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kireel

Is this even possible in RL?!?!?!

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image.thumb.png.75b41d60c18cd6827a2c8104e75ad5ab.png

 

This was the drop for me.... I am done with football manager... Those algorithms are .... I find no pleasure in playing against a dynamic AI that  constantly changes in the course of a single match.. It is impossible not to micromanage and I hate it.. I`ve supported football simulators since CM and now I am done.. I mean it is possible to have one match like this in a decade (even not that often).. But I am having several of them every  season.. That is just ridiculous.. Somebody in SI should seriously consider to loosen up the match engine a natch or two...

 

Im out.. THANKS FOR A RUINED GAME..

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There are matches like that in real football too. I did cut out the swearing. Maybe you will calm down like most managers do after such a match?

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Show me a team that is a huge favorite to win a match and fulfills that favorite stamp by bombarding the opposition penalty area and totally controlling the ball possession, but still manages to lose 3-0, even tho every single players morale was almost perfect before the start of the game.... Until the 85th min Inter had 1 shot in total which they scored on..

 

here is a couple more of examples...

 I mean, come on....

image.thumb.png.a550c760191fd6ab61cf646d28c1261a.pngimage.thumb.png.daaa0f87e74ac5bd39c1f6eb7b7eb9cd.png

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vor 2 Minuten schrieb kireel:

Show me a team that is a huge favorite to win a match and fulfills that favorite stamp by bombarding the opposition penalty area and totally controlling the ball possession, but still manages to lose 3-0, even tho every single players morale was almost perfect before the start of the game.... Until the 85th min Inter had 1 shot in total which they scored on..

 

here is a couple more of examples...

 I mean, come on....

https://www.sportskeeda.com/football/stats-leicester-city-possession-stats-compared-epl-champions-recent-years

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Yeah it is a point, but how often can a team that supposedly is the best in the league lose games like this in a season???? 11 CCC??? I mean it has something to do with the oppositions game plan, but in this game if the match could`ve lasted for days and Inter would`ve kept on countering my attacks or whatever they did to my team, I still would`n have scored a single goal, even with 3000 CCC... And that has something to do with scripted matches...

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vor 1 Minute schrieb kireel:

 And that has something to do with scripted matches...

No, because there are no scripted matches in the game. Why don't you change your tactic and be a bit more patient instead of attacking all the way and open spaces for the other team?

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Just now, wkdsoul said:

Looks like the stats of the Man U/Arsenal game last week. 

Yes it does.. In my 20 years or so as a huge football fan and a passionate follower of most of European leagues I can count matches like that on one hand, simply because it is not normal..

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vor 10 Minuten schrieb kireel:

Yes it does.. In my 20 years or so as a huge football fan and a passionate follower of most of European leagues I can count matches like that on one hand, simply because it is not normal..

Simply not true, this happens a lot more and it is one of the reasons why most of the people not getting rich with betting on scores.

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Ya, it can. All three goals scored after a sending off for Angers too.

bRbhemZ.jpg

Watch the stats of almost every Madrid match this season where they dropped the points, including Ronaldos curious record of going with but two goals in the league until two weeks ago (scoring 2 in 70 shots over months). Burnley are currently making a season out of it (more detailed metrics suggest that they may allow tons of comparably low-probality attempts which shot volumes don't cover -- FM lacks that kind of feedback -- I am never worried ever getting "outshot" when dropping deep myself on this game).


https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1190176/MatchReport/England-Premier-League-2017-2018-Chelsea-Burnley
https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1190300/MatchReport/England-Premier-League-2017-2018-Southampton-Burnley
https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1190255/MatchReport/England-Premier-League-2017-2018-Everton-Burnley
https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1190214/MatchReport/England-Premier-League-2017-2018-Burnley-Crystal-Palace
https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1190201/MatchReport/England-Premier-League-2017-2018-Tottenham-Burnley
https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1190214/MatchReport/England-Premier-League-2017-2018-Burnley-Crystal-Palace
https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1190196/MatchReport/England-Premier-League-2017-2018-Liverpool-Burnley



