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GOODNAME

And this is why the ME is broken

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Pathetic.

How on earth you can miss 3 Penalties in one game? 

Edited by GOODNAME

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Yeh that's pretty unusual.

Personally I'd be more concerned about having 24 shots versus the opposition's 4 and only drawing 1-1.

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5 minutes ago, GOODNAME said:

They not even hit the target.. 

Sorry man, I agree with you it's Pathetic

If i was you i would sell him lol

Sergio Aguero have missed pens for me, i wanted to sell him but hes too good to sell lol

Edited by kingking

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It is very unusual, but can happen.  Did you change the kicker each time?  Did your first taker have a history of missing penalties?

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There could be something about it if this was a frequent occurance. At least, SI may then be more likely to consider it "broken".

As it stands, and that's not defending the game, btw. let's take this from the top.


- Contrary to public perception, a penalty is in no way a certain goal. It for sure is much more likely to be a goal than a one on one scenario from open play. For one, the keeper isn't allowed to move off his line, effectively not able to make the target smaller for the forward. Then the forward doesn't have to trap the ball at any pace before applying the shot, nor is he under time pressure to do something. To cut that story short, penalties result in a goal 75% of the time.

- Contrary to public perception, the players on their respective levels don't make a league's difference. After all, they are competing against players (and keepers) of their level. "Bad" and "good" are very relative judgements associated to any player in any league in the world. When the average is ~75%, Messi et all score 80%+ long-term, so still don't convert one in about every fifth to sixth.

- Let's do the Maths thus. If a penalty is converted 75% of the time, that means it's not converted 25% of the time. Thus the probability of seeing three pens missed in sequence would be roughly 4%. In other words, in roughly 4 matches out of 100 that see three penalties, you would expect three of them to be missed in sequence. If the player is Messi, it may be a tad lower, but still a probability. Fm sees a load of matches and leagues simulated. There should be more instances of this, most definitely.

Now a more pressing question to ask may be whether matches with three penalties happen too frequently on FM. As we all know from Morata back in January -- if stuff happens in a single match, the overreaction begins across the shop -- in particular if coupled with that serioiusly whacked public perception and the inevitably Schadenfreunde on social media -- that is, if you don't happen to support or rely on the player in question for whichever reason.

Edited by Svenc

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Yeah, the ME is so broken they forced you to let the guy who'd already missed 2 penalties to take the 3rd.  Powerless you were.

It's a rare occurrence, absolutely, but it's far from impossible.  As waddlemagic said, Martin Palermo missed 3 in one game.  Looking at the match stats, it's easy to imagine the pressure building on the side that is absolutely dominating but can't seem to convert that into goals.  Missing one penalty increases pressure, missing a 2nd even more, so that when he steps up to take the 3rd, he's under immense pressure.  Not saying that's what's going on behind the scenes in the ME, but it's a perfectly logical situation to imagine.

The ME isn't "broken", not in this case.  This is just a very rare occurrence that didn't go your way.  I dare say you wouldn't be reacting the same had your opponent missed 3 (perfectly natural to think like that of course)

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3 minutes ago, forameuss said:

Yeah, the ME is so broken they forced you to let the guy who'd already missed 2 penalties to take the 3rd.  Powerless you were.

It's a rare occurrence, absolutely, but it's far from impossible.  As waddlemagic said, Martin Palermo missed 3 in one game.  Looking at the match stats, it's easy to imagine the pressure building on the side that is absolutely dominating but can't seem to convert that into goals.  Missing one penalty increases pressure, missing a 2nd even more, so that when he steps up to take the 3rd, he's under immense pressure.  Not saying that's what's going on behind the scenes in the ME, but it's a perfectly logical situation to imagine.

The ME isn't "broken", not in this case.  This is just a very rare occurrence that didn't go your way.  I dare say you wouldn't be reacting the same had your opponent missed 3 (perfectly natural to think like that of course)

Are you blind? 3 different players have missed penalties  

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1 minute ago, GOODNAME said:

Are you blind? 3 different players have missed penalties  

Blind?  No.  Not reading the penalty takers?  Admittedly, yes.  My bad.

The parts about the team confidence still stand though, even if the rest doesn't.  In fact, 3 different players missing penalties seems more likely to me than 1 player missing 3.

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2 minutes ago, GOODNAME said:

Are you blind? 3 different players have missed penalties  

A lot of pressure on the second taker knowing the other missed

And imagine by the time the third steps up

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Didn't it happen to Martin Palermo once?

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46 minutes ago, noikeee said:

Didn't it happen to Martin Palermo once?

Yep. 

