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gillsminnow

World Cup Betting Thread - with as much discussion as possible!

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Looking at tomorrow.

I think Russia are quite a capable defensive unit, other than the lapse the keeper had. And Belgium are still fairly unconvincing despite their comeback. So I reckon an Asian handicap of +0.5 on Russia.

Portugal vs USA. I think can go either way. Therefore I think a Both teams to score might be a better one.

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Had Argentina to win -1 for £20 and -2 for £10, lost, tried to gain something back by backing the draw at 0-0 for £14 (to earn £16) in the 88th minute (fml)

Then had £10 on Germany -1/Bosnia to win. Also fml

Terrible, terrible day so far.

Yeah they happen. Italy fked me up yesterday.

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Belgium-Russia both teams NOT to score might be a good one, or U2.5 gls. As both have strengths in their defence. You might get Russia a narrow win, you might get Belgium a narrow win. But never know on the day may go 2-1.

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I'll take slight consolation from the fact that had my Argentina bets won, I'd more than likely have put it all on Germany to win

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Terrible that Argentina scored, I'd be another £100 up had they not scored. Argie ********.

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Edin Dzeko is an absolute wankstain. The dickhead didn't even look like he cared that he lost my bet (and also knocked Bosnia out).

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Got mine from BetBright almost instantly. (£5 everytime Argentina win,£5 everytime Messi scores)

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You know you're a betting addict when you're considering buying a new phone just because you're without internet for a week (and no betting site loads on your ****** current phone)

Have a broken ankle, otherwise I'd go down to an actual bookie.

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You know you're a betting addict when you're considering buying a new phone just because you're without internet for a week (and no betting site loads on your ****** current phone)

Have a broken ankle, otherwise I'd go down to an actual bookie.

Could you not get a cheap PAYG dongle? I think 3 do them

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You know you're a betting addict when you're considering buying a new phone just because you're without internet for a week (and no betting site loads on your ****** current phone)

Have a broken ankle, otherwise I'd go down to an actual bookie.

can you not tether your phone to your laptop/pc?

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Belgium are now 5/4 and drifting!

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Belgium-Russia both teams NOT to score might be a good one, or U2.5 gls. As both have strengths in their defence. You might get Russia a narrow win, you might get Belgium a narrow win. But never know on the day may go 2-1.

I called it. I was gutted my handicap bet failed to pull off though. Russia are flipping idiots, fluffed all their chances relying on their 0-0 to win it. But they were a nice organised defensive unit. Playing for 0-0 is always suicide.

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Tried my first minnows method bet for a few games in the groups and it looks quite promising. If Belgium beat Russia and both score I'll have 7/8 selections in. Only went for small stakes of 25p trebles and four timers for overall stake of £12 but should be a decent return as I can cash in now for £60+. Looks quite promising and think I will probably use it quite a bit on games next season.

Should have cashed in :D Paid £55.74 in the end for 6/8 results. Would have been higher but it was placed very early and some of the odds drifted quite a lot.

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Ran so hot betting on the World Cup until yesterday. I had Dzeko first and Gyan last. Christ what a tilting day that was.

I had Dempsey last now. fml

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the odds on Australia to beat spain are only 6/1

just put a whole single pound, i'm still up on the pre tournament friendlies.

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Balance is at £0 :( But profit is well over £600, so I think I'm just about done for the tournament barring free bets.

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Had a treble on Colombia, France and Belgium to win their groups at 4/1. Can cash in now and lose around 8% of what it will return if I just let it ride and it comes in. I should just let it play out right? Can anyone see any of these teams not winning their groups from here? I always get slightly anxious if it's a decent sized bet and looking to see what other people would do from here.

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http://imgur.com/a/47Fue#2 - might be of use to people like you SBB.

Colombia 1st on their graph covers almost all combinations of results, France apparently have 1st all but sealed (every combination is them in 1st) and Belgium are pretty likely to have 1st.

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A few mug bets I done.

Netherlands/Chile dual forecast to qualify, Colombia/Japan dual forecast, Germany/Ghana SFC- @250/1

Honduras 1 pt(2/1), Iran 1 pt(2/1), Australia 0 pt(6/4) and Brazil 9 pt(11/10)-@47/1, or trebles from 4.

Top Team gs- Dempsey, Giroud, Neymar, Xhaka. Doubles from 4.

Top Team gs- Vargas, Gyan, Yaya Toure,Drmic. Doubles from 4.

And Cameroon/Australia/Costa Rica/Honduras/Iran to finish bottom@12/1

Wasn't a bad pre-tournament attempt. I got Holland/Chile dual forecast that I'm quite chuffed about. The rest, to finish bottom I should have listened to the warning about Costa Rica more.

