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Football Manager 2014 - Full Game Feedback/Tilbakemelding 14.1.3


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Is the too many shots issue confined to the top leagues, I wonder? I did see a higher than normal shot count when I played half a season at Sunderland, whereas my saves at Stirling and Lowestoft have much more realistic figures for shots on goal.

For example, my last game at Lowestoft (and my own shot attempts in this example is slightly higher than normal due to the tactic I played for this game, it's normally between 8-12 attempts per game)...

As much as Chelsea were dominant, 40 attempts on goal is a bit excessive, and they only won 2-0 (So the AI sometimes can't score either!).

I realise that's only two snapshots, but they are fairly consistent with each save.

Is it because of quicker, better players that more shots on goal are peppered in during a game, whereas the 'diddy' players struggle to get the ball forward more, hence not as many shots? It's a tricky one for the Devs to sort, I'd imagine, as there will be various negative knock on effects if it's tinkered with too much.

40 shots I've not managed that but then I'm in the lower leagues at the moment, it’s certainly an interesting idea that it could be an issue in top flight games. Looking at real life Chelsea took Norwich to the cleaners at the weekend but their shot count was I think 27, if you look through the leagues on any Saturday evening the shot count average is the low to mid teens, 27 is top of the scale.

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I don't mean to be 'THAT GUY' but a quick question regarding any possible new updates, is one likely at some point in the near future? I appreciated that we cannot say for certain, or that it will be on one of x, y or z dates, but clearly I don't want to go charging into a new save if the general feeling around the forums is that by the end of the week, month or whatever else we will have a new update? On the other hand if one is extremely unlikely I will just play the game as it is for now. Could someone please politely advise....and please don't just say 'you will have to wait'

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Now that I've clocked over 100 hours on FM14, I thought I'd share my opinion of the game.

I really love the new tactics system - such a huge improvement over the old slider system. I also love the new UI. Lower league management seems to be more difficult this time round, which is a good thing because it makes it more realistic - was a bit too easy in previous games to get back-to-back promotions when you know what you're doing (used to be able to get all kinds of good quality players on loan or players who were out of contract, but this year it's not so easy to get whoever you want). I'm not sure if it was intentional or not, but either way it's made it more challenging in the lower leagues.

My only real complaints at the moment are the issues regarding transfers and the match engine. Like some other users here, I'm getting some outrageous transfer offers for players and no matter what I do I can't negotiate up to a realistic amount. It's better now (14.1.3) than it was in the previous version (It is now possible to at least negotiate higher, whereas before they just refused to pay more than 10% of a player's value, even if that player is a key player for your team!) but there's definitely still something wrong. As for buying players, I'm a bit torn - It's a lot better now that buying players takes time and longer negotiations because it makes it more realistic. No longer can I simply throw money around and expect to get whoever I want! I'm too used to being able to throw all kinds of money at clubs (when I play as a rich team, of course) and sign all the best players, so I haven't warmed up to the new way of doing it just yet. However, I'm sure I'll be fine with it once I get used to the idea of spending the time and effort needed to sign a top player now.

My complaints about the match engine are similar to what others have been saying. There is definitely something wrong with the defending in the current version, particularly with full/wing backs who often ignore wingers and allow them to get into space to put in a good cross no matter what you tell them to do (they don't seem to be closing down the space a winger has very efficiently). I've also noticed that sometimes wingers in good crossing positions tend to pass back to the midfield or sometimes even all the way back to the defenders (this doesn't happen too often though, but it's both bizarre and disturbing to see it when it does happen). Also, players are taking too many shots from well outside the area, even when you instruct the team to work the ball into the box and individually instruct players to shoot less. One other minor issue (that has been mentioned plenty of times before)

Strikers are also missing far too many easy chances. I know even the best players miss the occasional easy chance (even Messi misses good 1-on-1 chances sometimes!), but I think it's happening too frequently at the moment - A decent striker should have a conversion rate (shots:goals) of at least around 15% and the best should be into the 20s (In his record breaking 2011/12 season when he scored 73 goals in all competitions, Messi had a shots:goals conversion rate of about 24%).