The question is how does it come about in-game. The ME isn't football. There's quirks such as central forwards barely getting behind the ball and immediately being available for a quick break; extreme AI tactical switches such as an AI manager keeping half a side always on defend duty behind the ball only to throw players forward in bursts; but also possibly marking bugs and defensive holes/issues. If you add to this that it's oft traditionally possible to "bloat" the shot counts with shots that have a comparably limited chance of converting (most set piece attempts, shots in crowded areas), that's some of the damage. Likewise though,  teams can also play like no team in football does easily (the tactical UI allows it without stopping anybody -- including AI managers). Outside of actual marking bugs, you wouldn't have "this" every other week without some own input interfering -- guaranteed. The game, unfortunately, or fortunately, has never spoon fed solutions, and some of its feedback is also very lacking. For instance, the post match report makes sides not scoring despite having x amount the shots to be simply "wasteful", which often enough isn't at all the case. It sure as hell isn't in football. And in-game, is frustration guaranteed.

Edited by Svenc

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Almost every time Arsenal lose to a side that isn't another "big club", it looks like that. So 3-4 times a season, usually. Sometimes more. 

If opponents are "Leicester'ing", what are you doing to counter it? Pushing high up, having no space to work in, take a ton of bad shots, and leaving yourself open to counters is going to burn you sometimes. 

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10 minutes ago, Bigpapa42 said:

Almost every time Arsenal lose to a side that isn't another "big club", it looks like that. So 3-4 times a season, usually. Sometimes more. 

If opponents are "Leicester'ing", what are you doing to counter it? Pushing high up, having no space to work in, take a ton of bad shots, and leaving yourself open to counters is going to burn you sometimes. 

Speaking about, during that season I tried to replicate Leicester somewhat. Early January were sitting up top with a seasonal pass completion of 65% (and a shot conversion of 16-17% -- which is, one goal for every 6th to 7th shot). Unfortunately, none of the stats the game offers does the games any justice, as none of them reflect how easy it was to get around each team's backline the limited times when going forward. AI managers on this game don't "respond" to easy balls over their backline either way. Conversely, if they concede first, they switch to something even more aggressive.... that was some funny stuff sometimes. Long-term, naturally, they turn more cautious, and scoring becomes a few more difficult. Still had this stored as that was some funny stuff. I was close to reporting it due to how the AI oft responded. In the German community we were briefly collecting a few matches outlining how stupidly aggressive Guardiola in-game was in particular (he has very aggressive traits in the db anyway).

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Edited by Svenc

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This also happens for players though. I've had a lot of games like this where I'm the one who stole it. Let me dig up a couple of examples from my Marine game:

k8zZegD.pngdim4bm0.png

In all honesty, take a look at Liverpool's matches last season, or Man Utd at home to Burnley the same season. These things happen and it's almost certainly down to how the tactical instructions of both teams involved. If the attacking team don't get lateral movement from their players then everything will be constricted into a small space around the defending team's box. And long shots and blocked shot (for a mass of corners) is bound to happen. You might get lucky with either of those, or get unlucky and caught on a break (or several ones) from the defending team and lose the game.

If this happens regularly then I would take a look at the tactic and try to find out how to improve, if I can't then I would ask in the tactics section of this forum where very good tactical minds hang out and see if they have any input.

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6 hours ago, kireel said:

Show me a team that is a huge favorite to win a match and fulfills that favorite stamp by bombarding the opposition penalty area and totally controlling the ball possession, but still manages to lose 3-0, even tho every single players morale was almost perfect before the start of the game.... Until the 85th min Inter had 1 shot in total which they scored on..

 

 

Liverpool do this all the time.....(so frustrating)

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9 hours ago, kireel said:

Show me a team that is a huge favorite to win a match and fulfills that favorite stamp by bombarding the opposition penalty area and totally controlling the ball possession, but still manages to lose 3-0, even tho every single players morale was almost perfect before the start of the game.... Until the 85th min Inter had 1 shot in total which they scored on..

 

here is a couple more of examples...

