ArsenalFan7

Why is the AI so much better at finishing?

601 posts in this topic

Liverpool & Man City consistently create 20+ scoring chances, I'd dare say there are plenty more teams who could be found with a little research.

That said it is a fairly commonly held opinion that the ME is flawed but somehow remains balanced.

Yup, still a few too many in game though, but not as outlandish as people think. Spurs are averaging like 16 a game IIRC, just of the top of my head.

EDIT: United have had 20+ chances in 4 of their last 6 games. Though I still believe it happens more in FM than IRL.

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Recently my team had a nice winning streak going, maybe 6 games, and we face Udinese (away, in Udine), who is 14th (predicted: 10th). They score from a corner, the attacker tracking him is nowhere to be seen, the midfielder in that region 'misjudged the header'. We push and push and push. Chances, chances, chances. By now their goalie is hot, even though it was only maybe 5 or 6 shots on target that he had stopped. Finally we get one in! We don't manage the win, but the opposition were VERY happy to settle for the draw, the goalie was playing well, but everyone else was having a shock-horror. The moral of the story? We are still top of the league, we beat the no. 2 team 6-0 the week earlier, and I got to give my striker who missed the most chances a good tongue lashing!

Sometimes you just have to make the most out of a bad situation! Clearly the tactics are good, clearly the players are good (based on the showing against the 2nd best team in the league) but also, clearly small teams are a very different proposition from a team that is actually trying to beat you, and win the game!

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Wasn't wwfan involved in writing that?

Millie wrote most of this one, although a lot of it was taken from stuff I wrote in previous versions. It was written in parallel with the development of the TC, so Millie had access to all the ideas and mechanisms it tried to incorporate. As a technical document towards understanding how the TC works, it is unsurpassed. However, many of the strategic threads in the tactics forum better illustrate how you can use the TC strategies and shouts to deal with specific in-match situations.

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Recently my team had a nice winning streak going, maybe 6 games, and we face Udinese (away, in Udine), who is 14th (predicted: 10th). They score from a corner, the attacker tracking him is nowhere to be seen, the midfielder in that region 'misjudged the header'. We push and push and push. Chances, chances, chances. By now their goalie is hot, even though it was only maybe 5 or 6 shots on target that he had stopped. Finally we get one in! We don't manage the win, but the opposition were VERY happy to settle for the draw, the goalie was playing well, but everyone else was having a shock-horror. The moral of the story? We are still top of the league, we beat the no. 2 team 6-0 the week earlier, and I got to give my striker who missed the most chances a good tongue lashing!

Sometimes you just have to make the most out of a bad situation! Clearly the tactics are good, clearly the players are good (based on the showing against the 2nd best team in the league) but also, clearly small teams are a very different proposition from a team that is actually trying to beat you, and win the game!

Well I think it is unfortunate that so many experience the exact same thing; to crush the other title candidates, the good teams trying to attack, but to really really struggle to win against the small teams even though you do score a goal or two. While it is true that a solid defense and a good counter-attacking strategy is a sensible overall strategy if the team is lacking in player skill, it is not more efficient than dominating the game and pushing the other team deep into their own half. For many users, the opposite seems to be the case in FM - the best teams in the world hardly create anything at all and is easy to stop, while poor teams in poor form seems godlike in their ability to put away their chances. It is arrogant to say that there is something wrong with a tactic that limits the opposition to one or two shots per match over time. That is complete defensive control. This thread has been all about how conceding 50-100% of the chances created by the opposition upsets users because there is nothing that can be done to prevent this from happening, simply because the game does not communicate what is wrong.

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Millie wrote most of this one, although a lot of it was taken from stuff I wrote in previous versions. It was written in parallel with the development of the TC, so Millie had access to all the ideas and mechanisms it tried to incorporate. As a technical document towards understanding how the TC works, it is unsurpassed. However, many of the strategic threads in the tactics forum better illustrate how you can use the TC strategies and shouts to deal with specific in-match situations.

I wonder how many people who have that document scoff at your input on here?