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http://imgur.com/a/47Fue#2 - might be of use to people like you SBB.

Colombia 1st on their graph covers almost all combinations of results, France apparently have 1st all but sealed (every combination is them in 1st) and Belgium are pretty likely to have 1st.

that's a good graph.

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can't see any bets today. Think I might copy SBB and look at doing the final standings.

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What do you lot think of Algeria? Russia dont look good at all and Algeria will be on a high after beating Korea, who Russia struggled to a draw against. Think Algeria can beat Russia (11/4)?

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I didn't see Algeria vs South Korea. But Russia are quite an impressive defensive unit, they just struggle finding the net. So it's just whether Algeria can get past Russian's defence, or whether Russia can find the net past Algeria's comparitively weak defence.

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Using that table above I'm sure its possible to beat the bookies but needs a brain like Gillsminnow to do it. It's covering scorelines somehow.

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Well I'm now desperate to see Greece win 3-0 and Japan win 2-1 in their final games just so we can see them draw lots :D

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Hoping Australia get panned tonight by Spain so I can get a £50 freebie for them conceding the most goals in the group stage :D that and I have them/Honduras singles and double for 0 points which would be nice if it came in.

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Betfair sportsbook have a market which,if I've read it right,get you a winning bet if the scoreline you predict happens at any point in the game.

Obv 0-0 isn't there but everything else is.

Could be a nice market to bet on that.

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^ interesting.

I have decided to bet today:

Brazil 2-0 as Cameroon are crap.

And Mexico-Croatia, risky one possibly but both teams not to score. As Mexico are quite light scorers, it's just if their urgency of the last chance to qualify transforms into anything which I'm gambling no.

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Anyone do the MM for the second round of games? Any luck?

I'm considering doing it for this last round of games as teams may have to attack and leave gaps etc.

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It amazes me the depth of thought and research that's gone into this thread. If we can take this into the betting thread for the regular season it would be brilliant. Better than the lists of accumilator near miss stories :D

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Trying my very first Minnow Method bet over today and tomorrow, fingers crossed!

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What you gone with?

Chile, Croatia, Costa Rica, Colombia and Ivory Coast. Not many games about with BTTS near evens so unfortunately a few of my 32 lines do return a loss but I think that's made up for by the odds on some of the teams which I think represent some real value.

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Sticking some bets on for the first time this WC. :thup:

QQ re: Minnow Method - you say on the first page that it's not economically viable for you to take selections under evens, but is it common to find a match result and BTTS at over evens?

For example - Chile to beat the Netherlands @ 2.70 but BTTS @ 1.61. Croatia to beat Mexico @ 2.80 but BTTS @ 1.91. Four lines, total stake of 5.00, potential returns of 25.40.

I like the returns/odds and I'll stick this bet on regardless. I was just wondering though if you find it at all common for over evens on BTTS and a match result over evens?

e: By contrast, the Brazil game has odds @ 2.62 on BTTS but unless I go Cameroon to win (I'm not braindead) then it's very low @ 1.14 for Brazil.

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Sticking some bets on for the first time this WC. :thup:

QQ re: Minnow Method - you say on the first page that it's not economically viable for you to take selections under evens, but is it common to find a match result and BTTS at over evens?

For example - Chile to beat the Netherlands @ 2.70 but BTTS @ 1.61. Croatia to beat Mexico @ 2.80 but BTTS @ 1.91. Four lines, total stake of 5.00, potential returns of 25.40.

I like the returns/odds and I'll stick this bet on regardless. I was just wondering though if you find it at all common for over evens on BTTS and a match result over evens?

e: By contrast, the Brazil game has odds @ 2.62 on BTTS but unless I go Cameroon to win (I'm not braindead) then it's very low @ 1.14 for Brazil.

I think the way the WC has gone (on course for a new goals record) it has killed all the value in the BTTS market which isn't good for the MM. I think it'll look better once we get to the English season because there are always a load of BTTS at evens or higher on any given weekend.

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Sticking some bets on for the first time this WC. :thup:

QQ re: Minnow Method - you say on the first page that it's not economically viable for you to take selections under evens, but is it common to find a match result and BTTS at over evens?

For example - Chile to beat the Netherlands @ 2.70 but BTTS @ 1.61. Croatia to beat Mexico @ 2.80 but BTTS @ 1.91. Four lines, total stake of 5.00, potential returns of 25.40.

I like the returns/odds and I'll stick this bet on regardless. I was just wondering though if you find it at all common for over evens on BTTS and a match result over evens?

e: By contrast, the Brazil game has odds @ 2.62 on BTTS but unless I go Cameroon to win (I'm not braindead) then it's very low @ 1.14 for Brazil.