 I mean, come on....

image.thumb.png.a550c760191fd6ab61cf646d28c1261a.pngimage.thumb.png.daaa0f87e74ac5bd39c1f6eb7b7eb9cd.png

The match engine currently offers the counter attacking team good opportunities to get some deadly attacks going. I had a phase in my last save game where I ran into the same problem, had a real go at my opponents and was cruising all season when all of a sudden I got hit on the counter again and again. It's hard under the impressions of the success you had to change your ways and not play the exact way you did before but after I had been without a win in 5 games straight I decided to look at the matter more and realized that due to my long winning streak teams started to play very defensive against me, coupled with my aggressive pressing my players would get pulled all over the pitch and leave massive gaps for the oppositions strikers and wingers to exploit. I toned down the pressing and decided to go for a more patient build up so I could avoid losing the ball in dangerous situations. What happened? I got back to my winning ways within a couple of games and didn't need to micro manage that much.

So yeah if this is a reoccurring pattern for your team change your basic approach, Inter usually has a couple of capable players so maybe turn down the attacking approach against them and be a bit more careful, have one or two more roles on defensive or support duties and try not to lose the ball in dangerous areas too much.

Oh yeah and there is another thing, since this is football you might even do everything correct and chose the right approach as well but still might lose due to individual errors from players but well that's football and a frustration we all have to live with.

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I understand your frustration, but this DO happen. I didn't see your tactic, but you're probably do control mentality and possession football. Usually ending up - especially as a stronger team when your opponent go defensive - in a compressed space near their penalty box with all of them there, where most of your shots get blocked or wasted as your players try hard to shoot it somewhere through the wall of men.

On the other hand CCC conversion has room for improvement I think, Icardi in perfect morale, with 19finishing, 19composure, 15technique,18 decision misfires badly 4 out of 5 times when facing the keeper one-on-one.

If you're in a situation like this go for 'defensive' instead and try to play wider,

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@zigaliro Also a real-life example of a few simplistic "television stats" that don't tell the entire story. Starting with that Celtic's winner was easily the biggest chance of the match due to some defending, which allowed Celtic a simle keeper kick topping the entire Barcelona defense, and the only instance the entire match where a forward was unleashed behind the backline.

10 hours ago, Bigpapa42 said:

Almost every time Arsenal lose to a side that isn't another "big club", it looks like that. So 3-4 times a season, usually. Sometimes more.

Arsenal are often also one of the sides that create a buttload of actually quality in general, but still drop the points. Part of which is perfectly normal, as defending is easier than attacking, which is why Manchester City currently too are the team that misses the most in terms of quality, with several players such as Aguero or Jesus missing alone a one on one/close range finish each per match [it is the sheer volumes that does it for them]. I have a suspicious that's why Cavani oft gets a lot of flak at PSG as well -- he's so oft in decent position to score from his off the ball skills etc. that he's naturally also missing more often than not, which is normal (outside of tap-ins and pens, the forward is rarely expected to score). guys were already theorizing when they brought Neymar in that if Cavani would score this much, Neymar would destroy the league. Surprise, hasn't come to pass. If their conversion was any higher, they'd be aliens.

So. To take this some from the top.

1) Barely happens in football, all of this.Matches from the last weekend in European football.

https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1225304/MatchReport/Italy-Serie-A-2017-2018-Inter-Udinese
https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1192534/MatchReport/England-Championship-2017-2018-Brentford-Barnsley
https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1225302/MatchReport/Italy-Serie-A-2017-2018-Fiorentina-Genoa
https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1225303/MatchReport/Italy-Serie-A-2017-2018-Verona-AC-Milan
https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1190908/MatchReport/France-Ligue-1-2017-2018-Lyon-Marseille
https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1202011/MatchReport/Germany-Bundesliga-2017-2018-RasenBallsport-Leipzig-Hertha-Berlin
 

 

2) Yes, but rarely happens to the same team, does it?

https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1190288/MatchReport/England-Premier-League-2017-2018-Leicester-Tottenham
https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1190330/MatchReport/England-Premier-League-2017-2018-Tottenham-West-Bromwich-Albion
https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1190202/MatchReport/England-Premier-League-2017-2018-Tottenham-Swansea
https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1190201/MatchReport/England-Premier-League-2017-2018-Tottenham-Burnley
https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1190209/MatchReport/England-Premier-League-2017-2018-Tottenham-Chelsea
https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1243309/MatchReport/England-League-Cup-2017-2018-Tottenham-West-Ham

