JP Woody's Understanding the odds, playing the right way.

[JP Woody]

I think most of us have realised with fm13 that the good old plug and play tactic is becoming more and more difficult to use and achieve consistent success. Yes there are some decent ones but they are no longer as full proof as past efforts. Many believe its a conspiracy from SI to stop us enjoying the game but not true. The plug and play tactic relies on one thing to succeed, flaws in the match engine to exploit, take away those flaws and the plug and play dies and it is SI's job to remove the flaws from the game. The game is evolving and we can either cry that our beloved tactics no longer work or we can evolve with it.

I decided to create a simple 433 tactic with 3 strategies, Counter, Standard and Attack. 3 to keep it as simple as possible and also 3 because that's how many tactics you can load up to the tactic screen and train to use. Its very important that all 3 strategies are loaded to the tactics screen and trained individually.

Next i needed to establish which of the 3 tactics/strategies to use for which match. This is something i think many struggle with therefore look for a simpler plug and play alternative, so i decided to create my own guide to use with these 3 tactics. After some extensive testing i came up with this:

UNDERSTANDING THE PRE MATCH ODDS

UNDERDOG If you are the underdog and the opposition is the favorite you play the COUNTER strategy, no matter what, home or away.

FAVORITE The following is a list of your starting odds when you are the favorite to win and what strategy to use.

6-4 Standard

5-4 standard

evens standard

4-5 standard

4-6 standard

4-7 attack

1-2 attack

2-5 attack

1-3, 1-4, 1-5 etc all attack.

This has proved very successful for me using it with my three 433 tactics.

Northampton Town Premier league after 3 consecutive promotions then moved to marseille.

Marseille French title (unbeaten all season) and Champions league winner.

Luton Town Championship after 3 consecutive promotions then moving to spurs.

Spurs Premier league title and euro league winner first season.

Hopefully the guide and system will help some of you to create your own tactic and use it successfully. However if any of you want to use the 3 tactics i used i will release them. However please understand you need to load and use all 3 as stated above or it wont work. None of them are plug and play tactics.

I used no shouts or opposition instructions.

Teamtalks i used an ass man with high motivation stats but gave the FT teamtalk and the HT talk if the hairdryer was needed.

General Training balanced only. Match training tactics only.

This has easily been the most successful way of playing ive created on FM13 but all 3 strategies must be used to be successful.

3 tactics here:

http://www44.zippyshare.com/v/7827595/file.html

If you don't have winrar to extract the tactics you can download them individually from the opening post here:

http://www.fm-base.co.uk/forum/football-manager-2013-tactics-training/118206-jp-woodys-understanding-odds-playing-right-way.html#post1743862

Made a new 4-6-0 tactic for this which works much better. Same instructions as OP, only change is you now play standard when 6/4 favorite instead of counter.

http://www11.zippyshare.com/v/73686890/file.html

[Curuedhel]

Is there actually any difference between them apart from the mentality? Why not just have one and adjust the mentality during the match? Does it make a difference having them as 3 separate tactics?

[JP Woody]

Is there actually any difference between them apart from the mentality? Why not just have one and adjust the mentality during the match? Does it make a difference having them as 3 separate tactics?

Yes they are different. Also by loading all three you train in all three. If you have one on attack then simply change to say counter the fluidity will dip.

[silverblabe]

I'm doing the exact same thing ! But I actually use different tactics depending on the players I have (exploiting our forces, reducing our weaknesses).

I think a lot of people really underestimate the infos the game gives you. Learn to use thoses infos, and you'll be successfull.

good job JP =)

Edit : I personnaly use shouts. A lot. They win me tons of games

[JP Woody]

I'm doing the exact same thing ! But I actually use different tactics depending on the players I have (exploiting our forces, reducing our weaknesses).

I think a lot of people really underestimate the infos the game gives you. Learn to use thoses infos, and you'll be successfull.

good job JP =)

Edit : I personnaly use shouts. A lot. They win me tons of games

Yes, i think there is a lot of people who just want to use a plug & play diablo type tactic and not really have to think about anything. Just buying players and winning games. While that can be fun it does get boring after a while. The ME has moved on but its not impossible to get the better of and the tools are there to be used and understanding them really does work better than any plug and play tactic.

[silverblabe]

Yes, i think there is a lot of people who just want to use a plug & play diablo type tactic and not really have to think about anything. Just buying players and winning games. While that can be fun it does get boring after a while. The ME has moved on but its not impossible to get the better of and the tools are there to be used and understanding them really does work better than any plug and play tactic.

IMO the game should allow both ! Some kind of diablo tactic as you said, and more in depth tatical / managing type. So everyone could play the game as they see fit.

SI tends to stop those "1 tactic to shine", and they'll just frustrate a lot of people in the long run. As well as destroying this awesome tactical sharing community...

