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World Cup Betting Thread - with as much discussion as possible!

gillsminnow

By gillsminnow,
in 2014 World Cup Forum

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Philip Rolfe

Philip Rolfe

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Brazil to score over 2.5 goals or more against Croatia at 1.80 while France to score 2.5 goals or more against Honduras was at 2.00 last time I checked on skybet. Both are very realistic imo.

Only nine examples of a team scoring >2.5 goals in their opening game in the last three WCs, so 48 games. Doesn't seem tremendously likely with the typically cagey, safety-first openings many teams now adopt.

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ReggaeBwoy

ReggaeBwoy

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Only nine examples of a team scoring >2.5 goals in their opening game in the last three WCs, so 48 games. Doesn't seem tremendously likely with the typically cagey, safety-first openings many teams now adopt.

I reckon Brazil are going to play their usual stylish play and will be too strong for Croatia. Interesting stat but looking at Honduras against Israel, I expect France to tear them apart.

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Lermon

Lermon

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199/1 that's good

Did you select the team total goals option?

Just do top team goal scorer- no team goalscorer. Only thing is bet365 don't seem to allow you to do that in a multiple but done it on another one.

Cameroon,Iran,Costa Rica no goal scorer= 180/1 but that's beefed up by Cameroon which might be unlikely to not not score.

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av3ry

av3ry

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I've checked on Bet365 about Brazil and France to score over 2.5 goals...

France 2/1, Brazil 6/4. I believe they are higher odds than mentioned above. France will definitely be worth it IMO.

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kccircle

kccircle

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Hi Guys, My blog previewing who will be the Top Scorer can be found here if interested.. http://thecolumnofcertainty.wordpress.com/2014/06/02/world-cup-2014s-top-marksmen-a-top-goalscorer-preview/

What are we are thinking for the Golden Boot? Fred is a real stand-out for me, and the value of Paulinho too..

Lukaku for me - with Benteke out he will play every game (unless they win their first two group games)

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gillsminnow

gillsminnow

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Coming toward the end of my pre-tournament betting now. Got £260~ on which is more than enough. Will probably stick £50 in another account and portion it off for the day-to-day stuff. Will post up all my bets when I'm home later.

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EnterUsernameHere

EnterUsernameHere

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Coming toward the end of my pre-tournament betting now. Got £260~ on which is more than enough. Will probably stick £50 in another account and portion it off for the day-to-day stuff. Will post up all my bets when I'm home later.

Ha, same. Got £255 on now, going to do a £5 top team goalscorer soon but apart from that I'm done (unless there's an offer too good to turn down).

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ScottMac

ScottMac

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Coming toward the end of my pre-tournament betting now. Got £260~ on which is more than enough. Will probably stick £50 in another account and portion it off for the day-to-day stuff. Will post up all my bets when I'm home later.

Yeah, would be interested to see what you have on if you can be bothered posting them all!

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EnterUsernameHere

EnterUsernameHere

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Niiice :cool:

What you got on?

To be honest it's mostly Messi top scorer or Argentina to win. Hadn't planned to put so much on either but bookies kept enhancing the odds so I kept topping up :D

Other bets are:

Chile/Japan/Portugal/Bosnia all to qualify from their group @ 15/1

Dual forecast 7-folds (would take ages listing all 16 teams but as far as I remember it's the 16 I predicted in that thread of yours)

Iniesta to get the most assists in the tournament @ 50/1

Iniesta golden ball @ 25/1

Pogba young player of the tournament @ 7/1

Nothing really exciting.

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Philip Rolfe

Philip Rolfe

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I've got about ten bets on individual nation leading scorers and a few speculative tournament top scorer bets so far. Currently weighing up whether Waris Majeed at a best price of 10s is worth a dabble as Ghana's top scorer. Great form in 2014 and given I don't expect Ghana to get out of their group he shouldn't need that many to come through, but I'm uncertain how much he'll play.

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gillsminnow

gillsminnow

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Ok so here are my bets for the World Cup 2014 so far. Around half of them I've put on just when I've won a bit so put an odd chunk that I haven't withdrawn on something I fancied, a couple have been due to offers and others I've seen stuff mentioned and thought "that would be good".

I'll try to break them up into chunks as the forum only allows for four pictures and they're all on my WC spreadsheet. The win column shows the minimum possible return for permutations and actual return for straight accumulators.

Straight match accumulators

ba65aa5e63fb183bdd29b0d37c7c6c29.png

Bets 2 and 7 don't really need too much explaining. Bet 16 was placed with BetVictor as there was a tip in the betting thread and I needed to put £25 on something to get a free bet. In order to have a chance at a return for one of these I need the following to happen:

Uruguay to beat Costa Rica

France to beat Honduras

Holland to beat Australia

Italy to beat Costa Rica

Argentina to beat Iran

Germany to beat USA

Other bets

d147d9716529862430254f489eac8e30.png

Link to picture

Bets 17 and 18 are part of Readingfanman's sweepstake on the WC forum. Bets 20 and 27 are Top Goalscorer/Golden Boot offers with PaddyPower and BetBright whereby they give you a free £5 bet for every goal your chosen player scores. Bet 19 is a straight accumulator of Top Team Goalscorers and Bet 22 is a permutation of Top Team Goalscorers. Bets 23 and 25 were both mentioned in here and I liked the look of, with bet 25 being the selections I used to give me the higher odds of 199/1 for Australia, Honduras and Costa Rica to score 0 goals.

Win or BTTS accumulators

6b9970cf0ee64e9c7885316271913c70.png

The MM (minnow method) fully in swing with these ones with the perm'd Win/BTTS selections. Bets 6 and 26 are standard versions of that and Bets 1 and 8 have a couple of straight win selections in to boost the odds a bit hopefully.

