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Pooreman1972

Is it me or is it pre-decided whether you lose or not?

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I have been going great guns considering I am managing Bristol City. I was on course to reach the playoffs and with an outside chance of achieving automatic promotion. Then, for no discernible reason I went on a 12 match losing streak... Losing games 3, 4 & 5 nil, with most games following the same pattern as per attached screenshot. 

I understand that the only stat that counts is the final score, however this just does not make sense. As I say this is pretty much how every match has gone, we completely dominated possession, had many chances, and then out of the blue the opposition ping the ball around like Barcelona and score. 

Screen Shot 2017-12-18 at 11.53.33.jpg

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No; it is all related to your tactics, the way you change them (or don't change them), the way your opposing AI managers adapt their tactics to deal with you, the morale and attitude of your players, your man management, injuries, personnel, and some random luck of course.

Personally, I am currently enjoying about a 40-game unbeaten run and am undefeated in all competitions I am in this season. I am not in the slightest saying that to boast, but rather to make the point that the game has not decided that it likes me, but does not like you :D

Have a look in the tactics forum; there's a lot covering this kind of thing.

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From the screenshot, it looks like Sheffield Wednesday played a counter attacking game. You had all the possession and more off target shots - but the 11-7 shots on target stat tells us it wasn't all one way traffic though.

Regarding your losing streak - this has happened to me when I have a been managing a newly promoted team who are clearly punching above their weight. IMHO the key here is to use an alternative tactic to mix things up a bit. Try to grind out a couple of draws to stop the rot and then kick on. It helps if you have SUS or defensive tactic your team have some experience of using. 

 

Edited by Dalglish

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If something happens 12 times in a row you are doing something wrong. Like always in FM it's not always quite obvious what it is but teams change their approach against you after you have had a certain period of success and a lot of wins. It might just simply be that all teams now play very defensive against you and hit you on the counter, so you will happen to see these games where you dominate and the opposition gets a couple of counters and they score the winning goals with those.

That means you need to change your tactics in a way to combat that. If you getting hit on the counter, try and take a calmer approach to build up. Stretch the playing field vertically and horizontally as much as you can and don't lose the ball.

If you're getting pressured into losing the ball a lot may try dropping deeper and a more direct passing.

Sometimes it's as easy as just change some player roles, get hit with attacks over the wings a lot? Maybe change your FBs to defend and instruct them to stay wider.

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2 hours ago, Pooreman1972 said:

I have been going great guns considering I am managing Bristol City. I was on course to reach the playoffs and with an outside chance of achieving automatic promotion. Then, for no discernible reason I went on a 12 match losing streak... Losing games 3, 4 & 5 nil, with most games following the same pattern as per attached screenshot. 

I understand that the only stat that counts is the final score, however this just does not make sense. As I say this is pretty much how every match has gone, we completely dominated possession, had many chances, and then out of the blue the opposition ping the ball around like Barcelona and score. 

Screen Shot 2017-12-18 at 11.53.33.jpg

Teams lose. Even good teams. That might sound obvious, but I can't believe that some failure rate isn't built in. It wouldn't be exciting otherwise. Ask yourself whether you want to win the league by March every year, or bite your nails at 2 in the morning on a Champions League qualification six pointer!

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if it helps, I went on a 26 NON losing streak though I lost the opening game of the season I was unbeaten for at least 25 matches eventually losing to Birmingham 3-0 at home

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4 minutes ago, MrPompey said:

if it helps, I went on a 26 NON losing streak though I lost the opening game of the season I was unbeaten for at least 25 matches eventually losing to Birmingham 3-0 at home

I've just lost my first prem game in 19 matches, in fact its my first defeat of the entire season. Serves me right for tinkering

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1 minute ago, themadsheep2001 said:

I've just lost my first prem game in 19 matches, in fact its my first defeat of the entire season. Serves my right for tinkering

Never mind Brendan, you're still the best  manager Liverpool ever had  ;-)

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I still think it's random... If you save before a match, play it, quit and re-play it and repeat that pattern five times without changing a thing, you can get 5 very different results. Like 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses. 

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Matches is calculated during the match, if you sub a player or change tactics it will re-calculate from that point forward. The game does calculate ahead of what you see, because it translate the ME mathematics into the visual we see on screen. That is why the animation can be weird at times, because the math is trying to match real world football statistics, while it makes every bit of sense to create statistics from random data, it just look silly with all the weird goal keeper interaction that create corners, because the ME is trying to recreate randomness from statistics and it need X number of corners and sometimes the only animation choice is to have the GK walk off the pitch with the ball in his hands to create a corner.

