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Team Statistics in real life vs Team Statistic in FM

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2 ore fa, Miravlix ha scritto:

Just because we are more dedicated doesn't make our opinion different from everyone,

Yes it does! ;)

We have higher expectations and a higher level of knowledge (be it actual or perceived, educated or inferred) of FM compared to the Average Joe who'll play a couple of seasons with Real or United to win the treble year in and year out before moving on to another game.

We may not always be right, and indeed there are huge difference of opinions among us, as proven by countless threads in GD, but deep down, we all care a lot about FM and put time into finding out why the game isn't up to our ideal standards in this or that aspect.
Again, something that casuals don't do.

 

2 ore fa, Miravlix ha scritto:

just like in the real world you can be a Billionaire and believe in communism. It's a really weird opinion that you somehow think being a forum users make us unable to have the same spread of opinion as anyone else.

A billionaire can believe in communism, but it's a different belief compared to that of the struggling proletarian (1960s want its buzzwords back...)

We all have a very unique and favourable vantage point, that also skews our perception of "gamebreaking bugs" and "ME quirks". Stuff that we find outrageous can easily fly over the head of a less experienced or less dedicated (obsessive?) player.
In a way, we are very anal about stuff that won't even register to a more relaxed and casual player.

E.g. A hot prospect going for 3M is a great bargain to most players. Some of us will report it as a bug, many more will just point out how ineffective AI is on the transfers market, while the vast majority of the casuals will probably and gladly hoard 10 such players without batting an eyelid, even fancying themselves as outstanding wheeler-dealers...

 

2 ore fa, Miravlix ha scritto:

Being a forum user DOES NOT and WILL NEVER dictate what opinion you have. You might as well claim that a car taking a left turn in some street in the USA result in someone dying in Europa, I'm sure that is most likely true, but it's a nonsense correlation.

 

Ehm... what?

 

Being a forum user won't dictate our opinions, but will dictate the level of thought and dedication we put into said opinions, meaning those are less common than those of the casuals.

Which, BTW, doesn't mean we're more right, or "better", than the casuals. It's just a different mindset.

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Guest El Payaso
5 hours ago, shirajzl said:

If SI made this game harder to appease a few thousand (pulling numbers out of my a*s) players wanting to change, they'd alienate millions of others who are fine with the game in regards to difficulty and realism.  

How do you know that it isn't a vast majority who would be ok with the game being more difficult? Also shouldn't SI try and satisfy the needs of every customer that they have as they are all equals and only providing us with an arcade difficulty game is not satisfying the needs of those people here talking about lack of difficulty within the game. It's not everybody's football fantasy to pick any team and always be hugely successful if you don't sabotage your save somehow. And if the game is marketed as something like a realistic footballing simulation then it's false marketing. 

If the difficulty level would somewhat get higher then who knows, maybe people would grow up and actually learn to play the game (not too much demanded in my opinion) and it also might lure back some former FMers. I think SI should be thinking more of us too who have been loyal customers for more than ten years and buying the game every year. Currently they are not offering anything for me for example. 

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On 24.12.2017 at 07:10, Totalfootballfan said:

Man City in Real Life vs Man City in FM18

 

 

Right now in real life Man City is setting records in English Premier League…

Does that come as a big surprise for everyone? :)

I’m completely sure that any football fan even that is being far from a football expert expected something like that from Man City in this season… Why? Because it’s under control of Pep Guardiola that has unlimited amount of money to spend and he is going to re-create his invisible Barcelona.

Almost all betting agencies predicted Man City to finish the 1st place this season.

 

Here are Man City’s stats after 19 matches played in the league this season in real life:

Matches Played: 19

Points: 55

Goal Scored: 60

Conceded: 12

Goal Difference: +48

Average Possession: 65.9%

MC_RL_Table.png

MC_RL_Stats.png

 

 

 

Now let’s see how Man City under AI management performs in FM18 during the 1st season after 19 matches in the league and compare it with the real life performance.

In order to do that I picked the weakest team in the league Huddersfield, set the Assistant to handle the tactic, training and everything else in order not to make any impact on the results and then went On Holiday until 19 matches played in the league.

I repeated the testing 5 times in order to have such data sample that can be consider enough decent to be taken into consideration.

