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B. Oddie

Frustrating striker problem.

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Good morning all,

I've been playing FM on and off for years but have encountered an annoying problem with Target Man.

We all know that Target Men are there to be the muscle of the attackers and hold the ball up for someone else to finish it off. However, my man arses about in the box and simply stops in one-on-one situations. 

Annoyingly, he's scored 14 goals in 29 games which I'm pleased about, but he could have nearly doubled that tally if he took his chances.

His morale is always very good/superb. Never complacent. 13 for finishing and 12 for composure.

I play him with a poacher and an Attacking Mid (support).

Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!

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6 hours ago, B. Oddie said:

 

We all know that Target Men are there to be the muscle of the attackers and hold the ball up for someone else to finish it off. However, my man arses about in the box and simply stops in one-on-one situations. 

As in he just stops running?

You might want to get an example of when he does it & report in on the bug boards 

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12 hours ago, eye-switcher said:

No its not just your tactics, its a general problem with strikers in the box. Watch a full game and see how they react in the box they are lethargic. IF the ball isnt directly directed to them then they dont move. Thats not your Fault. I have Suarez, someone that in real life goes on everything. Here he just doesnt move. Its a ME issue. 

He seems somewhat arguing it from a different point, not sure. :)

He's arguing that based on the amount of chances his forward has, he would comfortably score double. In other words, in spite of the ME inherent movement issue, he still has plenty opportunity taken.

Let's take Suarez. Suarez consistently has 4 attempts per match in football that is on plain average (Messi 5, CR7 7 btw). We cannot know for sure, but if FM were somewhat "accurate", even the bigger chances it would produce each in-game would be roughly akin to the chance of you rolling heads if you flip a coin. And the player' finishing ability really wouldn't make that huge a difference, as on competitive levels, the margins between players are small. A typically one on one scenario would be a 1 in 3 chance each, btw. which is roughl the chance you have if you take a six sided dice and roll either a 5 or 6. And outside of tap-ins and penalties, the forward typically not in the advantage to score. If FM were to simulate wildly different, it wouldn't simulate football. Whilst nobody can put an exact number on any chance really, the ballparks are generally well understood. This is football DNA and the prime reason it's such a low scoring sports. No less as the attackers are only ever allowed their head+feet and try to hit a specific target. Whilst the defenders (keepers) are allowed their hands, and only need to deflect the resulting shot in a direction, any direction, off that target.

So, to produce a goal per match average, a forward would need to find himself into decent opportunity ever single game. Multiple ones. Unfortunately FM doesn't collect all that many data. Like from which positions does a forward finish? Does he do such from open play or from set pieces (packed boxes?). HOwever, his profile would typically display how many shots he takes. From my experience, if you don't get a forward having at least 3.5+ plus average per game, he usually doesn't (and arguably) shouldn't approach a goal scored per game. Even on FM, surely not all chances are tap-ins?

 

Even if that wasn't his point, still something worth considering on any release imo.

Edited by Svenc

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20 horas atrás, Svenc disse:

And the player' finishing ability really wouldn't make that huge a difference, as on competitive levels, the margins between players are small.

Then since you say finishing is not important is it better to look for strikers with low finishing so it takes up less CA for his other attributes (since finishing consumes a lot of CA for a striker)?

Edited by GoldenGoal

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On 15/11/2018 at 11:55, eye-switcher said:

No its not just your tactics, its a general problem with strikers in the box. Watch a full game and see how they react in the box they are lethargic. IF the ball isnt directly directed to them then they dont move. Thats not your Fault. I have Suarez, someone that in real life goes on everything. Here he just doesnt move. Its a ME issue. 

I agree. My top scorers are all midfielders, decent strikers have one goal in 10+ matches, and on the highlights seem to always be facing the wrong way when receiving the ball, then they just stand still and wait for a defender to take the ball off them.

 Something isn't quite right with the ME.