 

There is one (I think it's only one) case where the game has calculated result in advance and that is cup draws, it does the draw before the day that you get the little menu to watch the draw, so saving and reloading on that day won't change the draw result. I think you have to reload all the way back to the end of the last round, to get a save that is before the calculation.

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3 minutes ago, Miravlix said:

Matches is calculated during the match, if you sub a player or change tactics it will re-calculate from that point forward. The game does calculate ahead of what you see, because it translate the ME mathematics into the visual we see on screen. That is why the animation can be weird at times, because the math is trying to match real world football statistics, while it makes every bit of sense to create statistics from random data, it just look silly with all the weird goal keeper interaction that create corners, because the ME is trying to recreate randomness from statistics and it need X number of corners and sometimes the only animation choice is to have the GK walk off the pitch with the ball in his hands to create a corner.

 

There is one (I think it's only one) case where the game has calculated result in advance and that is cup draws, it does the draw before the day that you get the little menu to watch the draw, so saving and reloading on that day won't change the draw result. I think you have to reload all the way back to the end of the last round, to get a save that is before the calculation.

This is not how the match engine works. It doesn't work to fit statistics

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9 minutes ago, Pooreman1972 said:

Hmmm, obviously the computer is a tactical mastermind.... A complete crock if you ask me.

IRL teams that dominate matches with possession/shots etc drop points in 25% of matches on average.

Just look at Leicester winning the EPL a couple of seasons ago as an example of that.

 

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Yes I appreciate that sometimes these things happen, even in real life. But this is beyond a joke.

Blackpool played a 4-2-3-1 formation, pretty attacking in my mind, they were certainly not set up to defend and counter attack. That said they did score their goal on the counter, yes this happens, but it was 4 quick passes upfield and it was in the back of the net...  Additionally, throughout the match my players worked hard to get the ball in to scoring positions only to hit the post, the bar, the keeper make 3or4 point blank saves. And this is not just a one off, this is happening all the time.

IRL, teams that dominate games in this manner win matches. I mean I could understand it if I had 60% possession but only 5 shots say, I could work out that maybe I am doing something wrong, but 60% possession, 20 shots, 50% of which were on target... To not even score 1 goal, It just doesn't add up for me. 

 

 

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The "Problem" can be summed up by the following.In real football, managers don't tend to set up their sides to dominate possession and shots. They set up their sides to open and deny spaces. Giving up possession and forcing opposition to poor shots is a viable tactics after all. If FM could introduce graphcis like these, then everybody would see it. As it is, you still have bad theory of match play arbitrarily fitting statistics (see above), when it's the complete other way around. To have anything like this 12 times in a row your defense alone must have all kinds of holes, and your attacks just not very good at creating space (traditionally a big amount of finishes exclusively from set pieces too which don't come about "statistically", but because a team is set up in a way that makes it easy for defenders to get a foot into evry move, visibly -- AI does such bull too, sadly). The alternative to that would be your instructions triggering a bug, such as here, where borked man marking meant opposition wingers were gifted yards of acceleration space, never cought up with again, and would always make them arrive in boxes unmarked. And, as a consequence, opposition shot conversion going through the roof. Nothing to do with stats, all with second to second play.

 


The assertion that teams that dominate such simple stats win their matches are off either way. Go through Real Madrid's stats for instance this season, managed by  a "real" manager, plus having some of the more dominating squads in world football to boot. [And if somebody brings up Man City as a counter argument -- they still consistently miss the most Big Chances in the league at over 40 already, with Aguero and Jesus alone missing one of the really big chances per match each. Which is perfectly normal, as the forward outside of tap-ins and pens is rarely expected to score. It is the sheer volumes that make it for them, both the goals and the misses).

Part of the problem FM has traditionally had that teams could have easily amass ridiculous shot counts. If those would go down on average by 5-10 attempts, mainly the low percentage ones that at best have a 1 in 20 chance of resulting in a goal anyway, then things wouldn't look as severe. It's a thing of defensive engagement, largely. Additionally, AI managers still oft are the only managers that on the day not even try to play football, but sit half their sides behind the ball, make space difficult to find and with a bit of luck score one on a break or set piece. Not that you couldn't do that yourself. It's just rarely ever approached.  However, it's still unrealistic the way it's done, as it naturally makes for very one dimensional play -- and then stats, all itself. If sides would easily get shots off despite keeping half their side behind the ball, then that would be of bigger concern.