[janeka]

JP, did you try this theory with another formations?

[iMan]

JP, did you try this theory with another formations?

Hardly a ''Theory'' If you read the descriptions for each strategy.

[janeka]

Then what is it? It's his theory, I think we can call it that despite the tactics been made only in TC. If he understands what I mean it's all that matters :-)

[JP Woody]

JP, did you try this theory with another formations?

No just the 433 given so far.

[janeka]

Are you thinking trying another formation?

[bububaggins]

Im just trying this 3 tactic system with Leeds United in a new game, so far it looks good would def encourage other people to try.

[JP Woody]

Are you thinking trying another formation?

Not in the near future because im currently enjoying a save but definitely in future. Would like to try a 4231.

[JP Woody]

Im just trying this 3 tactic system with Leeds United in a new game, so far it looks good would def encourage other people to try.

Glad its working for you. Are you challenging for promotion?

[gotlandskommun]

what kind of attributes to look for when buying players JP? ????

[JP Woody]

what kind of attributes to look for when buying players JP? ????

Pretty basic really to give me a wide range of choice.

Keepers: Handling & Reflexes

Full Backs: Crossing & Tackling

Center Backs: Heading & Concentration

Deep Lying Playmaker: Teamwork & Passing

Advanced Playmaker: Creativity & Dribbling

Center Midfielder: Passing & Tackling

Inside Forwards: Dribbling & Pace

Target Man: Heading & Strength

[janeka]

I started a new save with Millwall and I will use your approach but with a tactic made by me. My main objective is to avoid relegation because Millwall doesn't have a very good team. I will keep you updated.

[Ricard78]

You touched on your team talks but im not sure what you mean. Can you embelish?

I am giving your tactics a go in my save game but having a torrid time, cant keep a clean sheet unless the game end in a 0-0 draw.

[JP Woody]

You touched on your team talks but im not sure what you mean. Can you embelish?

I am giving your tactics a go in my save game but having a torrid time, cant keep a clean sheet unless the game end in a 0-0 draw.

Well basically if you want your assistant manager to give the teamtalks get one with high motivation stats. Im not sure I can go into more detail than that.

[Ricard78]

Lol sorry, I ment to comment on the part when you take over.

[JP Woody]

Made a new 4-6-0 tactic for this which works much better. Same instructions as OP, only change is you now play standard when 6/4 favorite instead of counter.

http://www11.zippyshare.com/v/73686890/file.html

[DaSilva9]

JP I think you really hit on something with this method but I was still having problems with teams pegging me back, goals from set pieces and conceding of late goals. What I did was combined your method with Milsinho's slider apathy method and suddenly my defense solidified and my attack became lethal.

this is the slider apathy thread

http://community.sigames.com/showthread.php/304837-Millsinho-s-Slider-Apathy?highlight=slider+apathy

my team settings are yours but my individual settings are like slider apathy. So its three 442 formations COUNTER, STANDARD AND ATTACKING each with 5 attackers and 5 defensive players

the only adjustment I made to Milsinhos settings was to alter the 'cross from' setting in order to vary the attack. I put my left sided forwards and midfielders on cross form deep while I set my left sided defenders to cross from the byline. On the right side I put my forwards and midfielders to cross from they byline while setting my right sided defenders to cross from deep.

One additional note: For the attacking formation you should bump the pressing up to 20 for attacking players and 10 for defensive players

[sneek]

Great Stuff JP Woody!

Been thinking in same direction as you about odds and stuff but been to lazy to try it out

Last three matches using your theory = Reading H 3-0, Tottenham A 2-1, West Brom H 3-1.

Thank you for making my FM life alot more fun.

Edit:

Just a quick update. The fourth match played was against Southampton in the semifinal of Capital one cup in there home field, had won the first game 3-0 at Anfield.

Before i read your post i would normally started with a standard/counter mentality just to keep it safe but looking at the prematch odds telling me i was a 4-7 favorite i decided to trust "you" and insteed used my attacking mentality tactik and guess what 2-0 win and just dominated the hole 90mins. wow

[FuTuRaMa]

Hey DaSilva

Can you upload your tweaked version ?

Sincerely Brian

[JP Woody]

JP I think you really hit on something with this method but I was still having problems with teams pegging me back, goals from set pieces and conceding of late goals. What I did was combined your method with Milsinho's slider apathy method and suddenly my defense solidified and my attack became lethal.

this is the slider apathy thread

http://community.sigames.com/showthread.php/304837-Millsinho-s-Slider-Apathy?highlight=slider+apathy

my team settings are yours but my individual settings are like slider apathy. So its three 442 formations COUNTER, STANDARD AND ATTACKING each with 5 attackers and 5 defensive players

the only adjustment I made to Milsinhos settings was to alter the 'cross from' setting in order to vary the attack. I put my left sided forwards and midfielders on cross form deep while I set my left sided defenders to cross from the byline. On the right side I put my forwards and midfielders to cross from they byline while setting my right sided defenders to cross from deep.

