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Weston

Are Newgens Too Good?

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I realize this can be a controversial topic, but with the new game coming soon it's got me wondering how the newgens will be this time around.

I feel as if finding talented young newgens is arguably too easy. No matter the edition of FM in a few years my entire team is made of teens and low-20s with amazing stats. I mean, I search and scout extensively for them, but is it not pretty obvious that newgens are, on average, much better than the real-life youth players included, thus providing more opportunities for success? Is it just kind of an unspoken thing that FM saturates this aspect of the game a bit because they know finding wonderkids is one of the big selling points of the series?

A Vinicius Junior, for example, is a big deal in real life. But in FM there could be several of them cropping up in a year, so much so that some are completely ignored despite playing many more high profile matches. This, I think, is because there are just so many of them. In my last save I had a 21 year old striker with amazing stats and yet, before he even reached his potential, I already found a 19 year old who was just as good if not better. Again, I put A LOT of effort into finding these guys, but perhaps I'm still spoiled for choice.

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I think it actually reflects real life rather well. Think about how many times player X is labelled the 'next Messi' or player y is the 'next Ronaldo'. How many of those actually realise that potential and don't end up languishing at a mid-table team by the time they are 22.

In the same way, the game throws up many potential world beaters, but unless they've got the right personality or they get the right development they won't end up like that.

If Vinicius Junior doesn't develop the way RM want him to, then within a few years he'll be sitting in the B-Team and eventually passed off to an Everton or Southampton. The same can be said of Martin Odegaard. When he signed for Real at the age of 16/17, he was exclaimed as being the next best thing but no-one's really heard of him since. Though I did see something the other day saying that they were looking to loan him to a Championship club to further his development.

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31 minutes ago, Neotropolis said:

I think it actually reflects real life rather well. Think about how many times player X is labelled the 'next Messi' or player y is the 'next Ronaldo'. How many of those actually realise that potential and don't end up languishing at a mid-table team by the time they are 22.

In the same way, the game throws up many potential world beaters, but unless they've got the right personality or they get the right development they won't end up like that.

If Vinicius Junior doesn't develop the way RM want him to, then within a few years he'll be sitting in the B-Team and eventually passed off to an Everton or Southampton. The same can be said of Martin Odegaard. When he signed for Real at the age of 16/17, he was exclaimed as being the next best thing but no-one's really heard of him since. Though I did see something the other day saying that they were looking to loan him to a Championship club to further his development.

I'm not talking about potential ability, I'm talking about current ability. By 2023 my team is full of 19-22 year olds with 18s for finishing and pace. They're already better than the real-life players top clubs started the game with!

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I don’t think newgen’s are too good, for me the problem is that it’s too easy to identify attribute & personality flaws that would normally see a young player’s development stall or sidetrack & for human managers to use in game tools to rectify those flaws too easily.

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26 minutes ago, Weston said:

I'm not talking about potential ability, I'm talking about current ability. By 2023 my team is full of 19-22 year olds with 18s for finishing and pace. They're already better than the real-life players top clubs started the game with!

But is that only the case because you developed them as such? Also, I assume you're referring to wingers/IFs/Strikers as finishing isn't necessary for DMs or defenders

Edited by Neotropolis
Typed midfielders. Changed to defenders as that is what I meant.

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4 minutes ago, Barside said:

I don’t think newgen’s are too good, for me the problem is that it’s too easy to identify attribute & personality flaws that would normally see a young player’s development stall or sidetrack & for human managers to use in game tools to rectify those flaws too easily.

 

3 minutes ago, Neotropolis said:

But is that only the case because you developed them as such? Also, I assume you're referring to wingers/IFs/Strikers as finishing isn't necessary for DMs or midfielders.

I'm not talking about development. I'm talking about about finding like 3-5 teen and low-20 players that are ALREADY good enough to slot into my title-defending side with 15-18 ratings in key attributes for their positions. Maybe they need a year or two more predominately subbed in first but they're practically already the full article.

Again, I spend a LOT of time and effort scouting for these lads, so maybe there aren't too many wonderkids and it just seems that way looking at my starting 11 and seeing so many young players. I just am curious what other peoples' experiences are, though I realize from the way they're overhyped it's easy to get the impression the game is saturated with them.

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Booted up my old save to provide some examples. Don't get me wrong, I love having such a talented young first team that I put so much work into building. It just gives me a nagging feeling that wonderkids are inflated to hype the game, but maybe I'm just looking for something to complain about to temper my success...

Ocampo, for example, scored like 40 goals in his debut season at 21, but then I've already found a 19 year old who looks even better and is set to push him out of the starting role. How are there so many popping up ready to be signed?

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Edited by Weston

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So these are players that were partially developed elsewhere and you've recently brought them in? I can see why you think there are too many if you've gone out of your way to find them and bring them into your team. The game is evenly distributing them, but your extensive scouting finds them all and brings them too you. 

I don't think the game is creating too many, more that you are searching for them all and thus feel there is too many as your squad is filled with them.

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Load the game up season one, load the editor and find out how many high rated players are in the game above 160 PA and CA,  then load it up 5-10 years later and see if this no has changed,  perhaps you need some house rules as not to go out of your way to find these players if it bothers you?