Edited by Svenc

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Here's how I look at it:

Yes, at certain times due to the combination of factors being calculated against you, defeat is the more likely outcome. Eg. when playing a much better team, you're more likely to lose no matter what. 

One thing to mention though is that we can generally conclude that most people who understand tactics will be at a better level tactically than the AI (at least given some of the wierd AI tactical choices we see). IMO the one thing that the AI can clearly be better at than users is man management/ motivating. The difference between the two is that with motivating, you simply have to pick the best option for the player and he'll perform at a better level (which I'm sure the AI with high motivating/ man management will know). That's it. Nothing really to think about. However, with tactics, there are a lot of different factors which increase the complexity of tactic making exponentially, to the point that coherent human minds will always be better than AI. And since the AI undoubtedly understands it's own mechanics and doesn't need the in game explanations, managers with high motivating will have a slight edge over human players due to their ability to simply pick the correct option.

So if you ask me, these sort of results either come about:

1) Through luck

2) Poor tactical choices

3) AI motivating players more effectively

or any combination of the three.

And to answer the question you asked, yes at certain times victory or defeat is the overwhelmingly likely option.

 

Edited by Cap'nRad

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11 hours ago, Pooreman1972 said:

Yes I appreciate that sometimes these things happen, even in real life. But this is beyond a joke.

Then it's more than likely your own management causing it. I would ask, based on the quoted bit, how often you think it happens IRL?

 

11 hours ago, Pooreman1972 said:

Blackpool played a 4-2-3-1 formation, pretty attacking in my mind, they were certainly not set up to defend and counter attack.

They can still be fairly defensive but prefer to use that formation. They certainly will have made some changes after the first goal and even more after the second. This is why your screenshot lacks context. For all we know, it was fairly equal (or you weren't as dominant) until the first goal. Then they switch to a more counter attacking setup, got the second and then parked the bus, allowing you to seem dominant as you had all the possession and shots after that.

 

11 hours ago, Pooreman1972 said:

IRL, teams that dominate games in this manner win matches. I mean I could understand it if I had 60% possession but only 5 shots say, I could work out that maybe I am doing something wrong, but 60% possession, 20 shots, 50% of which were on target... To not even score 1 goal, It just doesn't add up for me. 

Number of shots mean very little though and again needs context. Shot quality is important. So is how you set up and how they set up. Of course, so is your players' mental state.

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Maybe the odd thing that happened to the OP was that his tactics surprised the other teams with an initial effect, and once that was figured out the tactic produced its normal results due to poor construction, etc.

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19 hours ago, Cap'nRad said:

And to answer the question you asked, yes at certain times victory or defeat is the overwhelmingly likely option.


There is one scenario where it's really really tough to get something out of  a match, which is when you're playing a much much better side, in particular away [and don't resort to engine exploits anyway]. Had lots of threads in the past were players uploaded saves prior to a match they deemed "unwinnable". It was won every time by someone, generally. There were also experiments conducted what would happen if you would sabotage your team in the dressing room -- angering them, puzzling them, saying things that don't make much sense prior that specific match. Still winnable. :D

What may be important to stretch too is that match dynamics aren't set in stone. Even if you never do anything after kick-off, AI can drastically change stuff. They traditionally react to scorelines the most obvious. Whilst I think there's some dumb stuff in recent iteratations that didn't happen in the past (big concern!), AI prepare for situations where they are a goal down and but 15 minutes to go. They also prepare for situations in which they manage to take the lead. All of this can shift the odds some. I recorded a video in a prior edition to show such in action, meant to show the generally dynamics turned upside down by such -- Napoli being AI here.
 

It starts the game with 5 or 6 players visibly on defend duty, who don't even advance into the opposition third. Both full backs plus at least a centre midfielder simply sit back. Barcelona has it easy to defend this, but also upon winning the ball back, has an entire block of players to play around who simply stayed back. The second sequence is that same Napoli trying to score an equalizer late on, this time with every player on a reasonable aggressive duty (bar a central midfielder). Harder to defend, however upon intercepting also gifting Barcelona an easy route to the Napoli goal via a counter attack. If unlike AI you throw in the towel from kick-off, guess what's gonna happen?

Edited by Svenc

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