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niklas88

Newgens (CA/PA spoilers without names)

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Did some research, I know it's a small sample size but just wanted to share my findings so far.

Simulated 2 different saves to 2041, so no original players left, with the exact same setup.

Only league active was Hong Kong with a large database.

These were the results, quite a bit of an increase in top quality players with high PA, don't know if this is intentional??

One thing I noticed regarding the 180+ CA players (did not have time today to check all the players) was they were all developed evenly in all of their physical attributes, with everyone having between 16-18 in them except jumping for the shorter players.

Almost no attribute was 20 on any player and the highest rated player in passing was 17.

Felt like all players were the same.

I dont know if it is because none of the league were activated or if this is the case all the time.. will have to do more tests but more leagues takes longer to simulate :)

fm19.png

Edited by niklas88

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3 ore fa, niklas88 ha scritto:

These were the results, quite a bit of an increase in top quality players with high PA, don't know if this is intentional?? 

I think it is.

More high PA players are needed, because many of them won't ever reach their potenial anyway, due to flawed personality or to AI's ****-poor development, so the game needs some extra supply to replenish the talent pool.

3 ore fa, niklas88 ha scritto:

One thing I noticed regarding the 180+ CA players (did not have time today to check all the players) was they were all developed evenly in all of their physical attributes, with everyone having between 16-18 in them except jumping for the shorter players.

On the other hand, for those with a high enough starting CA and decent attribute distribution and mental traits, the CA development curve is way too smooth and predictable, meaning a 18yo with high PA and ok CA surfacing at a decent club in a decent league will almost inevitably become a worldclass player.

Basically AI can't screw up a hot prospect, unlike real-life.

Which is why we have too many high PA players AND too many high CA players in the same gameworld. Some are bad, but the ok ones will always make it big

3 ore fa, niklas88 ha scritto:

Almost no attribute was 20 on any player and the highest rated player in passing was 17.

That's odd, it's probably a bit of a distribution issue... We've had some of those quirks for ages (slow keepers, low-aggression CBs, etc)

3 ore fa, niklas88 ha scritto:

Felt like all players were the same.

Again, successful prospects tend to follow a template, while other, more unorthodox are more likely to fail. Then again, we've had the ME and the game as a whole favouring specific type of players and others not so much.

3 ore fa, niklas88 ha scritto:

I dont know if it is because none of the league were activated or if this is the case all the time.. will have to do more tests but more leagues takes longer to simulate :)

That may be a factor too.

Usually with the Top5 leagues active and playable, outcomes are a bit more varied on the attributes front, but I wouldn't expect extreme changes in terms of PA distribution

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I find this interesting. Another poster noticed something similar a few days ago - I defended him and got slated by fanboys who insisted lots of high-PA regens is meaningless as they won't reach their PA anyway. But here you are showing that too many do attain high CA (not 100% PA is not the issue) and end up like clones. For me this is quite worrying. I understand that getting the right range and balance of regens is enormously complicated and SI never get it quite right, but I hope they take your observations on board and strive to further improve this aspect of the game next year.

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7 hours ago, RBKalle said:

I think it is.

More high PA players are needed, because many of them won't ever reach their potenial anyway, due to flawed personality or to AI's ****-poor development, so the game needs some extra supply to replenish the talent pool.

This is not the case, I included all players between 24-31, all +180PA players were developed and/or picked up by big clubs by that time.

 And all of them except the 5 players i highlighted are within 4 points of their PA and all of them  are really good players and starting for a big club except Krpan who is still a really good player with 20 caps.

It gets better when i lower the PA to 160 with some players still in their domestic league, china , mls or in some middle east club.

There are no players who for example doesn't develop at a big club and end up in league one, serie b or bundesliga 2.

I can't say for sure if some of them have already retired instead of settling for a lower tier team but that would also be odd.

 

8 hours ago, RBKalle said:

That may be a factor too.

Usually with the Top5 leagues active and playable, outcomes are a bit more varied on the attributes front, but I wouldn't expect extreme changes in terms of PA distribution

I will try this with the top leagues active but if that's the case then it's a huge thing not having the players in inactive league developing the same way.

fm19exp.png

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1 ora fa, niklas88 ha scritto:

This is not the case, I included all players between 24-31, all +180PA players were developed and/or picked up by big clubs by that time.