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Theres a thread in the match engine bugs forums that touches on how forwards just seem to run into the box and stand around no matter what role/duty they are on. Seems to be a transition issue. 

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7 minutes ago, Siven said:

Theres a thread in the match engine bugs forums that touches on how forwards just seem to run into the box and stand around no matter what role/duty they are on. Seems to be a transition issue. 

Ah good to know, thanks

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The game seems to decide that your Striker won't score in some games as well.

I'm playing in the VNL and quite often this season the ME will decide that my Striker isn't going to score and is going to have a bad game. When this happens, no matter how many chances he gets, he won't score.

He will pass to the goalie or to a friend in the crowd but will refuse to score.

About 50% of the time, replacing him with any other striker will result in goals.

I want to manage a team not study for my psychology degree.

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19 hours ago, Damedius said:

The game seems to decide that your Striker won't score in some games as well.

I'm playing in the VNL and quite often this season the ME will decide that my Striker isn't going to score and is going to have a bad game. When this happens, no matter how many chances he gets, he won't score.

He will pass to the goalie or to a friend in the crowd but will refuse to score.

About 50% of the time, replacing him with any other striker will result in goals.

I want to manage a team not study for my psychology degree.

It's most likely scripted "goal drought", the worst feature of FM, your striker will not score before 10-15 goalless hours pass. Try to set him as penalty taker even if he got low attribute, it may break the drought earlier (but prepare for missed penalties too).

I experienced situations when 3 of my 4 strikers were "on drought" and 4th was injured. I played with center-backs as strikers in important matches.

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Do you know who Cristiano Ronaldo is? A decent ST that during last 7-8 years scored more goals than matches played. Well, in my career he NEVER scored in a 1v1 against the GK and I am talking about dozens of cases

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My strikers suck in FM19 thus far (slow, hold the ball, horrible finishes, etc.). When I set tactics to "shoot more often", it's the midfielders who score. Then, in set pieces, it's the defenders who do the job. Some tweaks in the coding are needed.

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21 hours ago, Xeewaj Q. said:

It's most likely scripted "goal drought", the worst feature of FM, your striker will not score before 10-15 goalless hours pass. Try to set him as penalty taker even if he got low attribute, it may break the drought earlier (but prepare for missed penalties too).

I experienced situations when 3 of my 4 strikers were "on drought" and 4th was injured. I played with center-backs as strikers in important matches.

You....you actually believe this?! :D

Honestly, it's best not to try to pass off this sort of nonsense as fact.

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46 minutes ago, RTHerringbone said:

You....you actually believe this?! :D

Honestly, it's best not to try to pass off this sort of nonsense as fact.

Believe... what? Goal drought? I see them every season for most strikers, it's very rare when striker can avoid goal drought for an entire season. Passed 2 seasons on the current save, from 8 striker years (2 years x 4 strikers) got 7 goal droughts.  Should I not believe my eyes?

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You shouldn't believe it's scripted, because it isn't.

Anyway, goal droughts in real life are very common. Kane just ended a 7 match goalless run for England. Isn't Lukaku on a barren run at the moment? I'm sure there are plenty of examples across world football.

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Berahino and Benteke would love a goal drought... Would mean people still remember the last time they did score 

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6 minutes ago, RTHerringbone said:

You shouldn't believe it's scripted, because it isn't.

Anyway, goal droughts in real life are very common. Kane just ended a 7 match goalless run for England. Isn't Lukaku on a barren run at the moment? I'm sure there are plenty of examples across world football.

Wait first you mock him for saying it's scripted, everything in the game is scripted .

Then you state that it happens in real life.

So did SI script the game like real life or not?

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1 minute ago, Damedius said:

Wait first you mock him for saying it's scripted, everything in the game is scripted .

Then you state that it happens in real life.

So did SI script the game like real life or not?

Stop trying to twist semantics to suit some conspiracy theory.

