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jujigatame

Home advantage seems far too strong

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In my current EPL season (about 30 matches in) the top 3 clubs in the away table have away goal differentials of 0, 5, and 0.  Looking at the prior seasons in my FM career it seems rare for teams to have a +10 goal differential in away matches across full seasons.  Only the most dominant teams do it, maybe 1 or 2 per season.  Yet in this year's real-life EPL, 4 clubs are already at +10 or better and we're not even that far into the season.  And looking historically it's common for 5 teams per season to have +10 goal differentials away.

Am I off base or is home advantage at least a bit out of wack here?

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Yea at home is so easy to win...for example in CL  if you play offensive football at home and get few goals , probably if you will more defensive away and managed not to lose with more than you scored you will go to another round...

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9 hours ago, jujigatame said:

In my current EPL season (about 30 matches in) the top 3 clubs in the away table have away goal differentials of 0, 5, and 0.  Looking at the prior seasons in my FM career it seems rare for teams to have a +10 goal differential in away matches across full seasons.  Only the most dominant teams do it, maybe 1 or 2 per season.  Yet in this year's real-life EPL, 4 clubs are already at +10 or better and we're not even that far into the season.  And looking historically it's common for 5 teams per season to have +10 goal differentials away.

Am I off base or is home advantage at least a bit out of wack here?

I used to have that against the top 5 clubs in the world in fm17 through 19 especially man city. Until i stopped getting matched with man city and i got my sanity back. I didn't lose or anything but i was barely scraping draws. What can you do... I mean i don't always like making superteams so i guess i deserve to struggle, am i right SI? X)

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Yea it seems in FM19 you need an extremely strong squad to have a positive goal differential away from home, and goal differentials are much worse away than home for almost every team.  Whereas IRL it is much more variable and you have clubs like Tottenham and Crystal Palace this season who unexpectedly do much better away.

I wish I understood how FM models home advantage.  It's always been a bit mysterious to me.  Home advantage IRL is mysterious enough, as the mechanisms by which it works are not very well understood, so modeling it in a simulation is always going to be fraught with peril.

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1 hour ago, jujigatame said:

I wish I understood how FM models home advantage.  It's always been a bit mysterious to me.  Home advantage IRL is mysterious enough, as the mechanisms by which it works are not very well understood, so modeling it in a simulation is always going to be fraught with peril.

It's far too simplistic to think of "home advantage" as an artificial mechanic causing this. You would need to do a lot of analysis into how teams set up home and away and how aggressive they are with the initial setups and decision making in both cases. I'd bet it's more of a tactical issue than anything else, but I have not looked into it. Have you done any digging into this?

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5 hours ago, jujigatame said:

Home advantage IRL is mysterious enough

It's not really that mysterious. Familiarity of surroundings, no travelling, and the majority of the crowd behind you are all factors that go into this. 

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3 hours ago, HUNT3R said:

It's far too simplistic to think of "home advantage" as an artificial mechanic causing this. You would need to do a lot of analysis into how teams set up home and away and how aggressive they are with the initial setups and decision making in both cases. I'd bet it's more of a tactical issue than anything else, but I have not looked into it. Have you done any digging into this?

The entirety of my digging is comparing 5 years worth of RL home/away tables with 5 years of FM home/away tables, which seems to indicate there is a pervasive discrepancy.  It could be a primarily tactical issue, although I have some doubts about that since I play identical tactics home/away and I see pretty big, consistent differences in home/away goal differential.  If it was tactical, that means that willingness to play more aggressively (from AI home teams) is consistently beneficial to them.

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1 hour ago, Dagenham_Dave said:

It's not really that mysterious. Familiarity of surroundings, no travelling, and the majority of the crowd behind you are all factors that go into this. 

It's pretty mysterious, seeing that there have been studies attempting to explain it and most have been fairly inconclusive.  I mean, how does the crowd being behind you provide any real tangible benefit on the field?

The best explanations I've heard are a combination of travel (less rest) and referee bias.

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I haven't found this to be the case. When playing relegation fodder at home, it's always a challenge to break down their 100% defensive tactics. It's true that once you get a goal, things open up more, but I've been "FM'd" a lot by very poor teams who keep 10 men behind the ball. 

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21 minutes ago, jujigatame said:

It's pretty mysterious, seeing that there have been studies attempting to explain it and most have been fairly inconclusive.  I mean, how does the crowd being behind you provide any real tangible benefit on the field?

The best explanations I've heard are a combination of travel (less rest) and referee bias.

Playing in front of your own supporters would provide you with a bit of extra motivation. 

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6 minutes ago, Weller1980 said:

Playing in front of your own supporters would provide you with a bit of extra motivation. 

