Jump to content
Sports Interactive Community
DogMartin

Random Number Generator

Recommended Posts

Okay I know I will get shot down for this but it almost seems like FM loads some sort of random number each time you start it up which determines your chances of winning games.

My story: I'm on a 22 match unbeaten run in League 1... this has taken several days because whilst I am winning I dare not shut the game down. I just stop playing but leave it running.

Anyway eventually I decide I am being overly paranoid and shut the game down.

Couple of days later I reload FM2015 my first fixture is at home against the team bottom of the league, I am 2nd and they haven't won an away game all season, I keep the same team that won the last game, their fitness levels are all above 90% I tell them to relax because we will win this game as I normally do and they are all relaxed and happy.

20 minutes in I am 0-3 down and they are all over me no matter what I try. seems to me if you are winning then don't ever reload your game. I can't think of another explanation.

No it isn't my tactics lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Okay

Could you provide some substance for this assertion? I would be very happy if it were true but forgive me if I don't just take your word for it (whoever you are)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why did you tell them to relax? You're on a 22 unbeaten run and you tell your team to relax against a team, when you're at home too, at the bottom of the league?

That's madness and = complacency, you tell your team to relax when you play teams that you're not expected to win.......hence

You should be assertively telling your team that you expect a win so they know what's expected of them. It's what you expected right?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Okay

Could you provide some substance for this assertion? I would be very happy if it were true but forgive me if I don't just take your word for it (whoever you are)

Because its been debunked a number of times by SI

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not in any way related to what you are suggesting but I would suspect the game does have something akin to dicerolls which is essentially just a number generated within certain parameters. Closing/saving/reloading etc wouldn't make any difference on this, but it would be the most likely way to ensure you could put all the same variables in (team selection, morale, tactics etc) and get different outcomes each time because it will decide whether Player X is successful or not when dribbling into the box and shooting for example.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
No it isn't my tactics lol

You are probably right, its not your tactics, its your team talk.

A 22 match unbeaten streak and you tell your team to "Take it easy, we'll win easily"???? Its no wonder you got your arse handed to you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You are probably right, its not your tactics, its your team talk.

A 22 match unbeaten streak and you tell your team to "Take it easy, we'll win easily"???? Its no wonder you got your arse handed to you.

errr no it isn't. I use that team talk regularly. You are missing the point. Re-starting the game seems to res-set something that we don't have any control over. This is just one example and it's something I have noticed in many versions of FM

Deny it all you like but I'm sure there are many other FM players that have experience of this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
errr no it isn't. I use that team talk regularly. You are missing the point. Re-starting the game seems to res-set something that we don't have any control over. This is just one example and it's something I have noticed in many versions of FM

Deny it all you like but I'm sure there are many other FM players that have experience of this

So basically you ask a question, you get your answer but continue to believe your conspiracy theory.

What was the point of asking in the first place?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So basically you ask a question, you get your answer but continue to believe your conspiracy theory.

What was the point of asking in the first place?

with respect. you are not in a position to answer the question any more than I am. I can only speak from game experience. Unless you coded the game then you are in no position to tell me I am wrong. So stop trying to be 'helpful' about something you know nothing about.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
with respect. you are not in a position to answer the question any more than I am. I can only speak from game experience. Unless you coded the game then you are in no position to tell me I am wrong. So stop trying to be 'helpful' about something you know nothing about.

Why ask the question on a public forum if you want an answer from a coder?

The fact is you can prove your theory wrong yourself simply by saving and reloading several times.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Why ask the question on a public forum if you want an answer from a coder?

The fact is you can prove your theory wrong yourself simply by saving and reloading several times.

I'm really not sure if you think you are being helpful or not on this forum. If you think you are then I would suggest you consider 'answering' fewer questions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FM uses a random number generator for all its matches. If it didn't, you'd get the same match every time you reloaded, which is patently not the case.