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Well, to be fair I don't usually struggle against the small teams, its often a 4-0 or 6-0, but the odd game does come along, maybe 3 or 4 times a season at most, where the backup strikers (who are good, mind you) forgets how to score. I take it as a sign that my tactics were slightly off, or more likely my prematch press conference or team talk somehow left the team complacent still. Its not that difficult to imagine.

But I specifically scout for big game players, and play them in the big games, so from that perspective I always feel that a win over a top team is hard-earned, given that we have signed players over the years specifically world class, AND big game players. And I usually have a tactic designed specifically to deal with my more pesky rivals, like playing an additional defensive midfielder where I would normally play a right winger or another forward against a smaller team.

Well I think it is unfortunate that so many experience the exact same thing; to crush the other title candidates, the good teams trying to attack, but to really really struggle to win against the small teams even though you do score a goal or two. While it is true that a solid defense and a good counter-attacking strategy is a sensible overall strategy if the team is lacking in player skill, it is not more efficient than dominating the game and pushing the other team deep into their own half. For many users, the opposite seems to be the case in FM - the best teams in the world hardly create anything at all and is easy to stop, while poor teams in poor form seems godlike in their ability to put away their chances. It is arrogant to say that there is something wrong with a tactic that limits the opposition to one or two shots per match over time. That is complete defensive control. This thread has been all about how conceding 50-100% of the chances created by the opposition upsets users because there is nothing that can be done to prevent this from happening, simply because the game does not communicate what is wrong.

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Yup, still a few too many in game though, but not as outlandish as people think. Spurs are averaging like 16 a game IIRC, just of the top of my head.

EDIT: United have had 20+ chances in 4 of their last 6 games. Though I still believe it happens more in FM than IRL.

I can understand it if I'm ManU or Barca or Real or any of the top teams that are in a top condition have these kind chances for some games.

But in FM you can do it with mediocre teams or plain good teams, which is crazy. It has been the bane of the ME for years. If you add the fact that the ME does not represent true action you get a game that shows you an amazing number of quality chances but players are not scoring as they would in rl. It's only logical as a player to complain. As a manager you have to create a tactic that beats the opposition and have chances to score. But in FM you seem to get punished for doing so, unless you know some of the "esoteric"knowledge.

Mind you, I win all the time, that's not my problem. But I want to do it with as much a realistic fashion as possible. Not bombarding teams games after game with chances that in rl could produce 7-0 scores more often than not.

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Man Utd have created loads of chances due to the fact the opposition have just parked the bus. so they create a lot, but not much room for scoring.

FM imo tries to balance stuff out, but does it in such a way it annoys the hell out of everyone. a team camping in thier half for half an hour, concedes to some fluky freak defending?

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Mind you, I win all the time, that's not my problem. But I want to do it with as much a realistic fashion as possible. Not bombarding teams games after game with chances that in rl could produce 7-0 scores more often than not.

But that's easy - don't play a gung ho tactic as a starting point. It is not that hard to overload the opposition with this ME - get fast players to attack through the middle and have everyone else feed through balls to them. This is what most of the plug and play tactics intend to do. It's not hard to create a ton of shots and win most of these games, a match engine weakness no doubt. If you look to play that way you will get certain type of matches and these include the ones where you'll get 30 shots and no goals when the attacking players are off.

Personally I only use attacking and overload strategies only as a desperate resort when I need to score, I play old school wingers instead of inside forwards with full backs overlapping, I don't restrict crosses, long shots and my tactics don't rely on strikers. Playing that way I usually get realistic results with believable match statistics.

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i just won a game 6-1 spent nearly a half bombarding them with corners O.o

i always play attacking, fluid football. i want to have my united team playing like the one in the 8-2 against arsenal.

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Personally I only use attacking and overload strategies only as a desperate resort when I need to score, I play old school wingers instead of inside forwards with full backs overlapping, I don't restrict crosses, long shots and my tactics don't rely on strikers. Playing that way I usually get realistic results with believable match statistics.