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2 minutes ago, wayne'o said:

Load the game up season one, load the editor and find out how many high rated players are in the game above 160 PA and CA,  then load it up 5-10 years later and see if this no has changed,  perhaps you need some house rules as not to go out of your way to find these players if it bothers you?

Is there a way to see all the players in the game? If you click "Players" it only shows you the ones you're able to see with your network, no?

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3 minutes ago, Weston said:

Is there a way to see all the players in the game? If you click "Players" it only shows you the ones you're able to see with your network, no?

There’s used to be a programme called fm-scout for download.  I used that for experiments..

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2 hours ago, Weston said:

I realize this can be a controversial topic, but with the new game coming soon it's got me wondering how the newgens will be this time around.

I feel as if finding talented young newgens is arguably too easy. No matter the edition of FM in a few years my entire team is made of teens and low-20s with amazing stats. I mean, I search and scout extensively for them, but is it not pretty obvious that newgens are, on average, much better than the real-life youth players included, thus providing more opportunities for success? Is it just kind of an unspoken thing that FM saturates this aspect of the game a bit because they know finding wonderkids is one of the big selling points of the series?

A Vinicius Junior, for example, is a big deal in real life. But in FM there could be several of them cropping up in a year, so much so that some are completely ignored despite playing many more high profile matches. This, I think, is because there are just so many of them. In my last save I had a 21 year old striker with amazing stats and yet, before he even reached his potential, I already found a 19 year old who was just as good if not better. Again, I put A LOT of effort into finding these guys, but perhaps I'm still spoiled for choice.

Not necessarily, the vast majority of regens do not have 5-star potential. Just recently on my save, I had a youth intake day, and none of these regens had 5-star potential. The "best" youth player had 4-star potential, and the club I was playing with had 4 and a half star youth facilities, Junior Coaching, and Youth Recruitment. Besides in real-life there are thousands of wonderkids, so the game is simply reflecting this fact.

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6 minutes ago, Thescouser20 said:

Not necessarily, the vast majority of regens do not have 5-star potential. Just recently on my save, I had a youth intake day, and none of these regens had 5-star potential. The "best" youth player had 4-star potential, and the club I was playing with had 4 and a half star youth facilities, Junior Coaching, and Youth Recruitment. Besides in real-life there are thousands of wonderkids, so the game is simply reflecting this fact.

I am not talking about the potential ability of my own youth intake, I'm talking about my ability to scout and sign wonderkids with already world class current abilities at age 19.

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5 minutes ago, Thescouser20 said:

Not necessarily, the vast majority of regens do not have 5-star potential. Just recently on my save, I had a youth intake day, and none of these regens had 5-star potential. The "best" youth player had 4-star potential, and the club I was playing with had 4 and a half star youth facilities, Junior Coaching, and Youth Recruitment. Besides in real-life there are thousands of wonderkids, so the game is simply reflecting this fact.

'Star Rating' and 'Potential Ability' aren't linked. They're mutually exclusive.

Potential ability is their absolute value between 0-200.

Star Rating varies from team to team. What is a 1 Star player for say Man Utd could be a 5 Star player for Rotherham. The Star Rating is given by your assistant manager relative to the rest of the squad. If your squad is full of World Class players, then you won't get players rated higher than that as you can't improve on World Class. Depending on what your squad is, your 4 Star potential could be World-Class potential.

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It probably means that you have a very good scouting team or I suspect that you would have to pay a lot of money for world-class regens at age 19 because I highly doubt that any big club would dare turn down a player who is already world-class at a young age. Which clubs did you acquire these players from?

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1 minute ago, Weston said:

I'm talking about my ability to scout and sign wonderkids with already world class current abilities at age 19.

With the right methods, this is simple. You are scouring the world for the best people possible. You are selecting, what the top 15 newgens out of potentially 1000's that exist. 

Maybe it's less of a case that they're too many, maybe more of a case that you're exceptionally good at finding them?

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Just now, Neotropolis said:

With the right methods, this is simple. You are scouring the world for the best people possible. You are selecting, what the top 15 newgens out of potentially 1000's that exist. 

Maybe it's less of a case that they're too many, maybe more of a case that you're exceptionally good at finding them?

That's what I'm trying to figure out haha, I'm not saying I have the right answer. FM's big selling point is "buy this game so you can find a wonderkid and sign him and win!" and there are so many articles written about the best ones, so I wonder if they inflate newgens a bit to ride this hype. But, like I said, I also spend a lot of time searching for them and have gotten pretty good at it, so it's hard to tell from my narrow perspective and I'm curious to hear what other people think.

It just seems that the average age of the best teams decreases a considerable amount as the game progresses and newgens phase out real players, but I have an incredibly small sample size at my personal disposal, I guess. I also have a skewed perspective because I start out in the lower leagues and climb up to the top as this process evolves.

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2 minutes ago, Neotropolis said:

'Star Rating' and 'Potential Ability' aren't linked. They're mutually exclusive.

Potential ability is their absolute value between 0-200.

Star Rating varies from team to team. What is a 1 Star player for say Man Utd could be a 5 Star player for Rotherham. The Star Rating is given by your assistant manager relative to the rest of the squad. If your squad is full of World Class players, then you won't get players rated higher than that as you can't improve on World Class. Depending on what your squad is, your 4 Star potential could be World-Class potential.