 And all of them except the 5 players i highlighted are within 4 points of their PA and all of them  are really good players and starting for a big club except Krpan who is still a really good player with 20 caps.

It gets better when i lower the PA to 160 with some players still in their domestic league, china , mls or in some middle east club.

There are no players who for example doesn't develop at a big club and end up in league one, serie b or bundesliga 2.

As I've said, this is an issue and, going by your screenshot, it looks like things have got worse with FM19...

I've just checked my old FM14 save (season 2049, Top 4 Leagues plus Nordic Countries playable) and:

Players younger than 31 with PA >180 = 85
CA: 190-200: 2
CA: 180-189: 12
CA: 170-179: 12
CA: 160-169: 17
CA: 150-159: 9
CA: 140-149: 6
CA: 100-139: 24
CA: < 100: 3

Clearly the distribution is much more organic and realistic.

Again, I suspect the fact in your experiment there were no active leagues may have caused an excess of players' development. Basically if left to its own devices, the gameworld works too well because of the lower details of the simulation.
So transfers are dictated by reputation and everything gets somewhat easier and more linear.

 

EDIT: I've also checked my FM18 save (year 2027, no Top Nation playable)

The distribution is still very similar to the one on FM14, so it must be your setup. Or FM19 is seriously unbalanced

 

Edited by RBKalle

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Those numbers looks much better. Im simulating right now with more leagues loaded. Will take some hours

But even if it is because of the inactive leagues I feel thats not a good excuse really. There will not be a good variation of players from those leagues and for their national teams

 

Edit: How man of those players in fm14 are 22 or younger?

Cause that will cause the lower tiers increasing due to them not reaching their prime yet

Edited by niklas88

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There's one substantial element that will be at play. Players with a bad mindset, those who come through with high PA's but no chance of fulfilling it because of weak hidden attributes often filter out of the game and retire. 

The database has only seen a growth of 500 players over 30+ years, the volume of regens coming through to replenish the numbers is going to be skewed.

Some nations are capable of producing literally thousands of regens, per year. It's ultimately far too limited. What % of the database is 16 years old or younger in 2041? This will likely be the last regen pool coming into the game (possibly some 2nd year players who came through at 14/15) but this is the number of players you'd then be looking at trying to emulate the production of global footballers. It's very likely this is why its flawed.

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So you are saying they are either top20 players or they retire. 

No in between? 

I can check an entire year of intakes to see what the numbers are

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No. 

I'm saying on the small database size (relatively speaking, as 10,000 players is quite small overall despite the use of the "large database" option), and inactive leagues likely creates a situation that more aggressively filters out undesirable players at all levels. 

It's ultimately not the typical way the game will be played, and the game will not have its regens balanced around a Hong Kong + Large Database setup. 

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That was always the case, the game needs a balance and the overall size of players has to be +- the same over the seasons. This means that you have less players with a very low PA/CA in the game if you play with a small db. 

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Around 1.5 years ago I made a thread about newgens and how they are broken and make the game unplayable for me once they completely take over and looks like not much has changed.

While my research (that I've also posted in bug reports but received no replies) yielded same results as yours (increase in high CA players) it wasn't the thing that made the game unplayable for me, but the fact that certain roles all but disappear from the game, most notably the inside forward.

I would appreciate it if you (or someone else) could also run the inside forward test on the 2019 version and compare key inside forward attributes of wrong footed AML/Rs between now and 2040+, something like minimum 12 per attribute (finishing, dribbling, passing, technique, decisions, off the ball).

Edited by Thorne

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4 hours ago, Thorne said:

Around 1.5 years ago I made a thread about newgens and how they are broken and make the game unplayable for me once they completely take over and looks like not much has changed.

While my research (that I've also posted in bug reports but received no replies) yielded same results as yours (increase in high CA players) it wasn't the thing that made the game unplayable for me, but the fact that certain roles all but disappear from the game, most notably the inside forward.

I would appreciate it if you (or someone else) could also run the inside forward test on the 2019 version and compare key inside forward attributes of wrong footed AML/Rs between now and 2040+, something like minimum 12 per attribute (finishing, dribbling, passing, technique, decisions, off the ball).

Was this the FM17 thread where SI looked at some stats and acknowledged that, at the very least, the development of the strength attribute was excessive?

