Do you adapt your tactics based on the match odds?

[edhdurham]

Just a query if anyone uses the match odds to determine how they play...  back in the Champ Manager days I would have a Home (more attacking) tactic and an Away (more counter tactic) and would start with them no matter what, since coming back to FM (having played FM Mobile for the last few years) I am switching between those tactic depending on the match odds...  but just playing around and the Home and Away seems a little bit more consistent (although I have only played a few games).

So for example away in the cup against a lower league team, played my counter attack formation despite being favourites and it was a breeze, but of course it could just be the quality of my players...  so just thought I would see what others do?

[Svenc]

Personally, no. Not as such. It can give you a massively clue as to how AI may approach a match though.. From expecting no less than a convincing victory at short odds to just avoid a heavy thrashing at long ones, all goes. So from the odds you may be able to work some out where your troubles are going to be. Broken down to its most simplistic, there is two extreme scenarios. A side playing aggressive attacking football and a side parking the bus. The latter of which has traditionally oft caused the most pain.

The in-match odds work nothing like actual odds in football work, btw. You have sides getting rated massively different in-game just by  a few positive or negative results, for a start. Massively swings in there. Just doesn't happen with real life football odds. Just because a side wins a few, doesN't necessarily mean they did so by being all that superior... in particular not in football, a sports where matches are settled in pitifully key seconds of 90 minutes. And by far the most common scorelines are 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 0-0, etc.

[edhdurham]

Great, thanks...  there are times when I go on a good run and maybe Man Utd are struggling and it has me as the favourite, I used to play my more attacking formation and generally get beat, so games where I think the odds are just wrong I tend to have caution anyway...  so I might try a Home and Away tactic and see how it goes and just tweak certain instructions based on the scout report, maybe this is why I am seeing inconsistency with my tactic at times.

[AFCBeer]

It’s true that FM odds aren’t like real odds but when I see I’m 1/6 to win at home I treat this as a warning sign. I always find it difficult to win these games. 

In some respects it does make sense. Clearly the AI is going to use ‘Park the Bus’ tactics and they may well benefit from a “nothing to lose lads” type team talk which might give them a small boost. On the flip side your players could have a bit of complacency which affects their performance. Complacency is mentioned in your tactics feedback, Ass Man feedback and body language screen - if it’s in the game, then it must have an effect. 

One of the things I like to do in these situations is a fast high intensity start. So aggressive team talk, overload, fast tempo, heavy closing down via OI’s too.

If this doesn’t work I go completely the opposite after 10-15 mins. I switch to defensive or even contain and play structured but with maximum width. The idea is to remain patient and to protect myself from getting FM’d! In theory I have the better players so eventually so my quality should tell. If not the worse case is 0-0. 

Its easy to get frustrated by failing to win as heavy favourites. I just find whenever I try to force the issue the more likely I am to get the sucker punch. At the end of the season, those 0-0’s might just be vital compared to FMing myself and getting nothing. 

[sporadicsmiles]

On 15/02/2018 at 19:48, AFCBeer said:

It’s true that FM odds aren’t like real odds but when I see I’m 1/6 to win at home I treat this as a warning sign. I always find it difficult to win these games. 

In some respects it does make sense. Clearly the AI is going to use ‘Park the Bus’ tactics and they may well benefit from a “nothing to lose lads” type team talk which might give them a small boost. On the flip side your players could have a bit of complacency which affects their performance. Complacency is mentioned in your tactics feedback, Ass Man feedback and body language screen - if it’s in the game, then it must have an effect. 

One of the things I like to do in these situations is a fast high intensity start. So aggressive team talk, overload, fast tempo, heavy closing down via OI’s too.

If this doesn’t work I go completely the opposite after 10-15 mins. I switch to defensive or even contain and play structured but with maximum width. The idea is to remain patient and to protect myself from getting FM’d! In theory I have the better players so eventually so my quality should tell. If not the worse case is 0-0. 

Its easy to get frustrated by failing to win as heavy favourites. I just find whenever I try to force the issue the more likely I am to get the sucker punch. At the end of the season, those 0-0’s might just be vital compared to FMing myself and getting nothing. 

On the contrary, I very very rarely have any problems breaking down a defensive side in the end (it just takes some time). I know I can sit and let things play out, and we will create enough that we will score. Struggling to break down super defensive sides points to being too aggressive with roles, and trying to exploit space rather than create it (this is usually the cause of second season syndrome too). Sometimes, however, you just have to take it on the chin. Think how pleased you are when, as an overwhelming underdog, you secure an amazing draw or win that you totally do not deserve. That is football.