That may be down to what level of staff wants to be involved with these clubs. For example, have you ever been able to sign a 5-star staff member with Crewe Alexandra in League 2? Probably Not, the club I'm playing with has 4 and a half star reputation, therefore, I can sign staff members that have more ability. My head of youth development is 4 and a half stars and he has 19 judging ability and 20 judging potential, and the youth player in question according to my head of youth development had 4 star potential. If this youth player was at FC United of Manchester, the club's staff is not as capable as the staff I have, so of course he'll have 5-star potential.

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2 minutes ago, Weston said:

That's what I'm trying to figure out haha, I'm not saying I have the right answer. FM's big selling point is "buy this game so you can find a wonderkid and sign him and win!" and there are so many articles written about the best ones, so I wonder if they inflate newgens a bit to ride this hype. But, like I said, I also spend a lot of time searching for them and have gotten pretty good at it, so it's hard to tell from my narrow perspective and I'm curious to hear what other people think.

It just seems that the average age of the best teams decreases a considerable amount as the game progresses and newgens phase out real players, but I have an incredibly small sample size at my personal disposal, I guess. I also have a skewed perspective because I start out in the lower leagues and climb up to the top as this process evolves.

Possibly. The only thing I would suggest is for you to maybe start a new save and not hunt out these newgens and see if you still feel the same

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3 minutes ago, Weston said:

That's what I'm trying to figure out haha, I'm not saying I have the right answer. FM's big selling point is "buy this game so you can find a wonderkid and sign him and win!" and there are so many articles written about the best ones, so I wonder if they inflate newgens a bit to ride this hype. But, like I said, I also spend a lot of time searching for them and have gotten pretty good at it, so it's hard to tell from my narrow perspective and I'm curious to hear what other people think.

It just seems that the average age of the best teams decreases a considerable amount as the game progresses and newgens phase out real players, but I have an incredibly small sample size at my personal disposal, I guess. I also have a skewed perspective because I start out in the lower leagues and climb up to the top as this process evolves.

To be honest, you just may be very good at the game and are more able to find quality regens than me, since regens with 5-star potential don't just grow on trees.

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43 minutes ago, Weston said:

Is there a way to see all the players in the game? If you click "Players" it only shows you the ones you're able to see with your network, no?

How much money did you pay for these 5-star regens?

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1 minute ago, Thescouser20 said:

That may be down to what level of staff wants to be involved with these clubs. For example, have you ever been able to sign a 5-star staff member with Crewe Alexandra in League 2? Probably Not, the club I'm playing with has 4 and a half star reputation, therefore, I can sign staff members that have more ability. My head of youth development is 4 and a half stars and he has 19 judging ability and 20 judging potential, and the youth player in question according to my head of youth development had 4 star potential. If this youth player was at FC United of Manchester, the club's staff is not as capable as the staff I have, so of course he'll have 5-star potential.

I think you missed my point. 

Lets take Player X. He has a Current Ability of 100 and Potential Ability of 150 in say the 2018/19 season. Regardless of what club he is at or what staff that club is at, he will always have those values at the beginning of this season. Now at Liverpool the staff say he has 2 Star ability and 3 and a half Star potential. However he goes on loan to say Scunthorpe United in League One. Now the staff there rate him as 4 Star ability and 5 Star Potential as he is better than what they've got despite the CA & PA not changing. 

There is a slight difference in staff as the better their JPA & JPP the more likely they are to be spot on. But the star rating is subjective and varies depending on the team around them.

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1 minute ago, Neotropolis said:

I think you missed my point. 

Lets take Player X. He has a Current Ability of 100 and Potential Ability of 150 in say the 2018/19 season. Regardless of what club he is at or what staff that club is at, he will always have those values at the beginning of this season. Now at Liverpool the staff say he has 2 Star ability and 3 and a half Star potential. However he goes on loan to say Scunthorpe United in League One. Now the staff there rate him as 4 Star ability and 5 Star Potential as he is better than what they've got despite the CA & PA not changing. 

There is a slight difference in staff as the better their JPA & JPP the more likely they are to be spot on. But the star rating is subjective and varies depending on the team around them.

That is my argument, less-capable staff members like at Scunthorpe United probably aren't more able to judge potential and ability than Liverpool's staff, so they will misjudge him to have better potential.

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15 minutes ago, Thescouser20 said:

That is my argument, less-capable staff members like at Scunthorpe United probably aren't more able to judge potential and ability than Liverpool's staff, so they will misjudge him to have better potential.

Or they could misjudge them to have less potential. While in LLM I've got rid of players that my staff said were garbage only for them to destroy teams in the same leagues. Equally, I've kept hold of players who I was told were good for them never be good enough to lace ones boots.

My point wasn't about the capability of staff members. But to take your case in point, you could take that staff member from Liverpool to Scunthorpe and he would still give Player X a higher star rating than he would at Liverpool because Player X is a star at Scunthorpe but only mediocre at Liverpool.

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48 minutes ago, Thescouser20 said:

It probably means that you have a very good scouting team or I suspect that you would have to pay a lot of money for world-class regens at age 19 because I highly doubt that any big club would dare turn down a player who is already world-class at a young age. Which clubs did you acquire these players from?

 

32 minutes ago, Thescouser20 said:

 

How much money did you pay for these 5-star regens?

I put a lot of time into scouting, but it's not just having good scouts, I manually go and sort through lists of players myself too.