It's a shame that two years later with all the changes that have happened to player development this is definitely not fixed. (I do wonder whether it's only a lower detail simulation for AI teams this doesn't apply to - some of my weaker players complain incessantly about strength training, possibly because they're set to not be able to improve it)

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6 hours ago, enigmatic said:

Was this the FM17 thread where SI looked at some stats and acknowledged that, at the very least, the development of the strength attribute was excessive?

It's a shame that two years later with all the changes that have happened to player development this is definitely not fixed. (I do wonder whether it's only a lower detail simulation for AI teams this doesn't apply to - some of my weaker players complain incessantly about strength training, possibly because they're set to not be able to improve it)

No, it was a thread about how there are no newgen inside forwards (among other things, but this was the biggest issue). I did receive a reply from SI/Neil Brock that it will be looked into if I posted it on the bug forums but apparently that never happened, the bug report didn't even receive a reply.

It looks to have been deleted by now but from memory my research yielded something like a 350% decrease in that specific type of player.

Edited by Thorne

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14 hours ago, Thorne said:

No, it was a thread about how there are no newgen inside forwards (among other things, but this was the biggest issue). I did receive a reply from SI/Neil Brock that it will be looked into if I posted it on the bug forums but apparently that never happened, the bug report didn't even receive a reply.

It looks to have been deleted by now but from memory my research yielded something like a 350% decrease in that specific type of player.

350% decrease? That's .... interesting. Just curious, if you have 100 of something one year, then the next year you have 1, how much of a decrease would that be described as?

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The game seems to favour specific "templates" (or attributes), which means the most successful newgens will almost inevitably look quite similar, also because the "imperfect" ones won't reach their peak or will stagnate and even retire early.

What I find really worrying though is that SI still look to focus on "statistically it's ok", like in many other areas of the simulated gameworld.

The fact the game manages to keep the amount of players in the db consistent with the original size (or with the one needed to run active leagues and competitions) and that on average the CA/PA is reasonably close to the starting db doesn't really mean much if the way to attain this goal is the creation of a plethora of high-PA monsters who are ready for top-level football at age 16 and will be worldbeaters by the time they're old enough to vote and drink.

A better AI development model is sorely needed, and possibly more variety in "workable" player templates. We shouldn't have like 6 Messis, 4 Ronaldos and a few Lewandowskis active in the same generation at the same time.

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On 12/11/2018 at 07:49, Thorne said:

Around 1.5 years ago I made a thread about newgens and how they are broken and make the game unplayable for me once they completely take over and looks like not much has changed.

While my research (that I've also posted in bug reports but received no replies) yielded same results as yours (increase in high CA players) it wasn't the thing that made the game unplayable for me, but the fact that certain roles all but disappear from the game, most notably the inside forward.

I would appreciate it if you (or someone else) could also run the inside forward test on the 2019 version and compare key inside forward attributes of wrong footed AML/Rs between now and 2040+, something like minimum 12 per attribute (finishing, dribbling, passing, technique, decisions, off the ball).

Sure, I can check that. IIRC there were a couple of those top players who were right footed AML and vice-versa. Did not check their attributes though.

I will report back but it takes a while to simulate with 20 leagues loaded on my subpar computer :)

 

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On 11/11/2018 at 11:48, RBKalle said:

As I've said, this is an issue and, going by your screenshot, it looks like things have got worse with FM19...

I've just checked my old FM14 save (season 2049, Top 4 Leagues plus Nordic Countries playable) and:

Players younger than 31 with PA >180 = 85
CA: 190-200: 2
CA: 180-189: 12
CA: 170-179: 12
CA: 160-169: 17
CA: 150-159: 9
CA: 140-149: 6
CA: 100-139: 24
CA: < 100: 3

Clearly the distribution is much more organic and realistic.

Again, I suspect the fact in your experiment there were no active leagues may have caused an excess of players' development. Basically if left to its own devices, the gameworld works too well because of the lower details of the simulation.
So transfers are dictated by reputation and everything gets somewhat easier and more linear.

 

EDIT: I've also checked my FM18 save (year 2027, no Top Nation playable)

The distribution is still very similar to the one on FM14, so it must be your setup. Or FM19 is seriously unbalanced

 

 

How many of those players in fm14 are 22 or younger?

