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World Cup Betting Thread - with as much discussion as possible!

gillsminnow

By gillsminnow,
in 2014 World Cup Forum

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Lermon

Lermon

Posted
Posted

Looking at tomorrow.

I think Russia are quite a capable defensive unit, other than the lapse the keeper had. And Belgium are still fairly unconvincing despite their comeback. So I reckon an Asian handicap of +0.5 on Russia.

Portugal vs USA. I think can go either way. Therefore I think a Both teams to score might be a better one.

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Lermon

Lermon

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Had Argentina to win -1 for £20 and -2 for £10, lost, tried to gain something back by backing the draw at 0-0 for £14 (to earn £16) in the 88th minute (fml)

Then had £10 on Germany -1/Bosnia to win. Also fml

Terrible, terrible day so far.

Yeah they happen. Italy fked me up yesterday.

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Lermon

Lermon

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Belgium-Russia both teams NOT to score might be a good one, or U2.5 gls. As both have strengths in their defence. You might get Russia a narrow win, you might get Belgium a narrow win. But never know on the day may go 2-1.

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seanydude

seanydude

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You know you're a betting addict when you're considering buying a new phone just because you're without internet for a week (and no betting site loads on your ****** current phone)

Have a broken ankle, otherwise I'd go down to an actual bookie.

Could you not get a cheap PAYG dongle? I think 3 do them

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toon_84

toon_84

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You know you're a betting addict when you're considering buying a new phone just because you're without internet for a week (and no betting site loads on your ****** current phone)

Have a broken ankle, otherwise I'd go down to an actual bookie.

can you not tether your phone to your laptop/pc?

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Lermon

Lermon

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Belgium-Russia both teams NOT to score might be a good one, or U2.5 gls. As both have strengths in their defence. You might get Russia a narrow win, you might get Belgium a narrow win. But never know on the day may go 2-1.

I called it. I was gutted my handicap bet failed to pull off though. Russia are flipping idiots, fluffed all their chances relying on their 0-0 to win it. But they were a nice organised defensive unit. Playing for 0-0 is always suicide.

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ShyBaldBuddhist

ShyBaldBuddhist

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Tried my first minnows method bet for a few games in the groups and it looks quite promising. If Belgium beat Russia and both score I'll have 7/8 selections in. Only went for small stakes of 25p trebles and four timers for overall stake of £12 but should be a decent return as I can cash in now for £60+. Looks quite promising and think I will probably use it quite a bit on games next season.

Should have cashed in :D Paid £55.74 in the end for 6/8 results. Would have been higher but it was placed very early and some of the odds drifted quite a lot.

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ShyBaldBuddhist

ShyBaldBuddhist

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Had a treble on Colombia, France and Belgium to win their groups at 4/1. Can cash in now and lose around 8% of what it will return if I just let it ride and it comes in. I should just let it play out right? Can anyone see any of these teams not winning their groups from here? I always get slightly anxious if it's a decent sized bet and looking to see what other people would do from here.

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Lermon

Lermon

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A few mug bets I done.

Netherlands/Chile dual forecast to qualify, Colombia/Japan dual forecast, Germany/Ghana SFC- @250/1

Honduras 1 pt(2/1), Iran 1 pt(2/1), Australia 0 pt(6/4) and Brazil 9 pt(11/10)-@47/1, or trebles from 4.

Top Team gs- Dempsey, Giroud, Neymar, Xhaka. Doubles from 4.

Top Team gs- Vargas, Gyan, Yaya Toure,Drmic. Doubles from 4.

And Cameroon/Australia/Costa Rica/Honduras/Iran to finish bottom@12/1

Wasn't a bad pre-tournament attempt. I got Holland/Chile dual forecast that I'm quite chuffed about. The rest, to finish bottom I should have listened to the warning about Costa Rica more.

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av3ry

av3ry

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What do you lot think of Algeria? Russia dont look good at all and Algeria will be on a high after beating Korea, who Russia struggled to a draw against. Think Algeria can beat Russia (11/4)?