However, it does not go rabid when you restart your game. Losing after a streak just happens. You have to lose eventually. That it happened when you restarted is just coincidence and the result of some in game decisions you've made (or just bad luck). There will be many times you've won your first game after restarting, but you forget them because of perception bias.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm really not sure if you think you are being helpful or not on this forum. If you think you are then I would suggest you consider 'answering' fewer questions.

Well according to you it doesn't matter anyway as the only meaningful answers come from coders.

The bottom line is, whether you like it or not, SI have stated many times over the years (Before you arrived here) that its a myth. You are free to believe what you want but it doesn't make it real.

Your problem in the match was your team talk, you gave a rubbish one which increased the complacency within your team. The opposition AI manager probably gave a good talk (Something like nothing to lose), they got an early goal which gave them confidence and then another which compounded your problem.

Your formation/tactic may or may not have played into their hands as well but without seeing the match I can't say.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
FM uses a random number generator for all its matches. If it didn't, you'd get the same match every time you reloaded, which is patently not the case.

However, it does not go rabid when you restart your game. Losing after a streak just happens. You have to lose eventually. That it happened when you restarted is just coincidence and the result of some in game decisions you've made (or just bad luck). There will be many times you've won your first game after restarting, but you forget them because of perception bias.

Okay Thanks wwfan. I will just put it down to coincidence that I had an awful result after restarting. I really don't think its down to perception bias though... six games in after restarting from a 22 match unbeaten run I can't buy a win. It must be my tactics but I've told my players I'm restarting the game so they will hopefully all come back as world beaters again :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Okay Thanks wwfan. I will just put it down to coincidence that I had an awful result after restarting. I really don't think its down to perception bias though... six games in after restarting from a 22 match unbeaten run I can't buy a win. It must be my tactics but I've told my players I'm restarting the game so they will hopefully all come back as world beaters again :)

The key to doing well at FM is extending steaks and quickly getting out of slumps. It looks like you have worked out one, but not the latter.

There's always a reason for it to be happening. Tactics, morale, man-management, weather, tiredness, complacency, nerves. Up to you to work out what needs fixing so you can turn things around.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The key to doing well at FM is extending steaks and quickly getting out of slumps. It looks like you have worked out one, but not the latter.

There's always a reason for it to be happening. Tactics, morale, man-management, weather, tiredness, complacency, nerves. Up to you to work out what needs fixing so you can turn things around.

Okay thxs for ur input. I'm still not ever gonna close the game down again when I'm on a winning streak heh :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Since FM resets a load of stuff with a random number generator - in your opinion I must add - why do you not just close the game and reopen it after every loss (saving before of course, would not want to repeat games). Surely at some point it will reset the parameters to values that basically ensure you will win the next game. Or do you not think it works that way?

Out of interest, what parameters do you think are reset when you restart? Your tactics and their familiarity, the player moral, their mood, and their form are fixed and can be seen in-game, so it cannot be any of these. What else exists that can so affect the outcome of a game?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The MYTH is true.

With MK Dons i won back to back seasons, promoted to the Premier league.

My team was unbeatable to an extent, the first 3 games of the premier league, 3-3 away draw to Arsenal, the 2 wins at home against mid table sides.

My laptop shut down, and BOOM! Couldn't get a win/draw to save my life. This has happened on FM14 also. For those who say this doesn't happen clearly have never witnessed it and think we're conspiracy nut jobs. Also of course Si wont admit this happens because it would compromise they're game.

Think what you want, but the MYTH is true.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In the old, basic FM/CM games, this was true. The random number affected form etc. These days all that info is stored separate so the random number doesn't influence much at all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's weird we don't hear of people being on losing streaks, and when they shut the game down and start it up again that all of sudden they win...

Point is, you only notice these things when they go against you. When it's in your favour you're more than happy to take it.

For example I got a 6-0 drubbing by a team when I was on a winning streak, I had only conceded 4 goals in 20 games. All of a sudden my defenders were a disaster.