That's pretty handwavey and impossible to verify.  In my (admittedly minor) experience in sports competitions, you can also gain motivation from competing in front of a hostile crowd.  Sort of a "I'll shut these assholes up" kind of thing.

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That said in real footie, in any of the top leagues, it's Always exclusively the more "dominant" sides that tend to have a really positive away record (WDL included). Whenever a Team tends to take more Points away than at home, much can oft be explained by a random blip -- in particular considering the Tiny sample size of but 30-40 Matches. Exclusions to this tend to be extremely balanced leagues (like the MLS, where even the conference Champs on Occasion go with a negative or barely balanced away record), or well,... corrupt ones (Nigeria etc. where there are barely any away wins at all, whilst at home every Team wins everythins). FM has never modeled this, btw. Including the possible influence of the huge travel distances in the MLS, possibly contributing to things. "Home Advantage" as to FM has Always been fairly vanilla across all Tiers, with the biggest influence being how balanced the leagues are overall.

There Always seemed to be a bias of sorts inherent to the Code. However, AI is also coded to tactically Play and push for the win more at home, and vice versa. In bookies odds IRL, if Teams are roughly considered equal, the Price on the home side is Always significantly Shorter than on the away side (typically the odds imply a likelyhood of ~40-50% of the home side Winning, and ~25-35% for the away win). Typical more popular examples of this tend to be clashes between Madrid and Barcelona, etc.

Edited by Svenc

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23 hours ago, jujigatame said:

 I mean, how does the crowd being behind you provide any real tangible benefit on the field?

 

Are you serious? 

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4 hours ago, Dagenham_Dave said:

Are you serious? 

Yes, I'm serious.  I think most conventional wisdom bandied about by sports fans is rubbish.  The idea that the home crowd making a lot of noise will "lift" the athletic performance of the club they're rooting for is one of those unprovable truisms that isn't grounded in reality.

Edited by jujigatame

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Homeadvantage comes somewhat from intimidating the Referee, the Homeplayers wanting not to look bad in front of so many Fans eyes, the Knowledge of the Turf, a selffullfilling prophecy spiral, Players who would play better without any crowd crumbling under the pressure while others thrive from it and sometimes a lack of exploitation of the psychology of a Home Team Environment.

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Referee bias is one of the more plausible mechanisms by which home advantage could work.

Basketball has been shown to have an extremely strong home advantage, and it's a sport where the referees have a lot of influence on the game.

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17 hours ago, jujigatame said:

Yes, I'm serious.  I think most conventional wisdom bandied about by sports fans is rubbish.  The idea that the home crowd making a lot of noise will "lift" the athletic performance of the club they're rooting for is one of those unprovable truisms that isn't grounded in reality.

Well its not only about "noise". Some fans can create an extremely hostile environment where for 90 minutes you keep hearing insults, threats and overall you feel very unwelcome :-D

The argument about knowledge of surroundings is not very valid in my opinion as teams play each other all the time so they know away stadiums pretty well.

It is definitely a combination of a number of factors which cannot be really quantified I guess.

But I agree, home advantage really seems to be overpowered in FM and it has been like that for a long time.

Edited by Martin#

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So Liverpool ended up winning the league in that season I was referring to.  Their GD at home was +50, away was only +10.  All of their 6 losses were away.  At home they were nearly unbeatable and only dropped 2 points to a single draw.  Tottenham finished 2nd in the league, they were also unbeaten at home (17-2-0, +42 GD) yet actually managed a negative (-2) goal differential away.

I was managing Everton and was +26 at home and -15 away, despite playing identical tactics.

This feels way off.  Dominant teams IRL are usually nearly as dominant away.  In FM it's like playing 2 totally different teams.

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13 hours ago, jujigatame said:

This feels way off.  Dominant teams IRL are usually nearly as dominant away.  In FM it's like playing 2 totally different teams.

In Serie A this season, Napoli are 2nd with a goal difference of +18 at home, and +3 away. The top 6 sides in Italy have lost a combined total of 8 games at home so far this season. with Juventus and Napoli unbeaten and Inter & Roma having lost just one each. AC Milan sit in 6th place having won just two of their nine away games. 

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18 hours ago, jujigatame said:

I was managing Everton and was +26 at home and -15 away, despite playing identical tactics.

This was my point earlier. You were the only team in the entire league to use a completely identical tactic. In addition, they also make changes based on what's happening.

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5 hours ago, Dagenham_Dave said:

In Serie A this season, Napoli are 2nd with a goal difference of +18 at home, and +3 away. The top 6 sides in Italy have lost a combined total of 8 games at home so far this season. with Juventus and Napoli unbeaten and Inter & Roma having lost just one each. AC Milan sit in 6th place having won just two of their nine away games. 