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Lermon

Lermon

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I didn't see Algeria vs South Korea. But Russia are quite an impressive defensive unit, they just struggle finding the net. So it's just whether Algeria can get past Russian's defence, or whether Russia can find the net past Algeria's comparitively weak defence.

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Lermon

Lermon

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^ interesting.

I have decided to bet today:

Brazil 2-0 as Cameroon are crap.

And Mexico-Croatia, risky one possibly but both teams not to score. As Mexico are quite light scorers, it's just if their urgency of the last chance to qualify transforms into anything which I'm gambling no.

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SSC

SSC

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It amazes me the depth of thought and research that's gone into this thread. If we can take this into the betting thread for the regular season it would be brilliant. Better than the lists of accumilator near miss stories :D

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Jonno-Blood

Jonno-Blood

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What you gone with?

Chile, Croatia, Costa Rica, Colombia and Ivory Coast. Not many games about with BTTS near evens so unfortunately a few of my 32 lines do return a loss but I think that's made up for by the odds on some of the teams which I think represent some real value.

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JD nawrat

JD nawrat

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Sticking some bets on for the first time this WC. :thup:

QQ re: Minnow Method - you say on the first page that it's not economically viable for you to take selections under evens, but is it common to find a match result and BTTS at over evens?

For example - Chile to beat the Netherlands @ 2.70 but BTTS @ 1.61. Croatia to beat Mexico @ 2.80 but BTTS @ 1.91. Four lines, total stake of 5.00, potential returns of 25.40.

I like the returns/odds and I'll stick this bet on regardless. I was just wondering though if you find it at all common for over evens on BTTS and a match result over evens?

e: By contrast, the Brazil game has odds @ 2.62 on BTTS but unless I go Cameroon to win (I'm not braindead) then it's very low @ 1.14 for Brazil.

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Jonno-Blood

Jonno-Blood

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Sticking some bets on for the first time this WC. :thup:

QQ re: Minnow Method - you say on the first page that it's not economically viable for you to take selections under evens, but is it common to find a match result and BTTS at over evens?

For example - Chile to beat the Netherlands @ 2.70 but BTTS @ 1.61. Croatia to beat Mexico @ 2.80 but BTTS @ 1.91. Four lines, total stake of 5.00, potential returns of 25.40.

I like the returns/odds and I'll stick this bet on regardless. I was just wondering though if you find it at all common for over evens on BTTS and a match result over evens?

e: By contrast, the Brazil game has odds @ 2.62 on BTTS but unless I go Cameroon to win (I'm not braindead) then it's very low @ 1.14 for Brazil.

I think the way the WC has gone (on course for a new goals record) it has killed all the value in the BTTS market which isn't good for the MM. I think it'll look better once we get to the English season because there are always a load of BTTS at evens or higher on any given weekend.

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gillsminnow

gillsminnow

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Sticking some bets on for the first time this WC. :thup:

QQ re: Minnow Method - you say on the first page that it's not economically viable for you to take selections under evens, but is it common to find a match result and BTTS at over evens?

For example - Chile to beat the Netherlands @ 2.70 but BTTS @ 1.61. Croatia to beat Mexico @ 2.80 but BTTS @ 1.91. Four lines, total stake of 5.00, potential returns of 25.40.

I like the returns/odds and I'll stick this bet on regardless. I was just wondering though if you find it at all common for over evens on BTTS and a match result over evens?

e: By contrast, the Brazil game has odds @ 2.62 on BTTS but unless I go Cameroon to win (I'm not braindead) then it's very low @ 1.14 for Brazil.

If both selections (the win and btts) total 4+ then it's alright. Ideally you want both at evens or above but yes it's not always the case Chile and BTTS (2.7 + 1.61 = 4.31) and is one of my selections also.

Brazil at 1.14 would be a dire selection for the MM.

The only time you NEVER make a selection for the MM is when BOTH the team to win and BTTS are less than 2.0 (England @ 1.85 and BTTS at 1.80 for example) as it's not beneficial as you'd need BOTH of those selections to come in as one selection would not cover the other one.