Cause that will cause the lower CA tiers increasing due to them not reaching their prime yet.

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20 minuti fa, niklas88 ha scritto:

 

How many of those players in fm14 are 22 or younger?

Cause that will cause the lower CA tiers increasing due to them not reaching their prime yet.

In FM14:

30 players aged 21 or less with PA >180 (out of 85 aged 31 or less, so it's 35%)

CA >190: 1
CA 160-189: 6
CA 140-159: 7
CA 120-139: 11
CA 100-119: 4
CA <100: 1

 

In FM18:

60 players aged 21 or less with PA >180 (out of 98 aged 31 or less, 61% of the total)

CA >190: 0
CA 160-189: 5 (highest CA 179 and 174)
CA 140-159: 14
CA 120-139: 24
CA 100-119: 12
CA <100: 5

 

Apparently FM18 had TWICE as many hot prospects, but with a slightly slower development curve (which IMO is much fairer)

Now, if FM19 somewhat managed to merge FM14's high-speed development pattern with FM18's overabundance of talented prospects, we have a problem...

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On 11/11/2018 at 00:56, RBKalle said:

I think it is.

More high PA players are needed, because many of them won't ever reach their potenial anyway, due to flawed personality or to AI's ****-poor development, so the game needs some extra supply to replenish the talent pool.

On the other hand, for those with a high enough starting CA and decent attribute distribution and mental traits, the CA development curve is way too smooth and predictable, meaning a 18yo with high PA and ok CA surfacing at a decent club in a decent league will almost inevitably become a worldclass player.

Basically AI can't screw up a hot prospect, unlike real-life.

Which is why we have too many high PA players AND too many high CA players in the same gameworld. Some are bad, but the ok ones will always make it big

That's odd, it's probably a bit of a distribution issue... We've had some of those quirks for ages (slow keepers, low-aggression CBs, etc)

Again, successful prospects tend to follow a template, while other, more unorthodox are more likely to fail. Then again, we've had the ME and the game as a whole favouring specific type of players and others not so much.

That may be a factor too.

Usually with the Top5 leagues active and playable, outcomes are a bit more varied on the attributes front, but I wouldn't expect extreme changes in terms of PA distribution

This is a bit wide of the mark.

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As mentioned in another thread, newgen PA is largely immaterial in this context. It is CA that makes the difference.

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1 ora fa, Seb Wassell ha scritto:

This is a bit wide of the mark.

How so?

In previous editions we've had "epidemics" of specific roles with specific flaws. And generally speaking some players types tend to become rarer because of how their slightly less balanced attributes affect their development

1 ora fa, Seb Wassell ha scritto:

As mentioned in another thread, newgen PA is largely immaterial in this context. It is CA that makes the difference.

Which is why I listed the CA brackets for younger players with high PA...

The curve looks indeed better in FM18, which likely does mean at least 30-40% of the high-PA prospect won't in fact turn into CR7 or Messi, while in FM14 the success rate was higher but in a smaller talent pool

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1 hour ago, RBKalle said:

The curve looks indeed better in FM18, which likely does mean at least 30-40% of the high-PA prospect won't in fact turn into CR7 or Messi, while in FM14 the success rate was higher but in a smaller talent pool

It's something we are constantly working on :thup:

Our internal data shows an improvement this year, pleased to see you agree, although of course we are still looking to continue this improvement.

1 hour ago, RBKalle said:

How so?

The below -->

On 11/11/2018 at 00:56, RBKalle said:

I think it is.

More high PA players are needed, because many of them won't ever reach their potenial anyway, due to flawed personality or to AI's ****-poor development, so the game needs some extra supply to replenish the talent pool.

On the other hand, for those with a high enough starting CA and decent attribute distribution and mental traits, the CA development curve is way too smooth and predictable, meaning a 18yo with high PA and ok CA surfacing at a decent club in a decent league will almost inevitably become a worldclass player.

Basically AI can't screw up a hot prospect, unlike real-life.

Which is why we have too many high PA players AND too many high CA players in the same gameworld. Some are bad, but the ok ones will always make it big

 

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8 ore fa, Seb Wassell ha scritto:

The below -->

Il 11/11/2018 in 01:56 , RBKalle ha scritto:

More high PA players are needed, because many of them won't ever reach their potenial anyway, due to flawed personality or to AI's ****-poor development, so the game needs some extra supply to replenish the talent pool.

