bullybeef

Open goal experiment

88 posts in this topic

I watched football for over 30 years, and never use trigonometry and geometry to rationalise misses. I frequently visit football forums and if Bells missed that chance, the supporters would have gone crazy. And as a fan, I'm obviously going to be biased because I want good chances to go in. It is starting to seem that if one opinion strays from the majority, you are lynched on here. Yet football in general is all about opinions. How odd.

And 50 posts in now and only 2 people have understood the thread and posted examples! What has got on ppls goat with this thread? Talk about touchy. If I've hit a nerve somewhere, I apologise. I just wanted to see examples of similar misses, which I said at the top of the page, that's all. I think they are ridiculously funny, after you get over the initial shock of the miss. My OP screenshot was an example, I didn't think it would to be scrutinized. I just thought he should have scored, but it's a computer game and he missed. I thought it would have given ppl a laugh. Being the positive person I am, I'm much prefer to analyse the goals, not the misses.

I don't get it.

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wasn't an open goal, but i had a player run towards goal, from the wings, then somehow managed to hit it at a 90 degree angle, wide. O.O wasn't anywhere near the goal, which was infront of him.

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Perhaps i can help you figure out why seemingly no one is taking your side on this issue (assuming there are even "sides" to an "issue" here).

It could be the persistent contradictions, such as:

Being the positive person I am, I'm much prefer to analyse the goals, not the misses.
I am more interested to see how often the AI misses these kinda chances.

Then you comment that you're being belittled, not before saying this to a moderator:

if you deeply believe that elements of the game really do simulate RL events, which you quite scarily do (I think you should see go and someone about that)

If you can take a shot at someone, don't moan when they choose to fire back!

If you meant for this thread to be funny, you should try a little harder to convey that message at the start. Specifically, you shouldn't use the word "infuriating" to describe the game situation you're asking us to upload, as it removes any doubt that there is a negative motive to your request.

If you want my opinion about why this happens, i think the game simply calculates the percent chance of the shot going on target based on whatever factors SI have put into the engine. It will NEVER offer a 100% chance of the shot going on target, nor will it ever provide a 0% chance for any situation. Your given situation, even at 97%, still misses 3 out of 100 times. If the game's random number generator happens to catch the 3% chance of a miss, the match engine will show you a missed shot. I don't think it literally fires a ball at a stick figure and sees which angle it flys off; the number generator and probabilities are more likely to me.

(Side note: i created a debatably popular basketball game for TI-86 calculators when i was in high school, and the best way i could simulate passing/scoring/etc, was to use probability and a random number generator, so it just makes sense to me that it is what this match engine would use it as well, but in an obviously more intricate way than my crappy game!)

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Very well said Chas.

And to the best of my knowledge (which is limited, I'm a moderator, not SI staff), you've explained quite accurately how the match engine deals with things.

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Cleon, while there is no issue with players missing easy chances and the odd open goal going begging (I love this tbh), let's not pretend that was anything other than a simple chance for a professional striker who has played many games at the highest level.

It's a sitter missed, nothing more, and the game is better for it!

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Interesting analysis Cleon, for me i think the fact that its a volley, rather than passing into the goal, makes it a more difficult chance and not an easy one. Although i'd have been annoyed if a more techinally gifted player had missed that.

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Cleon, while there is no issue with players missing easy chances and the odd open goal going begging (I love this tbh), let's not pretend that was anything other than a simple chance for a professional striker who has played many games at the highest level.

It's a sitter missed, nothing more, and the game is better for it!

It is by no means a cast iron chance. Certainly a good one, but, according to research on chance conversion, it would be borderline as to whether it was considered one that should be converted more than not. In real life of course, the keeper would be much further across his goal, which would make it tougher. The main bugs in the chance are keeper positioning and the lack of willingness for the Liverpool players to get between the posts for the cross, not the missed conversion.

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It is by no means a cast iron chance. Certainly a good one, but, according to research on chance conversion, it would be borderline as to whether it was considered one that should be converted more than not. In real life of course, the keeper would be much further across his goal, which would make it tougher. The main bugs in the chance are keeper positioning and the lack of willingness for the Liverpool players to get between the posts for the cross, not the missed conversion.

Two things sprang to mind, Gomes' totall lack of reaction, and Bale beforehand when Gerrard gets the ball to cross it in. He gets there comfortably first seeing the danger from Gerrard, but then makes no attempt to boot it into touch. Dont know if this is an in game error from Bale, or an ME or animation issue. But I would have thought he would have put that out for a corner. In real life i would have expected him to put that straight out as he has little room to turn and make an up pitch clearance.

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Making up excuses that why he misses, like we do IRL, really cannot come into it, because it's a simulation..

They're not excuses - the match engine has simulated those things actually happening to the player.

