llama3 Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 I would recommend those who are interested to read the book Soccernomics from Simon Kuper - interesting chapter on the correlation between transfer spend and success vs wages and success. Also good part on the value of positions and their comparative effect on a team's points total. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coulthard's Jaw Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 That book is called "Why England Always Lose" in the UK. It's pretty good, although I think the problem with it's approach is that if you data mine enough you are eventually going to find some stats that back up the underlying argument you want to make. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajw10 Posted September 3, 2015 Author Share Posted September 3, 2015 Our midfield dynamics would change completely with Vidal, I would image. Cazorla would have to become the holding mid, similar to Pirlo, while Vidal does the box-to-box job.I don't think we ever had a chance to compete against Bayern Munich for Vidal anyway. We've already tried putting Ramsey alongside Cazorla and it didn't work. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kawee Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 We've already tried putting Ramsey alongside Cazorla and it didn't work. Isn't Ramsey closer to Yaya Toure than Vidal? I guess it's not a coincidence either that Juventus, without a defensive specialist in midfield, went with 3 central midfielders and Pirlo. Even having lost Vidal, they've added Khedira. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJ234 Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Spot on. Honestly not even remotely worried about our transfer window. Upgraded Goalkeeper. Got a strong squad. It's good enough to challenge. Let's just see what happens rather than getting worked up about what we don't know. I am worried because of the lack of holding mid but it is hardly the disaster some are suggesting Our midfield dynamics would change completely with Vidal, I would image. Cazorla would have to become the holding mid, similar to Pirlo, while Vidal does the box-to-box job.I don't think we ever had a chance to compete against Bayern Munich for Vidal anyway. It would work about as well as Ramsey Cazorla tbh I would recommend those who are interested to read the book Soccernomics from Simon Kuper - interesting chapter on the correlation between transfer spend and success vs wages and success. Also good part on the value of positions and their comparative effect on a team's points total. Was he suggesting there is a greater link between wages spent and league finish than transfer spend? Isn't Ramsey closer to Yaya Toure than Vidal?I guess it's not a coincidence either that Juventus, without a defensive specialist in midfield, went with 3 central midfielders and Pirlo. Even having lost Vidal, they've added Khedira. True but they no longer have Pirlo. I don't think Ramsey isn't particularly close to Toure or Vidal. The former is not nearly as hard working nor athletic but is quite a bit better on the ball and is more of a playmaker. The latter is nearer but is less of a runner I would say than Ramsey more of a ball winner Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
llama3 Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Was he suggesting there is a greater link between wages spent and league finish than transfer spend? He did. Poor correlation between transfer spend and success. Strong correlation between wage spend and league finish. Goalkeepers have a far greater influence over points total than strikers. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Razzler Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Just pay your players more and *bang* you just won the title! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJ234 Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 He did. Poor correlation between transfer spend and success. Strong correlation between wage spend and league finish. Goalkeepers have a far greater influence over points total than strikers. Surprising how little people know about this correlation. In the Premier League nearly every season's top 4 is the four who spend the most on wages. It's because your wage bill is a better sign of the quality of your squad than how much you've spent on it Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArsenalFan7 Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 On a most injured Prem XI of 21st century Diaby tops the XI with 2156 days out. Second highest is Ledley King with 1318 days out, yikes. We also have Walcott & Rosicky in the same lineup. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajw10 Posted September 3, 2015 Author Share Posted September 3, 2015 Welbeck is having knee surgery then. We are a laughable club Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carmi88 Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Welbeck has had surgery on his knee http://www.arsenal.com/news/news-archive/20150903/danny-welbeck-undergoes-knee-surgery Danny is now expected to be out for a period of months and everyone at Arsenal wishes him well.Read more at http://www.arsenal.com/news/news-archive/20150903/danny-welbeck-undergoes-knee-surgery#u381ZewWmfoeSQOb.99 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
H.O.V.I Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Convenient that they announce this two days after the window closed. This club. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJ234 Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Hardly a surprise that this has happened nor that they announce it after the window. It's an attempt to manage the PR Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajw10 Posted September 3, 2015 Author Share Posted September 3, 2015 It's more the fact that it's taken the club so long to operate. He's already been out for 5 months Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coulthard's Jaw Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 This Welbeck stuff is pathetic. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJ234 Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 It's more the fact that it's taken the club so long to operate. He's already been out for 5 months Not sure any of us can argue with it one way or the other unless you have medical expertise and knowledge of the injury. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glenn Wakeford Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Not sure any of us can argue with it one way or the other unless you have medical expertise and knowledge of the injury. No, it's much more appropriate to throw a mini strop and act like the club are deliberately hurting players. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