But meanwhile, in my Real Madrid save... Cristiano Ronaldo has a conversion rate of 7%!!! Now, admittedly, a lot of his shots are long range (he loves his long range shots!), but even so, in 2011/12 he had a shots:goals conversion rate of around 21-22% in the league and he was taking plenty of long shots, as he always does. Benzema has a slightly more realistic conversion rate (in my save) of 15% - however that is still too low for a player of Benzema's quality, who in real life has a conversion rate in the 20-23% range.

Now, strangely (first time I've seen this in FM14), Messi actually has a conversion rate of a massive 30%! Perhaps too high even for Messi, but that's at least believable for a player of his quality. Meanwhile, Neymar has a conversion rate of a disgraceful 9% - in his last season with Santos, he had around 30% conversion. Alright, sure, his conversion for Barcelona so far is not so impressive (at around 13% at the moment), but I still think getting 9% is too low for him.

Looking at one of my other saves (the all-star Blackburn team from this thread - http://community.sigames.com/showthread.php/370921-What-exactly-have-I-paid-for-here?p=9169640), Cristiano Ronaldo has a slightly better conversion of 12%, which is still too low. Messi's conversion is just embarrassing... 9%! I've seen him miss some real sitters... Some of the strikers in the premier league do have good conversion rates at the moment, but then there are some like Daniel Sturridge with only 9% conversion.

So, yeah, hopefully there will be some improvements with the conversion rates in future patches (if it was just happening to me, it'd be a simple case of "it's your tactics", but it's happening to all the AI teams as well. Not that many strikers have a realistic conversion rate at the moment).

But other than those issues, I'm really enjoying the game :) Fantastic work, SI. Keep it up!

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Could someone please politely advise....and please don't just say 'you will have to wait'

We have no idea, there I did not say "you will have to wait".

Could be at the end of the week, could be next week, could be the start of next month, SI will not say and no one here knows.

You will have to wait. D'oh!

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I don't mean to be 'THAT GUY' but a quick question regarding any possible new updates, is one likely at some point in the near future? I appreciated that we cannot say for certain, or that it will be on one of x, y or z dates, but clearly I don't want to go charging into a new save if the general feeling around the forums is that by the end of the week, month or whatever else we will have a new update? On the other hand if one is extremely unlikely I will just play the game as it is for now. Could someone please politely advise....and please don't just say 'you will have to wait'

There was a post from PaulC just a few posts above yours:

http://community.sigames.com/showthread.php/368881-Football-Manager-2014-Full-Game-Feedback-14.1.3?p=9169747&viewfull=1#post9169747

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I have been playing since those early cm3 where Vieri used to be the shizzle. I play every year since then.

Felt disappointed with the reviews FM 14 has been getting in this forum so far but well, i throughtly enjoyed late FM13 with last update even though there were so quite a few bugs like crosses hitting the bar often, winning always the same way, and ME didn't give us enough flexibility was previous versions. However i got pretty addicted to it once i found a winning formula and played many different challenges.

Now, before buying FM14 i decided to try the demo. Was pretty shocked in the beggining with the font style, very strange and hard on the eyes. More than that was the match engine animations. It is quite different from any other version but it kind of reminds me of old fifa versions with its choppy and slide on the grass animations.

So i went for a game, Man utd against my 19s team and was quite amused how i could set a playing style already in the first match of the season. I saw a quite beautiful passing style at times. Players looked actually to be trying to do what i requested from the team. Even in the box they would prefer to pass back rather than try to shoot.