Either way it's unusual. But calling the match engine broken over one rare but plausible incident is hyperbole 

Now if you were missing loads of penalties consistent, that's when I would start having a look. (average penalty conversion rate is 75%)

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Clearly never seen England in a penalty shootout if you think 3 different players can't miss. I think it was 2006 when Lampard, Gerrard and Carragher all missed?

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Probability of missing a penalty is around 0.25. So probability of missing three in a row is 0.25*0.25*0.25 = 0.015625, or 1.5625%. So it's rare, but will happen occasionally. Simply bad luck.

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I totally agree its very unusual but **** happens. I worry more about 8-0 games or 6-5 and stuff it got more and more frequently in the last releases. That points to a ME that has some serious flaws in its backbone a lot more.

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vor 16 Stunden schrieb kingking:

Sorry man, I agree with you it's Pathetic

If i was you i would sell him lol

Sergio Aguero have missed pens for me, i wanted to sell him but hes too good to sell lol

Shows exactly the mindset and why nothing is wrong wit ME according to this example. And why dont you sell Aguero hes so dumb he misses penalties..o myy go-o-o-o-o-od.

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29th June 2000 - semi-final of Euro 2000.

A gifted Holland team played an Italian side reduced to 10 men after 33m due to Zambrotta's sending off.

They then missed 2 penalties in normal time, leaving the score at 0-0.

The Golden Goal period failed to produce a goal so the match went to penalties. The Dutch managed to miss 3 more penalties during the shootout and were knocked out, with Italy progressing to the final.

It happens.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2000/jun/29/euro2000.sport5

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I have had two missed penalties in a match before, but never three. It is unusual, but not impossible. If this is the only time you ever saw it, then chalk it down to bad luck. If you see it often, then report it.

If we want to talk possible reasoning, we can. If it is not just random, lets discuss what it could be (and I do not think it is a bug, or if it is it is super super rare).

- What was moral like? Was it poor? I can imaging poor moral can lead to lack of confidence and hence missing.

- What about nerves? Were the players very nervous or nervous? Again, this can obviously lead to missing penalties.

- Was there pressure on this game? Did it matter towards qualification for something (champs league) or are you at the end of a close title battle? I just had my otherwise excellent side get trashed 4-0 in the final match of the year with the title on the line. Pressure made them play terribly, I imagine (I clearly did not do a good enough job to take pressure off them). 

- Speaking of pressure, you have clearly dominated the match but were losing or drawing for the entire match. Frustration and nerves at the lack of ability to break through could put lots of pressure on the kick taker. If the game remembers, then it could make the pressure on subsequent kickers worse.

Incidentally, if you had scored all three of those penalties, would you be reporting this as a bug? I find 3 penalties in one match weird anyway. I also understand you probably just want to vent frustration at not winning, but these things happen sometimes. 

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19 hours ago, Svenc said:

Thus the probability of seeing three pens missed in sequence would be roughly 4%. In other words, in roughly 4 matches out of 100 that see three penalties, you would expect three of them to be missed in sequence.

Spurs08 said above, but the probability would be ~1.56%, not 4%. 

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1 hour ago, sporadicsmiles said:

I have had two missed penalties in a match before, but never three. It is unusual, but not impossible. If this is the only time you ever saw it, then chalk it down to bad luck. If you see it often, then report it.

If we want to talk possible reasoning, we can. If it is not just random, lets discuss what it could be (and I do not think it is a bug, or if it is it is super super rare).

- What was moral like? Was it poor? I can imaging poor moral can lead to lack of confidence and hence missing.

- What about nerves? Were the players very nervous or nervous? Again, this can obviously lead to missing penalties.

- Was there pressure on this game? Did it matter towards qualification for something (champs league) or are you at the end of a close title battle? I just had my otherwise excellent side get trashed 4-0 in the final match of the year with the title on the line. Pressure made them play terribly, I imagine (I clearly did not do a good enough job to take pressure off them). 

- Speaking of pressure, you have clearly dominated the match but were losing or drawing for the entire match. Frustration and nerves at the lack of ability to break through could put lots of pressure on the kick taker. If the game remembers, then it could make the pressure on subsequent kickers worse.

Incidentally, if you had scored all three of those penalties, would you be reporting this as a bug? I find 3 penalties in one match weird anyway. I also understand you probably just want to vent frustration at not winning, but these things happen sometimes. 

All good points. And particularly true at the end. If you get three penalties, it's more likely than not - around 58% - that you'll miss at least one of them.

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Spurs08 said:

Probability of missing a penalty is around 0.25. So probability of missing three in a row is 0.25*0.25*0.25 = 0.015625, or 1.5625%. So it's rare, but will happen occasionally. Simply bad luck.