H.O.V.I Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Whatever the excuses are it just continues to show that something is just not right with this club in one way or another. If it's not one thing it's something else. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajw10 Posted September 3, 2015 Author Share Posted September 3, 2015 No, it's much more appropriate to throw a mini strop and act like the club are deliberately hurting players. Yeah you're right, the club does have a great recent history of looking after players. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulHartman71 Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 wait so they knew Welbeck would be out for months still and still didn't get another striker in? even on loan? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajw10 Posted September 3, 2015 Author Share Posted September 3, 2015 wait so they knew Welbeck would be out for months still and still didn't get another striker in? even on loan? We tried to get that terrible Russian striker in on loan Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coulthard's Jaw Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 wait so they knew Welbeck would be out for months still and still didn't get another striker in? even on loan? Everyone was acting all smug and dismissive when I floated the idea a few pages back, but Gomis for £7m would have been a triffic little deal. Instead the club has decided that our centre forward options are Giroud and errr Walcott and... no one else. We've even let Akpom go out on loan. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajw10 Posted September 3, 2015 Author Share Posted September 3, 2015 We were dismissive because it was a bad idea. We currently have 4 strikers. Giroud and Welbeck are good if not very good options there but they just aren't elite. Theo is not a striker. Alexis could be the elite one imo but we don't have cover for him on the wings. Welbeck being out is a big blow because we're now light there. However he will obviously be back so signing Gomis means that we will have yet another striker who is good but not elite. Also, Gomis is worse than Giroud and Welbeck. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulHartman71 Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Joel Campbell probably still wont see any minutes Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJ234 Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 We tried to get that terrible Russian striker in on loan Well we can't really be expected to get much to counteract an injury to a player Everyone was acting all smug and dismissive when I floated the idea a few pages back' date=' but Gomis for £7m would have been a triffic little deal. Instead the club has decided that our centre forward options are Giroud and errr Walcott and... no one else. We've even let Akpom go out on loan.[/quote']Yeah no it still wouldn't have been. Alexis is a CF option and Akpom going on loan is less of a worry than Sanogo Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajw10 Posted September 3, 2015 Author Share Posted September 3, 2015 Joel Campbell probably still wont see any minutes Nor should he. Our squad is so weak atm. We have two players in Campbell and Flamini who Wenger was desperate to get rid of. We have Giroud who clearly doesn't have Wenger's full backing. No one really knows what state Arteta is in. We are a couple of injuries away from us being in a full blown crisis. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ayub95 Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Sanogo isn't getting games at Ajax, might as well recall as surely he'll play a lot more here with the injury situation and certain injury prone players who aren't reliable. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJ234 Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Nor should he.Our squad is so weak atm. We have two players in Campbell and Flamini who Wenger was desperate to get rid of. We have Giroud who clearly doesn't have Wenger's full backing. No one really knows what state Arteta is in. We are a couple of injuries away from us being in a full blown crisis. Most teams are a couple of injuries away from a full crisis tbf. City lose Toure and one of Aguero/Silva and they're struggling. Chelsea- Costa and Hazard. Manchester United- Mata and Depay Depends who we lose. Arteta is quite interesting as he has looked good when he has come on. I think it is possible that Wenger sees him as the starter for the season Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajw10 Posted September 3, 2015 Author Share Posted September 3, 2015 Most teams are a couple of injuries away from a full crisis tbf. City lose Toure and one of Aguero/Silva and they're struggling. Chelsea- Costa and Hazard. Manchester United- Mata and Depay Agreed, but we're in a crisis if we lose someone like Theo Walcott or even Coquelin. Players who really shouldn't be that important Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coulthard's Jaw Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 The fact other clubs have behaved really strangely in the transfer market isn't an excuse for us to do the same. So frustrating as with a bit of extra investment we'd have one of the strongest squads around. So dumb. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulHartman71 Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Apparently in a press conference last Thursday Wenger claimed Welbeck was progressing well and that he would be back after the international break. Yet in their article that they've just released on Welbeck they said that the decision for Welbeck to undergo surgery was also made last week. This club ffs Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJ234 Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Agreed, but we're in a crisis if we lose someone like Theo Walcott or even Coquelin. Players who really shouldn't be that important I accept your point more on DM than Walcott The fact other clubs have behaved really strangely in the transfer market isn't an excuse for us to do the same. So frustrating as with a bit of extra investment we'd have one of the strongest squads around. So dumb. We already have a very strong squad. It wouldn't be any stronger with us signing Gomis ffs Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kawee Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 We already have a very strong squad. It wouldn't be any stronger with us signing Gomis ffs I guess the frustration is that because we're not a squad filled with elites who start every game, we should at least build a squad that is deep so that we don't face the same problem as before. So basically a squad that is based more on rotation and depth. The whole concept kind of ignore the fact that Wenger has usually built his squad too small, rather than too big. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
