After-a-few-games-syndrome: the new second-season syndrome

[Gyoza Gombastique]

I'm a few years into my journeyman save - started out midway through the first season with Denia in the Spanish third tier. Played a simple 4-4-2 and got some fantastic results in the first few games (couple of 4-0 wins, 3-2 come-from-behind win against the top team in the league). After about 10 games, I start playing a lot worse and displaying relegation form. The initial good run saves me and I finish mid-table. I try out a few other formations and start playing worse and worse and worse, and I finally literally rage-quit a few games into my third season, resigning after a particularly galling loss.

I come to Northampton Town, and try implementing a similar 4-4-2 and get similarly good results in my first few games in charge. Then after about a dozen games, the same thing happens - an enormous dip in form that can't be explained by anything at all. Second season is a transitional one, but then we get to my third. Try out a new 4-2-3-1 which works an enormous treat. Win the first game of the season 4-0, then a few games later go on a massive 13-game unbeaten streak playing some of the best football I've seen. The streak snaps, and suddenly I've suffered five straight losses. Worst part of it is, the performances have completely gone down the toilet. Defenders hoof the ball under no pressure when there are good passing options nearby. Midfielders consistently misplace easy passes leading to counterattacks. I reduce the tempo slider by ONE notch to remedy this, and my attacking players get the ball, and with a multitude of passing options nearby, proceed to DANCE (that's what it looks like, they sway from side to side and swing their hips) on the spot and get tackled.

The worst part is, the best football is played when the familiarity with the tactic is low, and the crap football gets played when the familiarity is full! Shouldn't it be the other way round? Does anyone else have this problem? Am I supposed to change my tactic every few games after the AI figures it out? I'm not the kind of player who expects one tactic to work for every game - I make small changes depending on the quality and formation of the opposition, and I gradually evolve my tactic to suit new players I buy. But it seems like every time I hit on a good tactic, I don't get more than a few good games out of it before the AI figures it out/my players decide to forget how to play. Any ideas on why this is going on?

[Scab]

Well, I think you'd be better off trying to determine exactly why you concede/fail to score rather than label an entire tactic good or bad, especially if those first few games that planted the original idea were friendlies. Most formations can be successful with the right players and instructions, but effectiveness will vary from game to game depending on the approach your opponent takes to the match. If you overall had a good thing going, smaller tweaks based on the problems you can identify while watching the games is a better approach than scrapping the entire formation and starting over. I don't want to provoke here, but the first step to finding an actual solution is usually accepting that even when it appears like things "can't be explained by anything at all," they can. FM is a computer program. There's a factor in the calculations somewhere - even if just bad luck on the roll when calculating chance - that results in what you're seeing.

You could probably get some very good tactical advice if you head over to the Tactics & Training forum and post some PKM's. They're usually pretty good about providing constructive thoughts on what's going wrong and ways to address it.

[Gyoza Gombastique]

The problem is that my 13-match unbeaten streak (including a 4-0 and 5-0 win) were not friendlies - they were all league games. And I have been making small tweaks from match to match. But my formation is not something extremely specialised (like a narrow 4-4-2 diamond) that can be exploited easily; it's a 4-2-3-1 which is supposed to be one of the most versatile formations. Opponents can counter specific threats, but with a solid setup (as 13 games unbeaten proves) and solid players it should at the very least perform decently. But it seems like the higher the tactic familiarity gets, the more disjointed my play becomes. (this also applies to the 4-4-2 that I used previously) So I am wondering if anyone else out there has experienced this drastic and seemingly unexplainable dip in performances and form?

I am trying to solve the problems and figure out what is going on, but at the same time I realize the original post came across as a rant - so thanks for taking the time to reply and hopefully I can get some answers over at TT&T

[Celtic_1967]

I've noticed something similar. Annoys me no end, mostly because I'm not good enough at the game to work out where I'm going wrong.

We play well to start off and as soon as the tactic familiarity meter gets about 75% of the way up we play like 11 complete strangers!

[marty78]

This is why I have three tactics. I keep things fresh and am always getting this message as a result. I use two main tactics 442 attack at home and 4-5-1 counter away and as a back up 4-1-2-1-2 defend when the squad is fatigued.

If my team were better than the opponents I probably wouldn't bother with this but it is serving me well with a weak team.

[BiggusD]

I'd have to say that I am fairly convinced neither tactical familiarity nor "the AI figuring out your tactic" are guilty of your form dip.

The fact that you immidiately turn things around when you employ your tactic and management tells me that your tactic is good and your ability to motivate and fire up your players when you are the underdog is also good. This doesn't change after 10 matches where you perform well.