But when I won 10-0 a few days later after delivering a diatribe to the defenders and the whole team I was very pleased.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What a load of rubbish. Quitting the game doesn't effect a winning or unbeaten streak whatsoever. Currently on a 66 game unbeaten run in the league, and trust me, I've saved and quit the game plenty of times in that run..

unbeaten.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Why did you tell them to relax? You're on a 22 unbeaten run and you tell your team to relax against a team, when you're at home too, at the bottom of the league?

That's madness and = complacency, you tell your team to relax when you play teams that you're not expected to win.......hence

You should be assertively telling your team that you expect a win so they know what's expected of them. It's what you expected right?

So you think that realism is when a top team gets trashed, at home,0-3, after 20min of game, against the worst team in the league, just because of what the manager said before the game starts? Really?

To me, this is a clear sign that theres something really wrong with the game!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The MYTH is true.

With MK Dons i won back to back seasons, promoted to the Premier league.

My team was unbeatable to an extent, the first 3 games of the premier league, 3-3 away draw to Arsenal, the 2 wins at home against mid table sides.

My laptop shut down, and BOOM! Couldn't get a win/draw to save my life. This has happened on FM14 also. For those who say this doesn't happen clearly have never witnessed it and think we're conspiracy nut jobs. Also of course Si wont admit this happens because it would compromise they're game.

Think what you want, but the MYTH is true.

:lol:

Interesting you describe it as a myth that's true. Nice fallacy. But as I said elsewhere, it's a myth because it isn't true.

And now a variation on the question I usually ask in these situations. You mention SI won't "admit" this. So why exactly would they put this in the game? Why would they deliberately put in something that renders the rest of the game pretty pointless given that everything is now "random"? If they didn't put it there deliberately, then why haven't they coded it away in the many, many years that this rubbish has been spouted?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So you think that realism is when a top team gets trashed, at home,0-3, after 20min of game, against the worst team in the league, just because of what the manager said before the game starts? Really?

To me, this is a clear sign that theres something really wrong with the game!

Thats not what he is saying at all.

The poor team talk was just the start to the downward slope. It put his team in the wrong mindset & encouraged complacency, as I stated in a previous post the opposition manager probably gave a good team talk but even then something needs to happen on the field. We haven't seen the match but a mixture of the team talk, the tactics and maybe a bit of bad luck saw the opposition take the lead boosting their confidence while it did nothing to help the OP's team which then led to another goal & another.

A better team talk might have prevented the opening goal and stopped the slide down the slope, on the other hand it might not, we'll never know. Either way the OP approached the match all wrong and got punished which is the way it should be.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thats not what he is saying at all.

The poor team talk was just the start to the downward slope. It put his team in the wrong mindset & encouraged complacency, as I stated in a previous post the opposition manager probably gave a good team talk but even then something needs to happen on the field. We haven't seen the match but a mixture of the team talk, the tactics and maybe a bit of bad luck saw the opposition take the lead boosting their confidence while it did nothing to help the OP's team which then led to another goal & another.

A better team talk might have prevented the opening goal and stopped the slide down the slope, on the other hand it might not, we'll never know. Either way the OP approached the match all wrong and got punished which is the way it should be.

You are making the assumption that tactic and luck have anything to do with it. But in truth, it seems that the only thing that he make wrong was the team talk. As for the tactic, he was in a 22 game winning streak... so the tactic should be ok.

I'm not saying that a bad team talk can't make the team complacency, and even cost the win. But... putting a top team loosing 3-0 after 20min. I never seen anything like that in my life.

Let's say... Chelsea vs QPR. Mourinho tell the team to relax... and Bang... after 20min QPR are winning 3-0 at Stamford Bridge. It's insane. It never happens irl... but it happens alot in FM.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
In the old, basic FM/CM games, this was true. The random number affected form etc. These days all that info is stored separate so the random number doesn't influence much at all.

Yes and I bet at that time people were complaining about it but were told "its your tactics" or "its confirmation bias" or "you are paranoid" - and it fact it wasn't and they weren't. It *was* the game. The point is sometimes the complainers are correct and perpetually dismissing them with "its your tactics" does not help.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You are making the assumption that tactic and luck have anything to do with it.