I have the feeling that you believe the match engine generates a score and then randomly assigns animations to it. This is not what happens.

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Not an open goal but I think the following clips does show up where the current tactical instruction system fails.

As a brief overview I'm looking to close out a 2-0 win so my team is set to a 'very fluid' 'counter' style with short passing, default CF & more roaming with very low tempo.

The player [Wright] who spurns the chance is set as an attacking defensive forward with all sliders set to the grey default position expect for 'run from deep' which is set at 'sometimes', his role has a primary default function of providing chances for other players which in this instance has resulted in an excellent goal scoring chance going begging.

[video=youtube;wxzZlOU-wdY]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxzZlOU-wdY

What I do not understand is why after losing his marker would he choose to play low percentage reverse angle pass instead of choosing to bear down on goal in the gap that has been created as this has a much lower degree of difficulty & a much higher probability of success? Even the other CB who is closing down the gap presents a low risk as his momentum makes him easy to beat with a move to his left side.

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I just witnessed a really weird decision in a similar vein.

Gerrard was free in the PA, 12 yrds out, slightly to the right of the Pen Spot. Ball comes to him slowly from the right, and facing the direction of the ball, he passes it 30 yrds back out of the PA with his weaker foot to no one, rather than turning and striking it with his good foot towards the near post. Obviously that won't go down on the stats as a chance, but it was a glaring one.

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Tenuous link as the goal was an easy tap-in but it shows another common problem with the current ME.

The chap in goal is Germany's #1 & he's set as an attacking sweeper keeper, despite his undoubted ability rather than attack the wide open space to gather up the low flighted cross he runs away from what would be an easy catch back to his line & gives the forward an easy tap-in.

[video=youtube;Pu8eOcgSN7Q]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pu8eOcgSN7Q

I might add that I'm on a run of inexplicable results with defenders making rare mistakes to give away late goals or penalties & all of a sudden my players are struggling to hit a barn door from 2 yards so this might all just be sour grapes on my part.

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Tenuous link as the goal was an easy tap-in but it shows another common problem with the current ME.

The chap in goal is Germany's #1 & he's set as an attacking sweeper keeper, despite his undoubted ability rather than attack the wide open space to gather up the low flighted cross he runs away from what would be an easy catch back to his line & gives the forward an easy tap-in.

[video=youtube;Pu8eOcgSN7Q]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pu8eOcgSN7Q

I might add that I'm on a run of inexplicable results with defenders making rare mistakes to give away late goals or penalties & all of a sudden my players are struggling to hit a barn door from 2 yards so this might all just be sour grapes on my part.

Not sure if its an issue, or an error on his part, but he doesnt recognise the threat early. In fairness it is a superb ball into that "corridor of uncertainly" but for him to claim it, he needs to be moving incredibly early, almost before the ball crosses the edge of the 18 yard box. Still think sweeper keepers need some work, so maybe it isnt sour grapes :D

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If you actually look at the position he initially takes up the ball trajectory takes it right into his hands, making the extra movement to his line is a killer & then doing nothing once the cross was put in ended all hope.

Like you say it was a well picked out cross & run though.

Edit: Not sure about the corridor of uncertainly though, that really needs defenders running towards goal to make it work.

Edit 2: Missed the fact you were taking about him sweeping up the through ball, not sure he ever had a chance but that is due to his starting position being incorrect for the role that has been assigned to him.

When the pass to the winger was made he was standing on the penalty spot whereas as a sweeper keeper behind a high defensive line (tactical changes had not taken effect, another annoyance) he should have been a good 10 yards outside the area & maybe even a little to his left as that was the side the ball was on in the attacking third.

Somewhat annoyingly he was the correct distance out about 10 seconds earlier having just taken a free-kick.

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I see things like those every game. I keep banging on about the ME being horrifically poor but that is because some of the decisions players make on the game. I'm in a save now and my defenders are actually making me angry lol. I don't understand why they are making decisions a 5 year old kid would make. What am I doing in player instructions for them to do this? I have no clue. 'Lower creative freedom so your defenders do this', help like that etc. bemuses me. I literally want to tell my defenders to close down but not stupidly. Yes I want you to press but not two players on the same player and leaving a man free! That is just one instance. There are a million more and anybody who says they don't have them either don't understand defending or are bllnd to it through their denial of the ME having those type of faults.

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The thing is as I stated earlier I do not mess about with the sliders, these two examples are based on the default behaviour settings in the TC.

As a retired defender watching FM has often been a painful process of annoyance, disbelief & utter amazement (not the good kind).

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The thing is as I stated earlier I do not mess about with the sliders, these two examples are based on the default behaviour settings in the TC.