There is nothing hard-coded in FM to force strikers to endure goalless runs.

It might still happen that your striker doesn't find the net for a few games, but it isn't enforced by some arbitrary code.

If it happens, it will be due to a plethora of other factors. Blame some scripting that doesn't exist if you like, whatever floats your boat.

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3 minutes ago, RTHerringbone said:

Stop trying to twist semantics to suit some conspiracy theory.

There is nothing hard-coded in FM to force strikers to endure goalless runs.

It might still happen that your striker doesn't find the net for a few games, but it isn't enforced by some arbitrary code.

If it happens, it will be due to a plethora of other factors. Blame some scripting that doesn't exist if you like, whatever floats your boat.

So the game doesn't script scorers to have goalless runs like they do in real life?

You seem to know a lot about the game's code. Maybe you could share a little  more about what you know about how the game is coded.

Edited by Damedius

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12 минут назад, Damedius сказал:

Wait first you mock him for saying it's scripted, everything in the game is scripted .

 

He means that SI didnt script count of goals in season. Btw I have 3 points of this discuss without searching, just noticed while playing

1) In FM18 my WB had few the same red cards in the same place  with one particular tactic. After the third red card I deleted FM18 (and install it again one week after this)

2) Also in FM16 I had "goal drought" the same months every season with my favourite tactic

3) If I use powerful tactic my players can do everything. Better dribling, better accuracy, even freekicks better. Change tactic - they immediately lose power. That's confusing

Edited by Novem9

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14 minutes ago, RTHerringbone said:

You shouldn't believe it's scripted, because it isn't.

Anyway, goal droughts in real life are very common. Kane just ended a 7 match goalless run for England. Isn't Lukaku on a barren run at the moment? I'm sure there are plenty of examples across world football.

Really it isn't? Strikers have at least a 75% chance to get a goal drought. No matter what recent form they and team have. He scored consistently, and suddenly - drought for 15 hours. Then he scores regularly again. It's probably the most idiotic thing in the game except woodwork.

Droughts happen IRL, but not that often. I remember solid world-class strikers in my saves who got droughts every single year.

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14 minutes ago, Xeewaj Q. said:

Really it isn't? Strikers have at least a 75% chance to get a goal drought. No matter what recent form they and team have. He scored consistently, and suddenly - drought for 15 hours. Then he scores regularly again. It's probably the most idiotic thing in the game except woodwork.

Droughts happen IRL, but not that often. I remember solid world-class strikers in my saves who got droughts every single year.

100%; stuff like this isn't scripted.

SI get enough mud slung at them for things that are hard to code (see all comments about the known existing Match Engine issues). It just isn't in their interests to force this sort of additional problem in users faces, which would result from explicit code to force the drought.

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19 minutes ago, Damedius said:

So the game doesn't script scorers to have goalless runs like they do in real life?

You seem to know a lot about the game's code. Maybe you could share a little  more about what you know about how the game is coded.

I know more about the impact that the spread of misinformation on a forum has. That's all I'm doing - if I see something that is incorrect, I'll call it out.

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12 минут назад, RTHerringbone сказал:

SI get enough mud slung at them for things that are hard to code (see all comments about the known existing Match Engine issues). It just isn't in their interests to force this sort of additional problem in users faces, which would result from explicit code to force the drought.

Something like this can exist because defenders resistance much weaker compared IRL. And still very large scores happen

So this is like a 'type' of crutch for not mentioning more convenient technology right now. Just version

I know one user which use low shots tactic knowingly and it's worked

Edited by Novem9

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9 minutes ago, RTHerringbone said:

100%; stuff like this isn't scripted.

SI get enough mud slung at them for things that are hard to code (see all comments about the known existing Match Engine issues). It just isn't in their interests to force this sort of additional problem in users faces, which would result from explicit code to force the drought.

Your 100% is based on what? But nevermind, it's pointless to talk with zealots.