 

What does and can happen in-game more is ridiculous shot counts with no goal (and the opposition scoring the only one). However that, in the meantime, takes ignoring all the spoon feeding feedback thee game has introduced in the tactics screen, such as the red zones on the pitch. So this isn't strictly defending the game, already argued that some feedback is bad. However, if you go with something halfway sensible here, you usually don#t see anything much that wouldn't happen hugely much in football else. Now if SI coded the AI to be more sensible in some of its nonsensical selections too. If anything, you may get the suspicious they are coded to be "stupid" on the occasion so that players wouldN't accuse the game of cheating/being scripted. :seagull:;) edit: What makes the Burnley RL example to be so remarkable is that they concede the MOST SHOTS in the league, yet concede no more goals than City et all. I don't think that's even doable in-game, certainly not for the length of half a season gone!

Edited by Svenc

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It's slightly off-topic but statistically I love football more than the game (the core argument is stats, after all). It's far more cruel and random than the game for sure. Imagine you were just promoted. Outside of the select elite few, you "statistically" keep your matches about equal most of the time, even against China cash infused former CL winners; but lo and behold, despite amassing 220+ odd shots in half a year, you "celebrate" christmas with less than 10 goals scored to show for it and not a single win... In the meantime, at least the "Burnley spell" looks to be broken (if only by a cheeky Kane penalty). Ronaldo added another half a dozen to his 4 goals out of 80 shots season in La Liga, though (that guy is BUGGED). :D Happy CHristmas!

https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1225145/MatchReport/Italy-Serie-A-2017-2018-Sampdoria-Benevento
https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1225148/MatchReport/Italy-Serie-A-2017-2018-Benevento-Bologna
https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1225159/MatchReport/Italy-Serie-A-2017-2018-Benevento-Torino
https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1225179/MatchReport/Italy-Serie-A-2017-2018-Benevento-Roma
https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1225189/MatchReport/Italy-Serie-A-2017-2018-Crotone-Benevento
https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1225238/MatchReport/Italy-Serie-A-2017-2018-Benevento-Lazio
https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1225299/MatchReport/Italy-Serie-A-2017-2018-Benevento-SPAL-2013
https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1225258/MatchReport/Italy-Serie-A-2017-2018-Benevento-Sassuolo
https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1225278/MatchReport/Italy-Serie-A-2017-2018-Benevento-AC-Milan
https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1225297/MatchReport/Italy-Serie-A-2017-2018-Udinese-Benevento
https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1225299/MatchReport/Italy-Serie-A-2017-2018-Benevento-SPAL-2013
https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1225299/MatchReport/Italy-Serie-A-2017-2018-Benevento-SPAL-2013

https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1225310/MatchReport/Italy-Serie-A-2017-2018-Genoa-Benevento

 

 

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It depends more on CCC or XG (irl) than shots. So in your case yeah, it seems like an a anomaly to have 11 CCC's and zero goals. 

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1 hour ago, Cap'nRad said:

It depends more on CCC or XG (irl) than shots. So in your case yeah, it seems like an a anomaly to have 11 CCC's and zero goals. 

Could be. As in real football "big chances" start at about goal expectations of about scoring 1 in 5-6, it's hard to tell how unusual it was. From scoring 1 in 5-6 it's not that insane a stretch to not scoring 1 in 10ish -- in particular if all the CCCs were of the more difficult type (and the players were probably already displayed frustrated from missing). From experience, in-game most narrow, no angled one on ones are of the more difficult type, with the keeper immediately rushing out to close the angle. FM's "CCC" stat remains a subjective SI interpretation of a subjective stat that is barely used anywhere. It's an entire semantic debate at SI. Like, should we include header finishes into our CCC stat (no matter the likelyhood of it resulting into a goal according to our calculations?) Which is why play properly wrong-footing the defense/keeper oft isn't classed a CCC, whilst every dreaded, more difficult one on one with the keeper oft easy able to anticipate is.

