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gillsminnow

World Cup Betting Thread - with as much discussion as possible!

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Ozil to score the first goal in the first half is 11/1 in a power play with PP FYI

Yeah, that's a better bet. Saw it too late

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Have a free £10 in play bet with PP any ideas who to pick as a fgs? Fancy a speculative pop.

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Need some help with some betting maths please gang.

Have two 'top nation scorer' accumulators that are doing well but with one or two bogeys each. I have bolded the ones marked as wins and underlined the ones im waiting on. Both are the same but the second has Lukaku (:()

Neymar, Ronaldo, Sturridge, Van Persie, Dzeko, Messi

£3 bet = £448.51

Neymar, Ronaldo, Sturridge, Van Persie, Dzeko, Messi, Lukaku

£2 bet = £897.01

You can say Neymar and Messi are pretty certain to win for their nations. That means that i've two issues:

Holland Main issue is Robben really posing a problem. Should I place a biggish bet on Robben?

Belgium Lukaku is looking awful, but fortunately the 4 goals scored by Belgium so far have all been by different people. Still a chance he comes in with a goal or two against the USA. Cant find the lay market on betfair currently for the price.

So any thoughts much appreciated. I'd love to let these ride but would be equally gutted if they both lost and I came out with nothing.

Check the actual returns if you haven't already mate. Dzeko is a dead heat of 4, Sturridge is a dead heat of 2 and Ronaldo is a dead heat of 3.

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Check the actual returns if you haven't already mate. Dzeko is a dead heat of 4, Sturridge is a dead heat of 2 and Ronaldo is a dead heat of 3.

I was wondering about that, only shows me the 'Potential Returns', not sure how to see actual returns?

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Have a free £10 in play bet with PP any ideas who to pick as a fgs? Fancy a speculative pop.

Höwedes probably the best long shot out there.

Edit: Noticed he's only 14/1 at paddy. Not good enough

Slimani at 11/1 is decent

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I was wondering about that, only shows me the 'Potential Returns', not sure how to see actual returns?

Who's it with?

What was your odds for each?

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I was wondering about that, only shows me the 'Potential Returns', not sure how to see actual returns?

At approximate odds from what I remember pre-tournament this is with a £5 stake

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Was with Paddy Power. Odd were:

Lukaku 3.00

Neymar 2.10

Ronaldo 1.50

Sturridge 3.75

RVP 2.25

Dzeko 2.50

Messi 2.25

If you link me that site i can do it mate, appreciate the help though.

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Haha.

£3 bet wins me £18.69

£2 bet wins me £37.38

Thats if RVP and Lukaku come through. Guess i'll just let it ride :D

Thanks for the help Gills :thup:

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Bit of a way off :( np though mate, I'm in a similar situation with the dead heats, just didn't want you whacking a load on to cover yourself.

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Yep its cool, just appreciate the heads up - logical in hindsight but I just looked at the potential payout and saw $$$, chose to believe it. :D

Definitely glad I didnt cover those bets!

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Germany ruining my great run :(

Still have them in an accumulator though so still need them to qualify :p

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****ing Germans costing me £200. They had about 50 chances to win that ffs!

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Bookies just cleaned up on that one :(

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I had Pogba, Ozil and Hazard as an AGS treble, as you'll probably know.

**** that Ozil in ET does not count - he did score anytime, afterall.

If Hazard scores tomorrow then I'm gonna get onto Paddy live chat and badger them until I get something out of them :D

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What chops said. It says 90mins only on the site. They'll just copy and paste some t&cs.

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Need some help with some betting maths please gang.

Have two 'top nation scorer' accumulators that are doing well but with one or two bogeys each. I have bolded the ones marked as wins and underlined the ones im waiting on. Both are the same but the second has Lukaku (:()

Neymar, Ronaldo, Sturridge, Van Persie, Dzeko, Messi

£3 bet = £448.51

Neymar, Ronaldo, Sturridge, Van Persie, Dzeko, Messi, Lukaku

£2 bet = £897.01

You can say Neymar and Messi are pretty certain to win for their nations. That means that i've two issues:

Holland Main issue is Robben really posing a problem. Should I place a biggish bet on Robben?

Belgium Lukaku is looking awful, but fortunately the 4 goals scored by Belgium so far have all been by different people. Still a chance he comes in with a goal or two against the USA. Cant find the lay market on betfair currently for the price.

So any thoughts much appreciated. I'd love to let these ride but would be equally gutted if they both lost and I came out with nothing.