With the MM you're aiming to catchnet as many 2.0+ odds selections as possible.

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JD nawrat

JD nawrat

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Anyway, other bets I've stuck on...

Alexis Sanchez FGS & Chile 2-1 @ 61.00

Sanchez will be able to outpace the Netherlands defence, should be able to get into good scoring positions. Chile's defence looked good against Spain (although perhaps a case of Spain's attack being rubbish) and Australia so I think they can do a decent job of keeping out the Netherlands. The Netherlands' defence also doesn't seem that great going on the basis of the match v Australia and I fancy Chile to take the win.

It could be a high scoring game so I've stuck it in an Over 2.5 fourfold (all four games @ Over 2.5). Cameroon can't really defend so I fancy Brazil to tear them to pieces, could easily turn into a rout. As for Mexico/Croatia - both teams are going to be going for the win so it should be an open game. Mexico don't have the best finishers and goals aren't a strongpoint of theirs so I fancy Croatia to win, both teams scoring on the cards though and over 2.5 fairly decent shout imo. I've also stuck Australia and Spain in to make it a fourfold. I'm a little bit skeptical of this one tbh, not sure it was wise to lump it into the treble, but Australia look decent going forward and Spain might actually try to do something this tournament, even if it means nothing (it's only because it means nothing that I'm skeptical). Can see both teams nabbing a goal, anyway.

Four games Over 2.5 @ 7.98 :thup:

Also stuck on a really, really speculative lucky 15 of Koke, Clasie, Paulinho and Perisic for FGS with a measly £1.65 stake. Returns over 6k :lol: Not got any expectations on this one, I just fancied something for fun. Perisic probably the only player I'd back to actually score today.

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gillsminnow

gillsminnow

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Chile, Croatia, Costa Rica, Colombia and Ivory Coast. Not many games about with BTTS near evens so unfortunately a few of my 32 lines do return a loss but I think that's made up for by the odds on some of the teams which I think represent some real value.

I like the majority of those, good luck :thup:

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JD nawrat

JD nawrat

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Cheers Jonno and Gills :thup: I steered well clear of Brazil and Spain's games today because there's no value at all in either of 'em to win and I can't see any upsets there.

I like the thinking behind the method, have been wanting to try it for a while but only just getting round to it now. :)

e:

I think the way the WC has gone (on course for a new goals record) it has killed all the value in the BTTS market which isn't good for the MM.

I think you're right with this btw (unfortunately :D). Maybe see the BTTS market (and over 2.5 market which has taken a dip) get a boost in the knockouts again where we tend to get cagier affairs, especially from evenly matched sides. But I wouldn't expect it to rise tbh.

Just saw Clasie isn't starting :lol: Forgot to check out line-ups before placing the bet. :o Good job it was just a highly speculative thing then. :D

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Emersonlfc

Emersonlfc

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It amazes me the depth of thought and research that's gone into this thread. If we can take this into the betting thread for the regular season it would be brilliant. Better than the lists of accumilator near miss stories :D

The betting thread has improved rapidly of late tbf.

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JD nawrat

JD nawrat

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Ah well, that's probably why I haven't been betting recently :D

Only got two bets still alive now - two legs of my L15 (Perisic FGS and Paulinho FGS) and I stuck two quid on Neymar FGS Brazil to win 3-1 @ 34.00.

e: Oh forgot about my second half of the MM. Croatia 2-1 Perisic FGS would be lovely :lol: Wouldn't net me a great deal but I'd appreciate it all the same :D

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Bhoy

Bhoy

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Tried the MM with Holland, Spain and Mexico today. Obviously 4/6 selections coming up. £14 (8x£1.75) stake returned £30, would obviously have been more if I didn't choose Spain at odds of 4/9 but was interested in what it would return. I also used £5 to cover clean sheets for the teams I was opposing, so if one of the three teams didn't score I'd claw something back so with pretty much every result covered a total stake of £19 returned £30 which is not too bad imo, just above 50% return. Would obviously have been better if I went with the recommended odds of roughly evens for both. WP Minnow, I really like this. :thup:

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