Thank for correcting my "roughly 4%". Must have hacked a wrong number into the Windows Calculator. :D In other words thus, in roughly 1-2 matches out of 100 where 3 penalties occur, you would expect it to happen. Given how many matches are simulated across FM's player base over the year, this should actually occur with some sensible frequency, in particular if you take all the AI vs AI matches into account as well. Now 4 or 5 missed penalties may be a bit more tricky. It's still not quite a billion to one shot at all, such as buying that ticket for the lottery is. And as FM "simulates" keepers growing in confidence during the course of matches, and forwards getting frustrated when missing, it might actually be a bit higher than this, as the chance of conversion usually thus shouldn't increase (nor stay the same with each subsequent penalty).

Edited by Svenc

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On 30/09/2018 at 17:46, waddlemagic said:

Berahino has nothing on Martin Palermo... 

 

I was reading each reply to see if someone else had mentioned this already :applause:

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Posted (edited)

Also with so many players playing the game it proved that the ME works.

If it were to never happen then it would be broken.

If the forum were flooded with people complaining then clearly it would be broken.

But with thousands playing entire seasons in the space of a week and one person posts, it kind of proves it's a freak occurrence, as it is in real life.

I sympathise, it's really bad that it happened to you, but it has to happen to someone eventually.  Try to feel lucky you witnessed something few players ever will :lol:

Edited by borivoje213

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4 hours ago, Svenc said:

Thank for correcting my "roughly 4%". Must have hacked a wrong number into the Windows Calculator. :D In other words thus, in roughly 1-2 matches out of 100 where 3 penalties occur, you would expect it to happen. Given how many matches are simulated across FM's player base over the year, this should actually occur with some sensible frequency, in particular if you take all the AI vs AI matches into account as well. Now 4 or 5 missed penalties may be a bit more tricky. It's still not quite a billion to one shot at all, such as buying that ticket for the lottery is. And as FM "simulates" keepers growing in confidence during the course of matches, and forwards getting frustrated when missing, it might actually be a bit higher than this, as the chance of conversion usually thus shouldn't increase (nor stay the same with each subsequent penalty).

Hah, no worries. May well have been hitting .35 rather than .25 as that comes out to just above 4% :) And yeah exactly, it's actually somewhat surprising there aren't more obvious cases of it happening in real life.

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Posted (edited)

I remember a cup match of my youth team, guess it was FM13, that ended 20-19 after penalty shootout.

Sadly the screenshot got lost and i can't remember how many players missed to score on the way.

Was it just the last one? Were it several?

(And yes. it was shown as 20-19, not "e2-2" like it is shown today)

Edited by meebee

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I had a penalty shootout in one of the early beta versions that finished 29-28 and there were only 3 misses!.  Luckily that was fixed for the full release.

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Spurs08 said:

Hah, no worries. May well have been hitting .35 rather than .25 as that comes out to just above 4% :) And yeah exactly, it's actually somewhat surprising there aren't more obvious cases of it happening in real life.

Naturally, the question is -- how many matches with three (or more) penalties are there (excluding shoot-outs, naturally). :D As of FM, I personally have two rules:

 

1) If there is a probability of something happening, however slight, it may happen. Real football isn't  Maths. A computer code is.
2) If something has happened to you in-game, there is a 99.99999999% likelyhood that you will find people who had just the same thing occuring. Multiple ones. Why is that? The real football world/universe only exists once. Not only is FM played by hundreds of thousands of players every year. They also tend to not only start one save, but multiple ones (essentially, multiple football universes for each of those thousands of players).

Which is also why the "injury bug threads" need to be approached with cautious every year by SI. There is the same bias at work here too: If something causes player frustrations, it is more likely to be reported. Thus, the many cases where the injuries are significantly lower than IRL are never reported. And I mean, never (and they occur far more frequently, as the injuries in FM are tweaked to be below football numbers). That's not to say that penalties are fine.... However, this approach won't reveal much except that aforementioned bias at play. :D Additionally, people don't take randomness that well overall, in particular in a gaming environment.

Edited by Svenc

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14 hours ago, autohoratio said:

Spurs08 said above, but the probability would be ~1.56%, not 4%. 

There is exactly the same chance that a MC with support duty to score a goal in three consecutive matches. I sow this yesterday. My MC scored a goal in all three matches he played. It' very clear : match engine is broken. :cool:

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On 30/09/2018 at 21:46, waddlemagic said:

Berahino has nothing on Martin Palermo... 

 

Beat me to it.

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3 hours ago, Svenc said:

Naturally, the question is -- how many matches with three (or more) penalties are there (excluding shoot-outs, naturally). :D As of FM, I personally have two rules:

 

1) If there is a probability of something happening, however slight, it may happen. Real football isn't  Maths. A computer code is.
2) If something has happened to you in-game, there is a 99.99999999% likelyhood that you will find people who had just the same thing occuring. Multiple ones. Why is that? The real football world/universe only exists once. Not only is FM played by hundreds of thousands of players every year. They also tend to not only start one save, but multiple ones (essentially, multiple football universes for each of those thousands of players).