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Look at it this way ... imagine a striker in game has stats that mean in a given situation he has a 75% chance of scoring, but misses. The next time he misses again. Pure random probability - the random number the computer generated fell in the 25% range each time.

But FM is more sophisticated than that, depending on his mental stats he now takes a confidence hit. the next time he has a shooting chance that probability drops to 60%, but he misses again. Now the confidence takes another knock, next shooting chance is 50:50. If he scores confidence goes back up and scoring chance goes back up. Another miss and scoring chance and confidence drop again.

This happens until the confidence and scoring probability floor is reached or he scores a goal.  This is how pure random chance in conjunction with weighted probabilities can produce runs that look like a natural goal drought.  

Whether the weightings on the confidence/score probability are right or the drops are too severe and cut in too soon is something that I'm sure SI have debates about when tuning the match engine. But that's a long way from BOOM! you're on a 15 hour goal drought.

Don't take any of the above as gospel as I've no inside knowledge, but I'm pretty sure something like that is what is happening.

 

Edited by rp1966

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Just now, Xeewaj Q. said:

Your 100% is based on what? But nevermind, it's pointless to talk with zealots.

RTH knows a LOT more about how the ME works than what you do, firstly. Second, droughts aren't scripted to happen. If droughts happen, it's a lack of confidence, chances etc. Nothing here is pre-determined, is what the point is.

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11 minutes ago, RTHerringbone said:

I know more about the impact that the spread of misinformation on a forum has. That's all I'm doing - if I see something that is incorrect, I'll call it out.

The fact is you don't know if it is or isn't misinformation. You also don't know if it is or isn't correct.

SI wants this game to be like real life.

If scorers have droughts in real life, what makes you think that SI wouldn't include this in the game.

 

 

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Pause for Smiles (not my video)

 

Edited by Novem9

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Just as a follow-up to my own point. If scoring a goal breaks the cycle and gets a striker scoring again, then increasing the probability of a goal should shorten the cycle. In theory that would mean that it would be worth making the striker on a drought the penalty taker as the probability of scoring from a penalty is logically much higher than most open play situations.

Of course the problem then becomes getting a penalty given ... :D

 

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13 minutes ago, HUNT3R said:

RTH knows a LOT more about how the ME works than what you do, firstly. Second, droughts aren't scripted to happen. If droughts happen, it's a lack of confidence, chances etc. Nothing here is pre-determined, is what the point is.

He is a developer and has an access to codebase? I guess the answer is no. Then he DOESN'T. I play FM since the first release and I can say with 75% probability when a goal is about to happen just by looking at how players move. And I see unrealistic goal droughts which happen to same players every year, roughly at the same time. And if you set those players as the penalty takers, he may miss 3-4 until 10 hours drought mark is passed. Don't belive me? Try it yourself, experiment. I've seen it a dozen times at least. Can you imagine, say, Cristiano Ronaldo missing 4 penalties in a row, even if he is drunk and crocodiles ate his right leg? NO. It's unrealistic. Top players getting goal drought every year in November is UNREALISTIC. Something should be done about that.

P.S. I see critics is not welcome on this forum. Don't want to go personal, but I already saw aggressive advocating examples from you in "we know better, you're not" style. Is it how you work?

Edited by Xeewaj Q.
Edit: as a moderator, you should try to be objective, not support your buddy.

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7 minutes ago, Damedius said:

The fact is you don't know if it is or isn't misinformation. You also don't know if it is or isn't correct.

SI wants this game to be like real life.

If scorers have droughts in real life, what makes you think that SI wouldn't include this in the game.

You're missing the point entirely, as appears to be your wont. I didn't say that goal droughts aren't in the game, what I said is that they are not a result of a pigeon-holed module which arbitrarily turns the tap off.