I tend to alter the way I play much more against larger sides, although I pay zero attention to the odds. Typically, I will either drop into my counter attacking setup and pick the fastest forwards I have, or I will carefully watch a game and see who/what is causing me issues against bigger teams, and try to resolve it. Usually this means going more direct (if being heavily pressured in my own third of the pitch), man marking a player who is continually getting free and causing me issues, more rarely formation changes to specifically counter the AI.

[NabsKebabs]

I alter my tactics based on the opposition scouting report. At the start of a save I will usually create 3 different tactics (different formations) and use them based on what the opposition is playing. For example in my current AC Milan save I will usually play a control/very fluid 41221 (433) possession style tactic if the opposition scouting report suggests the opposition wants to sit back and defend (deep formation/low mentality/structured shape/defensive fullbacks). If the opposition is playing a 4231 with wingbacks (Juventus, Inter Milan) I start with my counter/structured 442 tactic. 

So in a way I actually sort of do it based on the odds indirectly but it's more about countering the opposition's play style. 

[Rashidi]

No I don't.

I adapt to what the AI is doing in the game. If the AI is front loading, then I check my defensive line. If the AI is using attacking wingbacks I attack its flanks

[thomit]

Not so much tactics as such, but in matches where the odds are heavily stacked in my favour I make sure to give squad players and prospects with fewer starts some competitive playing time.

[Deego619]

Sort of.

If I am a heavy underdog away from home I KNOW that the opposition are going to come and attack me so I plan ahead with my team selection but do not alter my tactic. For example, I play a 4-4-1-1 at Bilbao and usually Raul Garcia plays AM, but if the opposition is a heavy favourite I might play Williams here instead to utilize his pace darting beyond a high line.

[onionbag]

On 2/17/2018 at 11:28, Rashidi said:

No I don't.

I adapt to what the AI is doing in the game. If the AI is front loading, then I check my defensive line. If the AI is using attacking wingbacks I attack its flanks

This is what I do also. I have very neutral base tactics that are used at the start of the match. Few PIs and team instructions. Then I make tweaks to counter, or exploit, what I see. Full matches are best, but most of the time I am in comprehensive. If the opponent is marking and closing down tightly, and my players are receiving the ball and having it nicked straight away, I'll go to a higher tempo, or use pass in to space to exploit the close marking. Far easier to turn a player who is your back pocket, but getting balls in to feet is playing in to the opponent's hands.

If the opponent is booming long balls over the top, I will drop my defensive line. If my wingers are struggling to move the ball on the flank, I'll change them to Inverted Wingers or Inside Forwards, and they now operate in the channels and half-spaces. If the opponent is stepping in front of too many passes, I will go narrower, to decrease the distance between my players, and giving the AI less time (presumably) to intercept. If my Poacher/Advanced Forward is being marked out of the game, I will drop him deeper, with False Nine or DLF, often with little regard to his suitability for the new role. A striker with full green suitability and no space to operate, is less desirable than an orange one with acres. If crosses from the flanks are continually being blocked, it's cross from deep or vice versa depending on which was already being used. Are my fullbacks being burned or not contributing to the build up? Change mentality or role. If I am in Control, and the opponent is packing the box and difficult to break down, I'll go Standard, dropping deeper and pulling the opponent further from his goal. If they are bombing their fullbacks forward, exploit the flanks. Push wingers forward, which not only puts the player in the vacated space, but might hold the defender deeper and limit his attacking runs. One of the most desirable things your tactic can do is pull central defenders out of position. Nothing does this like a winger beating his man. That draws the center back over and creates space in front of goal.

For me it's about observing, and reacting to what I see to open up space, and create more chances. I don't always get it right. Sometimes I think players find a great tactic and have success and, feeling it's a good tactic, keep throwing it out there. When it works, great. But when it doesn't, what will you do to fix it? Every tactic, every shape, every instruction has it's kryptonite. No tactic is fool-proof against every other. The only thing that makes it possible is, I think, is when the tactic is created with such good players, that they mask the faults, and get the job done regardless.  At Port Vale, I don't have that luxury, and it's up to me to put the players in good positions. The tactic that just smoked Exeter, might find it tough going against Luton Town, and it's important I think to be able to recognize why, and make meaningful changes on the fly, instead of just hoping it comes good, since it did the match before.