 

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1 minute ago, Weston said:

I put a lot of time into scouting, but it's not just having good scouts, I manually go and sort through lists of players myself too.

That must take ages for you to do all that. That takes all the fun out of it for me, but if you enjoy that then go you. As long as you're enjoying the game, what does it matter?

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I suspected this, it appears the clubs you have acquired these players do not have as high a reputation as Barcelona, so they won't be as demanding as high a fee in negotiations as Barcelona or Real Madrid.

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In real life a player having potential at a young age is just that potential!?  50% May go on to forfill this potential and the other 50% don’t.  It could come down to personality traits etc..

In FM when a regen is given a 4 star rating at a world class club you know his potential is any thing upto 200?

irl its a lot harder to say a player with potential could reach the level of 200 = Messi standard..   

I don’t see clubs finding players rated 200 potential irl from all over the world unless they have very high reputations and are known world wide.  Do you use attribute masking in your game?

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9 minutes ago, Weston said:

 

I put a lot of time into scouting, but it's not just having good scouts, I manually go and sort through lists of players myself too.

 

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I suspected this, the players that you are signing are attached to clubs that do not have as high a reputation as your club, therefore they will not ask for a massive fee, unlike a big club, if these players were from Bayern Munich, Barcelona, etc., you would most certainly have to pay more for those type of players.

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7 minutes ago, Neotropolis said:

That must take ages for you to do all that. That takes all the fun out of it for me, but if you enjoy that then go you. As long as you're enjoying the game, what does it matter?

I mean, I imagine managers in real life also do research for potential targets. I do the thing where you have a scout search all of the youth intakes for other clubs in your country, but this usually only turns up diamonds in the rough I put in my primavera. Its relatively easy to send scouts to likely targets like Brazil, Argentina, or Belgium to search for youth which is how I found these guys. Felipe came up because I specifically send multiple scouts to look for South Americans with EU dual nationalities. The trick I've found is you want nations that are in the sweet spot of having potential talent like Netherlands or Serbia, but not big enough to where it will be nearly impossible to pry them away, like Germany or Spain.

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Those players are TOO good, and the most worrying part is, IMO, that as you can see in their history, they were VERY GOOD already at 16-17...

Ok, some of them debuted very young in not-so-strong leagues, but they were apparently good enough to be first-squad regulars basically from their first year in the game. And this happens WAY TOO OFTEN in FM, even in professional leagues and in nations with high(ish) standards.

The OP may have spent a lot of time, effort and in-game money to hoard a couple of top prospects, which is a "problem" SI can't really solve, because human players have an inherent advantage over AI managers.
However the amount of ready-made youngsters who not just are competent starters at 16 but are also developing at an incremental rate, are way too many and way too common.

IRL, think of Ødegaard: he was touted as a sure-fire top player at 15, and he has since stalled brutally. In FM, he'd become a top star for Real within 1-2 seasons without requiring much effort because all the game needs to create a new Messi is enough PA and a high enough CA.

Edited by RBKalle

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1 minute ago, wayne'o said:

I don’t see clubs finding players rated 200 potential irl from all over the world unless they have very high reputations and are known world wide.  Do you use attribute masking in your game?

I do use attribute masking yes. I actually was pretty surprised by how low the PA ratings were for the two strikers when I retired the save and looked under the hood, but perhaps I inflate the value of them in my own head because I'm too close. Felipe is poised to be absolutely brilliant, though. For reference, Dybala has a PA of 185 and Higuain has 180.

Name / CA / PA

Aguirre / 160 / 169

Ocampo / 161 / 161

Buna / 169 / 178

Felipe / 161 / 190

Vermeersch / 159 / 170

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10 minutes ago, RBKalle said:

Those players are TOO good, and the most worrying part is, IMO, that as you can see in their history, they were VERY GOOD already at 16-17...

Ok, some of them debuted very young in not-so-strong leagues, but they were apparently good enough to be first-squad regulars basically from their first year in the game. And this happens WAY TOO OFTEN in FM, even in professional leagues and in nations with high(ish) standards.

The OP may have spent a lot of time, effort and in-game money to hoard a couple of top prospects, which is a "problem" SI can't really solve, because human players have an inherent advantage over AI managers.
However the amount of ready-made youngsters who not just are competent starters at 16 but are also developing at an incremental rate, are way too many and way too common.

IRL, think of Ødegaard: he was touted as a sure-fire top player at 15, and he has since stalled brutally. In FM, he'd become a top star for Real within 1-2 seasons without requiring much effort because all the game needs to create a new Messi is enough PA and a high enough CA.

That's what I'm saying, I think the newgens may be too good TOO SOON.

I don't know if me looking so much is a problem in itself considering it's perfectly fine for me to have a focus on young talent, many of these players were already on the radar of other top clubs when I discovered them, and there are also many other even better newgens that other top clubs picked up before I ever discovered them.

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3 minutes ago, Weston said:

I do use attribute masking yes. I actually was pretty surprised by how low the PA ratings were for the two strikers when I retired the save and looked under the hood, but perhaps I inflate the value of them in my own head because I'm too close. Felipe is poised to be absolutely brilliant, though. For reference, Dybala has a PA of 185 and Higuain has 180.

Name / CA / PA

Aguirre / 160 / 169

Ocampo / 161 / 161

Buna / 169 / 178

Felipe / 161 / 190

Vermeersch / 159 / 170

So using attributes masking should make it harder to find these players?   I guess if your prepared to put the time in you should have reward which is a good player.