However there were a few potential gamebreaking bugs. The most annoying one was the full backs walking back against the attacking winger and not tackling. Letting Janujaj do a Messi and run all midfield with the ball. Second, Valencia did at least 3 times a "wtf" action. Gets to the line, ready to cross on the right side. The defender is left behind on his right but still, instead of crossing to the box with no one blocking him, he turns BACK to the left back and tries to pass him the ball!? maybe to try to get a corner? oh wow i laughed anyway. 3rd, the AI did way too many amazing long shots but still my keeper bounced like a cat making it look too easy. Every shot from the likes of Macheda went to the corner of the net. More often than what would be normal i wasted too many chances 1 feet from the goal line, only to shoot against defenders.

Overall i felt the ME has great potential but the huge amount of shots from both sides, the silly misses, the fullbacks performance and overall defending, like many have already said here, is what is keeping me away from buying the game.

Cheers and good work.

2dvo4rs.jpg

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But meanwhile, in my Real Madrid save... Cristiano Ronaldo has a conversion rate of 7%!!! Now, admittedly, a lot of his shots are long range (he loves his long range shots!), but even so, in 2011/12 he had a shots:goals conversion rate of around 21-22% in the league and he was taking plenty of long shots, as he always does. Benzema has a slightly more realistic conversion rate (in my save) of 15% - however that is still too low for a player of Benzema's quality, who in real life has a conversion rate in the 20-23% range.

Do you think there's a correlation between long shooters (guys with "shoots from distance" PPM or roles that encourage long shooting) and poor conversion rate? I recall that before the final FM13 patch it was basically necessary to keep the "work ball into box" shout active at all times or you'd get at least a dozen awful long shots per game. I wonder if that quirk has found its way back into the ME.

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Do you think there's a correlation between long shooters (guys with "shoots from distance" PPM or roles that encourage long shooting) and poor conversion rate? I recall that before the final FM13 patch it was basically necessary to keep the "work ball into box" shout active at all times or you'd get at least a dozen awful long shots per game. I wonder if that quirk has found its way back into the ME.

That was really not the case at all.

If you had good tactics with passing options there really was no need to have the "Work Ball into Box" shout active all the time, sure there were times where I used it for some or most of a match but certainly not all the time.

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No, I'd not like to see lower ratings further down the leagues purely because it's lower level football. When you get down to Tier 4/5/6 are you saying those players can only ever get a 0.1 to 4.9 match rating? That wouldn't work for me, and ruin it some.

The ratings need to be looked at as relative to what level the player is playing at so you should be able to look at a player and see how well he's doing at the level he's played at, but factor in for the fact that could/would he carry that on at your top division club. And that's what the attributes are for.

The ratings are fine as they are, maybe just need a bit of tweeking this version, but it's no real biggie to me. I know how well, or not, a player is doing for me and on players I'm looking to buy their average rating is just one small part of the jigsaw of deciding to buy him or not.

But surely a 60 CA winger in the lower leagues would do many mistakes due to lack of skills, that should take his rating down. Like making a poor cross go over the byline when not pressured. Bad shoots 20 yards over the goal for the 60 CA striker while not under much pressure from the defence. In my head (and in Norwegian papers) poor players doing lots of mistakes don't deserve a 8 or 9 just coz we can't expect more on that level.

Just my thoughts.

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That was really not the case at all.

If you had good tactics with passing options there really was no need to have the "Work Ball into Box" shout active all the time, sure there were times where I used it for some or most of a match but certainly not all the time.

In my experience it absolutely was the case. There was one particular version of the FM13 ME where most AMs (and really most attack-minded players given sufficient freedom) absolutely adored making long dribbling runs and then blasting a shot from the edge of the box. I was playing with Chelsea at the time and I recall Gael Kakuta, Marko Marin, and Victor Moses being unbelievably bad with this, and even top players like Mata and Hazard frequently being very wasteful.

Of course I could have gone and edited individual instructions to set long shots to "rarely" for such offenders, but it was a hell of a lot easier to just set "work ball into box" for the whole team. Lots of people complained about this and I think it was addressed in the final patch.

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Do you think there's a correlation between long shooters (guys with "shoots from distance" PPM or roles that encourage long shooting) and poor conversion rate? I recall that before the final FM13 patch it was basically necessary to keep the "work ball into box" shout active at all times or you'd get at least a dozen awful long shots per game. I wonder if that quirk has found its way back into the ME.