As a retired defender watching FM has often been a painful process of annoyance, disbelief & utter amazement (not the good kind).

Keepers, i can relate to. I'm not sure about them coming off their line. But I havent seen anything like that pass you showed.

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As someone who watches the full match I could spend all day putting together highlight packages of odd decision making in each & every game, I'm just pleased that those who matter have decided that a major overhaul is needed.

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Totally agree Barside. The whole dynamic of tactics into the ME are so disjointed and out of sync. I think the sliders need to go somehow. Me giving my defenders an idea of when to close down through sliders doesn't tell them to pivot or not. I mean, pivot defending is the basis of defending that this game doesn't understand. Also, players not cutting out passing lanes is so annoying. I just question the ppl who say it doesn't happen.

I too use the TC, with minor adjustments, it still doesn't make the decision making better.

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Tenuous link as the goal was an easy tap-in but it shows another common problem with the current ME.

The chap in goal is Germany's #1 & he's set as an attacking sweeper keeper, despite his undoubted ability rather than attack the wide open space to gather up the low flighted cross he runs away from what would be an easy catch back to his line & gives the forward an easy tap-in.

[video=youtube;Pu8eOcgSN7Q]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pu8eOcgSN7Q

I might add that I'm on a run of inexplicable results with defenders making rare mistakes to give away late goals or penalties & all of a sudden my players are struggling to hit a barn door from 2 yards so this might all just be sour grapes on my part.

I'd blame your defenders instead of the keeper.

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Funny you're discussing GKs, I've just viewed a reserve game, were my players were taking on a very low strength team, but in this occasion, the away keeper decided to run towards where he thought a low cross was going, but when it deflected off one of his defenders, and back to my player, he carried on running completely away from the goal leaving it totally unguarded for a simple tap in. It was inexplicable. :D

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If you actually look at the position he initially takes up the ball trajectory takes it right into his hands, making the extra movement to his line is a killer & then doing nothing once the cross was put in ended all hope.

Like you say it was a well picked out cross & run though.

Edit: Not sure about the corridor of uncertainly though, that really needs defenders running towards goal to make it work.

Edit 2: Missed the fact you were taking about him sweeping up the through ball, not sure he ever had a chance but that is due to his starting position being incorrect for the role that has been assigned to him.

When the pass to the winger was made he was standing on the penalty spot whereas as a sweeper keeper behind a high defensive line (tactical changes had not taken effect, another annoyance) he should have been a good 10 yards outside the area & maybe even a little to his left as that was the side the ball was on in the attacking third.

Somewhat annoyingly he was the correct distance out about 10 seconds earlier having just taken a free-kick.

Yep, this is where I personally think there is an issue with Sweeper keepers. I could be wrong though, but that's my feeling.

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I'd blame your defenders instead of the keeper.

In my book you're spot on & it's due to another common problem with FM in that FB/WB all too often drift inside, I actually had them set to tightly man mark yet the LB gave up far too much space to the winger & my CB's would have been given a proper dressing down for being caught ball watching alas the game will not let me focus on individual defensive lapses which is something I've mentioned in the past.

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In my book you're spot on & it's due to another common problem with FM in that FB/WB all too often drift inside, I actually had them set to tightly man mark yet the LB gave up far too much space to the winger & my CB's would have been given a proper dressing down for being caught ball watching alas the game will not let me focus on individual defensive lapses which is something I've mentioned in the past.

Would love to have that as an option. Definitely deserve a dressing down.

Its a good goal on their part, but how good defensively is your fullback, looks like he lost concentration, while the winger just dropped a couple of yards off him, which was all he need as he turned and reacted quicker than your full back.

I'd be spitting feathers if i conceded a goal like that.

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He's a Czech international so no mug.

Concentration:15

Decisions: 15

Positioning: 16 (ha!)

Anticipation: 13

To act in his defence the guy out wide (a striker I sold 2 years ago :mad: ) had only just come on so getting done for pace is not a disgrace as he was/is lightning over 5 yards so I could forgive him initially dropping off (not that the ME can replicate this level of independent thought by the player) but to create the space by drifting inside is illogical.

As I said further up this gaol was as a result of HSV pushing up to get the equaliser & my changes to be more conservative were still sitting in a pending status which is a major flaw in the ME, intelligent players should be more reactive to tactical changes by the opposition & the certainly shouldn't blindly wait until I tell them to tighten up at the back or compact the midfield to deny space.

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Just as a side point, who came up with the term 'corridor of uncertainty' and can we punish him for it?

It's almost as bad as when I heard a commentator call a cross 'delicious' for the first time. Darn pundits :D

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I actually think it was Geoff Boycott who first used it in respect to deliveries wide of off stump, do you stay safe & leave it or take a swing at it & risk a nick to the slips?