 

last season TAA broke threw at Liverpool in his first season at 18/19 what’s his Ca and Pa?   I think you’ll find if you holiday the game for 10-15 years the number of high rated players will balance out to what the game start with.  

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10 minutes ago, Weston said:

That's what I'm saying, I think the newgens may be too good TOO SOON.

 

26 minutes ago, RBKalle said:

However the amount of ready-made youngsters who not just are competent starters at 16 but are also developing at an incremental rate, are way too many and way too common.

iirc, an exceptional amount of development for a player in single season is around 30 CA.  More typically we should see less than that.  I also seem to remember that development rates were tweaked an FM or two ago (although edge of memory there so could be wrong).  If you both have examples, especially as you seem to see "too many" and it's "way too common" the best thing you can do is open a Bugs thread and provide all of these examples for SI to take a look at :thup:.

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55 minutes ago, herne79 said:

 

iirc, an exceptional amount of development for a player in single season is around 30 CA.  More typically we should see less than that.  I also seem to remember that development rates were tweaked an FM or two ago (although edge of memory there so could be wrong).  If you both have examples, especially as you seem to see "too many" and it's "way too common" the best thing you can do is open a Bugs thread and provide all of these examples for SI to take a look at :thup:.

I don't think it's a bug that there are lots of very talented readymade newgens, my theory is that FM might inflate this aspect of the game for the sake of excitement and popularity. I'm definitely good at finding them, but perhaps it's a bit of both. It's not like these players would've wasted away in obscurity without reaching full potential had I not signed them, though.

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@Weston observation wise... I agree with everything you say. Im in season 13 of a save and want to be loyal to my players but its hard when every season i can see an 18yr old striker with way better attributes than my 25yr old 'elite' who was already one of the super powered newgen when i bought him.

Many of them just seem to hit their PA very quickly?

I find with wingers, strikers and fullbacks its more prevalent... Could be down to how the a.i set their training? 

I never use any editor tools so dont have the inclination to check ca/pa etc

Best advice was above tho, do a total  check of your sample group (e.g 16-25 yr old in top european leagues) in season one with direct comparison in season 15 or so

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19 minutes ago, Weston said:

I don't think it's a bug that there are lots of very talented readymade newgens

I'm not saying it's a bug :).  All I'm saying is that SI keep a check on the database profile through lots of soak tests and if you're seeing something that seems odd it could be worth while uploading the data for SI to take a look at.  RBKalle is saying "it's way too many and way too common" for example.  And the best place to upload that data is the Bugs forum.

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24 minuti fa, herne79 ha scritto:

I'm not saying it's a bug :).  All I'm saying is that SI keep a check on the database profile through lots of soak tests and if you're seeing something that seems odd it could be worth while uploading the data for SI to take a look at.  RBKalle is saying "it's way too many and way too common" for example.  And the best place to upload that data is the Bugs forum.

 

You know all too well it'll still be "anecdotal evidence" or something like "your findings are on par with the % of talented youngsters in the original db".

Besides, what's the ideal setup to run such a test anyway?

And in the end, as I've said countless times, not every objection MUST be a bug! The OP and I think there are many newgens who start "too ready" and develop too quickly regardless of the level they play at (a few seasons in Mexico/Colombia shouldn't be enough to turn a hot prospect into a Serie A top striker at age 19-21)

How many of them are there? How can I know that... I can only raise the question and provide a handful of screens and even some figures, but that'll still be a random peek into a random save.

Only SI know the % of top-end newgens and the way attributes are distributed when creating them...

Edited by RBKalle

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23 minutes ago, RBKalle said:

not every objection MUST be a bug

I know.  Nobody has said it is a bug or even intimated that it might be one.  My only message here is if you have information which has led you to the belief of "way too many and way too common" occurrences (your words) then let SI take a look at the data.  You may be onto something, I've no idea if you are or not.  I'm not even asking you to run tests as you have already drawn your conclusions from your current save(s).  So if you are willing to share what you already have, the best place to get SI to take a look at the data is to stick it in the Bugs forum.

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6 hours ago, wayne'o said:

Load the game up season one, load the editor and find out how many high rated players are in the game above 160 PA and CA,  then load it up 5-10 years later and see if this no has changed,  perhaps you need some house rules as not to go out of your way to find these players if it bothers you?

 

3 hours ago, westy8chimp said:

Best advice was above tho, do a total  check of your sample group (e.g 16-25 yr old in top european leagues) in season one with direct comparison in season 15 or so

 

2 hours ago, herne79 said:

I know.  Nobody has said it is a bug or even intimated that it might be one.  My only message here is if you have information which has led you to the belief of "way too many and way too common" occurrences (your words) then let SI take a look at the data.  You may be onto something, I've no idea if you are or not.  I'm not even asking you to run tests as you have already drawn your conclusions from your current save(s).  So if you are willing to share what you already have, the best place to get SI to take a look at the data is to stick it in the Bugs forum.