You've cherry picked the biggest home/away GD gulf in Serie A.  On average there is only a 5-6 goal difference.  In FM the average seems to be more like 20-30.  IRL a dominant team like Juve will still only drop a handful of points away.  In FM that's very rare, even the best teams drop a lot of points away.

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54 minutes ago, HUNT3R said:

This was my point earlier. You were the only team in the entire league to use a completely identical tactic. In addition, they also make changes based on what's happening.

Right but even AI controlled teams are demonstrating this issue.  So if it's happening to me, and it's happening to AI, it implies that the tactics aren't the deciding factor and that this magnitude of home advantage is baked into the ME.

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Just now, jujigatame said:

Right but even AI controlled teams are demonstrating this issue.  So if it's happening to me, and it's happening to AI, it implies that the tactics aren't the deciding factor and that this magnitude of home advantage is baked into the ME.

You're making assumptions about it being a random mechanic. As said, you'd need to dig into it in detail. Teams may be too cautious, too easily away from home, for instance. You might be too aggressive. In-game decision making could be too aggressive or too cautious. Etc. There could be a lot of factors at play.

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I certainly wouldn't call it "random" but it seems to be a pervasive issue.  If it is purely tactical (AI opponents playing too conservatively away) that means that cautious tactics must be inherently ineffective.  But I'm not sure I believe that to be true.

It would be nice if someone from FM would actually tell us how home advantage is modeled in the ME, but I've never been able to get a straight answer on that.

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27 minutes ago, jujigatame said:

I certainly wouldn't call it "random" but it seems to be a pervasive issue.  If it is purely tactical (AI opponents playing too conservatively away) that means that cautious tactics must be inherently ineffective.  But I'm not sure I believe that to be true.

It would be nice if someone from FM would actually tell us how home advantage is modeled in the ME, but I've never been able to get a straight answer on that.

You got a specific answer from SI when you created a thread in 2015 asking the same thing. You had a similar answer, not sure if from SI or not, the year before.

 

 

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Right, that wasn't much of an answer. Just a confirmation that there is some form of home advantage in place. I wish they would be more explicit about how it's modeled but maybe they consider it part of the game's "secret sauce" so to speak.

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On 20/01/2019 at 08:49, jujigatame said:

Yes, I'm serious.  I think most conventional wisdom bandied about by sports fans is rubbish.  The idea that the home crowd making a lot of noise will "lift" the athletic performance of the club they're rooting for is one of those unprovable truisms that isn't grounded in reality.

Have you ever spoken to a player who plays in front of a home stadium? 

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2 hours ago, jujigatame said:

Right, that wasn't much of an answer. Just a confirmation that there is some form of home advantage in place. I wish they would be more explicit about how it's modeled but maybe they consider it part of the game's "secret sauce" so to speak.

Tbh, you don't need to know that. You know there's a slight advantage. So logically any bigger discrepancies in what you see, isn't because of this.

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30 minutes ago, HUNT3R said:

Tbh, you don't need to know that. You know there's a slight advantage. So logically any bigger discrepancies in what you see, isn't because of this.

Of course I don't NEED to know that.  I'm just interested.

And I think it's more than a slight advantage, perhaps more than SI are intending it to be.  Hell I'm a third of the way into my next season now and Tottenham already has a +23 GD through 6 home matches.

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i rotate heavily, usually have "team a" and "team b". i never use "team b" away, because it's almost certain loss. "team b" will beat all teams at home (except top 4) easily, though. team b will even lose away cup games to lower tier teams, while it will beat them by several goals at home. i think there definitely is a big home advantage (or a big away disadvantage) and i also feel it's unrealistic.

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On ‎18‎/‎01‎/‎2019 at 21:50, jujigatame said:

 If it was tactical, that means that willingness to play more aggressively (from AI home teams) is consistently beneficial to them.

AI tend to Play for the win more at home and tend to be more Content with draws (sometimes even not losing "too big", which has been an AI match Approach since forever) away. That's Always going to influence. On their more conservative approaches, they barely create opportunity but from set piece Play, isolated moves, etc. Traditionally, you don't concede much from that. However, FM19's set piece and Long shot conversion seems to look curious…. still Ai on the defensive barely create shots full stop as the more conservative approaches are (traditionally) way too extremely focused on compressing the space in the final third of the pitch.

There is a coded bias, but I doubt SI would give it away entirelly. It's likely based on the more common Research on the subject, suggesting what the possible influences are. If all they could consider was 100% fool proof research, they shouldn't simulate Football non-stop, as it's far from an understood "science" at all, which is parts of it's (random) charm. :D [Arguably, it's one of the worst sports to simulate in a sense -- in particular if the main attraction to the audience is them making the difference at any one point of the gameplay]

Edited by Svenc

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