However, after good form lasting 10 or more matches, the odds catches up and the AI will notice that you are in good form. When this happens they will change their tactical approach, playing more carefully and taking you more seriously. The match will be tighter, more competitive and you won't be allowed to counter freely since they will attempt to deny the space to do so. More will be required of your players, and if they aren't that good you will struggle to win.

If your good form continues, however, you will eventually become the favourite by some margin, and now things will be even more difficult if your team isn't of considerable quality. The AI will now attempt to park the bus and counter on you, and you cannot play direct, quick football (which was probably the backbone of the previous success) if you want to break down a 8-9 man defence. You need to play wide, slow football with lots of movement and quick, short passing moves in order to do that - and this requires skill to pull off.

So what to do? I can only say what I have done to overcome this, and that is the creation of a tactic that balances possession football and counter-attacking power. A flat 442 with both strikers being deep-lying forwards (without Hold Up Ball) and both wingers being set to (very) attacking duties with Cut Inside or Normal wide play and through balls often instead of crossing, while both midfielders are set to attacking duties but told not to run forward, will in my experience do this quite well. I don't think the tactic will be really good in TC mode, though. I can't recreate this Classic tactic using TC default roles and duties at least.

Another thing to keep in mind is that once you are the favourite, more pressure is added to your players. At the same time, a 10-match run without losing will cause over-confidence. So in other words, if your players are not highly professional, determined, ambitious and have high pressure handling and consistency, they will be both nervous and complacent once you have been in good enough form long enough. So if you still try to fire them up in the belief that green arrows in the pre-match team talk screen is alpha and omega, you're in trouble at that point. It is better that your players are nervous than complacent, so in a damned if you do damned if you don't kind of way, switching to assertive or passionate tones and expect a win/impress me team talks (for the fans is rarely a good option in lower leagues - unless a good assistant suggests it; this means you're playing a rival) will get rid of the complacency, but the team is likely to become nervous especially after 30 minutes without taking the lead. Young players and players with low morale are more likely to be nervous, and players with V.Good or Superb morale are more likely to become complacent.

[BiggusD]

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http://www.gamefront.com/files/21713902/4-4-2+Classic+Balanced+Possession.tac

2nd in the league with Germany's worst team (according to media predictions) after 18 matches, with no signings. If you want to try the tactic, it might be useful in order to see if there is something about the tactic that you like, even if you don't want to use other people's tactics.

[achilles-the-victorious]

Its a question of maintaining form, avoiding complacency, AND getting your tactics right.

My team will sometimes dip in form after a nice 8-10 game run, they just come out and look like they don't give a damn. If we lose or draw late on, I rage at the team. They are highly professional, so they know when I start yelling, they deserve to be yelled at. Morale will go down, and I will do everything in my power to get everyone back up to very good or superb, I will fine players who played a 6 or lower in the match, and tell anyone who played a 6.6 or less they weren't good enough. Because I am dealing with professionals who are very determined I know how it will play out, I don't have one or two bad apples I have to treat with kid gloves.

So that should take care of motivation and complacency. You can't always stop it, esp. when it happens because you are giving a few guys a run out who haven't played in a while (because those players need to play eventually, they play when the schedule brings up a weaker opponent), but you can make sure it doesn't continue.

For tactics, having something to play against opponents who sit deep and want to counter, or launch the rare foray forward, is crucial. I like to sit a bit deeper myself, which means the opposition have to come out of their shell a little bit to 'meet' me, and leaves space in behind their defence. I play an advanced LW, a poacher and a complete forward, all with pace (the poacher only has 14 pace, but strong, hardworking, and a born goalscorer) and this gives me a pretty good chance of getting on to the end of a direct pass when my team wins possession.

Just realize playing against Real Madrid at home is VERY different from playing Stoke at home,so you will get tactics that work great against your main rivals, but fail away from home, against small clubs, who are sitting deep, with little intent on scoring (unless they catch you overcommitting men forward, or find some other weakness, like a player hurt off the pitch for a few moments).

[Gyoza Gombastique]

Very good points

Agreed on plenty of counts! The puzzling thing though, is that we're a relatively big team in our division (predicted to finish 8th out of 24), and the backbone of my success with the 4-2-3-1 was patient build-up play, and what's pulling my team down now is not being hit on the counter, but us simply playing worse - not chasing loose balls, misplacing easy passes, dallying on the ball. It seems to me that the AI reacted to my good tactic by closing my players down very aggressively, which seems to be the opposite from the experience of most of the people on these forums.