Okay, using the editor I figured out how to search all players in the game ages 18-20 sorted by hidden attributes, and I compared two points, one at the current date of 6 June 2022 (so all newgens), and the start date of 3 July 2017 (so all real players). I'm using a pretty large database and can provide more details on that by request. Here is the spread:

CA - 2017 / 2022

200-191 - 0 / 0
190-181 - 0 / 0
180-171 - 0 / 0
170-161 - 1 / 3
160-151 - 2 / 12
150-141 - 14 / 28
140-131 - 49 / 81

PA - 2017 / 2022

200-191 - 0 / 1
190-181 - 2 / 15
180-171 - 5 / 60
170-161 - 53 / 55

Keeping in mind this is a small sample size of one (1) save game, it's pretty obvious FM is unrealistically inflating the abilities of generated players to make the game more exciting as it goes on and recognizable players die out, and every game I've ever played has felt this way. I mean, these are just staggering numbers! I'd be interested in seeing other people's results as well.

On top of this, it turns out I owned 5 of the top 6 highest CA players, which definitely bolsters the theory that I'm signing a disproportionate amount of wonderkids, but that's gotta be at least partially because of how many more there are to find! On the other hand, I only own 1 of the 16 players in the 181+ categories for PA, so I'm not doing anything too special when it comes to nurturing more uncovered/undeveloped talent.

Per your suggestion I will post these findings in the bug forum. I get that FM has to take certain liberties with realism in the interest of selling games, but this seems a bit much to me. It's simply inescapably silly that compared to real players there are FIVE TIMES more newgens with a CA above 150 and ELEVEN TIMES more with a PA above 170. I want to find wonderkids, but it kind of cheapens the experience to know how artificially saturated the game becomes with them...

Edited by Weston

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I think There are more average newgens as there are wonderkids.   IRL unless a player from 16+ makes drastic improvements there arnt going to be loads of random humans turn up as a wonderkid over night,  In the game newgens get created at a certain point some of which are very good,  maybe the fact newgens appear so early in the game makes it appear like there’s to many?  Imagine how depleted the game would feel in 5-10 years if no newgens were introduced?

building a team of wonderkid newgens 3 years after the game start is obviously unrealistic but if by doing this your game becomes easy you may need to play your game differently if it bothers you?   Does this happen on every save you start?

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8 hours ago, wayne'o said:

I think There are more average newgens as there are wonderkids.   IRL unless a player from 16+ makes drastic improvements there arnt going to be loads of random humans turn up as a wonderkid over night,  In the game newgens get created at a certain point some of which are very good,  maybe the fact newgens appear so early in the game makes it appear like there’s to many?  Imagine how depleted the game would feel in 5-10 years if no newgens were introduced?

building a team of wonderkid newgens 3 years after the game start is obviously unrealistic but if by doing this your game becomes easy you may need to play your game differently if it bothers you?   Does this happen on every save you start?

Yes, this is how FM has always been, though I've gotten better at finding them in recent years only. I mean, if I ignore them they'll just go to Real Madrid or Barcelona.

People often ask for difficulty settings in the game, to which the response is "this is a simulation, so that would be silly," but perhaps it would be very simple to add a feature at the start of a new save that allows you to set the newgen wonderkid population at "scarce/below average," "realistic/average," or "saturated/above average."

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12 hours ago, Weston said:

 

 

Okay, using the editor I figured out how to search all players in the game ages 18-20 sorted by hidden attributes, and I compared two points, one at the current date of 6 June 2022 (so all newgens), and the start date of 3 July 2017 (so all real players). I'm using a pretty large database and can provide more details on that by request. Here is the spread:

CA - 2017 / 2022

200-191 - 0 / 0
190-181 - 0 / 0
180-171 - 0 / 0
170-161 - 1 / 3
160-151 - 2 / 12
150-141 - 14 / 28
140-131 - 49 / 81

PA - 2017 / 2022

200-191 - 0 / 1
190-181 - 2 / 15
180-171 - 5 / 60
170-161 - 53 / 55

Keeping in mind this is a small sample size of one (1) save game, it's pretty obvious FM is unrealistically inflating the abilities of generated players to make the game more exciting as it goes on and recognizable players die out, and every game I've ever played has felt this way. I mean, these are just staggering numbers! I'd be interested in seeing other people's results as well.

On top of this, it turns out I owned 5 of the top 6 highest CA players, which definitely bolsters the theory that I'm signing a disproportionate amount of wonderkids, but that's gotta be at least partially because of how many more there are to find! On the other hand, I only own 1 of the 16 players in the 181+ categories for PA, so I'm not doing anything too special when it comes to nurturing more uncovered/undeveloped talent.

Per your suggestion I will post these findings in the bug forum. I get that FM has to take certain liberties with realism in the interest of selling games, but this seems a bit much to me. It's simply inescapably silly that compared to real players there are FIVE TIMES more newgens with a CA above 150 and ELEVEN TIMES more with a PA above 170. I want to find wonderkids, but it kind of cheapens the experience to know how artificially saturated the game becomes with them...

Those number don’t look great & is a good starting point to consider a deeper analysis of what appears to be a potential issue with PA distribution & player development.

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11 minutes ago, Barside said:

Those number don’t look great & is a good starting point to consider a deeper analysis of what appears to be a potential issue with PA distribution & player development.

Do you think this is intentional or not? Would you also be willing to provide a similar data set to help add credence to the issue?

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Yep, this higher overall and especially higher at the high end PA distribution has been the case for years, and I assume quite deliberate. They're somewhat less likely to have the personality to reach that potential, but that's fix-able...

