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World Cup Betting Thread - with as much discussion as possible!

gillsminnow

By gillsminnow,
in 2014 World Cup Forum

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EnterUsernameHere

EnterUsernameHere

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Yeah got on that earlier. You can get 5/1 elsewhere so it's not a great enhancement by their standards but would be putting over £20 on Argentina anyway so it'll mean an extra £10 potential winnings...

Ladbrokes refusing all losing World Cup winner bets by the way if Neymar, Cristiano Ronaldo, Messi or Suárez finish top goalscorer.

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gillsminnow

gillsminnow

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Using the thread I made "How do you think the groups will pan out?" I added up points to each of the teams and put the most popular selections from that thread into some group bets.

Ivory Coast and Japan were the only teams tied for 2nd spot (2pts for 1st and 1pt for 2nd).

Here's the first two bets (straight group forecasts and a dual forecast - 2 x £1 lines on each due to Ivory Coast and Japan drawing).

72c82177fb65d577ba743316c7c4ffed.png

And then the next two I took the top team for each group and doubled them with the 2nd and 3rd most popular teams to do some straight forecasts and dual forecasts (except the final two groups which were the most clear cut because Bet365 only let you make 14 selections on your slip).

These are both 64 x 10p permutations (£6.40 per bet)

8f0bb333202061d456409581a88e4c20.png

The winnings are the minimum possible per bet going by the lowest odds for each group selection.

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Pukey

Pukey

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Using the thread I made "How do you think the groups will pan out?" I added up points to each of the teams and put the most popular selections from that thread into some group bets.

Ivory Coast and Japan were the only teams tied for 2nd spot (2pts for 1st and 1pt for 2nd).

Here's the first two bets (straight group forecasts and a dual forecast - 2 x £1 lines on each due to Ivory Coast and Japan drawing).

72c82177fb65d577ba743316c7c4ffed.png

And then the next two I took the top team for each group and doubled them with the 2nd and 3rd most popular teams to do some straight forecasts and dual forecasts (except the final two groups which were the most clear cut because Bet365 only let you make 14 selections on your slip).

These are both 64 x 10p permutations (£6.40 per bet)

8f0bb333202061d456409581a88e4c20.png

The winnings are the minimum possible per bet going by the lowest odds for each group selection.

You used us :(

In seriousness, that's a good effort, that. Hope it doesn't go tits up with some randomer like Iran winning the group :D

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gillsminnow

gillsminnow

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Also whilst here this is a method I've been using a fair bit over the last couple of seasons. I came up with it myself and call it the Minnow Method (cheesy as **** but hey).

It relies on the team you choose ONLY having to score a single goal to keep you in the bet but with bigger rewards should things all fall into place.

What you do is you choose a team to win and also select Both Teams To Score (Yes) from the same game. This gives you two selections that cannot be combined, so you do this on another match aswell. Two matches will give you 4 combinations of doubles (4 lines), each game you add selections for will double that (3 games = 8 lines, 4 games = 16 lines and so on). Now where you have combined your team to win and also both teams to score (yes) you only need your team to score a goal because if they do they're either going to win 1-0 or the other team will score and BTTS will have won. If your team wins and BTTS happens (i.e. 2-1, 3-2, 3-1 or whatever) then you double the amount of lines you win (2 for one match, 4 for two, 8 for 3 etc).

Using this way you can get some high odds accumulators come off, think this was my best last season and the season before the best was 1182/1

b6b643a64b0242306417fa5263399497.png

So if you wanted to place a £10 total bet on three games your slip would look something like this:

8cf6b60455c417191e8454aef2123d1b.png

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ryano

ryano

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Was bored at work last night so flicked through the team specials and here's a few i've picked out:

Croatia to concede over 4.5 goals @ 11/10

Iran to get 0 points @ 11/4

South Korea to qualify from group stages @ 9/5

Honduras to concede over 5.5 goals @ 10/11

Ghana to concede over 4.5 goals @ 4/6

Will add a few in the near future. Trying to get a bet for each group going and combine them in various permutations. If I needed to pick a best bet from them it would be Iran to score 0 points.