Game Saves for each test I uploaded on FTP:

EPL Test Season ( 1 ).fm

EPL Test Season ( 2 ).fm

EPL Test Season ( 3 ).fm

EPL Test Season ( 4 ).fm

EPL Test Season ( 5 ).fm

 

 

 

 

 

Test - 1   

Matches Played: 19

Points: 35

Goal Scored: 35

Conceded: 23

Goal Difference: +12

Average Possession: 52%

MC_S1_T.png

MC_S1_P.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

Test - 2

Matches Played: 19

Points: 32

Goal Scored: 38

Conceded: 26

Goal Difference: +12

Average Possession: 52%

MC_S2_T.png

MC_S2_P.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

Test - 3

Matches Played: 19

Points: 34

Goal Scored: 32

Conceded: 28

Goal Difference: +4

Average Possession: 53%

MC_S3_T.png

MC_S3_P.png

 

 

 

 

Test - 4

Matches Played: 19

Points: 34

Goal Scored: 33

Conceded: 16

Goal Difference: +17

Average Possession: 53%

MC_S4_T.png

MC_S4_P.png

 

 

Test - 5

Matches Played: 19

Points: 37

Goals Scored: 35

Conceded: 16

Goal Difference: +19

Average Possession: 53%

MC_S5_T.png

MC_S5_P.png

 

 

 

 

As you can see in FM18 Man City produces the results and play that are far away from what we see in in real:

[ Real Life ] Goals Difference +48 vs [ FM 18 ] Goal Difference +13

[ Real Life ] Goal Scored 60 vs [ FM 18 ] Goal Difference 34

[ Real Life ] Possession 65,9 %  vs  [ FM 18 ] Possession 53 %

 

I don’t know how about you guys but for me such difference is too much.

I would not mind if Southampton or West Brom show results and play in FM18 that were complete different from what we see in real life but I think the best team in the world such Man City deserve close attention and they should produce play and result that are very close with what we see in real life.  

 

 

I just finished my first season with Newcastle and noticed that Man City finished the 6th place even outside of CL, Crystal Palace had better stats in the league than Man City at the end of the season…

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Wow. Those Man City statistics from the game look woeful indeed. This is the aspect that the game has most struggled with, and apparently it hasn't improved. What a shame.

 

Incidentally, @Totalfootballfan, what is your take on the following. I have never had any problems beating Barcelona either home or away, in Football Manager. Can you guess why? Well, the simple reason is that my Liverpool team is bigger than stronger than Barcelona, and in FM, size and strength always beat skill, unless the big strong guy has no skills at all.

 

Indeed, the reason why Man City struggle in your test saves may well be because they have players such as David Silva and Sergio Aguero. I.e. small guys.

 

This problem is perfectly exemplified by Coutinho and Iniesta: in real life, it is very difficult to get the ball away from Coutinho, and almost impossible to get it away from Iniesta. But in FM, they both lose the ball all the time, simply because they are small and not very strong. There you go. This was one of the reasons I stopped buying the franchise - there are simply too many aspects where it fails.

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6 hours ago, El Payaso said:

I think SI should be thinking more of us too who have been loyal customers for more than ten years and buying the game every year. Currently they are not offering anything for me for example. 

I have been playing the game since 1996, every year without exception, and I don't want FM to be any more difficult. Do you see how hard that balance is for SI?

At the end of the day they'll cater to the larger group, whoever that is, because they're running a business. I've seen games cater to minority and completely ruining their financial potential.

We're playing a guessing game of "who is in majority", only SI know the answers and they adjust their long term strategy accordingly.

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39 minuti fa, shirajzl ha scritto:

We're playing a guessing game of "who is in majority"

I doubt there's much of a guessing game though... ;)

Total copeis sold - Steam users with a fair amount of playing hours - active forum members from Nov 2016 (with, say, at least 10-20 posts) = casuals

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Guest El Payaso
2 hours ago, shirajzl said:

I have been playing the game since 1996, every year without exception, and I don't want FM to be any more difficult. Do you see how hard that balance is for SI?

Well I think that is the reason why I will step out of FM (and from this community when they hopefully delete this account) now and you probably will continue buying it in the future too and enjoy it. For me there is nothing in offer and really hasn't been for years. 