Tactics & luck always play a role in every match.

But in truth, it seems that the only thing that he make wrong was the team talk. As for the tactic, he was in a 22 game winning streak... so the tactic should be ok.

Just because he was on a 22 game win streak doesn't mean his tactic was the right choice for this match, it might have been fine, there may have been some small important areas that were bad, it may have overall been bad but without seeing it we don't know enough to judge.

However we do know enough about his team talk even without seeing the personalities of his players to be able to give a general assessment.

I'm not saying that a bad team talk can't make the team complacency, and even cost the win. But... putting a top team loosing 3-0 after 20min. I never seen anything like that in my life.

Let's say... Chelsea vs QPR. Mourinho tell the team to relax... and Bang... after 20min QPR are winning 3-0 at Stamford Bridge. It's insane. It never happens irl... but it happens alot in FM.

You need to ask yourself why it doesn't happen very often IRL.

The bottom line is, in general that managers IRL are much more competent, they give better team talks, they know how to to motivate their players and they have a better grasp of tactics.

EDIT

That said even managers IRL get it wrong, remember the World Cup - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazil_v_Germany_%282014_FIFA_World_Cup%29

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Okay

Could you provide some substance for this assertion? I would be very happy if it were true but forgive me if I don't just take your word for it (whoever you are)

Can you provide substance that it does? You could test it. Play a long sitting, saving before each match, making a new save each time (numbering them by match). Do this for a large set (in excess of 20 matches, preferably much more, but they must all be done in one sitting). At the end, reload each of those saves and play that match. Compare results.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
That said even managers IRL get it wrong, remember the World Cup - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazil_v_Germany_%282014_FIFA_World_Cup%29

I agree with you that this game was very influenced by the mental part of the game. Call it team talk, motivation, experience, whatever...

But it was a game between two very strong and equal teams.

I agree that between equal teams, a good team talk can make the difference between winning or loosing and can even make a team trashing the other, like in that semi final.

but sometimes i feel that in FM we stretch too much the influence of the mental part of the game. Team talks, motivation etc etc, can have a big influence when on both side of the pitch the quality of the players are similar, but when there is a big gap, in the end of the day, 9/10 the better team wins... and never gets trashed like it happen with the OP.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just want to clarify a couple of things Keyzer.

A) Team talks only have an affect for the first 15 mins of each half and those effects are over-ridden by what happens on the pitch.

B) The OP is in League 1 where the difference in quality of teams between top & bottom is much smaller than some other leagues.

The motivation/mental side of the game is something that I would like to see tweaked. At the moment if you have an unmotivated side on the field its nigh on impossible to improve it with a players mental state seemingly built up over many games/team talks/media comments etc. Once you have it swinging in one direction it seems to take too long to drag it the other way either positively or negatively. If their mental states fluctuated more I suspect we would see it have less influence on the pitch and this would maybe be more realistic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

look i can see that you're just annoyed and aren't taking advice from anyone but why not tell your players to shape up to avoid complacency just to check your "myth"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I really don't think it's anything to do with my team talk, that's just a red herring. It's not as if it was the first time I had used the 'relax, go and play your game and the result will come' (or whatever it is) talk. I use it very regularly, the players react positively (green reaction) so I really cannot see that being the cause.

Nobody is suggesting that the game generates a random number which determines results and nothing you do will change what happens. What is more likely is that each time you start up the game afresh certain parameters that are used to simulate 'randomness' or 'chance' are re-set. Most times it would make no noticeable difference but there may be occasions when 'the random number', for want of a better phrase, was re-set from one end of the scale to the other and that WOULD make a noticeable difference.

That would make more sense and does tie in with the actual experiences that people have had. It doesn't break the game, FM15 is the best so far in my opinion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I really don't think it's anything to do with my team talk, that's just a red herring. It's not as if it was the first time I had used the 'relax, go and play your game and the result will come' (or whatever it is) talk. I use it very regularly, the players react positively (green reaction) so I really cannot see that being the cause.