If a goal drought manifests itself in FM, it isn't because the "goal drought code" has kicked in, it's a combination of factors. In the same way as it's pointless trying to reason with apparent zealots such as myself, it's equally pointless trying to debate with people whose intentions are to find a story where there isn't one.

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Just now, Xeewaj Q. said:

 

P.S. I see critics is not welcome on this forum. Don't want to go personal, but I already saw aggressive advocating examples from you in "we know better, you're not" style. Is it how you work?

They're welcome but you will be told when you're wrong and you are. He's a former mod and has beta testing experience, all the while speaking to SI about these things.

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3 minutes ago, Xeewaj Q. said:

He is a developer and has an access to codebase? I guess the answer is no. Then he DOESN'T. I play FM since the first release and I can say with 75% probability when a goal is about to happen just by looking at how players move. And I see unrealistic goal droughts which happen to same players every year, roughly at the same time. And if you set those players as the penalty takers, he may miss 3-4 until 10 hours drought mark is passed. Don't belive me? Try it yourself, experiment. I've seen it a dozen times at least. Can you imagine, say, Cristiano Ronaldo missing 4 penalties in a row, even if he is drunk and crocodiles ate his right leg? NO. It's unrealistic. Top players getting goal drought every year in November is UNREALISTIC. Something should be done about that.

P.S. I see critics is not welcome on this forum. Don't want to go personal, but I already saw aggressive advocating examples from you in "we know better, you're not" style. Is it how you work?

No you're right it isn't.

Any criticism of the game is engaged by long time fans and moderators.

Dissent gets shut down quick. They like to contain any complaints to the Bugs Forum.

The feedback thread is full of hardcore fans telling people to not leave feedback critical of the game in the feedback thread.

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Just now, HUNT3R said:

They're welcome but you will be told when you're wrong and you are.

And here we are again. Can you disprove what I said with facts, not empty "you're wrong"? Your assertions are based on what? Did you see the FM code? Did you understand it? Facts, please, not zealotry.

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3 minutes ago, Damedius said:

No you're right it isn't.

Any criticism of the game is engaged by long time fans and moderators.

Dissent gets shut down quick. They like to contain any complaints to the Bugs Forum.

The feedback thread is full of hardcore fans telling people to not leave feedback critical of the game in the feedback thread.

That's sad. I gave positive feedback though as the beta was good. Same for steam review. Will not do it again.

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9 minutes ago, Xeewaj Q. said:

And here we are again. Can you disprove what I said with facts, not empty "you're wrong"? Your assertions are based on what? Did you see the FM code? Did you understand it? Facts, please, not zealotry.

This has been answered by myself and by RTH. If you want the thread closed, continue with the "zealotry" theme. I have told you in my previous post what factors can be involved and RTH has alluded to the same sort of factors.

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1 hour ago, RTHerringbone said:

Anyway, goal droughts in real life are very common. Kane just ended a 7 match goalless run for England. Isn't Lukaku on a barren run at the moment? I'm sure there are plenty of examples across world football.

A lot of perceived patches of "form" as such also simly come about by the fact that most forwards average but two attempts per match (CR7 7, Messi 5), whereas the average long-term conversion is pretty constant at 1 in 4 to 6. Additionally, very few chances actually see a forward in the advantage, as the edge is almost always on the defense/keeper, no less as... wait, noticing my first post, that would be a kind a repeat here. :D
 

As of this Ronaldo dude, last season he went onto probably the worst spell of a top player in the league in more recent memory (certainly the worst of any crowned World Footballer), and you simply can't explain it with stats anyway... but here goes: 100 shots, 4 goals in between September and January, one of which a penalty, the other a rebound of such. Which cost Madrid dearly, as most finishes fell to this guy. Probably a reason why you well never see anything quite like it in-game, as beneath the hood, the game is likely maths.

Let's assume it were to take the more common studies on finishes into account. Thus, the very best chances outside of tap-ins and the like would be like 50/50 affairs, and the average much, much less. How long can you throw a coin but getting heads if you roll it long enough? How long can you throw a dice not hitting the 6? How low long can you roll a ten sided dice not hitting the 10 (which would be your average shot conversion in footie).