I rarely use attack mentality also as play is rushed and good possesion too often wasted for my liking, I much prefer standard but using shouts such as play wider, exploit flanks, looks for overlap, pass into space and work ball into box. I find my chance creation in general is better when I set up like this against weaker sides.

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The AI bases their tactical strategy on Reputation and some other things, like form. If they are underdogs they will play more defensively. Counter-attack strategies employed by the AI are generally better than the attacking strategies imo.

Agree, this is the very nature of football. To break down an opposition, you need to commit players forward, and expose space behind. It is subsequently easier for the opposition to exploit that space should they win back possession and counterattack quickly.

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Games in which I've conceded this season so far:

2 SOT - 1 goal

3 SOT - 2 goals

3 SOT - 1 goal

2 SOT - 1 goal

1 SOT - 1 goal

1 SOT - 1 goal

2 SOT - 1 goal

3 SOT - 1 goal

9 SOT - 2 goals

4 SOT - 2 goals

1 SOT - 1 goal

1 SOT - 1 goal

3 SOT - 1 goal

4 SOT - 3 goal

2 SOT - 1 goal

4 SOT - 2 goals

1 SOT - 1 goal

1 SOT - 1 goal

18 games - 47 SOT - 24 Goals

24/47 = A goal every 0.51 SOT for the AI against me this season.

Is that normal or a worrying rate? Genuine question.

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Games in which I've conceded this season so far:

2 SOT - 1 goal

3 SOT - 2 goals

3 SOT - 1 goal

2 SOT - 1 goal

1 SOT - 1 goal

1 SOT - 1 goal

2 SOT - 1 goal

3 SOT - 1 goal

9 SOT - 2 goals

4 SOT - 2 goals

1 SOT - 1 goal

1 SOT - 1 goal

3 SOT - 1 goal

4 SOT - 3 goal

2 SOT - 1 goal

4 SOT - 2 goals

1 SOT - 1 goal

1 SOT - 1 goal

18 games - 47 SOT - 24 Goals

24/47 = A goal every 0.51 SOT for the AI against me this season.

Is that normal or a worrying rate? Genuine question.

I dont know to be honest, dont know the context in which lies regarding rest of your games, but if the manner of the goals are like the one I said earlier (the one that was better than all of your chances) then that points to an issue where you are constantly giving away good chances.

I would probably be concerned, but then i would look at how the goals were actually scored.

We already know that your tactic can be susceptible to the counter.

How many clean sheets have you had?

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Overall Woj has only 6 clean sheets in 23 games this season which is not good, he concedes a goal a game going by stats. A disappointing season for him and he is not in the form he has been before.

I've noticed quite a few of the goals have been that usual cross the AI smashes into the box and then they tap in, how do you stop that?

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Games in which I've scored this season:

5 SOT - 1 goal

2 SOT - 0 goal

9 SOT - 2 goals

11 SOT - 5 goals

8 SOT - 4 goals

12 SOT - 5 goals - 47 SOT - 17 goals - A goal every 0.36 SOT

10 SOT - 5 goals

6 SOT - 4 goals

6 SOT - 5 goals

11 SOT - 4 goals

4 SOT - 1 goal

5 SOT - 2 goals

7 SOT - 5 goals

8 SOT - 2 goals

4 SOT - 2 goals

11 SOT - 3 goals

10 SOT - 5 goals

4 SOT - 3 goals

10 SOT - 5 goals

8 SOT - 4 goals

4 SOT - 3 goals

2 SOT - 2 goals

3 SOT - 1 goal

160 SOT - 73 Goals

73/160 = A goal every 0.46 SOT

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Overall Woj has only 6 clean sheets in 23 games this season which is not good, he concedes a goal a game going by stats. A disappointing season for him and he is not in the form he has been before.

I've noticed quite a few of the goals have been that usual cross the AI smashes into the box and then they tap in, how do you stop that?