Which is also why the "injury bug threads" need to be approached with cautious every year by SI. There is the same bias at work here too: If something causes player frustrations, it is more likely to be reported. Thus, the many cases where the injuries are significantly lower than IRL are never reported. And I mean, never (and they occur far more frequently, as the injuries in FM are tweaked to be below football numbers). That's not to say that penalties are fine.... However, this approach won't reveal much except that aforementioned bias at play. :D Additionally, people don't take randomness that well overall, in particular in a gaming environment.

Absolutely. And it's definitely not just gaming. Most people generally don't understand or like randomness or probability. I remember a story about how on early versions of iPods, the random play function did exactly that. And Apple got TONS of complaints from people saying it "wasn't really random" because they'd get the same song a few times without hearing another one in their playlist even once, etc. The problem was that it was very random, but what people actually wanted when they said "random" was more akin to a shuffle. Similarly in FM, people would generally agree that penalties should be realistically random, with about one in four missed. But they'd react better if most of the time this meant you'd miss one penalty in every three to five you took. When it comes out with missing three in a row, or indeed scoring fifteen in a row in e.g. a shootout, it's suddenly deemed broken when that's exactly what you'd expect to happen on occassion.

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Spurs08 said:

When it comes out with missing three in a row, or indeed scoring fifteen in a row in e.g. a shootout, it's suddenly deemed broken when that's exactly what you'd expect to happen on occassion.

Or in real football it's perceived as "form", when it may be but randomness. On the topic of penalties: Two seasons ago Leverkusen's penalty takers (same as the season before) "suddenly" missed almost everything. If you don't understand the role of randomness, this could lead to overreactions (and bad in-game decisions too) -- like selling all the players and disrupting the team, etc. :D Of course it's hard to pinpoint exactly if something is completely randomness, but randomness accounts for much what's happening in football (or sports) in general. It could be argued, to an extent, that management is about reducing its influence. Betting outlets bank on this too by publishing the most recent WDL records of teams. In a sports eventually settling the "winners" and "losers" in key seconds of effectively 60 minutes, such records can't be all that telling. Even though people "accept" that teams may win some "lucky", why shouldn't they do such such twice, or thrice or more? Interesting story about Apple, too!

Edited by Svenc

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On 02/10/2018 at 09:47, Svenc said:

Which is also why the "injury bug threads" need to be approached with cautious every year by SI. There is the same bias at work here too: If something causes player frustrations, it is more likely to be reported. Thus, the many cases where the injuries are significantly lower than IRL are never reported. And I mean, never (and they occur far more frequently, as the injuries in FM are tweaked to be below football numbers).

I know this for a fact. In either FM16 or FM17 I opened a post where I stated I had too few injuries, I think it had 2 replies. One from SI that registered it for the coders to check and a single one from another user who had noticed the same. In that game I think I had 1 major injury and 3 smaller ones in a season...

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Penalties have been one of the biggest issues for me in FM18, too bad I'm awful at collecting the stats but based on 1300 hours played I am convinced that for me and the teams I meet the conversion rate has been far below 50%. Current season I'm playing and we have had 5 penalties against us, 1 has been a goal. We have had 4 penalties for us, 0 goals.

But most seem to have no issues with penalties so me and OP have to accept we just got bad luck! :)

Anyway, my points is, that despite this extreme annoyance (I hate getting penalties now as it's rarely a goal and a miss take a striker down from 6,7 to 6,2 in a heartbeat) I don't think the ME is broken because of it. 

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2 hours ago, Karnack said:

Penalties have been one of the biggest issues for me in FM18, too bad I'm awful at collecting the stats

If you want to check it, it's not rocket science. The game collects htem themselves, but it's a bit "hidden". You can manually insert columns into each squad screen (including all AI teams) for penalties / converted. :)

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On 02/10/2018 at 19:11, mightypvfc said:

Good old Jonathan Walters once scored two own goals and missed a penalty in the same match. Can anyone top this?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/20919045

Oh dear......

I did come close once in FM16, my defender scored a goal. Then he scored an own goal in the 90th minute. I ended up losing in injury time when an opponent hit the cross bar, bounced off my goalkeeper, who was flailing about on the ground, an into the goal, gifting my opponent the game. :lol:

 

 

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On 05/10/2018 at 11:45, Svenc said:

If you want to check it, it's not rocket science. The game collects htem themselves, but it's a bit "hidden". You can manually insert columns into each squad screen (including all AI teams) for penalties / converted. :)

Yeah, I've actually done that once! My problem is that I play 100+ during the course of a FM-release, so keeping stats between saves is my big issue

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