Edited by Svenc

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12 minutes ago, HUNT3R said:

This has been answered by myself and by RTH. If you want the thread closed, continue with the "zealotry" theme. I have told you in my previous post what factors can be involved and RTH has alluded to the same sort of factors.

It WASN'T answered. "We know better" isn't an answer. "Factors" can produce drought for the same player in the same period of the year again and again? Come on. Maybe you'll say that identical PRIVATE transfer offers AT THE SAME TIME are totally random too?

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Just now, Xeewaj Q. said:

It WASN'T answered. 

Except

 

51 minutes ago, HUNT3R said:

Second, droughts aren't scripted to happen. If droughts happen, it's a lack of confidence, chances etc. Nothing here is pre-determined, is what the point is.

 

39 minutes ago, RTHerringbone said:

If a goal drought manifests itself in FM, it isn't because the "goal drought code" has kicked in, it's a combination of factors

It was. I expanded on what the factors might be. 

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Em 15/11/2018 em 16:27, B. Oddie disse:

Oh man. The opposition don't have the problem. They bury the ball in the back of the net whenever they can.

LOL....im suffering with that too, seems that the game really needs some adjusts

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Yeah Pep has it too. Last seasons conceded a ridiculous 6 shots average per match, and in aall the matches he conceded his opponents were more deadly than Madrid, Barcelona et all combined, lol.. Even United put 3 past him off 4 shots, who therwise barely averaged 2 per game, let alone struggling to put two past Burnley. Must have complained about the bad footballs in all those matches for sure. :D

 

15 minutes ago, Xeewaj Q. said:

It WASN'T answered. "We know better" isn't an answer. "Factors" can produce drought for the same player in the same period of the year again and again? Come on. Maybe you'll say that identical PRIVATE transfer offers AT THE SAME TIME are totally random too?

Wait, didn't you open that thread showing how you got your "cheap" guy scoring as often as Kane? I suggested you wait for the second season, as some "patterns" you notice may in tendency be produced as to how AI are programmed, likely. It's unfortunate, in a sense, as if it were "intelligent", things wouldn't happen that way, as they would adapt to circumstance in match (like your forward having it easier / too easy to find space score). As long as they perceive you as an underdog, they throw players in numbers forward, making it easier for your forward. Eventually, you overperform in the point tables. More and more sides are gonna approach you with cautious. Added point drops follow, in particular if you never change your approach some (generall scoring as such may be always some harder). Eventually, more and more opposition take you less serious, and it repeats. Some players have gotten into this cycle ever since.

 

 

 

Edited by Svenc

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2 minutes ago, HUNT3R said:

Except

 

 

It was.

I see nothing except unsubstantiated statements. You (and the other guy) never saw the code, and most likely it's beyond your understanding anyway, but you're absolutely sure how it works. If "random" factors produce the same results again and again, they're NOT RANDOM or something is fundamentally WRONG (like in the woodwork case). But nevermind. Let's all hail SI and accept wisdom shared by its zealots apologists.

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Just now, Xeewaj Q. said:

I see nothing except unsubstantiated statements. You (and the other guy) never saw the code, and most likely it's beyond your understanding anyway, but you're absolutely sure how it works. If "random" factors produce the same results again and again, they're NOT RANDOM or something is fundamentally WRONG (like in the woodwork case). But nevermind. Let's all hail SI and accept wisdom shared by its zealots apologists.

Ok. Thread closed. You were warned about not actually arguing the points, but yet you continue with it. We do have access to the people (SI) who do actually create the game code, so that's why I said (and RTH did) what I did. Use the feedback thread for feedback, the bugs forum (with evidence) for suspected bugs and the tactics forum if you need advice for striker issues. 

 

:thup:

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