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5 hours ago, shirajzl said:

I have been playing the game since 1996, every year without exception, and I don't want FM to be any more difficult. Do you see how hard that balance is for SI?

At the end of the day they'll cater to the larger group, whoever that is, because they're running a business. I've seen games cater to minority and completely ruining their financial potential.

We're playing a guessing game of "who is in majority", only SI know the answers and they adjust their long term strategy accordingly.

Regardless of any level of difficulty, top managers and clubs with top players in the game should perform near to their potential. Yes or no?

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6 hours ago, edk77 said:

Regardless of any level of difficulty, top managers and clubs with top players in the game should perform near to their potential. Yes or no?

Yes, of course. The real question, though, is how much people care if they don't perform. Man City finishing 6th in the first season doesn't seem to be a detriment to enjoyment of most people outside of forums microcosm.

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13 hours ago, shirajzl said:

We're playing a guessing game of "who is in majority", only SI know the answers and they adjust their long term strategy accordingly

SI probably collect information anonymously from your game anyway to see what modes people enjoy, how long they play per session, etc. And I am fairly certain they have a pretty strong idea where they want to bring the game. I doubt they are going to make it as hard as @Barside and I want it to be. They are always looking at trying to improve the engine, so as long as there are people out there willing to exploit the game and expose its shortcomings, it can only be good for the long term development of the game cos it will keep the devs on their toes.

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There's two sides to the AI management coin, though there are overlaps.

1) Believability. What this thread in parts collects is evidence that AI manager struggle for basics, including replicating playing styles they are known for in real football. This relates to match engine, research and AI limitations. This doesn't necessarily affect difficulty at all unless there was a heavy bias towards any style. So far you could sit top of the tables with a pass completion of 65% average, as well as the opposite, which is somewhat encouraging.

2) Competition. This does. It's about how AI managers perform. This relates to the same as above, not only from the AI's end, as every player who (deliberately/by accident) either exploits ME holes or lack of AI reactivity could testify. I'd argue it's become fairly easy to outperform most AI (most do without realizing). In parts it is because so much spoon-feeding has been introduced that it's hard to do anything massively iffy (and it's obvious all that spoon-feeding is only assessed by the human player). In parts though as some AI decision making either deliberately or do tue an overhaul has declined from ca. FM13, or else there wasn't that many AI playing top heavy formations with every single player encouraged box-side, amongst a few other things. AI playing narrow and never advancing a wide player has been a constant for long. All fairly common sense stuff, and neither believable match management outside of specific scenarios nor anything. Both would also show deep red blinking zones on the tactics pitch for any player by now.

This was the vision of the game ca. 1992. This is how it was presented, emphasizing believability and some competition as key components of the game. That's what I'm personally judging the game by. I'd imagine most players would -- an be it for judging the "believability" of the matches they compete in, which inevitably mostly involve AI competition too.  FM's never been the most difficult game, but some kind of believability is key. 

What either way may deserve challenging is articles such as this.

Edited by Svenc

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Hi,

I think that this thread require extra attention by SI.

While I agree that the top dogs (either players or clubs) are performing worse than irl which must be addressed in any way - either selecting different difficulties whenever a game is created, or boosting the top dogs ( I remember that FM16 Pep's Bayern had also 50-55% possession every game but was one of the hardest opponents to beat in FM due to dynamic of tactic changing), I do also think that the way it is measured possession needs to be changed because just boosting the top dogs won't solve the unrealistic low possession for clubs managed by Pep, Pocche and others which defend with ball at feet. Since some irl players/staff which are reflected in db are playing this game I wonder their opinion on having such low numbers, since this game is a football simulator - why do the "possession is calculated differently in FM" excuse should stand? It's so hard to split possession by the number of passes completed and stop the chess clock whenever the ball is out? I hardly imagine. Or, I would gladly work on the Steam's workshop on a mod that calculates possession similar to Opta, if would be possible to do it.

I may went on a rant here, but I have one question - If I set my goalkeeper to play long balls to the other goalkeeper the whole game similar to a ping-pong battle, the time the ball travels before reaching the other GK (or player) is counted as my possession, right? So if I play a direct approach on my Celtic side with a passing lenght of 5x versus Barcelona, which plays a short passing, possession-based approach with passing lenght is 1x, a Celtic pass would value 5x higher on the possession stat than a Barcelona pass, even that Celtic pass wouldn't be received by other Celtic player? Disappointing.