Group Wins/Forecasts/Dual Forecasts

57ab65209f3046f48bf338e07d1bae9d.png

Link to picture

Now this is where it gets a bit hairy. I quite enjoyed making these bets which is why there's so many of them. As I made them over a period of time I didn't really check what I already had on so it's more or less an 'eggs all in one basket' situation. Bets 3, 4, 5, 11, 14 and 15 are ridiculously speculative. Around four of the bets in there were made using an average of the picks people made in the thread "How do you think the groups will pan out?" which is another reason there is also so many. The more sensible ones I've perm'd selections of.

So there we go, that's a roundup of all of my bets so far. I may possibly have one or two more (I doubt it) but I've got a fair bit there to keep me occupied and interested in pretty much all the games going on. I've added a link below the two larger pictures so you can click for the full version.

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Lermon

Lermon

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That's impressive gillsminnow. There's a proper betting fan. Only thing I say is beware the accumulators. There's a sheet at every bookies- the win a million. It's there as it knows the longer it extends that accumulator the absolute zero chance it has coming in.

I like the Cs accu. Good selections.

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Lermon

Lermon

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Iran is a good one as well for other teams to have clean sheets against. Carlos Quieroz when manager of Portugal, had a good ability in getting clean sheets for Portugal but apparently stopping Portugal scoring as well.

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Jonno-Blood

Jonno-Blood

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Those bets you've got gills where you get a free bet for every goal the player scores, you're aware that one (or both maybe) requires you place a bet on each match he plays in to qualify for the free bets right? Wouldn't want you to miss out.

EDIT: Just looked and I'm thinking of the 888 offer that's the same, no idea about BetBright's or PP's but I'd check anyway.

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kccircle

kccircle

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Had England vs Ecuador, Algeria vs Romania and Iceland vs Estonia

The weekend bet saw 5 of the 8 trebles come through, this time the two.

It's a great format

I do 8 x 64p bets which is a £5.12 stake and make sure the team to win is around evens.

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gillsminnow

gillsminnow

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I think I worked it out a while after I started doing it that trebles were the best Risk vs Reward balance and were the most efficient for the method.

I will probably do a bigger one for the tournement with teams like Chile (1.50) BTTS (2.20), Colombia (1.80) BTTS (2.37) etc

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EnterUsernameHere

EnterUsernameHere

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Dzeko to outscore Rooney is 2.20 which I'm considering going big on and having that as my largest World Cup bet.

Not bad, seems a nice price. Where's that at?

Just put a few quid on Alexis Sánchez e/w most assists @ 50/1. Doubt he'll win it but reckon he's a good chance of finishing in the top 4 if Chile get out of their group. Not as good a price as Iniesta most assists @ 50/1 though.

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av3ry

av3ry

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They played in November and Russia won if that helps. Korea lost 3 of their last 4 games (Mexico 4-0, USA 2-0, Tunisia 1-0) but the way everyone has been playing in these warm-up games I wouldnt take any notice of that.

Both have one warmup game left...

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Lermon

Lermon

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Racing post has come up with their tips for the World Cup. They are strongly siding Argentina. (Well each writer has different views but a whole page devoted to their argument of Argentina winning)

They think Germany doesn't have a chance in hell, same for Russia, (they tip them to be bottom of the group!) and say Holland will be lucky to get anywhere. Spain, and France they think will do well. And tip Chile to qualify.

They also tip Ronaldo for top scorer.

Here we go:

Brazil to get 9 points @ 11/10

Chile to qualify@ 10/11

Australia zero points @ 6/4

Ivory Coast to qualify@11/10

Greece to finish bottom 13/8

Italy winner group D 13/8

Italy-England dual f/c 11/5

France-Swiss straight f/c 11/5

Argentina-Bosnia straight f/c 6/4

Iran under 1.5 group pts 4/5

USA under 2.5 gro points @ 21/20

Russia not to qualify 9/5 ( I strongly disagree here)

Russia to finish bottom @ 9/1

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seanydude

seanydude

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Betfred are doing boosts every day before the WC, £100 Max, the Two most interesting are Monday- Argentina into the Final @3/1 and Wednesday Ronaldo to be Top Portuguese Goalscorer at Even Money ( Is best priced 1/2 atm) Tomorrow is Klose top German Scorer @6's Saturday is France to reach the Semi's @5-1 Sunday is Rooney top England Scorer @4's and Tuesday is RVP top Dutch Scorer @2's. Also boosting Brazil to 4's this weekend

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EnterUsernameHere

EnterUsernameHere

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Betfred are doing boosts every day before the WC, £100 Max, the Two most interesting are Monday- Argentina into the Final @3/1 and Wednesday Ronaldo to be Top Portuguese Goalscorer at Even Money ( Is best priced 1/2 atm) Tomorrow is Klose top German Scorer @6's Saturday is France to reach the Semi's @5-1 Sunday is Rooney top England Scorer @4's and Tuesday is RVP top Dutch Scorer @2's. Also boosting Brazil to 4's this weekend

Oh, was following their site carefully every day but didn't know they had announced the future enhancements already. Cheers :thup:

Totesport have been doing the same by the way if you're wanting to double the £100 max (they started earlier than Betfred).

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seanydude

seanydude

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Oh, was following their site carefully every day but didn't know they had announced the future enhancements already. Cheers :thup:

Totesport have been doing the same by the way if you're wanting to double the £100 max (they started earlier than Betfred).

They haven't, I managed to find out through a staff member :brock:

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