Unless I'm making stuff up, other Mods (or Devs? or people in-the-know) pretty much confirmed a higher amount of high PA players are needed to replicate the diversity of the original db (the game doesn't create 26yo players in their prime, late bloomers or aging superstars... so those types must be created in another way).

 

Quote
Quote

On the other hand, for those with a high enough starting CA and decent attribute distribution and mental traits, the CA development curve is way too smooth and predictable, meaning a 18yo with high PA and ok CA surfacing at a decent club in a decent league will almost inevitably become a worldclass player.

Basically AI can't screw up a hot prospect, unlike real-life.

Can you honestly deny once a newgen has a fair CA and a high PA, his path to superstardom is almost guaranteed?

In the game you can't really have a Francis Jeffers-like regression. Once he gets, say CA135/PA180 at age 18 and he's getting decent playing time at EPL level, unless he breaks both legs and/or his Ambition and other mental traits are completely rotten, he's gonna be a top striker for the next 15 years.

Conversely, an average Tier 2 striker who's 25 and CA120, won't become a world class striker, unlike guys like Drogba or Luca Toni.

Quote
Quote

Which is why we have too many high PA players AND too many high CA players in the same gameworld. Some are bad, but the ok ones will always make it big

Ok, the distribution seems to have improved a bit since FM18, along with a lower values for highest CA, at least as far as U21s are concerned.

Edited by RBKalle

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17 hours ago, Maaka said:

350% decrease? That's .... interesting. Just curious, if you have 100 of something one year, then the next year you have 1, how much of a decrease would that be described as?

My bad, 350% difference, not decrease.

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15 hours ago, niklas88 said:

Sure, I can check that. IIRC there were a couple of those top players who were right footed AML and vice-versa. Did not check their attributes though.

I will report back but it takes a while to simulate with 20 leagues loaded on my subpar computer :)

 

Don't bother if it's too much work. I thought you already had the saves ready in which case it would only take a few minutes. Saw someone else wondering the same thing in another thread, maybe I'll get the info from him :)

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5 hours ago, Thorne said:

My bad, 350% difference, not decrease.

Do you remember (roughly) the numbers?

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11 hours ago, RBKalle said:

In the game you can't really have a Francis Jeffers-like regression. Once he gets, say CA135/PA180 at age 18 and he's getting decent playing time at EPL level, unless he breaks both legs and/or his Ambition and other mental traits are completely rotten, he's gonna be a top striker for the next 15 years

tbf, there's a solid argument that Francis Jeffers was actually a CA135/PA140 striker IRL at the age of 18 despite what Arsenal thought, and those kind of players can get bought in game by top clubs and then gradually make their way down to lesser clubs via the bench and being released.

Don't think Jeffers' PA was given as high as 180 even by researchers wildly optimistic about his prospects at the time

If you're really unlucky there's a Michael Owen speed totally ****ed by recurring injury model in there which can effect genuinely good players as well; someone posted a thread complaining about an injury basically finishing Shaquiri as a top level winger.

 

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26 minuti fa, enigmatic ha scritto:

Don't think Jeffers' PA was given as high as 180 even by researchers wildly optimistic about his prospects at the time

CM01/02: CA150, PA -2 (which, IIRC, meant high-end random potential)

Same game: Drogba, CA95, PA115 :D

Hindsight being 20/20, of course Jeffers peaked at a young age and didn't have a higher potential, but we've seen many players with "actual" (ie. likely) high potential fizzle out and disappear down the pyramid or end up in some obscure second-rate league.

This of course isn't a problem if we say "his potential wasn't that high anyway" once a career is over or is winding down, but there MUST be players who genuinely could have done better but didn't, after a promising start or even after a reasonably long sting at a good-to-top level. In FM, the curve is more predictable and, barring serious injuries or gross mismanagement, you can't really screw up.

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27 minutes ago, RBKalle said:

In FM, the curve is more predictable and, barring serious injuries or gross mismanagement, you can't really screw up.

Players can develop at different rates throughout their careers in FM and therefore you can have late bloomers.

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1 hour ago, Simon Tipple said:

Players can develop at different rates throughout their careers in FM and therefore you can have late bloomers. 