OK that is an issue. a successful counter attack ( in my experience) usually has a very high goal rate, because of course you have bypassed most of the opposition. I'm not a tactical expert (leave that to the likes of Cleon and wwfan among others) but while you are doing well, you seem to be suffering from 2 issues: creating a high number of not so good quality chances, and being punished by good quality chances after getting hit on the counter.

EDIT: Looks like you've partly got over that first issue.

To try and stop that cross, you need to try and prevent your full back getting skinned. Is that cross from their counter? or is from a possession based move?

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Games in which I've scored this season:

5 SOT - 1 goal

2 SOT - 0 goal

9 SOT - 2 goals

11 SOT - 5 goals

8 SOT - 4 goals

12 SOT - 5 goals - 47 SOT - 17 goals - A goal every 0.36 SOT

10 SOT - 5 goals

6 SOT - 4 goals

6 SOT - 5 goals

11 SOT - 4 goals

4 SOT - 1 goal

5 SOT - 2 goals

7 SOT - 5 goals

8 SOT - 2 goals

4 SOT - 2 goals

11 SOT - 3 goals

10 SOT - 5 goals

4 SOT - 3 goals

10 SOT - 5 goals

8 SOT - 4 goals

4 SOT - 3 goals

2 SOT - 2 goals

3 SOT - 1 goal

160 SOT - 73 Goals

73/160 = A goal every 0.46 SOT

How many total shots have you had?

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OK that is an issue. a successful counter attack ( in my experience) usually has a very high goal rate, because of course you have bypassed most of the opposition. I'm not a tactical expert (leave that to the likes of Cleon and wwfan among others) but while you are doing well, you seem to be suffering from 2 issues: creating a high number of not so good quality chances, and being punished by good quality chances after getting hit on the counter.

EDIT: Looks like you've partly got over that first issue.

To try and stop that cross, you need to try and prevent your full back getting skinned. Is that cross from their counter? or is from a possession based move?

How is it you prevent a full back from getting skinned? I've always had that come up in the assistant advice but had no idea how you're supposed to counter it.

It's a mix of both really, at times I'll have many men back but a cross finds it's way into the box and they score from it.

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How is it you prevent a full back from getting skinned? I've always had that come up in the assistant advice but had no idea how you're supposed to counter it.

It's a mix of both really, at times I'll have many men back but a cross finds it's way into the box and they score from it.

I try to stand up the winger, my young full backs aren't the best positionally, so i try to stay on feet, hold him up rather than stay tight and dive in, use a deeper line if need be.

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How many total shots have you had?

Just found this:

VillarrealInformation_Stats.png

163/381 = a SOT every 0.43 shots.

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Just found this:

VillarrealInformation_Stats.png

163/381 = a SOT every 0.43 shots.

Your conversion rate is actually very good, one goal every 5.44 shots.

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Not bad, I guess I just have to try and stop teams from countering me but the AI is so good at converting their chances against me. I mean hell they're getting pretty much a goal every 2 shots on target, just need to find the weak link.

It's especially more frustrating given I usually dominate the teams.

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Not bad, I guess I just have to try and stop teams from countering me but the AI is so good at converting their chances against me. I mean hell they're getting pretty much a goal every 2 shots on target, just need to find the weak link.

It's especially more frustrating given I usually dominate the teams.

The weak point in my view is that tactic is inherently susceptible to the counter, and counters are usually (again in my view) good chances that get converted (hence the 1 in 2). Could be worth putting up some some PKMs of the goals, but it may well be that you might have to sacrifice some attacking verve for some stability. Whether you want to do that is up to you though.

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Just found this:

VillarrealInformation_Stats.png

163/381 = a SOT every 0.43 shots.

Can you do a comparison with all the AI teams in your division?

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you can check each teams individually but not all at once.

Yes. I know that. I was asking if he could check, not if it were possible.

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You can probably stop there. As you can see, none of the AI teams are anywhere near your conversion ratio. You are scoring at 1 goal per 5.44 shots. The best the AI can do is 1 goal per 6.78 shots. You can check the other teams, but I doubt any will touch your conversion ratio.

We can now conclude a few things:

1: The AI is not so much better at finishing.