I think it's partly the researchers for the real game being encouraged to be conservative with capping potential to avoid too many Tonton Zola Moukoko's, and partly a strategic decision to inflate PAs to (i) make the search for the "next Messi" actually fun, because it won't turn out there's only one and he's already at Barcelona, and (ii) at the lower end make it easier for the attentive human manager to build a squad to compete for titles/promotions entirely from within which simply isn't possible IRL.

(Also, higher potentials help compensate for shonky attribute distribution, although that's definitely not a problem in the 160CA+ range, or for newgen strikers)

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22 hours ago, Weston said:

That's what I'm saying, I think the newgens may be too good TOO SOON.

I don't know if me looking so much is a problem in itself considering it's perfectly fine for me to have a focus on young talent, many of these players were already on the radar of other top clubs when I discovered them, and there are also many other even better newgens that other top clubs picked up before I ever discovered them.

Were any of these players from active leagues? The game will tend to generate higher CA players in non-active leagues as they get generated at 18 rather than 16 due to the lower detail in non-active leagues (which helps to develop the players and keep those teams competitive), and game will also on occasion generate high CA youngsters to reflect the players that break into the first teams at 16-18.

The issue is more that you have been able to snatch up the games best wonderkids and that the game doesn't really punish you for playing a load of kids, so the AI should really have fought with you to get these players (though most seem to be non-EU which would have put off the teams with FGN restrictions), whilst the game probably needs something to make it more of a gamble to field too many kids you've snatched from around the world (adaptability and language should possibly play a bigger part), also if you've played a few versions of the game it tends to become easier for human managers to separate out the players with potential that will make it from the ones that won't, though recent versions have tried to add a bit more variety to player development (so you get the Adu's who peak early and the Lingard's who are late developers).

The other thing to consider is confirmation bias - how many players did you scout to find these wonderkids, and how many other players have you signed over the years that haven't made it? For the most part when people post about regens on the forums they remember the star ones and forget all the ones that didn't make it. (Or conversely they complain that their youth intake isn't full of wonderkids).

Also it looks like some of these guys have been generated at the start of the game so they may have been generated as first teamers to fill in some blanks rather than as real regens, though you'd generally expect those players to be slightly older (20-25 at generation).

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Thank you for your detailed reply! Would you be willing to tally up the results in your own save to add to the sample size?

1 hour ago, michaeltmurrayuk said:

Were any of these players from active leagues? The game will tend to generate higher CA players in non-active leagues as they get generated at 18 rather than 16 due to the lower detail in non-active leagues (which helps to develop the players and keep those teams competitive), and game will also on occasion generate high CA youngsters to reflect the players that break into the first teams at 16-18.

None of them came from playable leagues but all of them came from viewable, fully-simulated leagues, with the exception of the Colombian player. Even if they came from inactive leagues this wouldn't explain the much higher amount of high-PA players.

1 hour ago, michaeltmurrayuk said:

The issue is more that you have been able to snatch up the games best wonderkids and that the game doesn't really punish you for playing a load of kids, so the AI should really have fought with you to get these players (though most seem to be non-EU which would have put off the teams with FGN restrictions), whilst the game probably needs something to make it more of a gamble to field too many kids you've snatched from around the world (adaptability and language should possibly play a bigger part), also if you've played a few versions of the game it tends to become easier for human managers to separate out the players with potential that will make it from the ones that won't, though recent versions have tried to add a bit more variety to player development (so you get the Adu's who peak early and the Lingard's who are late developers).

I disagree that the issue is that I've been able to sign players that the game creates - the game should create a realistic number of talented players and it should be up to the human manager's skill level to determine how many of them he manages to collect. I also don't think the problem here is that teams that start many young players need to be "punished," that's not even really relevant to this issue at all. Several of these players I signed by activating release clauses, and at least two I had to send on loan back to the parent clubs as I was unable to register them the season I signed them due to non-EU restrictions (Felipe, however, was a dual national with Italian citizenship). Perhaps the AI should get smarter when it comes to doing similar deals, but again, that is a separate issue. Adaptability and language also has nothing to do with the amount of talented newgens created. And when I'm signing teens with incredibly high Current Abilities they could be peaking early and never gain another attribute point again and they would still be fantastic players, it's just how prevalent they are that seems unrealistically skewed.

1 hour ago, michaeltmurrayuk said:

The other thing to consider is confirmation bias - how many players did you scout to find these wonderkids, and how many other players have you signed over the years that haven't made it? For the most part when people post about regens on the forums they remember the star ones and forget all the ones that didn't make it. (Or conversely they complain that their youth intake isn't full of wonderkids).

I scouted a LOT of players, but there are also many, many more wonderkids to be found, as my data shows. I didn't sign any other players who didn't "make it," these were really the only youngsters I signed for the first team in the 3+ seasons I spent at a top flight club (I started in the lower leagues and only got to the top flight a few years later once newgens were starting to blossom a bit). There are clearly a lot of other newgens that are not this talented, but unless the game starts creating a surplus of players in general the drastically higher rates at which the top quality ones start to appear seems to imply that the overall ability spread is disproportionately skewed upward.

1 hour ago, michaeltmurrayuk said:

Also it looks like some of these guys have been generated at the start of the game so they may have been generated as first teamers to fill in some blanks rather than as real regens, though you'd generally expect those players to be slightly older (20-25 at generation).