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hilly_boro

hilly_boro

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Also whilst here this is a method I've been using a fair bit over the last couple of seasons. I came up with it myself and call it the Minnow Method (cheesy as **** but hey).

It relies on the team you choose ONLY having to score a single goal to keep you in the bet but with bigger rewards should things all fall into place.

What you do is you choose a team to win and also select Both Teams To Score (Yes) from the same game. This gives you two selections that cannot be combined, so you do this on another match aswell. Two matches will give you 4 combinations of doubles (4 lines), each game you add selections for will double that (3 games = 8 lines, 4 games = 16 lines and so on). Now where you have combined your team to win and also both teams to score (yes) you only need your team to score a goal because if they do they're either going to win 1-0 or the other team will score and BTTS will have won. If your team wins and BTTS happens (i.e. 2-1, 3-2, 3-1 or whatever) then you double the amount of lines you win (2 for one match, 4 for two, 8 for 3 etc).

Using this way you can get some high odds accumulators come off, think this was my best last season and the season before the best was 1182/1

b6b643a64b0242306417fa5263399497.png

So if you wanted to place a £10 total bet on three games your slip would look something like this:

8cf6b60455c417191e8454aef2123d1b.png

Just to let you know gills, I tried this today and I've trebled my stake through 16 lines.

Very impressed.

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jamescrews1

jamescrews1

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paddy doing Place a €/£10 bet on the World Cup Outright Winner market and get a €/£5 free bet on the first game of the tournament - Brazil v Croatia

and also this Place a €/£20 bet on a player in the World Cup Top Goalscorer market and get a €/£5 free bet every time he scores.

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scotty206

scotty206

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Not sure if it's been posted but Paddypower are doing a top goalscorer offer.

Place a £20 bet on the top goal scorer market and they will give you a £5 freebet everytime he scores.

I've gone Lukaku at 25/1. Looking at Belgium's group I think he will get a few. (Scored a hat trick tonight in a friendly too)

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EnterUsernameHere

EnterUsernameHere

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How much are people betting on World Cup antepost markets? Got about £150 worth on already and I'm nowhere near finished :D

Although a lot of that is from free bets to be fair (bet on CL final and get a WC outright free bet for example...)

Edit: And yeah, part of that is on the offer you said there scotty. Just went for Messi top scorer though, it's his year :cool:

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gillsminnow

gillsminnow

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How much are people betting on World Cup antepost markets? Got about £150 worth on already and I'm nowhere near finished :D

Although a lot of that is from free bets to be fair (bet on CL final and get a WC outright free bet for example...)

Edit: And yeah, part of that is on the offer you said there scotty. Just went for Messi top scorer though, it's his year :cool:

Got £136 on so far on various different things. Again, probably nowhere near finished.

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vasilli07

vasilli07

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Also whilst here this is a method I've been using a fair bit over the last couple of seasons. I came up with it myself and call it the Minnow Method (cheesy as **** but hey).

It relies on the team you choose ONLY having to score a single goal to keep you in the bet but with bigger rewards should things all fall into place.

What you do is you choose a team to win and also select Both Teams To Score (Yes) from the same game. This gives you two selections that cannot be combined, so you do this on another match aswell. Two matches will give you 4 combinations of doubles (4 lines), each game you add selections for will double that (3 games = 8 lines, 4 games = 16 lines and so on). Now where you have combined your team to win and also both teams to score (yes) you only need your team to score a goal because if they do they're either going to win 1-0 or the other team will score and BTTS will have won. If your team wins and BTTS happens (i.e. 2-1, 3-2, 3-1 or whatever) then you double the amount of lines you win (2 for one match, 4 for two, 8 for 3 etc).

Using this way you can get some high odds accumulators come off, think this was my best last season and the season before the best was 1182/1

b6b643a64b0242306417fa5263399497.png

So if you wanted to place a £10 total bet on three games your slip would look something like this:

8cf6b60455c417191e8454aef2123d1b.png

Do I need to bet on selection with odds over $2 for it to work?