2: There is no issue at all with your attacking play (in your current tactic).

3: If you are conceding goals at a ratio of greater than 1 in 5.44 shots against, you have a defensive issue.

4: If you aren't, you are a victim of perspective bias.

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Excellent, I guess we conclude it all there.

Nice chatting to you wwfan :) Thank you.

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You can probably stop there. As you can see, none of the AI teams are anywhere near your conversion ratio. You are scoring at 1 goal per 5.44 shots. The best the AI can do is 1 goal per 6.78 shots. You can check the other teams, but I doubt any will touch your conversion ratio.

We can now conclude a few things:

1: The AI is not so much better at finishing.

2: There is no issue at all with your attacking play (in your current tactic).

3: If you are conceding goals at a ratio of greater than 1 in 5.44 shots against, you have a defensive issue.

4: If you aren't, you are a victim of perspective bias.

Well, this is fine and all, but the interesting statistic would be the AI goal/sot ratio against him, not in the fairly randomized matches against each other. This is what the OP and others in this thread have observed, after all. I don't remember if this is the thread where I posted a screenshot of my friend's Chelsea fixtures (using a well-known 4-1-2-3 tactic downloaded from here) where for a month or two every AI shot at goal ended in the net. The first season of this savegame of ours Chech had 20 or so clean sheets in 36 matches and this continued into the second season until 12.2 came about. After that he had like 2 or 3 clean sheets in 20 matches before we discontinued the save. He restricted the opponent to max two or three shots in total per game, but the only way to keep the sheet clean was to prevent shots altogether.

Now, even though it is not an universal issue, the fact that many people experience that their team is in total control of the match, creating dozens of huge chances while restricting the opponent to zero or a few chances but still lose, and that this happens so much that the idea of rubber-banding manifests itself, should set about a bleeping alert message in the heads of the SI game designers and programmers. You are right that these are management issues that could be (and are) avoided, but that is useless information because regardless of the faults of any game the player can overcome them doing the right things. As an analogy imagine a chessboard where one of the squares is a gaping hole and people keep putting a piece there expecting it to stay on the board, but it disappears every time of course. How helpful is it to say "don't put it there, then"? This isn't to say that there is a programming error or game design fault of FM that so many customers experience AI hyperefficiency, but the failure to communicate what is wrong is.

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Well, this is fine and all, but the interesting statistic would be the AI goal/sot ratio against him, not in the fairly randomized matches against each other.

Only if it is far better than 1 goal per 5.44 shots. We already know the AI has a worse goal / shots on target ratio than him (see post # 363).

Unless the AI is scoring at a better rate than 1 in 5.44 against him, the latter half of your post carries no weight, as the feeling that the AI has a better conversion ratio in user matches is completely illusory and merely perception bias. The only issue is that sometimes the AI wins matches in which it has fewer shots, which is a total non-issue in my book. It happens sometimes in real life and it happens sometimes in FM. 'Nuff zed.

If, of course, someone does post a conversion ratio illustrating the user being unfairly disadvantaged, we can then identify what might cause it by looking at tactical settings and pkms, and look at tactical solutions. The OP has already switched to one of "my" tactics, which might be causing a bias in conversion in his favour that wasn't there previously. He might well have been suffering a horrible ratio prior to the switch. If he has an earlier save game, he could check. However, again, it will merely prove there is a tactical solution.

As for your last few comments, I'd agree that the commentary and stats could be made better to help the user understand why he isn't converting. However, the ultimate evidence that something is wrong is the consistent failure to win. For me, that is largely enough in itself.

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Only if it is far better than 1 goal per 5.44 shots. We already know the AI has a worse goal / shots on target ratio than him (see post # 363).

Looking at post #363 & the screen grabs the AI has a statistically significant improved goal per shots on target ratio when playing ArsenalFan.

They also show that his is creating at it's closest point nearly 50% more scoring chances the AI teams over the course of the season so far, in my mind this would indicate a significant imbalance in the match engine due to the tactics he is employing, thankfully for him the imbalance over the whole piece is in his favour.

