and a big part of the reason why people get addicted to gambling. Nothing in life is inevitable. Luck does not magically balance out. A fair coin flip is always 50/50.

Gambling is placing bets on very small chance of winning,. If people with gambling issues really do the math and understand the probability theory, they wouldn't do it. Yes you will get that 21 points on Black Jack in one of hundred games, and indeed you will inevitably win this game, but will that cover all your previous and further losses? **** no. I explained the ultimate roulette wheel winning strategy which is banned from all casinos and you'll be kicked out if you dare to try it. Here it is again:

Game 1: Placing 1$ on RED, comes out BLACK, total loss: 1$

Game 2: Placing 2$ on RED, comes out BLACK, total loss: 2+1=3$

Game 3: Placing 4$ on RED, comes out BLACK, total loss 4+3=7$

Game 4: Placing 8$ on RED, comes out BLACK, total loss 8+7=15$

Game 5: Placing 16$ on RED, comes out BLACK, total loss 16+15=31$

Game 6: Placing 32$ on RED, comes out RED, You WIN 32$ on top of your 32$ bet, total loss = 31$, balance 32-31=1$ earned.

Game 7: Placing 1$ on RED.... and so on.

The idea is that if you have 512$ cash you have a 99,9% chance to win good money over continuous playing using this strategy based on probability. But again, casinos will not allow you to play like that.

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3 hours ago, FlorianAlbert9 said:

Pretend that what you said is true (and no, It isn't), your thesis is against you, 'cause the OP, loading the game, flip the coin all the time for the first time. 

So probability doesn't change.

It's not. It's like flipping a coin, getting heads, then you put it in your pocket, then you bring it out again, flip it, get heads, put it back in the pocket, repeat 63 times. Does putting the coin in the pocket erases your memory of flipping it before that? Does putting it in the pocket will make you flip heads 63 times in a row? The OP is expressing concerns that the outcome is decided before the game is played. If the game is not biased (I'm not saying it is!), how reloading and getting the same result 61 times is helping arguing his statement? We can't reload life, but if we could surely there will be greater variety of outcomes, because people are unpredictable and will take different decisions in identical situations, that's the main thing that distinguishes us from the machines. Also, I guess the OP have tried different formations, tactics and players during all these 63 replays, so there's the human factor, the outcomes must be different too.

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Coin flips aside, results aren't pre-determined. When you start a match, the game doesn't even yet know the final score. While some games (not FM) conjure up a result and then show you highlights that fit the result, this isn't what FM does. It takes all the detailed ME calculations, for every player, multiple times a second (I forget whether it's 16 or 24 times a second) and then whatever the result is at the end of the half, is the result. Then when you do your team talk and resume the 2nd half, it does the same thing.

That's what makes the ME so difficult and delicate to balance. It needs to be balanced to not produce crazy scorelines and at the same time produce realistic stats (shot counts, passes and pass completion, assist locations, types of goals etc) and also resemble actual football.

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Wow, everyone apparently has a sketchy understanding of probability. Anyway, Coin tosses and FM are really not comparable. For starters, the probability at play in football matches is certainty not independent events! But I really don't want to get dragged into a debate on probability theory, I spend enough of my life doing that. 

Results are not predetermined. 

On 26/01/2019 at 01:01, TheOriginalJimiVegas said:

I don't care what anybody says, this is not realistic. 36 games in a season - no team wins every single one. By definition, nothing I've done has influenced the outcome of this match.

 

This is a wonderfully ad hoc assertion. You cannot compare replaying the same game 62 times with the number of games in a season. The situation you describe is completely and utterly different. Replaying a game is not something you can do, for starters. In addition, you are playing a computer game. All the choices up to this point (your form, team talks, media interactions, moral, and the same for the other side) have a value. This value is saved and reloaded when you load the game. It provides the same (or very similar, since you will change a few things every time) starting input for the ME. So I am unsure why you expect things to change. There is no random seed you regenerate when you reload, things do not reset. 

Does this mean you cannot win the game? Of course it does not. It means you are more likely to lose the game than win it, but that is life. You have to work extra hard to get a result (and I do not mean by replaying it over and over again). 

Let's tackle the final sentence that I quote. Of course something you have done has influenced the result. You select the team, select the tactic, give the team talks, manage player moral, sign the players, interact with the media, etc. All of this can influence a match. However, the same goes for the AI manager. You are falling into the trap of assuming everything that goes wrong is the fault of the game, while you are happy to claim everything that goes right is down to you. We all do this, so I am not having a go, but sometimes it is better to accept a loss, and let it go. 62 replays of a game would take me months.

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The odds of losing or winning a match are ofc predetermined by the decisions you make on the Transfmarket, the Training, the Setup, etc.

Lucien Favre once said that 80% of the success in a Season depend on your Actions in the Transfermarket.

I once bought a Goalkeeper who really looked like a big improvement on the GK-Position but he lost me every single match he ever played...

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I won't be dragged into wide mathematical discussion here, and I'm sorry I ever mentioned coin flips seeing how this is evolving.

*Makes a mental note to never talk about the Monty Hall problem here*

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The secret that no one is telling you is that industrial sized bags of bon bons sent to SI HQ down in London with your steam username is the way to win every game. 

What happens otherwise is the increasingly ever self aware AI that SI are developing is punishing you more extremely and more egregiously for each month that passes without bon bon tribute.

- - -

It is daft to sit and think for a moment the sheer magnitude of bug reports submitted every year on the various elements of the game that can directly influence a match before its even kicked off are allegedly for nought because its actually superficial. It would be such an elaborate hoax for SI to pull off that you couldn't even be mad if it was true. Simulating an entire morale and mentality system that aims to bring the concepts of complacency and overconfidence as well as anger and frustration but it actually having zero impact would be hilarious. 

If you save on a match day you've already fixed in place a whole variety of variables each time you reload. You of course still have a far significantly larger amount to influence still but let's use a racing game as a comparison because a lot of these actually seem to have a feature these days that let you re-live the moment to try and escape your failure. You can 'rewind' back to a point, so let's say there's a corner you don't see coming and are still accelerating and ultimately approaching at 100mph in the game. You smash into a wall, lose 10 places, woe is me the game is rigged bringing corners out of nowhere. It's like it knew you were going fast so put a corner there. 

But you rewind. You can undo the untold destruction you did to your ego! Happy days. But, 15 yards out from the corner you're still going at 80mph. You've got more influence and control knowing how it went the first time, but you can't change the poor decisions you made before you get back to this snapshot in time. This is the equivalent of reloading on a match day when you've already laid a poor foundation over the last few weeks. You might have been winning games, just as you were winning the race before. It's almost like there's no guarantee that because things were going well before, they will continue to go well.

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