So is this a bug, then?

Edited by Weston

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@Weston These are some figures from various points of my save game, unfortunately I don't have a save game from the start, all save points are from July apart from the last one that is late august so they should be roughly similar snapshots, I've included numbers for all players as you need those values to provide context for the kid numbers.

The active leagues in my save are England (All leagues) and top divisions from Croatia, France, Italy, Spain, Germany, NIreland, Scotland and Wales, also in 2018 there was no active manager, 2020 I was in the National League and by 2025 in the Premier League, so that might have some affects as the level of detail changed as I moved through the leagues and there is a higher chance of me having an influence on these players in 25/26 rather than in 2020. It was also started with the original release database.

CA 2018     2020     2025     2026  
  18-20 ALL   18-20 ALL   18-20 ALL   18-20 ALL
200-191 0 2   0 0   0 0   0 0
190-181 0 6   0 11   0 6   0 6
180-171 0 18   0 14   1 16   0 14
170-161 0 56   0 68   1 68   2 70
160-151 6 166   3 152   6 182   7 182
150-141 9 472   10 449   24 379   19 359
140-131 29 927   41 900   47 781   53 730

 

PA 2018   2020   2025   2026
  18-20 ALL   18-20 ALL   18-20 ALL   18-20 ALL
200-191 0 6   1 7   4 8   3 8
190-181 1 24   6 26   12 37   11 39
180-171 6 100   20 105   24 121   24 122
170-161 39 286   48 284   30 285   29 285
160-151 86 730   100 737   109 741   121 883
150-141 197 1,418   190 1,357   152 1,280   166 1,279
140-131 411 2,627   374 2,558   363 2,592   360 2,593
                       
TOTAL 7,761 40,558   8,256 40,023   6,838 39,771   6,729 39,885

For reference CA/PA 130 is roughly a Decent Prem player, 140 is a Good Prem player, 150 is Leading and 170 is World Class. So my game has seen a slight decrease in World Class players over the years (and so far hasn't replaced Ronaldo or Messi), though there has been an increase in the players just below that level but then there has been a fairly large drop in the lower Prem quality players. For younger players I've had one World Class one and two nearly ones, with the biggest increase being at the lower end of the Prem as those numbers double in these age bracket as the overall players drop (though that 2020 figure likely includes the bulk of the real world wonderkids who were 16/17 at the game start - just checked and 27 of the 41 are real players and 11 of the players in the higher bracket are as well).

On the PA table the overall figures are more important (at a basic level the game will produce high PA youngsters when high PA players retire to keep the database balanced so you'll have yearly variations as different players retire and the game balances the database) though my game has seen a slight shift in players from the 150 bracket into the higher ones, but as not all players will reach their potential I wouldn't say this is a problem.

A better comparison is the percentages, the below table shows the percentage of players in that CA bracket that are 18-20

CA 2018     2020     2025     2026
  18-20     18-20     18-20     18-20
200-191 0.00%     0.00%     0.00%     0.00%
190-181 0.00%     0.00%     0.00%     0.00%
180-171 0.00%     0.00%     6.25%     0.00%
170-161 0.00%     0.00%     1.47%     2.86%
160-151 3.61%     1.97%     3.30%     3.85%
150-141 1.91%     2.23%     6.33%     5.29%
140-131 3.13%     4.56%     6.02%     7.26%

(This shows that in 2018 3.61% of the players who had a CA 151-160 were aged 18-20). So whilst the CA levels of 18-20 year olds has increased the overall numbers are still fairly low so the vast majority of Prem rated players are older than 20 - in my game at the moment there are 80 Prem rated kids from a total of ~1,400 which is ~6% and whilst that figure has doubled from the start it's still a small figure overall.

These are some figures from new games created using the same leagues as above and as close as I could get to the actual options I initially selected, first set is from the default database second is from the updated 18.3 database and even using the same settings you get different starting values due to the updates from the new database which doubles the 151 bracket and shifts some of the players from the lower brackets around;

CA 2017   CA 2017 18.3
  18-20 ALL       18-20 ALL  
200-191 0 2 0.00%   200-191 0 2 0.00%
190-181 0 3 0.00%   190-181 0 4 0.00%
180-171 0 20 0.00%   180-171 0 21 0.00%
170-161 1 58 1.72%   170-161 1 54 1.85%
160-151 2 144 1.39%   160-151 4 139 2.88%
150-141 14 475 2.95%   150-141 20 451 4.43%
140-131 50 1129 4.43%   140-131 46 1125 4.09%
TOTAL 8509 40689       8469 40590  

 

Other things to consider are that whilst the game tries to balance out the database as the game goes on the starting database might not actually be balanced - I expect if you take same values from the starting databases of the last few versions you'll likely see similar variations, (as shown above even the same version database update changes things) also the leagues and database options you select at the start will alter your starting position - I tried to recreate the set up I used in my save game but cannot remember the advanced options I selected and selecting different options gives different results.

Also even a snapshot of the four seasons above isn't really enough to spot any major trends or issues as you'd really need to grab a snapshot each season for a good 10 or 20 seasons to get the full cycle as you can see the variation in just my numbers for 2025 and 2026 - I'd expect a longer term sampling would show the amounts would go up and down as the game would produce fewer high PA players to balance out the development of these wonderkids.

 

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