BOth CCCS/xg are very different metrics too.

xG rates every shot invididually, assigning it a "probability score".
CCCs or rather Opta Data Big Chances lump all kinds of stuff together, just like shot counts. At least the Opta one has a definition proper. :p

In football, stuff is also assessed by a horde of willing match data grunts eyeing matches. They are also schooled personnell
In-game, not only is the game based on numbers and calculations, as it's a match code meant to simulate football. There is also an (inherently flawed) stats algorithm weighting a few factors (distance to goal, angle to goal, distance to next defender) by the time of the shot, and on occasion rating a shot a CCC or not according to that weighting. Unfortunately, you can't put overly value in that stat from experience, and that's never changed. The most wonderfully ridiculous (and rage-guaranteed) stance on "managing" in FM can be summed up by the following player quote.
 

Quote

At the end of the day, all we can do as humans is create a tactic which dominates possession, creates clear cut chances and gets shots on target.

  -> The guy who's written this will one day die of an FM-infused heart attack guaranteed. :D

 

Edited by Svenc

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31 minutes ago, Svenc said:

As in real football "big chances" start about goal expectations of about scoring 1 in 5-6, it's hard to tell how unusual it was. From scoring 1 in 5-6 it's not that huge a stretch to not scoring in 11 -- in particular if all the CCCs were of the more difficult type.

I'd say it's a massive stretch to have no goals from 11 chances. Also, averaging the finishing level of all footballers of various levels into one stat is bound to be inaccurate due to its simplicity.

 

31 minutes ago, Svenc said:

From experience, in-game any narrow no angled one on one in particular, with the keeper immediately rushing out to close the angle.

Aye and this is also inaccurate as goalkeeper movement and abilities are quite generic in fm. Not every goalie narrows the angle with such speed and accuracy, and quite a few will make silly fouls resulting in penalties (also basically nonexistent in current fm's).

 

31 minutes ago, Svenc said:

In particular considering that FM's "CCC" stat is a subjective SI interpretation of a subjective stat that isn't used anywhere.

I think it's supposed to represent something like XG's in the game. To me the more subjective stat is half chances. Like what does that one even mean??

 

31 minutes ago, Svenc said:

whilst every dreaded, more difficult one on one with the keeper oft easy able to anticipate is.

Irl especially if playing the same level of opponent, the keeper is usually at a disadvantage due to the nature of the chance. Of course not as much as your aforementioned cutback goal, but still enough to be able to score most of those chances.

 

31 minutes ago, Svenc said:

In real football, stuff is also assessed by a horde of willing match data grunts eyeing matches. They are also schooled personnell and see things oft very different than pundits on television [the data grunts would outperform the pundits by huge margins].
In-game, not only is the game based on numbers and calculations, as it's a match code meant to simulate football. There is also an (inherently flawed) stats algorithm weighting a few factors (distance to goal, angle to goal, distance to next defender) by the time of the shot, and on occasion rating a shot a CCC or not according to that weighting. Unfortunately, you can't put value in that stat from experience, and that's never changed. 

Aye but CCC's aren't based on nothing, there's clearly a good chance in there, and any team who allows for 6 good chances in a single match deserves to concede at least one goal, let alone double that amount

 

31 minutes ago, Svenc said:

The most wonderfully ridiculous (and rage-guaranteed) stance on "managing" in FM can be summed up by the following user quote.
 

Quote

At the end of the day, all we can do as humans is create a tactic which dominates possession, creates clear cut chances and gets shots on target.

Eh it's a logical statement, just obviously doesn't see the bigger side to management. Deinitely partially accurate though.

 

31 minutes ago, Svenc said:

  -> The guy who's written this will one day die of an FM-infused heart attack guaranteed. :D

 

Eh, it's probably because at the end of the day he/ she likes the game  is passionate about it. Not a bad thing imo.:)

Edited by Cap'nRad

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46 minutes ago, Cap'nRad said:

Aye but CCC's aren't based on nothing, there's clearly a good chance in there, and any team who allows for 6 good chances in a single match deserves to concede at least one goal, let alone double that amount

Arsenal miss up to 5 in their matches. That is the Opta Data Big Chances (one on ones / close range finishes), which are assessed by a human eye. If it's really 11 CCCs in there, might be worth an upload. In past incarnations, the stats algorithm had been awarding CCCs left and right to any random shot...
 

