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World Cup Betting Thread - with as much discussion as possible!

gillsminnow

By gillsminnow,
in 2014 World Cup Forum

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gillsminnow

gillsminnow

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Need some help with some betting maths please gang.

Have two 'top nation scorer' accumulators that are doing well but with one or two bogeys each. I have bolded the ones marked as wins and underlined the ones im waiting on. Both are the same but the second has Lukaku (:()

Neymar, Ronaldo, Sturridge, Van Persie, Dzeko, Messi

£3 bet = £448.51

Neymar, Ronaldo, Sturridge, Van Persie, Dzeko, Messi, Lukaku

£2 bet = £897.01

You can say Neymar and Messi are pretty certain to win for their nations. That means that i've two issues:

Holland Main issue is Robben really posing a problem. Should I place a biggish bet on Robben?

Belgium Lukaku is looking awful, but fortunately the 4 goals scored by Belgium so far have all been by different people. Still a chance he comes in with a goal or two against the USA. Cant find the lay market on betfair currently for the price.

So any thoughts much appreciated. I'd love to let these ride but would be equally gutted if they both lost and I came out with nothing.

Check the actual returns if you haven't already mate. Dzeko is a dead heat of 4, Sturridge is a dead heat of 2 and Ronaldo is a dead heat of 3.

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SSC

SSC

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Check the actual returns if you haven't already mate. Dzeko is a dead heat of 4, Sturridge is a dead heat of 2 and Ronaldo is a dead heat of 3.

I was wondering about that, only shows me the 'Potential Returns', not sure how to see actual returns?

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Vegard_R

Vegard_R

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Have a free £10 in play bet with PP any ideas who to pick as a fgs? Fancy a speculative pop.

Höwedes probably the best long shot out there.

Edit: Noticed he's only 14/1 at paddy. Not good enough

Slimani at 11/1 is decent

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SSC

SSC

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Was with Paddy Power. Odd were:

Lukaku 3.00

Neymar 2.10

Ronaldo 1.50

Sturridge 3.75

RVP 2.25

Dzeko 2.50

Messi 2.25

If you link me that site i can do it mate, appreciate the help though.

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SSC

SSC

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Yep its cool, just appreciate the heads up - logical in hindsight but I just looked at the potential payout and saw $$$, chose to believe it. :D

Definitely glad I didnt cover those bets!

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JD nawrat

JD nawrat

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I had Pogba, Ozil and Hazard as an AGS treble, as you'll probably know.

**** that Ozil in ET does not count - he did score anytime, afterall.

If Hazard scores tomorrow then I'm gonna get onto Paddy live chat and badger them until I get something out of them :D

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Lebowski25

Lebowski25

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Need some help with some betting maths please gang.

Have two 'top nation scorer' accumulators that are doing well but with one or two bogeys each. I have bolded the ones marked as wins and underlined the ones im waiting on. Both are the same but the second has Lukaku (:()

Neymar, Ronaldo, Sturridge, Van Persie, Dzeko, Messi

£3 bet = £448.51

Neymar, Ronaldo, Sturridge, Van Persie, Dzeko, Messi, Lukaku

£2 bet = £897.01

You can say Neymar and Messi are pretty certain to win for their nations. That means that i've two issues:

Holland Main issue is Robben really posing a problem. Should I place a biggish bet on Robben?

Belgium Lukaku is looking awful, but fortunately the 4 goals scored by Belgium so far have all been by different people. Still a chance he comes in with a goal or two against the USA. Cant find the lay market on betfair currently for the price.

So any thoughts much appreciated. I'd love to let these ride but would be equally gutted if they both lost and I came out with nothing.

I'm on the same bets. Just waiting on Lukaku

Not sure he's even going to play though. He wasn't happy when Wilmots took him off. And he didn't do much in the first 2 games.

Hopefully he starts and wants to prove the manager wrong

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blueglobefootball123

blueglobefootball123

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I just had an email from TitanBet saying if I like them on Facebook then send a message with my username, they will give me a free £5 bet. I obviously do this and log in to see I have £17.01 credit in my account :confused:

I've only ever placed one bet with TitanBet (the enhanced offer they had for new member in the Argentina v Bosnia match at the start of the tournement) and that bet won with the funds having long been transferred back into my bank account, so I'm puzzled where this £17..01 has come from.

Anyways, I've put it all on Messi FGS tonight :thup:

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av3ry

av3ry

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Ooh, nice surprise. Got my stake back on Hazard AGS against USA on 365 and a random free bet on Paddy Power.

Theres an outbreak of flu in the Germany squad, 7 players affected only know Hummels and Kramer are affected dont know who else has been affected so they're surely not going to be at full strength. France still 2/1 to win.

What shall I use that free bet on? Kompany, Vertonghen or Van Buyten to score first vs Argentina at 40/1. Your choice.

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chopra_hill

chopra_hill

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I'm not sure if this is pure luck as I can't find anywhere that actually records the stats but I've been betting on goal kicks in the opening 10 minutes of a game. It's normally 8/15, 4/7 or 1/2 for over 1.5 and it's nearly always come in. Pop shots from miles whilst teams settle in, ambitious balls long, defenders letting balls ran out etc. I think it may be luck but it was betting £20 singles and winning like £15 odd a time then started doing doubles in the group and they were winning. Had a double the other day for the two 1/4 finals between Argentina and Belgium games and they both come in at 1.25. Not really a huge money maker but I must have bet on this about 25 times and I have lost once. I've put it on for all four quarter finals at 4.3 or something. Will probs not be one gk in the whole time but I'm just curious to see how it pans out and whether I've been lucky or not. I'm guessing so.

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chopra_hill

chopra_hill

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Bet365

They do ten minute gks/cards/corners throughout (though you can't double/treble them up) and I've noticed it's pretty hit and miss with gk's throughout when it settles down but it seems to always come in first 10. I've looked on Google and bbc live text commentary but couldn't find a breakdown of gk's anywhere

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gillsminnow

gillsminnow

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The odds on the quarter final matches for the MM bets are literally amazing right now - can pretty much take your pick of the games and teams!

France 2.87/Germany 2.80 - BTTS 1.83

Brazil 1.83/Colombia 4.75 - BTTS 2.0

Argentina 2.20/Belgium 3.75 - BTTS 2.0

Holland 1.53/Costa Rica 7.50 - BTTS 2.20

So every single game has something at least 2.0+ in it. :thup:

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