You're making a common mistake by assuming that a green reaction is good and a red reaction bad, you aren't the first and you won't be the last to make that mistake.

Your team talk was bad and I don't need to use my 20 odd years of playing FM to tell me that, basic common sense tells me that.

EDIT

Whilst I've banged the drum a fair bit this thread on your team talk I will add it wasn't simply the sole cause but it did play a part. Other factors also went against you, if you upload the PKM we can make a better judgement and maybe identify some of those other factors.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I remember reading the team talk only affects in the early minutes of the game, and it makes sences that it's implement in the game like that. I just feels that sometimes the level os influence is to high and it needs to be more balanced.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
In the old, basic FM/CM games, this was true. The random number affected form etc. These days all that info is stored separate so the random number doesn't influence much at all.

Random numbers indirectly effect pretty much every part of the game, just like they always have.

But they are not the overriding factor in whether you win or lose, that would obviously make most games and simulations (not just FM) rather pointless.

Clearly if you save the game and play the same match many times you will get different results because of randomisation.

But all the important data used to calculate matches, such as current player and team form, is retained.

If you close the game, it will still know about your winning or losing streak when you reload and this will be factored into the match just as it would have been before.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Telling your players to relax against a team battling for their life at the bottom of the table :lol:

There's a very good reason this rarely happens in real life. Can you guess what the denominator is here?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It seems pretty clear to me that this "issue" has nothing to do with reloading the game. I have experienced devastating slumps of form after a big unexpected loss, but my interpretation is that it is related to the big drop in morale that follows such a loss. This morale drop seems to me to be a balancing tool, if you will, to make the game slightly harder.

The game is designed to be "easy" and to emphasize attacking football because this is what most people want, and what generates the most sales. FM has always been this way, and always will. Because SI are not in it to make the perfect realistic simulation of football management, they are in it to make money.

So no, they do not do anything that would "sabotage" the human player, and no, they wont do anything to alienate the average (casual) player, etc, etc, etc and so on. The bottom line is the bottom line and as in any business, it dictates most decisions. Everything else is myth, or wishful thinking...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In FM 14 I played with Barcelona and was on a 30-35 games unbeaten run. I had to play against the second best team in the league (FC Barcelona Lions, which I have created with the pre-game editor and made much stronger than real M). I wanted to continue my run. So I saved and played the game and lost. Restarted the game and played again and lost. I tried this like 20 times and lost all 20 times. I even took control over FC Barcelona Lions, made poor team talk, played 2-3-5 and lost again. :D Finally, when I put a striker to be their goalkeeper I won 5-3. Only 5-3!!!!

So, if random numbers were deciding the games, it's impossible to restart more than 30 times and always get the same result. About your streak, you just had very long winning streak, every streak in reality comes to an end. Look at Real M now, only one win in 4 games. You were complacent, made poor choice and lost, it was time for you to loose and FM just calculated based on your decision this to happened.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It seems pretty clear to me that this "issue" has nothing to do with reloading the game. I have experienced devastating slumps of form after a big unexpected loss, but my interpretation is that it is related to the big drop in morale that follows such a loss. This morale drop seems to me to be a balancing tool, if you will, to make the game slightly harder.

The game is designed to be "easy" and to emphasize attacking football because this is what most people want, and what generates the most sales. FM has always been this way, and always will. Because SI are not in it to make the perfect realistic simulation of football management, they are in it to make money.

So no, they do not do anything that would "sabotage" the human player, and no, they wont do anything to alienate the average (casual) player, etc, etc, etc and so on. The bottom line is the bottom line and as in any business, it dictates most decisions. Everything else is myth, or wishful thinking...

You were doing really well, but probably lost it at the bolded part. That is just not true. They're designing it to be as close to football as they can get it, but are never likely to truly get there.

The "in it to make money" part is also very short-sighted - they're a business, yes, but if the be all and end all was making money, I'm sure you would have seen EA-levels of douchebaggery with the use of microtransactions all over the shop. They could easily maximise their profits far more than they already are, but they don't. They actually have passion for the product, unlike some companies.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...