I think the fact that players are taking a lot more long shots in the current match engine than they should be isn't helping the conversion rate. But there still shouldn't be such a huge difference in conversion rate between in-game and real life; players who like shooting from distance naturally have lower conversion rates (as they do in real life), but as in the case of Cristiano Ronaldo, to go from 20%+ in real life down to 9-12% in the game is a bit extreme. I think the solution is to either increase long range accuracy for players with high long shot ability (thereby increasing the chance to score from range, and making the conversion rate a bit more realistic) or just reduce the rate of long shots altogether (even for players with the shoots from distance PPM), which may balance it all out. In the current version of the match engine, the rate of long shots is way too high and the accuracy of long shots is bad (even for players with a good long shot ability).

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In my experience it absolutely was the case. There was one particular version of the FM13 ME where most AMs (and really most attack-minded players given sufficient freedom) absolutely adored making long dribbling runs and then blasting a shot from the edge of the box. I was playing with Chelsea at the time and I recall Gael Kakuta, Marko Marin, and Victor Moses being unbelievably bad with this, and even top players like Mata and Hazard frequently being very wasteful.

Of course I could have gone and edited individual instructions to set long shots to "rarely" for such offenders, but it was a hell of a lot easier to just set "work ball into box" for the whole team. Lots of people complained about this and I think it was addressed in the final patch.

That wasn't specifically to do with long shots though, it was the decision making that was off ( which could/would result in more long shots. depending on how you were set up), sometimes you didn't see it, sometimes it was shooting spree from 25 yards.

I'd agree the decision making needs to be tweaked slightly in this regard in the current ME, imo.

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That wasn't specifically to do with long shots though, it was the decision making that was off ( which could/would result in more long shots. depending on how you were set up), sometimes you didn't see it, sometimes it was shooting spree from 25 yards.

I'd agree the decision making needs to be tweaked slightly in this regard in the current ME, imo.

I agree it was primarily decision-making at fault.

As for TokyoBlade's findings I'd be curious to see FM vs. IRL stats for long shot on-target percentages.

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Ok, here's my feedback. All-around, I think it's miles ahead of the disappointment FM 2013 was, BUT (and that's a big, hairy but) the game has three or four flaws that make it impossible for me to even think about starting a long save.

My major concern is with transfers. I can't sell a first team player that won best champion's league player for even 30% of his value. I can't buy a 15-year old worth €14m (that's thousand, not millions, for our UK readers) nobody has ever heard of for less than €4M. That's almost a 29.000% increase!!! That makes it impossible to start a long term save because I can't sell players unless I practically give them away, and I can't buy neither developed or developing players because both are too expensive (I had Benfica ask me €89M for Salvio... a player who was transfer and loan listed). And since I can't buy players I have to stick with my youngsters (which is pretty much hit or miss) or my current squad until they retire. I can't keep my finances above the red because my main income (which would be selling players) is non existent at all!

Second is the defensive problems everyone knows about. I won't talk about that because it's been viewed and reviewed endlessly in this topic.

Third is not really about the game 'per se' but about players' attributes. The players from my country's league (Portugal) have always been biased since I remember playing Championship Manager but in FM2014 they are so biased it's not even possible to hide it anymore. Matic who was voted best player in the league has poor attributes, but Quintero (who is a bench player and has yet to even prove himself in as good as James or Diego and almost at a Robben level). That's one example among dozens. Josué is better than Salvio, one of the best wingers in the league. Rojo is better than Garay and Mangala, the best centre-backs in the league. Oh, and by the way Garay is actually slower than his 32 years-old partner (wich is faaaaar from reality as Garay is MUCH faster) and Mangala is the equivalent of an underfed ethiopian compared to his real self. All that and wrong ownerships all across the league, contracts with made up clauses that don't exist in real life and much more.

