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Penalty Conversion Rate Issue - Again!

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Seriously, SI, how did you guys manage to mess with this again :thdn: Just like FM14, it's the last patch where penalty conversion rate all of a sudden skyrockets to 90(+)%

Yet again, I started seeing penalty shoot-outs that end 11-10, 14-13, etc. Why, why, why...

And I know that I will hear the same story again, yes I know, this is a small part of ME, we can live with this, and trying to fix it could have knock on effects...

But after 1 year of waiting, still this? I love the rest of the ME, but this is rather disappointing :(

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Seriously, SI, how did you guys manage to mess with this again :thdn: Just like FM14, it's the last patch where penalty conversion rate all of a sudden skyrockets to 90(+)%

Yet again, I started seeing penalty shoot-outs that end 11-10, 14-13, etc. Why, why, why...

And I know that I will hear the same story again, yes I know, this is a small part of ME, we can live with this, and trying to fix it could have knock on effects...

But after 1 year of waiting, still this? I love the rest of the ME, but this is rather disappointing :(

Since the patch? I rarely saw a penalty missed well before the patch.

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Since the patch? I rarely saw a penalty missed well before the patch.

My best penalty taker missed 5 in 7 last season (on the old patch). Good times.

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Since the patch? I rarely saw a penalty missed well before the patch.

I count stats like this in the game all the time. It was in the mid 80ies in 15.2.1, which is still a little higher than RL, but difference between 92% and 85% is actually huge. With 92%, a lot of penalty shoot-out's will go beyond 5-5. Really annoying. Takes all the fun away from cup matches.

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I haven't had a shoot out go beyond 5 shots each in over 500 hours of play. Nothing has been changed between updates.

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I had two penalty shootouts since the last patch, one ended 9-8, the other 5-3, can't really say it's as bad as you're making it out to be.

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Yeh, definitely not in my experience. Small sample size, but penalties seemed to be more successful before the patch in my save.

Much too small sample size is the issue.

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I count stats like this in the game all the time.

Why bother? Just play the game and enjoy it. Too many people are overly obsessed with making sure every stat in the game mirrors real life. It's pointless.

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Why bother? Just play the game and enjoy it. Too many people are overly obsessed with making sure every stat in the game mirrors real life. It's pointless.

Why bother? Because it is a part of the ME, which is the most important part of FM for me. It is like seeing a bug. When I see one, I start keeping an eye on it, to see if it will happen again. With penalties, it wasn't even in my mind when I started playing 15.3, because I knew it was fixed before. Then after witnessing 8-10 penalties all being scored in my matches, it looked suspicious and that's how I found out.

It is not pointless. Hypothetically, what if, when I counted, I would find out that every penalty in the game was converted, so 100% rate? Then what is the point of watching that animation?

I did extensive search on penalties last year when this discussion about 14.3 was ongoing. Conversion rate IRL was a little lower than 80%. If you calculate, there is only around 8% of chance of all 10 penalties being scored during a shootout.

But if the conversion rate is 92%, like it is now (in FM14 it was so much worse), chance of all 10 penalties being scored increases to 43%. That is a big difference.

It is not making the game unplayable, but my point was, how annoying it is to see some bugs or statistical anomalies coming back after being fixed, over and over again. 4 months of work/patching, and back to where you were last year. Same with the GK's going out of bounds after catching a ball - that one started happening again (the bug itself doesn't bother me much, but the fact that it came back).

Before releasing a patch, SI is doing a QC I am sure, but part of that should be having a long checklist of past bugs at least, and they need to make sure none of them are happening any more.

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I haven't had a shoot out go beyond 5 shots each in over 500 hours of play. Nothing has been changed between updates.

Just to re-iterate this, approaching 650 and I've seen one shoot out go beyond 5, (finish at 7-6). I'd actually argue there should have been a few more.

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I'm over 1000 hours into this year's game, and I've not seen a single shoot out go beyond five yet.

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Why do you count your hours pre 15.3? It was fine before that. Last patch caused this, just like 14.3 did last year.

With 15.3, just do a test run and check out AI vs. AI cup matches. You will see many of them going beyond 5.

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I beat Everton 16-15 in this patch. Funniest thing was John Stones ran up to the ball, jogged back a few steps, did a bit of a twirl whilst my goalkeeper dived and Stones hit the post. Didn't know if I was watching football or Strictly Come Dancing!

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Why do you count your hours pre 15.3? It was fine before that. Last patch caused this, just like 14.3 did last year.

With 15.3, just do a test run and check out AI vs. AI cup matches. You will see many of them going beyond 5.

The point is that no changes were made in the ME in the last update to affect penalties in any way. Therefore, confirming experiences over the entirety of your FM15 game time is valid. I can't be more clear on this: no changes to taking of penalties or saving of them at all in ME1555.