G-Man11 Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Surprising how little people know about this correlation. In the Premier League nearly every season's top 4 is the four who spend the most on wages. It's because your wage bill is a better sign of the quality of your squad than how much you've spent on it QPR presumably being the odd anomaly? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJ234 Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 I guess the frustration is that because we're not a squad filled with elites who start every game, we should at least build a squad that is deep so that we don't face the same problem as before. So basically a squad that is based more on rotation and depth. The whole concept kind of ignore the fact that Wenger has usually built his squad too small, rather than too big. You don't need a big squad to win the league. Generally smaller squads are best QPR presumably being the odd anomaly? A rather large one yes Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astafjevs Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 It's more the fact that it's taken the club so long to operate. He's already been out for 5 months It's a meniscus injury, so what they've tried to do is manage it conservatively - time away from sport, then a slow progression back to activity. It made sense given that he had an entire summer to get the rehab right. They've clearly tried, at some point recently, to step up his return to full sport, but he's broken down. Probably a return of old symptoms, which means conservative management has failed. Now they have to repair it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kawee Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 You don't need a big squad to win the league. Generally smaller squads are best That's usually true because the best squad usually has many elite players who are capable of playing +30 games consistently well. We don't. We have a squad of players who hasve proven themselves to blow hot and cold throughout the season. Giroud has done it for 3 years. Sanchez had his poor form period last year. It'd be pretty sad if we have to rely on Flamini for long periods of time, or if Giroud is having his usual poor period, but we have no one to rotate him out, so we have to overplay him, again. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJ234 Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 That's usually true because the best squad usually has many elite players who are capable of playing +30 games consistently well.We don't. We have a squad of players who hasve proven themselves to blow hot and cold throughout the season. Giroud has done it for 3 years. Sanchez had his poor form period last year. It'd be pretty sad if we have to rely on Flamini for long periods of time, or if Giroud is having his usual poor period, but we have no one to rotate him out, so we have to overplay him, again. Well we already have more depth. Not sure moving players who aren't top class out for players who also aren't is going to improve us particularly. Also would love to know the many elite players for Chelsea and City who did play well for 30+ games in their recent title successes Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ayub95 Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 How would Gomis improve us if he sits on the bench for 70 minutes a game? That's the important question. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulHartman71 Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Chelsea have at least one guy well known for playing well all season long... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ReggaeBwoy Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Well we already have more depth. Not sure moving players who aren't top class out for players who also aren't is going to improve us particularly. Also would love to know the many elite players for Chelsea and City who did play well for 30+ games in their recent title successes Toure, Zabaleta, Aguero (when fit), Costa (when fit), Kompany, Hazard, Terry. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kawee Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 We have 3 players in the most injured player of the 21st century: http://www.skysports.com/football/news/11662/9977106/premier-league-most-injured-xi-theo-walcott-tomas-rosicky-and-abou-diaby-feature Wilshere hasn't spent enough time in the first team. If he stays with us, by the time he retires, he might find a place in that lineup as well. Toure, Zabaleta, Aguero (when fit), Costa (when fit), Kompany, Hazard, Terry. I think last year Chelsea's defended well as a team very consistently, which was how they picked up some vital points later in the season. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulHartman71 Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 of course Wilshere will make that team by the time he retires, as long as he doesn't retire early through being injured so much. Gibbs will probably make the cut too, surprised he didn't already. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gary_Parker Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 We have 3 players in the most injured player of the 21st century:http://www.skysports.com/football/news/11662/9977106/premier-league-most-injured-xi-theo-walcott-tomas-rosicky-and-abou-diaby-feature Diaby had 5.9 years on the treatment table. He's had more days recovering from injury than i've had owning a house. Poor guy. Such a shame his career never took off. Always looked a great player for the 30 or so minutes he lasted in a game. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kawee Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 of course Wilshere will make that team by the time he retires, as long as he doesn't retire early through being injured so much. Gibbs will probably make the cut too, surprised he didn't already. Do you not believe that with all the changes, our fitness will get better? Especially in a season where we haven't added anyone, if we're going to rely on stability to compete, we need our fitness to improve. There is no stability if players take turn getting injured. I don't think we've lost anyone since the pre-season have we? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJ234 Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 Toure, Zabaleta, Aguero (when fit), Costa (when fit), Kompany, Hazard, Terry. When fit rules them out as they are unlikely to manage 30+ games. Kompany wasn't that good when they won the league and Silva? If you can only produce three per team not sure it is a stretch to suggest we could match that Do you not believe that with all the changes, our fitness will get better? Especially in a season where we haven't added anyone, if we're going to rely on stability to compete, we need our fitness to improve. There is no stability if players take turn getting injured. I don't think we've lost anyone since the pre-season have we? I think our fitness is probably better though probably not hard. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ayub95 Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 The recovery time from injuries has definitely improved. Very few setbacks and players returning earlier than expected. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJ234 Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 We didn't lose many at the back end of last season either. Which given Forsyth wasn't meant to have an impact till later on such is his method of training it's possible we are seeing real improvements Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajw10 Posted September 6, 2015 Author Share Posted September 6, 2015 Hodgson reckons Welbeck is out for 6 months. Arsenal say three. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ayub95 Posted September 6, 2015 Share Posted September 6, 2015 Ridiculous situation. Don't know how it's gone this badly. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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