Fourth is about B-teams in Portugal. They still don't work as a reserves team, but as a different team. That's... well, stupid. I understand that the rules have to be coded into the source, but they've been around for two years and we still can't use them for anything at all. They serve no purpose within the game whatsoever. Sure, you can send players there, but you can also do that with every other team in the world.

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I've been playing FM/CM since 1998. I skipped a few versions since FM 2011, and bought this - major improvement in many ways, congrats guys! The 3d engine looks great, the interfaces improved a lot, I'm lovin' it.

However. This is the first FM I bought on the release day since.... 2008 or 2009 I guess? And I see the same thing I did then. A match engine with silly errors that impact playability by a lot. I realize it's a very complex engine, I realize you have to work with tight deadlines. I'm playing with AFC Telford in the Skrill North and my defenders AND the defenders I bought to replace the original defenders AND the defenders I loaned from other teams just won't close down the opposing strikers. They back up and give shooting opportunities. No matter what I do. I changed defensive instructions for the next game, same thing. After 30 games, still the same thing.

I know you will fix it in the next patch. But please kindly realize that this great franchise is shooting themselves in the foot with this mentality - I cannot believe it would not be relevant for you whether I pay $50 or $15 for my copy. And at this point, I see no reason for anyone to keep paying full price just for the privilege of waiting for a patch.

Keep up the good work and thanks for all the unforgettable moments and for the many unforgettable moments to come.

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I'm hoping that the next update would be a good one, if it takes longer until its release, i hope that we'll not be forced to wait for another to fix the bugs generated by the new one, i guess this is the problem SI team is facing.

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Really, really getting fed up with how the mouse cursor keeps freezing in the football icon...drives me nuts, happening all the time and only way to resolve this seems to be to have to quit the game and reload...

And I also keep getting game crashes when I right click on a player and click on 'add to unwanted list'...

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I played more than a thousand hours each in 2011 and 2012. I skipped 2013.

So far my experience in 2014 has been really, really poor. I've been managing Arsenal, and really at no point have I felt in control of what's happening.

Interactions between fullbacks and wingers are pretty clearly bugged - Bacary Sagna averaged a 5.4 matchrating across half a season for me. In matches where one fullback has serious issues, like-for-like swaps seem to result in the replacement playing equally badly. The substitution doesn't actually seem to help at all. Changing display modes and the amount of highlights doesn't seem to do anything to affect anything. Centerbacks have similar problems.

Players don't feel responsive to tactical changes. I've got every possible option I can find to discourage long shots but that hasn't stopped Flamini and Cazorla from firing into row Z every time they touch the ball. And the more I try to retain possession the more likely my goalkeepers are to blast the ball to one of their centerbacks.

I don't feel like there's a way to hold players accountable for poor performances. Olivier Giroud still sucks, and is complacent or uninterested in nearly every match. I can talk to him and have him agree that he needs to play better. I can drop him to the bench. I can drop him completely. If I fine him for poor performance, he gets pissed off and demands to leave. I went through this with Bacary Sagna and sold him. I'll probably have to sell Jack Wilshere, who refuses to talk to me after being fined for a 4.9 rating.

Teamtalks are completely pointless. As a test, I reloaded a match against Sunderland five times in a row, selecting the same team talk each time (Assertive - you're the favorites, suggested by my assistant). Each time, I got drastically different results, ranging from 5 positive/6 neutral to 8 neutral/3 negative. The process seems random, so I'm really not interested in it. Pep talks for substitutes have never had a positive effect, so I mostly don't bother. I get that there's some reputation stuff at work there, but it's currently a feature that punishes me for using it.

The frequency of injuries I've had has been strange and frustrating, but one season is a pretty small sample. Still, it's quite irritating to move from having all my CBs injured to all my RBs injured to all my wingers injured at once. It also has seemed like players are much more likely to be injured on days when other players recover from injuries.