Quote

I'd say it's a massive stretch to have no goals from 11 chances. Also, averaging the finishing level of all footballers of various levels into one stat is bound to be inaccurate due to its simplicity.



It has flaws. It is also based on studies proven to be useful, whichs uggest that the gap in finishing the end product between players isn't that comically big. What influences is that players compete on the level they eventually "belong to", or else they wouldn't be sided/fielded, even bought or kept by clubs. So fairly "leveled" performances are some to be expected. This goes for the keepers/defenders opposing too. The bigger skill is getting into the position/space to regularly have that opportunity in the first place. This is somewhat replicated in-game anyway, as you can make the best forwards struggling to score / for space [what FM imo doesn't replicate is that forwards, even teams can go on droughts despite having opportunity, Ronaldo, cough cough]. The keeper outside of penalties and tap-ins typically has the edge, defending is easier than attacking, which is a fundamental in any team sports. This is also replicated in the game in some way, anyhow. Likely also a very flawed one though. :D In football, classs forwards long-term score about 1 in 3 of their one on ones from open play.

The above player quote is suspect on a few levels. :D No less as giving up possession can open space and INCREASE the likelyhood of scoring in-game or in football... the only stat worth dominating is the goals. If the game would have one that were somewhat telling to space created, that were class. 11 CCCs may be stretching it though agreed. I'd upload that in the bugs forums to have a check. That way, statistical issues as well as for instance keeper reaches AFAIR have been tweaked in the past. :)

Edited by Svenc

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1 hour ago, Svenc said:

The keeper outside of penalties and tap-ins typically has the edge

Here is a non exhaustive list of tools the finisher in real life possesses when in the one-on-one

- Rounding the keeper if he comes out quickly

- Lobbing the keeper if he goes down too quickly

- Placing past the keeper if he commits too early/ late

- Through the legs of the keeper as his stance is naturally vulnerable to that

- Drawing a penalty by knocking the ball past if the keeper's too close

etc.

Only one or two are prominently featured in the current fm, only a few even exist. Which is kinda weird because those sort of finishes existed in previous fm's. In any case, of course in fm the keeper has the advantage because the striker barely has any tools to work with. Irl though I don't think the keeper has a natural advantage, as his actions can be countered with moves in the above list, especially with strikers of similar or better calibre as him.

1 hour ago, Svenc said:

In football, classs forwards long-term score about 1 in 3 of their one on ones from open play.

The question we need to ask next is why? I think focusing too much on the stat itself leads to situations where you develop with the aim of replicating the stat, as opposed to understanding why it's happening and instead replicating that. Also, what's the context of that stat?

 

1 hour ago, Svenc said:

The above player quote is suspect on a few levels, though. :D No less as giving up possession can open space and INCREASE the likelyhood of scoring in-game or in football... the only stat worth dominating that FM has on offer is the goals.

Aye agreed. A lot of the more 'practical' managers prefer focus on what gets goals as opposed to possession and the like. Which makes things a bit interesting as some very valid gameplans don't even rely on CCC's and instead rely on player qualities such as freekick taking, long shots, height at corners, etc to get goals. I wonder if such gameplans are viable in fm. Something like creating space in deeper areas just in front of the box for players like Dybala, Messi, Pogba, etc to shoot is viable irl but I'm not sure if it translates in game.

Edited by Cap'nRad

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@kireel I used to be as frustrated as you, friend. But, I’ve come to accept that I will struggle for a long time trying to get from the Championship to the PL on my save (I am already about 8 seasons in a row in this division).

I expect now to struggle in most games and those lower expectations make losses easier to swallow :)

Edit: A fine example just occurred. Lost away to bottom-of-the-table Chesterfield 3-0. Any other time I’d have been fining my players left, right and centre. But now instead, I’m just like ‘unlucky lads’ and moving on.

Edited by SMV90

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