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I actually think it was Geoff Boycott who first used it in respect to deliveries wide of off stump, do you stay safe & leave it or take a swing at it & risk a nick to the slips?

Yeah I'm pretty sure it came from cricket.

But on the goal, i agree not sure what he is doing running inside (trying to block the delivery maybe? which he hugely failed at anyway), he should be trying hustle him all the way. Although he looks fairly beaten regardless.

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I actually think it was Geoff Boycott who first used it in respect to deliveries wide of off stump, do you stay safe & leave it or take a swing at it & risk a nick to the slips?

If it came from another sport i'll let them off, I presumed someone had simply said it once at a match and it had stuck! Makes much more sense with the cricket scenario.

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It kinda looks like the issue is during the first phase of the move, if you pause it on 9 seconds you can see the guy on the bottom of the screen completely free and it kinda seems like your left back is watching him, the obvious pass is to that player not the one the opp ends up making that takes out your entire back line, which i must say is very very high up the pitch, your centre backs are also a few yards deeper than the full backs and it gives that player the yard of space he needs. I dont really think, unless your keeper is a track sprinter, he would ever get to that its going out too wide. From there its just a case of him not expecting the kind of cross thats coming in, if he stays on his 6 yard box and its a high cross it prob goes over his head, if its a low cross he gets it. An annoying goal to lose, but i dont think its the keepers fault as such.

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If a ball goes across your defence like that and the goalkeeper leaves it, he gets dropped for the next game. In this game, it wouldn't be percieved as a mistake, it'd simply go down as a good goal. That's what they need to work on in the next ME, screening things like that out if possible.

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It kinda looks like the issue is during the first phase of the move, if you pause it on 9 seconds you can see the guy on the bottom of the screen completely free and it kinda seems like your left back is watching him, the obvious pass is to that player not the one the opp ends up making that takes out your entire back line, which i must say is very very high up the pitch, your centre backs are also a few yards deeper than the full backs and it gives that player the yard of space he needs. I dont really think, unless your keeper is a track sprinter, he would ever get to that its going out too wide. From there its just a case of him not expecting the kind of cross thats coming in, if he stays on his 6 yard box and its a high cross it prob goes over his head, if its a low cross he gets it. An annoying goal to lose, but i dont think its the keepers fault as such.

So by moving to a position that gives him next to a 0% chance of making a save from one where he has a better than 50% chance of gathering a cross he's not made a mistake & one that is repeated quite often under the current ME.

As for the sweeping up of the ball we've already covered that point & it is more than obvious that the ME does not treat the role correctly, as per my earlier post baaed on his starting position he wouldn't stand a chance of getting the ball but had he been in the correct covering position for the admittedly high line then he would have easily made the clearance.

To sum up that sequence;

Was it a good attacking goal? Yes

Were there flaws in my defence? Yes however I maintain that is a weakness of the ME & tactical interface with it's reliance on me issuing finite instructions to action a change in mentality late on, players should naturally be more cautions at this stage of the game.

Did the keeper make the wrong decision to move from the position he initially took up? Yes

With the decision to move taken should he have gone to his line or closed down the player on the ball? Close down, all day, every day.

Can we rationalise the decision he made? Just about but I'll come back with more of the same from other keepers in the game when dealing with crosses that traverse the 6 yard line or do not enter the 6 yard box.

Is the keeper in the wrong starting position in the first place? Yes & he always will be which is a flaw in the ME

Want to take a go at Wright's decision not to go for goal in the earlier clip?

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Im not having a go or being overly defensive here, im just giving my thoughts on the vid!

Care to post a screen shot of the guys stats before i have a go?

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Now you're being defensive :D

LB or GK btw?

As you now I'm not looking for a full scale tactical debate with advice on how to avoid this situation, my main point was to highlight issues surrounding GK's & that decision making consistently lacks any logic.

Another clip I uploaded shows a perfect example of a sweeper keeper not doing his job correctly despite SI's ascertain shortly after release that GK's were behaving as expected & in a realistic manner, simply put they are a key weakness in the ME as is general defending.

Here's the clip of my sweeper keeper doing exactly the opposite of what his role requires, the position is & always has been broken (ignore what my players are doing, for some reason the entire defence decided to ignore their set-piece & D-line position instructions).

[video=youtube;y7YDo3I3k4M]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7YDo3I3k4M

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No attributes of the guy who didnt run through on goal with the ball.

I wasnt going to offer you any tactical advice, your prob know more about that side of things than i do! :)

I cant watch the vids at work, but ill have a look at the other one on my lunch break.

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Ha. Love where Barsides keeper watches the striker run onto the ball before starting to close down.

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In the past 3 games I've seen the AI miss 2 open goal opportunities from rebounds, snatched on them.

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