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Formula for Transfer Value of a Superstar?

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Do you use any simple math formula to evaluate the maximum price of a superstar?   In sports business, some quantitative models are used, usually involving some multiplier over time in years...

For example, if I want to make a transer offer for Neymar, Messi or Cristiano, how much is the maximum I should pay (given he's not old yet...), including multi-installment payments, etc.

Any rules of thumb? Thanks

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How much do they want for him?  How much are you willing to pay?  Choose somewhere in the middle.

There really isn't a way to math-it-up.

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An important elelement missing here is "are the other club prepared to sell him". The players you mention are at clubs that have no interest in selling, which means any offer you make to tempt them will have to be inflated.

As for a maximum you should pay, any offer you make may not be accepted until you hit their buy-out clause. Whether your board are prepared to pay €250m for one player is another matter...

Edited by withnail316

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Except you can easily get players for under their value with work, and similarly there are players you'll have to pay "over the odds" for.  There is no function that's going to apply to all players.  There isn't in real life, and there certainly isn't in FM.

Edited by forameuss

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3 hours ago, fmfan74 said:

Yes there is math for all players, and there stats weighed up.  Here is a website for the realistic side of the game which FM do a great job of  matching it.  http://www.transfermarkt.com/

 

cheers

Transfermarkt is a cracking site, but it doesn't answer the OP's question. Player valuation is irrelevant when trying to sign players other clubs don't want to sell because you'll have to pay way over that valuation anyway.

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There is no formula.  Look at Paul Pogba, just signed for man utd at 100 mill.  Is he worth it, at this stage no, potentially down the future yes.  In football it's not like baseball where the price is heavily weighed up with stats.  In football the price varies from many non statistical factors.  Ronaldo is a great player but also how about the marketing side of his life.  A player of that stature can bring in your team millions from just world wide shirt sales and other business agreements.

 

 

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12 hours ago, fmfan74 said:

Look at Paul Pogba, just signed for man utd at 100 mill.  Is he worth it, at this stage no, potentially down the future yes.

What does that even mean? They didn't buy him to make back the 100m in three months. They made an investment, and the potential for that investment to turn out positive is still very much there. He's playing in the first team, and his presence has enhanced the marketing profile of the club.

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Enhanced the marketing side of the club yes.  Just like i said previously.   Maybe it wasn't a purchase to buy him for his playing ability but for the marketing side of it.  But then again the marketing side of it is affected by his performance on the pitch.  His no messi yet, but like you said  that all depends on hope.  The more i'm watching football these days the more i'm seeing the marketing side just blow the price out of proportion because A) Fernando Torres looks hot for women, B)David Beckham had a spice girl & D)Ronaldo's ego is becoming so big it's got the scientists at oxford baffled if it's a new star  or a super nova going to pop.

I can imagine George Best in today's world, his career would have lasted shorter than what it was.

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On 9/25/2016 at 03:06, fmfan74 said:

  A player of that stature can bring in your team millions from just world wide shirt sales and other business agreements.

 

 

Don't believe the "shirt sales" lie. The extra shirt income United make from the Pogba transfer, would be enough to pay his wages for about a day.

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i have followed the old Champ Manager rule where I will offer double the players value. In the old DB's for Champ and FM, you would find that you could only buy a top class player if you offered double their value. Right or wrong I go with the same now. Wages matter to me more than any upfront fee.

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2 hours ago, fmfan74 said:

You my friend need to go back to school and learn maths.  Read this http://www.totalsportek.com/football/clubs-with-most-shirt-sales/

Happy reading.

So Man United 2.8 million shirts. Cool. It means, at a price of $65 per shirt, that the gross income is around 180 million.

You know how much of that money Manchester United see? Basically zero. You know how much of that money Adidas see? Around 180 million (before we remove production and other costs). And how many people buy a United shirt because they bought Pogba? A lot of people probably bought a shirt with Pogbas name, but how many of those wouldn't have bought another shirt anyway?

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2 hours ago, Matshit said:

So Man United 2.8 million shirts. Cool. It means, at a price of $65 per shirt, that the gross income is around 180 million.

You know how much of that money Manchester United see? Basically zero. You know how much of that money Adidas see? Around 180 million (before we remove production and other costs). And how many people buy a United shirt because they bought Pogba? A lot of people probably bought a shirt with Pogbas name, but how many of those wouldn't have bought another shirt anyway?

Dude you are talking out of your ass. You are purely speculating based on personal bias. It's totally useless.

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18 minutes ago, Cannes said:

Dude you are talking out of your ass. You are purely speculating based on personal bias. It's totally useless.

He's not though, the majority of money will go to the kit supplier. That's why they're willing to pay so much money for the sponsorship deal in the first place.

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Yes probably right about the money going to the supplier, but don't forget the club will get something out of it and the player as well.  All dependant on what the contract is.  Licensing is another issue, just because Adidas paid man utd for sponsorship doesn't really mean they have 100% full rights to all profits for shirts being sold.  What some people forget is that there is a difference between a shirt label and a shirt  with a sponsor on it and the players name.  2 different things.  Adidas paid man utd just to have their sports name on the shirt.   

There is no way in the world man utd will be selling shirts without getting a slice of the pie.  

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The normal percentage is around 10-15% of the profit (not on the sales price, but the profit). Which is a pretty tiny sum per shirt.

There has also been speculation that Man Utd takes an even smaller cut, down to basically zero, which is the reason Adidas paid so much to begin with. 

And the 75 million they get now per year, is the maximum they can get for the next 10 years, with potential for dropping down with bad results. So, there is no way United can increase their profit from shirt sales, either directly or indirectly in the next 10 years.

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Have a search for a Jake Cohen on Twitter. He gives a very good insight into transfer dealings/monies sponsorship etc. Re the Pogba shirt sales - I do believe that a fair proportion of each sale goes to adidas rather then United based on the contract between united and Adidas. It's a very good read. 

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