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The point is that no changes were made in the ME in the last update to affect penalties in any way. Therefore, confirming experiences over the entirety of your FM15 game time is valid. I can't be more clear on this: no changes to taking of penalties or saving of them at all in ME1555.

Somebody from SI can confirm this, but last year when I was doing extensive testing, I've been told that they can't look at this issue because there is not enough time left before the last patch, AND if they make a change on finishing, it will affect the rest of the ME. So, as far as I know, if any change regarding finishing, shot accuracy, etc. was done in the ME, it applies to penalties too. Penalties is not a separate module in the code, or at least that's what I've been told.

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Somebody from SI can confirm this, but last year when I was doing extensive testing, I've been told that they can't look at this issue because there is not enough time left before the last patch, AND if they make a change on finishing, it will affect the rest of the ME. So, as far as I know, if any change regarding finishing, shot accuracy, etc. was done in the ME, it applies to penalties too. Penalties is not a separate module in the code, or at least that's what I've been told.

There is no reason to think that changes to finishing in one on one situations would change how penalties are in the game. If they've been told that there were no changes to penalties, then I'd be inclined to trust that.

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There is no reason to think that changes to finishing in one on one situations would change how penalties are in the game. If they've been told that there were no changes to penalties, then I'd be inclined to trust that.

Even when they have told you exactly the opposite a year ago? Nice.

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Mine's been fine throughout my entire FM15 playing time (700+ hours), roughly the conversion rate I'd expect and nowhere near the terrible experience with penalties in FM14.

If, as RTHerringbone says, no changes to penalties have been made then I think we can safely say it's all happening in your head. You seem to be using a small sample size too.

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Even when they have told you exactly the opposite a year ago? Nice.

A quote of that would be interesting. That said, it is a different match engine.

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Ive seen penalties saved, missed high missed wide and hitting the post already in this patch.. I thought it may have been an issue pre patch where I saw 30 consecutive penalties scored during my San marino save, but as no changes have been made to them then this was obviously a coincidence.

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I just saw another penalty shoot-out that ended 20-19!

I must be playing a different game. I did not notice this happening before latest patch, because in my matches I was already seeing penalties being missed every once in a while.

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I just saw another penalty shoot-out that ended 20-19!

I must be playing a different game. I did not notice this happening before latest patch, because in my matches I was already seeing penalties being missed every once in a while.

It's well worth keeping an eye on. Since you mentioned it, I've scored all of my penalties (albeit it only six!)

Your point in post #16 is a very valid one. I'm not sure how much separation there is between open play and closed play (if that's what a PK is regarded as!) finishing in the ME. A lot of work went into open play finishing, and I guess it is not unfeasible that it would affect penalties if there is no separation between the way in which finishing is coded generally. Maybe one of the SI guys will confirm in the week how their soak tests for PK conversion look.

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It's well worth keeping an eye on. Since you mentioned it, I've scored all of my penalties (albeit it only six!)

Your point in post #16 is a very valid one. I'm not sure how much separation there is between open play and closed play (if that's what a PK is regarded as!) finishing in the ME. A lot of work went into open play finishing, and I guess it is not unfeasible that it would affect penalties if there is no separation between the way in which finishing is coded generally. Maybe one of the SI guys will confirm in the week how their soak tests for PK conversion look.

Thank you! Glad to see I can get some reasonable response here and not just posts blindly defending the game.

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More so than the penalty conversion rate - I missed one yesterday, only about the 3rd or 4th I've missed in 8 seasons - is the number of penalties since the patch. I've played nearly a fully season since the patch and I cannot remember the last time I had a game without a penalty being called. It's become very noticeable.

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We run long soaks to test these numbers and there has been no signifcant change from the previous patch. Success rates are at about 85% in ME1555, while real life success rates fall around the 80-85% mark. So we are a little on the high side. In addition, there has been no significant change in the number of penalties between patches. Sometimes when I'm playing through I start to think the number is too high, as I struggle to recall the last penalty miss I've seen or I see penalties awarded in successive matches, but then I'll see a couple missed in a row. Remember, a success rate of 85% doesn't mean that 85 out of every 100 penalties are scored.

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Just had this extended shootout:

2ykge45.png

The first miss was on the 50th penalty taken. Using real life penalty shootout conversion rates, the likelihood of the first 49 penalties being scored is approximately one in a billion.

The major tournament penalty conversion rate for the first five penalties in a shootout ranges between 70% and 85%.

The major tournament penalty conversion rate for sudden death penalties is 65%.

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the conversion rate of penalties scored in fm15 is a little on the high side, but id rather it be on the higher side than lower side, its a difficult part of the match engine to get right, and also remeber matthew le tissier missed like 1 penalty in over 50, so id say the conversion rate is still to low to some players lol, in a perfect world the expert penalty takers like hazard and baines would rarely if ever miss and the not so good miss more often.

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