Not sure what's going on with that, but your second point definitely hits home. My squad is very talented but also very young (no players over 30, my vice-captain is just 19) and not particularly professional or ambitious, so that might do it. If you're right (and I suspect you are) we'll start playing well again once we slip down the table a bit.

[shirajzl]

BiggusD, how's man marking working out in that tactic of yours? I usually find it very risky...

[TwinsFan86]

Agreed on plenty of counts! The puzzling thing though, is that we're a relatively big team in our division (predicted to finish 8th out of 24), and the backbone of my success with the 4-2-3-1 was patient build-up play, and what's pulling my team down now is not being hit on the counter, but us simply playing worse - not chasing loose balls, misplacing easy passes, dallying on the ball. It seems to me that the AI reacted to my good tactic by closing my players down very aggressively, which seems to be the opposite from the experience of most of the people on these forums.

Not sure what's going on with that, but your second point definitely hits home. My squad is very talented but also very young (no players over 30, my vice-captain is just 19) and not particularly professional or ambitious, so that might do it. If you're right (and I suspect you are) we'll start playing well again once we slip down the table a bit.

One of things I have found that helps solidify my 4-2-3-1 is to make sure the wingers assigned to specific man mark the opposing fullbacks. This alleviates the match engine problem of wingers not tracking back like they should. Unfortunately it's not something the user can do much about it. Hopefully, the next iteration of the match engine is improved in this area.

[Gyoza Gombastique]

Thanks for the help, I tried making the wingers man mark opposing fullbacks, and turned my my ball-winning midfielder (S) into a DLP (D) which allow for smoother transition between defence and attack - also helps my side recycle possession with two players staying just outside the box. Finally I make sure that my captain (one of the oldest players in my side at 24) is almost always playing.

This seems to have helped - since the run of bad form I've had only one loss in 5, and that was a narrow 1-0 loss after my striker was sent off in the 1st minute. We're playing a little better in general as well, so thanks for all your advice!

[BiggusD]

BiggusD, how's man marking working out in that tactic of yours? I usually find it very risky...

Yes it is risky, but it is well worth it in my opinion. I want my defenders to stay as close to the opposing attackers as possible because that will allow them to put pressure on them and possibly win possession. There is a risk of being caught out of position, but this happens rarely if you have good (and fast) enough players. What happens the vast majority of the time is that the opposition can't find space and time to do anything worthwhile with the ball. As such, I WANT my defense to close down and leave their positions - when not to do so is up to the Decisions attribute and possibly Team Work.

[shirajzl]

Yes it is risky, but it is well worth it in my opinion. I want my defenders to stay as close to the opposing attackers as possible because that will allow them to put pressure on them and possibly win possession. There is a risk of being caught out of position, but this happens rarely if you have good (and fast) enough players. What happens the vast majority of the time is that the opposition can't find space and time to do anything worthwhile with the ball. As such, I WANT my defense to close down and leave their positions - when not to do so is up to the Decisions attribute and possibly Team Work.

That's exactly why I'm surprised it works in German Third Division. Surely you don't have very intelligent and fast defenders at Dramstadt.

[Celtic_1967]

That's exactly why I'm surprised it works in German Third Division. Surely you don't have very intelligent and fast defenders at Dramstadt.

I would imagine that the defenders are intelligent and fast relative to the level they play at.

[shirajzl]

I would imagine that the defenders are intelligent and fast relative to the level they play at.

I doubt that, given Dramstadt are the worst team in their league and he made no signings.

[Guest avine]

I got the same second-season syndrome in spanish league with a small team in a presidential save where it seems that counter and possession and even tactical football is not enough. I overachieved in the first season and i am fighting against relagation in the second. I haven't thought of this as a familiarity level issue. Maybe the solution would be: carry out better formation-s plus pressing mid or high in the second half of the season

[BiggusD]

That's exactly why I'm surprised it works in German Third Division. Surely you don't have very intelligent and fast defenders at Dramstadt.

Yeah I am a bit surprised as well. None of the players are good. The best player is the striker Steegmann, and he's a "good player in German Third Division" iirc. So four stars=good not leading. What I see during matches isn't very impressive. I create more big chances than they do on me, both on set pieces, counter-attacks and through established defending lines, and my players put them away slightly more efficiently than them. So as you can see I win 2-1 on average, which explains the low av.r ratings throughout.

Since I haven't tried the tactic with any other team, I don't know if it improves exponentially with better players, or if it indeed works anywhere else than in German Third Division with Darmstadt.