Match results obviously aren't pre-determined. I believe that. But they really, really feel like they are. My aforementioned 5 reloads against Sunderland (have have 19 points from 35 games) gave me two losses and three draws - 3-3, 0-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 1-2. A similar experiment against Everton resulted in four consecutive 2-1 defeats with a 1-1 draw after. A sixth attempt at the Sunderland game handed me a 2-3 defeat, with all four defenders finishing with ratings below 6. A seventh has just seen Keiran Gibbs give me a 5.1 rating in 50 minutes and a 1-1 draw. Another experiment in the next match against West Ham has given me four consecutive losses, all by two goals, with Matt Jarvis having at worst one goal and one assist in each game.

Transfers are stupid. I get that one of the design goals is to keep players from poaching young players from other teams, but the lengths to which this has gone is absurd. A nineteen year old striker playing in the French second division U19s, recovering from a serious leg injury, probably shouldn't cost thirteen million pounds. A kid in the Croation second division shouldn't cost more than sum total of transfer fees taken in by every team in the country in the previous year, no matter how good he is. And a fifteen year old in Serie C shouldn't cost fifteen times the transfer record for the league.

It seems to me that the optimal way to play is this: pick a recommended tactic. Before each game, have your assistant manager pick the players. Have your assistant manager pick the opposition tactics. Have your assistant manager handle the teamtalk. Apply whatever instructions they suggest. Don't interact in any way with players. Avoid doing things because the consequences are worse and more frequent than the rewards. Wait for changes to improve the experience. Really, I wish I'd just skipped to that last step. Nothing about this game is fun. I'm going back to 12, and if I thought getting my money back was at all realistic, I'd try.

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The visual feedback for goalkeeping is strange. They seem to be able to pluck top-corner rockets out of the air, but spill tame shots. Perhaps it's just an animation issue, but it's one of the most jarring elements of the ME right now.

Another problem I have with the goalkeeper is that they dont seem to be able to catch ball (or push to corner) that are going to hit the top bar, no matter how easy the shot was and that often doesnt end well after the bounce. Its as if all the goalkeepers were dwarf.

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I agree it was primarily decision-making at fault.

As for TokyoBlade's findings I'd be curious to see FM vs. IRL stats for long shot on-target percentages.

Agreed, right now ( and i say this on perception, so I could be very wrong on this) I think FM would be on the high side compared to real life, but I couldnt say for sure. Starting a new save tonight and have time off tomorrow so will delve into this further.

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Teamtalks are completely pointless. As a test, I reloaded a match against Sunderland five times in a row, selecting the same team talk each time (Assertive - you're the favorites, suggested by my assistant). Each time, I got drastically different results, ranging from 5 positive/6 neutral to 8 neutral/3 negative. The process seems random, so I'm really not interested in it. Pep talks for substitutes have never had a positive effect, so I mostly don't bother. I get that there's some reputation stuff at work there, but it's currently a feature that punishes me for using it.

There are many factors that influence the outcome of a game.

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There are many factors that influence the outcome of a game.

Sure. I'm using a save from directly before the game and selecting the same options each time to control as many variables as I can. When I talk about results in that context, I'm talking about player reaction to the prematch teamtalk. Doing the same teamtalk five times with no other changes to the prematch press conference, tactics, player selection, training or opposition tactics has given me drastically different player reactions, and that makes the feature feel more random and less useful to the player. I'm, uh, not sure if you understood what I was talking about in the quoted section.

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Agreed, right now ( and i say this on perception, so I could be very wrong on this) I think FM would be on the high side compared to real life, but I couldnt say for sure. Starting a new save tonight and have time off tomorrow so will delve into this further.

The SI crew have already admitted issues with too few goals from DFKs, so I wonder if long shot accuracy in general needs to be improved, but they're afraid to do so without implementing other defensive fixes since it will push overall goalscoring too high.

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The SI crew have already admitted issues with too few goals from DFKs, so I wonder if long shot accuracy in general needs to be improved, but they're afraid to do so without implementing other defensive fixes since it will push overall goalscoring too high.