I'm on the same bets. Just waiting on Lukaku

Not sure he's even going to play though. He wasn't happy when Wilmots took him off. And he didn't do much in the first 2 games.

Hopefully he starts and wants to prove the manager wrong

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I just had an email from TitanBet saying if I like them on Facebook then send a message with my username, they will give me a free £5 bet. I obviously do this and log in to see I have £17.01 credit in my account :confused:

I've only ever placed one bet with TitanBet (the enhanced offer they had for new member in the Argentina v Bosnia match at the start of the tournement) and that bet won with the funds having long been transferred back into my bank account, so I'm puzzled where this £17..01 has come from.

Anyways, I've put it all on Messi FGS tonight :thup:

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Will be some really tasty MM bets in the quarter finals. Looking forward to it!

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USA 16/5 to win tonight. Bookies have underestimated them again.

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Soo...do I lay my entire stake on Argentina to win this or just part of it? :D

Lost all my faith in them, can't take another match like that.

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Fellaini should be 17/1, but is 20/1 at willhill. They've blocked Norwegian accounts, but you should get on if you can

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My bet on Chile was voided because of bet365's 'out on pens' offer :cool:.

So what do I put my refunded £5 on then lads?

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Stupid Wondolowski missing the sitter that wouldnt have counted because of that bent linesman.

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Well 0-0 ruined my MM bets. Then typically they score after 2 mins of extra time.

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Ironic how they're going on about poor defending and great attacking play when there's been so many low scoring games.

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William Hill announce record takings during Germany v Algeria; £4m online, £2.1m in play, 97% profit. "A fantastic result."

And the ****ers ban/limit you as soon as you start making a few thousand :D

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97% profit. Way to rub it in to everyone that they were all wrong on Germany Vs Algeria :D

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I did lose some money on that game. But I did make more on an accumulator involving that game than I lost. :thup:

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Ooh, nice surprise. Got my stake back on Hazard AGS against USA on 365 and a random free bet on Paddy Power.

Theres an outbreak of flu in the Germany squad, 7 players affected only know Hummels and Kramer are affected dont know who else has been affected so they're surely not going to be at full strength. France still 2/1 to win.

What shall I use that free bet on? Kompany, Vertonghen or Van Buyten to score first vs Argentina at 40/1. Your choice.

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Columbia at 12/1 to win the tournament is extremely tempting

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I'm not sure if this is pure luck as I can't find anywhere that actually records the stats but I've been betting on goal kicks in the opening 10 minutes of a game. It's normally 8/15, 4/7 or 1/2 for over 1.5 and it's nearly always come in. Pop shots from miles whilst teams settle in, ambitious balls long, defenders letting balls ran out etc. I think it may be luck but it was betting £20 singles and winning like £15 odd a time then started doing doubles in the group and they were winning. Had a double the other day for the two 1/4 finals between Argentina and Belgium games and they both come in at 1.25. Not really a huge money maker but I must have bet on this about 25 times and I have lost once. I've put it on for all four quarter finals at 4.3 or something. Will probs not be one gk in the whole time but I'm just curious to see how it pans out and whether I've been lucky or not. I'm guessing so.

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Bet365

They do ten minute gks/cards/corners throughout (though you can't double/treble them up) and I've noticed it's pretty hit and miss with gk's throughout when it settles down but it seems to always come in first 10. I've looked on Google and bbc live text commentary but couldn't find a breakdown of gk's anywhere

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I had a look on the Argentina one from the other day and it didn't mention the two goal kicks that happened. Might start keeping an eye on it if they do similar stuff for live games next season.

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The odds on the quarter final matches for the MM bets are literally amazing right now - can pretty much take your pick of the games and teams!

France 2.87/Germany 2.80 - BTTS 1.83

Brazil 1.83/Colombia 4.75 - BTTS 2.0

Argentina 2.20/Belgium 3.75 - BTTS 2.0

Holland 1.53/Costa Rica 7.50 - BTTS 2.20

So every single game has something at least 2.0+ in it. :thup:

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i've gone MM of Germany, Brazil, Argentina.

i guess after the glut of draws in the last round it could well happen again as they will probably cagey affairs.

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I really like Colombia at 21/5 tonight. I can't work out whether the odds will get even bigger nearer kick off though.

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So just to confirm...if I wanted to do a Minnow Method bet with four teams I'd be staking on 16 four-fold bets and nothing else?

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