One additional note: For the attacking formation you should bump the pressing up to 20 for attacking players and 10 for defensive players

It was my method I was really trying to get across rather than my tactics which are simply an example. Its great you've used this to hit upon a winning formula.

[JP Woody]

Great Stuff JP Woody!

Been thinking in same direction as you about odds and stuff but been to lazy to try it out

Last three matches using your theory = Reading H 3-0, Tottenham A 2-1, West Brom H 3-1.

Thank you for making my FM life alot more fun.

Edit:

Just a quick update. The fourth match played was against Southampton in the semifinal of Capital one cup in there home field, had won the first game 3-0 at Anfield.

Before i read your post i would normally started with a standard/counter mentality just to keep it safe but looking at the prematch odds telling me i was a 4-7 favorite i decided to trust "you" and insteed used my attacking mentality tactik and guess what 2-0 win and just dominated the hole 90mins. wow

Are you using this method with your own tactics or the ones I posted? Im hoping this method will work with any sensible 3 strategy method.

[Earnie is God!]

I use two different tactics; one for home and one away. Seems to be working so far but I do like your idea.

I do have a question though: if things aren't going well in a match, what do you change?

e.g. you are underdog and so go with the counter tactic but find yourself losing with 30min to go. Do you then change to the standard or attacking one?

Same the other way around. You start with the attacking one because you are favourite. If say you are 2-0 up with 15min to go would you change it to the standard or counter one?

[Earnie is God!]

I ask because the AI mentality changes during a match depending on how things are going. In relation to your theory of pre-match odds, you could think of that as in-play odds once the match starts. You might have been 5/4 at kick off and therefore play 'standard' but if you are 2-0 up at HT, you will then be odds-on to win and the AI will change its own mentality towards the game. Would you stick with 'standard', change to 'attacking' because the odds now reflect your superiority or change to 'counter' because you know your opponents are likely to attack you more (just like they would from the start of the match if they were favourites and you'd start with 'counter')?

[sneek]

Are you using this method with your own tactics or the ones I posted? Im hoping this method will work with any sensible 3 strategy method.

Yes i´m using it with my own set of tactics. Thats what makes this theory so great!

[Flohrinho]

I'm trying your theory with my team in the third German league and so far I can't really say it's working miracles.

Maybe it's also working better for higher reputation teams because essentially for me the odds are always in an area where I have to play standard according to your rule of thumb, so in the end there won't be much variety in the tactics I use.

But it's still a good first guideline.

So considering that I'm almost never clear underdog and almost never clear favorite due to the strength of the teams being always so close together I decided to make two different standard tactics and one attacking tactic.

The two standard tactics will have two different set of shouts applied to them, one will be "play wider, exploit the middle" and the other will be "play narrower, exploit the flanks."

Now according to what the scouting report says if they are more susceptible to goals through the center or the flanks I will chose the tactic that try's to exploit those situations.

Non the less using 3 tactics to be prepared for most situations is a good idea, but it's also important to understand which situations you will face most in the league and how to prepare to them.

If you are mainly the underdog, better have two different counter tactics in your repertoire, if you are the best of the best, better have a variety in your attacking arsenal and so on.

[JP Woody]

I use two different tactics; one for home and one away. Seems to be working so far but I do like your idea.

I do have a question though: if things aren't going well in a match, what do you change?

e.g. you are underdog and so go with the counter tactic but find yourself losing with 30min to go. Do you then change to the standard or attacking one?

Same the other way around. You start with the attacking one because you are favourite. If say you are 2-0 up with 15min to go would you change it to the standard or counter one?

I've tried changing mentality when loosing and only ended up loosing more heavily. However im not a user of shouts so maybe that is the solution. I've only used this in a prei basic way, im sure it can be improved upon.

[JP Woody]

I'm trying your theory with my team in the third German league and so far I can't really say it's working miracles.

Maybe it's also working better for higher reputation teams because essentially for me the odds are always in an area where I have to play standard according to your rule of thumb, so in the end there won't be much variety in the tactics I use.

But it's still a good first guideline.

So considering that I'm almost never clear underdog and almost never clear favorite due to the strength of the teams being always so close together I decided to make two different standard tactics and one attacking tactic.

The two standard tactics will have two different set of shouts applied to them, one will be "play wider, exploit the middle" and the other will be "play narrower, exploit the flanks."

Now according to what the scouting report says if they are more susceptible to goals through the center or the flanks I will chose the tactic that try's to exploit those situations.

Non the less using 3 tactics to be prepared for most situations is a good idea, but it's also important to understand which situations you will face most in the league and how to prepare to them.

If you are mainly the underdog, better have two different counter tactics in your repertoire, if you are the best of the best, better have a variety in your attacking arsenal and so on.