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Lermon

Lermon

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How much are people betting on World Cup antepost markets? Got about £150 worth on already and I'm nowhere near finished :D

Although a lot of that is from free bets to be fair (bet on CL final and get a WC outright free bet for example...)

Edit: And yeah, part of that is on the offer you said there scotty. Just went for Messi top scorer though, it's his year :cool:

I've bet £2 so far. :D

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ScottMac

ScottMac

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How much are people betting on World Cup antepost markets? Got about £150 worth on already and I'm nowhere near finished :D

Although a lot of that is from free bets to be fair (bet on CL final and get a WC outright free bet for example...)

Edit: And yeah, part of that is on the offer you said there scotty. Just went for Messi top scorer though, it's his year :cool:

Think I'm around the £250 mark but that's me more or less done unless anything comes up nearer the time.

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Emersonlfc

Emersonlfc

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I'm around the £150 mark.

More or less finished and now just setting aside for the tournament itself.

Edit : My two main bets are Messi for Top Goalscorer and Argentina to win. Pretty much all of the above money is on them two via various offers.

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pago

pago

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Yeah I'm on messi via paddy power. Saw a slightly worrying stat on twitter the other day: messi has scored the same amount of World Cup goals as Gary breen... Must be his year this time surely?!

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Pukey

Pukey

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Yeah I'm on messi via paddy power. Saw a slightly worrying stat on twitter the other day: messi has scored the same amount of World Cup goals as Gary breen... Must be his year this time surely?!

2006 he was a benchwarmer, 2010 Maradona was in charge (and Messi still played brilliantly, was ridiculously unlucky not to score iirc.)

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Philip Rolfe

Philip Rolfe

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Been looking at tournament top scorers bets, have to say I like Josip Drmic generally available around 100/1. Switzerland don't have the hardest group and should get into the last sixteen so he gets at least four matches, including Ecuador and Honduras. They have a chance of a favourable R2 match by avoiding Argentina and at that point he gets a 5th match; anything beyond that is dreamworld stuff for Switzerland though. He's obviously their guy, scored again tonight, 3 in 6 caps so far and obviously off a fine club season. Could even end up on penalties if he's lucky.

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daylight

daylight

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Not much of a betting guy these days but I think I will have a couple of Euros on Thomas Muller to be top goalscorer and Germany to win the WC.

It is almost a 200/1 double, not bad for a team that is bound to do well and a player with an eye for goal.

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vasilli07

vasilli07

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Fred as Golden Boot Winner @ $23

He was last year confederations cup top scorer(finished 2nd because he took more mins to score). If Brazil go far in the tournament, I could see him scoring 5-6 goals which should be enough for him to win the top scorer award again.

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hyndlegs

hyndlegs

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Been looking at tournament top scorers bets, have to say I like Josip Drmic generally available around 100/1. Switzerland don't have the hardest group and should get into the last sixteen so he gets at least four matches, including Ecuador and Honduras. They have a chance of a favourable R2 match by avoiding Argentina and at that point he gets a 5th match; anything beyond that is dreamworld stuff for Switzerland though. He's obviously their guy, scored again tonight, 3 in 6 caps so far and obviously off a fine club season. Could even end up on penalties if he's lucky.

Good shout have heard him mentioned a few times as an outsider, he's 160.00 on betfair which looks very generous!!

Are you still keeping a log of potential penalty takers from various nations as I know you did for one of the previous tounraments ?

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ShyBaldBuddhist

ShyBaldBuddhist

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I think the issue with Drmic being top scorer is the fact the Swiss don't really score that many. Difficult to see him getting the 6 goals it generally takes to win the golden boot The 5/2 on offer for him to be top Swiss scorer looks tempting though.

edit: In fact he is 7/2 most places. I was on 365 at the time so the only place I was checking the price out. Definitely worth a punt at that price I think

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kccircle

kccircle

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@Gillsminnow - I've tried that method you described above and waiting on Belgium v Sweden tonight. Have Belgium and BTTS to win so basically if Belgium score I win something.

How far have you gone with this in terms of the number of matches - mine is a treble

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