I think the issues with free kick are separate, i suspect one to do with more physics model work needed. Given the number of knock ons that could occur with ball physic, suspect that one could be a while. Certainly more pressing issues to deal with.

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g97c.png

can someone please explain this?!

i didnt get any injury notification,on his injurys list everything is blank..he is on 100% fitness..on my team injury list i have 0 players injured etc..what happened to this player? why it says he cant play for medical reasons? (i also didnt receive any notification about this)???

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g97c.png

can someone please explain this?!

i didnt get any injury notification,on his injurys list everything is blank..he is on 100% fitness..on my team injury list i have 0 players injured etc..what happened to this player? why it says he cant play for medical reasons? (i also didnt receive any notification about this)???

In real life he was ruled out for 3 months for a heart condition.

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Just do the opposite. When you click on the 'available for reserves' section, you'll see a tick next to the option you've chosen (45,60,or 90mins), just click on the tick and it'll disappear.

When I try to do this I cant select the tick as it's greyed out?

Found out you need to do this when you have selected the reserve squad. Strange...

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Agreed, right now ( and i say this on perception, so I could be very wrong on this) I think FM would be on the high side compared to real life, but I couldnt say for sure. Starting a new save tonight and have time off tomorrow so will delve into this further.

Let us know your findings :)

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CCCs: Thanks to OPTA, we know that most players convert less than 50% of their CCCs. Of the 33 players having 10 or more CCCs in last season's EPL, only 8 scored with 50% or more of them. In contrast, 11 converted 30% or less. Further, some strikers are almost completely reliant on CCCs for their goals, normally Target Man or Poacher types. As we've explained in these forums for FM13, that is one reason why they generally don't make good lone forwards. In contrast, as page two of the article illustrates, more complete strikers can fashion chances out of nothing.

In this Guardian article, OPTA even go so far as to determine a probability conversion for each chance. In a match in which Newcastle outshot Reading by 16 to 7 and had 56% of possession, they lost 2-1. The OPTA analyst suggests that Reading deserved to win, for they had the two best chances in the match with a 49% and 69% probability of conversion, compared to Newcastle's best chance, which had a 34% probability. In actuality, Reading won because they scored from a 17% probability chance. Across the match the data suggested Reading should score 1.6 goals and Newcastle 1.4, so the 2-1 result was a fair one. Whereas FM doesn't yet have that level of analysis, an educated subjective eye on the match analysis screen should be a good substitute.

Possession: Thanks to OPTA stats and The Guardian, we have exact knowledge of how often a team wins when having more possession (57%) and more shots (71%). Even if you always dominate the shot count, over a 60 match season you should expect to fail to win circa 18 times. Obviously, you will win some matches very easily. The key to being good at FM is not those matches, but reducing this 30-40% figure to one that will ensure you win some trophies.

Basically, if you are winning roughly 7 out of 10 matches across all your seasons when you have more shots and are converting between 40 and 50% of your CCCs, then there's no issue here. There is, of course, more to football than possession and shot counts, which you need to take on board to move beyond your current analytical approach.

Good post and shows good example to confirm you will always get wins despite being behind in the shot count/possession stats and interesting to see stats for win ratios with possession stats. It would also be interesting to see stats from other European leagues before concluding they're concrete across the board numbers for win rates given premiership is not really a possesion based league relying more on moments/flashes/impact players rather than constructive cerebral possession game you see in ka liga for example. I'd say there are disparities between league on possession translation to win rate but the taking more shots is definitely increasing your chances percentage wise at a helicopter level notwithstanding quality of shots/position etc etc.

Attached shows that the higher the level of possession the higher your win rate is which again should be considered when modelling into the game.

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2010/may/12/the-question-important-possession

Guardiola win rate at April 12 at least at barca was over 70% showing quality possesion with quality players will result in higher win rates too

It's important to reflect the differences in higher percentage/win rates rather than go with a sweeping assumed definitive 57% which of course I know you'll do. Would be great if you had similar research from other leagues as premiership is unique to itself in terms of style

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