I Think it is important to remember that the odds aren't worked out on the strength and weaknesses of both teams. Odds are worked out mainly on the form of both teams so the more you win the more you will use attack and the more you loose the more you'll have to use counter.

[Earnie is God!]

Been trying it out during mid-season which isn't always the best time to start. But the formation isn't too dissimilar to the ones I've been using so the familiarity of the players wasn't that bad, although the mentality needed some work as I've been using attacking and overload on my previous tactics.

So far so good as we are unbeaten in 14 games: W7 D7 but the really impressive part is that we have scored 23 and conceded just 6.

Best result so far was a 4-0 home win over Barcelona in the 1st leg of the Europa League semis. They were odds-on, even as the away team, so I went with the counter strategy. Both Neymar (30min)and Mascherano (42min) were sent off in the 1st half for them and the score was 0-0 at HT. 10min into the 2nd half and it was still 0-0 so I switched to the attacking tactic against their ridiculous 4-1-1-1-1 formation (looked like an inverted 'T') and we scored 4 times

Finished the game with 20 shots to their 3!

In the previous round, we played Liverpool and after drawing 1-1 at Anfield we were slight favourites for the return leg. I used the standard strategy and we were leading 1-0 at HT. Gerrard (63min) was then sent off but I stuck with standard. Suarez equalised with 5min to go and so we went into extra time. Then Enrique was sent off (96min) and I still stuck with standard but used the 'exploit the flanks' shout as they were playing very narrow. Took a 118th minute penalty to see us go through although the stats were similar to the Barca game, 20 shots to Liverpool's 8.

As sticking with standard didn't see us score til so late on, that's why I decided to change it to attacking in a similar situation in the semi.

As for OI, I'm not yet sure what works best. I have mainly set none at all but it can be frustrating sometimes to see your players just stand and watch the opponents pass the ball around so, if things aren't going great, I've just asked my AssMan to set them during the game. Not sure if this is the way to go or not though tbh.

edit: 2nd leg v Barca, went with the counter strategy again and they were battering us, 1-0 down at HT but still 4-1 up on aggregate. 1-0 became 2-0 in the 58th minute and when it went 3-0 with 17min to go I panicked. At the time they had had 18 shots to our 1. I switched to the away tactic I had previously been using before using your tactic and we immediately scored, meaning that had to score 3 times in 15min. It finished 3-1 and we are through to the final.

Obviously, it's important to remember that we are only Cardiff and were playing Barcelona but the counter tactic was blown away by them.

Will stick with your theories as it is only one game. Overall, I'm very impressed.

[worthit]

I've tried changing mentality when loosing and only ended up loosing more heavily. However im not a user of shouts so maybe that is the solution. I've only used this in a prei basic way, im sure it can be improved upon.

precisely the final part of the "game" is maintaining lead or chasing goals, what are the "effective" methods you have used?

for me i will turn on ATTACK when i concede in a winning odds match and change counter after a 2 goal lead esp on away matches. thanks for your sharing!

[ron.e]

Interesting stuff. Do you think it will also work by using one tactic but just changing the strategy depending on the odds of the match? Thanks

[Earnie is God!]

A superbly successful season for my Cardiff team, mainly thanks to this simple idea of yours.

I used Standard away to Arsenal and we created a lot but failed to score and then fell to an 89th minute suckerpunch. I switched to the 'attacking false 9' tactic and scored twice in injury time Although I must say that I hardly ever use the 'false 9' ones.

Excellent results overall although I still had trouble against the really big teams when the odds were against us and we went with the 'counter' strategy, especially away from home. Apart from against Man City, where yours is the only tactic that seemed to work against them, we didn't fare well with 'counter'. However, using the 'Arrigo Sacchi 4-4-2' tactic seems to work really well in these situations. That tactic is very draining on the players though and it is not one that I can keep using, especially when we play twice a week for most of the season.

[Codename47]

Woody,

Have I read your topic correctly, in that in relation to the pre-match odds you state above, you just simply start with the mentality of Standard, Attack, or Counter?

i.e. do your three saved tactics differ in formations and roles/duties?

or is it 4-3-3 across the board, exactly the same, BUT you just simply change strategy?

Cheers

[AusBlackCat]

I just want to say thank you to JPWoody, reading this has finally solved my problems in building a solid tactic. I went with 3 sets of 4-2-3-1 deep, and I ended up finishing 3rd with Sunderland in my first season. The football is exciting and fun to watch, and quite solid at the back. It's realistic as well in the way that I am not winning every game 3-0 or 4-0. A lot of 1-0's 2-0's with the occasional loss, and 4-3 kinda game. I have really enjoyed the fact I am successful using something I built. So thank you JPWoody for finally stopping me from pulling my hair out and launching my Mac across the room!