Edit: Can't believe I never looked at these stats beyond my own team, getting some interesting comparative figures from my game.

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I have to add, with much credit to wwfan, I have played a number of games using my CA system, but I have now set all my attacking players to the default mentalities for this system.

I have since recorded a great run of results, including scoring 6 goals at home against Newcastle and Man Utd! So, in a paradoxical way, attacking mentalities can have an adverse affect on a players ability to score goals.

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Looking at post #363 & the screen grabs the AI has a statistically significant improved goal per shots on target ratio when playing ArsenalFan.

They also show that his is creating at it's closest point nearly 50% more scoring chances the AI teams over the course of the season so far, in my mind this would indicate a significant imbalance in the match engine due to the tactics he is employing, thankfully for him the imbalance over the whole piece is in his favour.

Edit: Can't believe I never looked at these stats beyond my own team, getting some interesting comparative figures from my game.

Agree that the stats suggest the OP has some serious defensive issues, which he compensates for with his efficiency in attack.

I aso posted while he was uploading his last screenshot, which has an AI team with a 1 in 5.88 conversion ratio, so my original post was slightly misleading. Even so, the OP converts at a better rate than any AI team.

Worth noting that these ratios are better than you'd expect in real life.

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OK, I want to leave the issue alone but I just don't get it.

You'd think I'd have a conference level goalkeeper and a league 2 standard defence the way I concede so simply. When in fact I have quite the opposite, one of the greatest goalkeepers in the world and easily one of the best defences.

Watching me concede like this is like seeing Barcelona in real life hit on the break and simply conceding every 1 in 2 shots that are on target.

VillarrealvBarcelonaStats_MatchStats.png

VillarrealvBarcelonaAnalysis_Analysis-2.png

VillarrealvBarcelonaAnalysis_Analysis.png

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So what, basically I have to just prevent shots altogether to stop conceding?

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We'd need to see clips of the goals, for all we know the majority of goals you concede could be from counter attacks when you're chasing a needless 3rd or 4th goal & set-pieces.

Context is everything.

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So what, basically I have to just prevent shots altogether to stop conceding?

You have to design a tactic that isn't vulnerable to counterattacks. What tactic are you using now? I mean formation + team and individual instructions.

Edit: if you upload it I can try it in a match to get first impressions.

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We'd need to see clips of the goals, for all we know the majority of goals you concede could be from counter attacks when you're chasing a needless 3rd or 4th goal & set-pieces.

Context is everything.

Edit: One thing I have noticed is that you do not get all that many corners, for such an attacking team this is somewhat surprising.

I'm trying to upload their goals but it's not letting me atm.

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I haven't seen a formation like that since the old left-sided sweeper.

It looks like you must at all costs retain possession of the ball otherwise your defence will get overrun, who've actually only got 3 players on the field in primarily defensive positions & one of those is your keeper.

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Could you upload the pkm of that Barca match?

http://www.mediafire.com/?twjlnrm3pubx2cj

Obviously the thing that stands out for the goals is the horrific defending and it's self explanatory how they're able to score, albeit lucky that those were there only 2 chances that were on target.

I haven't seen a formation like that since the old left-sided sweeper.

It looks like you must at all costs retain possession of the ball otherwise your defence will get overrun, who've actually only got 3 players on the field in primarily defensive positions & one of those is your keeper.

It is a bit of an insane formation, based upon that totalvoetball tactic.

Alright, I'll give that a shot, cheers.

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And fwiw we have conceded the least in the league, 17 in 25.

Whilst we score the most with 78 in 25.

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whyarsenalfanconcedesev.png

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

This is why you concede goals. Why on earth use a Libero behind ONE defender? They just stand on each other's toes without doing anything worthwhile the whole match. You are sluicing their strikers into the two channels where their chances of scoring are the highest. No wonder the defending is terrible. The attacking play is really good, though, although I think that central MC should have very defensive tasks if he is not dropped into the DMC position. The poor CD's will be keeping the fort alone all day...

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