There are some FM players which played since CM (including myself) which became tactics-oriented and less trophy hunters (because they would come if the tactics work properly), therefore we seem to be challenged only by creating proper tactics which generate several statistics which imply if our tactics work or not, but if the stats aren't properly reflected, who would further bother? We simulate a head coach's career on a football simulator, yet the simulation can't be compared with irl data. Pretty subjective, but I agree with others saying that in today's era, metrics are sometimes more important than the result itself:

Quote

Possession statistics are commonplace in football broadcasting and reporting. They are regularly used to demonstrate one team's superiority over another, to confirm dominance or otherwise when the scoreboard remains deadlocked.

And lets face it, we all do remember the Celtic's miracle by which they won with 11% possession versus Barcelona.

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The "simulator" term is an albatross around the game's neck.  It's used to explain away the game's little foibles, and also to criticise it.  Expecting the game to perform 1:1 with real life is a fool's errand.  Hell, expecting it to come anywhere close to an outcome that is now coming up to 9 months removed from the game's starting point is similarly foolish.  It's always going to be an approximation, rather than a true simulation when you're referring to trying to mirror real life.

I've never quite seen the need to hold the game to those standards.  It's especially unfair to take a record-breaking side (as in, performing above the expectations that anyone could reasonably have) and compare it to how the game performs.  It's not as if the match engine is the only variable here, there's also the absolutely enormous difference caused by the researchers.  On 1st July 2017 (or whenever you start the game), FM is still not particularly realistic - it is instead an interpretation of thousands of researchers, with an overarching interpretation of football moulded into what has to be a fairly static framework in the ME.  For every single time you press continue, that starting difference only gets bigger.  Does anyone honestly expect that FM should reliably have predicted Manchester City going on a record-breaking winning run and had them on the same (or similar to be generous) points totals as they've got in real life?  Honestly?  I can kind of get some complaining about seeing City vastly underachieve, but again that's based on real world knowledge that's largely irrelevant for comparison.

So what's the solution?  The game is unlikely to ever stack up if you want to try and compare it to real life.  I completely understand people scoffing at it, but I'd recommend just treating it as a completely separate entity, another universe which has no frame of reference to real life.  I know that's not going to be good enough for some people, but it doesn't change the fact that the game is always going to struggle to live up to the standards you're trying to apply to it.

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4 hours ago, Kelvinu said:

Possession statistics are commonplace in football broadcasting and reporting. They are regularly used to demonstrate one team's superiority over another, to confirm dominance or otherwise when the scoreboard remains deadlocked.

At the risk of draggint his OT: That quote is from an Opta Blog ca. 2012. Since then, they know a bit better. https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2013/feb/24/football-numbers-game-gary-neville
 

Quote

Which makes it puzzling that broadcasters continue to focus on crude possession and player distance stats, even when they are as illuminating as an energy-saving light bulb.

[...]

So why don't broadcasters use data that clubs have long since dipped into? Blake Wooster from Prozone, which provides match data to Canal Plus and Al-Jazeera, believes is it about understanding audiences. "I sometimes make the distinction between what is interesting and what is important," he says. "Professional footballers and gamblers are interested in the key performance indicators that contribute to winning – viewers perhaps less so."



It's a bit off-topic. But traditionally it's pretty easy to create tactics in FM that a) dominate possession stats to hella back. And b) push opposition into their half all match long (if they aren't defending deep either way, further contributing to that possession advantage). Dominating possession itself is a completely fallacy, doubly so in-game, as at its very worst, shots will go off, but exclusively poor ones, as no space is created whatsoever. I was top of the EPL in this game with the worst pass completion / possession in the league, Leicester style. I agree with you on the game lacking reliable metrics, by the way. :D Actually, at its worst, the feedback is terribly misleading -- and even relatively simple stats are completely missing (counter attacks/breaks conceded per side in the match -- shots from actually open play vs set piece scenarios, also highly relevant in-game as outside of set piece settings, all the tactical instructions relate to open play).

Edited by Svenc

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