If both selections (the win and btts) total 4+ then it's alright. Ideally you want both at evens or above but yes it's not always the case Chile and BTTS (2.7 + 1.61 = 4.31) and is one of my selections also.

Brazil at 1.14 would be a dire selection for the MM.

The only time you NEVER make a selection for the MM is when BOTH the team to win and BTTS are less than 2.0 (England @ 1.85 and BTTS at 1.80 for example) as it's not beneficial as you'd need BOTH of those selections to come in as one selection would not cover the other one.

With the MM you're aiming to catchnet as many 2.0+ odds selections as possible.

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To answer your other question the leagues where you get a lot of 2.0+ BTTS are Italy, France, Greece, Argentina. English leagues are usually around 1.8ish

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Anyway, other bets I've stuck on...

Alexis Sanchez FGS & Chile 2-1 @ 61.00

Sanchez will be able to outpace the Netherlands defence, should be able to get into good scoring positions. Chile's defence looked good against Spain (although perhaps a case of Spain's attack being rubbish) and Australia so I think they can do a decent job of keeping out the Netherlands. The Netherlands' defence also doesn't seem that great going on the basis of the match v Australia and I fancy Chile to take the win.

It could be a high scoring game so I've stuck it in an Over 2.5 fourfold (all four games @ Over 2.5). Cameroon can't really defend so I fancy Brazil to tear them to pieces, could easily turn into a rout. As for Mexico/Croatia - both teams are going to be going for the win so it should be an open game. Mexico don't have the best finishers and goals aren't a strongpoint of theirs so I fancy Croatia to win, both teams scoring on the cards though and over 2.5 fairly decent shout imo. I've also stuck Australia and Spain in to make it a fourfold. I'm a little bit skeptical of this one tbh, not sure it was wise to lump it into the treble, but Australia look decent going forward and Spain might actually try to do something this tournament, even if it means nothing (it's only because it means nothing that I'm skeptical). Can see both teams nabbing a goal, anyway.

Four games Over 2.5 @ 7.98 :thup:

Also stuck on a really, really speculative lucky 15 of Koke, Clasie, Paulinho and Perisic for FGS with a measly £1.65 stake. Returns over 6k :lol: Not got any expectations on this one, I just fancied something for fun. Perisic probably the only player I'd back to actually score today.

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Chile, Croatia, Costa Rica, Colombia and Ivory Coast. Not many games about with BTTS near evens so unfortunately a few of my 32 lines do return a loss but I think that's made up for by the odds on some of the teams which I think represent some real value.

I like the majority of those, good luck :thup:

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Cheers Jonno and Gills :thup: I steered well clear of Brazil and Spain's games today because there's no value at all in either of 'em to win and I can't see any upsets there.

I like the thinking behind the method, have been wanting to try it for a while but only just getting round to it now. :)

e:

I think the way the WC has gone (on course for a new goals record) it has killed all the value in the BTTS market which isn't good for the MM.

I think you're right with this btw (unfortunately :D). Maybe see the BTTS market (and over 2.5 market which has taken a dip) get a boost in the knockouts again where we tend to get cagier affairs, especially from evenly matched sides. But I wouldn't expect it to rise tbh.

Just saw Clasie isn't starting :lol: Forgot to check out line-ups before placing the bet. :o Good job it was just a highly speculative thing then. :D

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It amazes me the depth of thought and research that's gone into this thread. If we can take this into the betting thread for the regular season it would be brilliant. Better than the lists of accumilator near miss stories :D

The betting thread has improved rapidly of late tbf.

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Ah well, that's probably why I haven't been betting recently :D

Only got two bets still alive now - two legs of my L15 (Perisic FGS and Paulinho FGS) and I stuck two quid on Neymar FGS Brazil to win 3-1 @ 34.00.

e: Oh forgot about my second half of the MM. Croatia 2-1 Perisic FGS would be lovely :lol: Wouldn't net me a great deal but I'd appreciate it all the same :D

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Tried the MM with Holland, Spain and Mexico today. Obviously 4/6 selections coming up. £14 (8x£1.75) stake returned £30, would obviously have been more if I didn't choose Spain at odds of 4/9 but was interested in what it would return. I also used £5 to cover clean sheets for the teams I was opposing, so if one of the three teams didn't score I'd claw something back so with pretty much every result covered a total stake of £19 returned £30 which is not too bad imo, just above 50% return. Would obviously have been better if I went with the recommended odds of roughly evens for both. WP Minnow, I really like this. :thup:

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Nice work! :cool:

Looking forward to the new season to see the results there. Knockout stages of the WC probably be a bit tougher but the odds will be nicer.

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