Do you have any examples or figures on this? I would love to see them. I have never seen this though playing the game, admittedly I've never done any experiments or research like others in this thread but over my 1000s of hours each year I have never encountered a player who at the age of 25+ went form a low rep team(or lower league) to end up being a top player in a top league.  IRL we can look at Vardy or Lalana as recent examples as well as others mentioned here. I have seen players who had high PA who never made it at all, one player who stands out had 200PA but <120CA aged 29 who moved about smaller European teams but never left a mark.

 

Sorta related to this thread, I've been testing custom nation rules I've made so have had quite a few games where I went on holiday till 2040+ I never looked at hidden stats only curiously clicking about before going on to check things related to my database. I noticed a pattern on some mid tier payers, so decent to good players at lower end or mid tier premiership teams. They all seem to follow the same pattern good physicals, decent to good mental, but poor technical it was like all their CA was used up in the physical and mental stats, I never once noticed a player who had good to great technical stats but was let down by mental or physical. Again I only clicked about on a few players so I am only looking for reassurance not making accusations .

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20 hours ago, Maaka said:

Do you remember (roughly) the numbers?

Unfortunately I don't. All I remember that it went from to a decent amount in the original database to basically none in the future.

I found an example in my old thread, although not the best one: 8 years in the future, out of 247 newgen AMLs, only one has Finishing, Passing and Vision at least 11, whereas there are 164 out of 410 AMLs in original DB with those stats.

edit: AMLs with a natural right foot

edit2: just did a test on FM18 (yeah, I bought it :() and only 5 out of 396 newgens have those 3 stats at more than 11 in year 2031.

Edited by Thorne

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Finished my first simulation, this time to 2042.

Large Database, Active Lagues:

England (League 2)

Germany (Bundesliga 3)

Spain (Segunda B)

France (C.National)

Italy (Serie C)

Holland (Eerste Divisie)

CAPA.png.c08cd585fcf2c515ffbdd43e64a863b3.png

 

Looks a little bit better than with all leagues inactive but still not quite far off.

Out of all players with PA above 170 between age 24-32, 75 out of 128 were within 10 CA points of their PA and only 15 of them below 150 CA (lowest 117).

I removed players 23 or younger cause they might not be fully developed, yet 12 players between 21-23 hade a CA of 170 or higher with 2 of them having 196 & 197.

 

74 players had a 170+ CA

Best passing: 6 players @18, including one GK

Best first touch: 1 player @19 & 4 players @18

Best technique: 2 players @19 & 5 players @18

Best finishing: 1 player @18 & 6 players @17

 

Actually there was only 1(!) player, across all 74 players, with a technical attribute of 20 (an Ukrainian winger with 20 dribbling).

If i include Mental attributes 3 players had 20 vision, 2 players had 20 determination and 1 player hade 20 decisions.

The physical attributes had a few more 20s in Acceleration, Agility, Balance & Pace. Most players had almost all physical attributes between 15-18 except natural fitness and jumping.

Only one players had two 20s, a winger with 20pace and agility.

There are actually not many players with a 20 in the original database but there are fewer 20s and more high CA players in the future.

 

 

Regarding Inside Forwards

Players will be included in both positions if applicable:

Players Total(at least accomplished)

AML: 3069

AMR: 3438

 

Right footed AML, Left footed AMR:

Fairly Strong foot

AML: 70

AMR: 190

 

Strong foot

AML: 109

AMR: 171

 

Very Strong foot

AML: 885

AMR: 413

 

Total: 1770 (68 players could play in both wings) 

Players with at least 12 in Finishing, Dribbling, Technique, Off the ball, Passing & Decisions: 88

If I lower it to at least 11: 182

 

Edit: some text disappeared

Edited by niklas88

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4 hours ago, headshothitman said:

@niklas88 Can you post some regen screenshots of some of the top players in your game with their (CA/PA). It would be interesting to see the spread of stats in 2042 (relative to the leagues you've loaded)?

Sure, here are the Top 20 Outfielders and top 10 GK's

Top20.thumb.png.d1e6069c529ef5505b253aa0db95e823.png

Top10.thumb.png.3bab30afb3b1684ef641d942a28c255d.png

 

 

Edited by niklas88

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