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Ched

February - The point of tactical uselessness? - worrying statistics

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Saumyajit:
I hardly believe that the slump is caused by fatigue or weather. I have experienced two slumps in all my seasons so far. One comes about after I have played my 19th league game(midway through the league campaign), the other comes at about the 30-31 game point.

What gets me out of this is a change in tactics. The change is minimal, the formation remains the same, i only change some arrows and some player and team intructions slightly.

What I am doing right now is to play the season like this.

League games 1-19: Tactic A
League games 20-30: Tactic B
League games 31-38: Tactic A

The slumps are almost non existant using this scheme. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

I think i made this point earlier - when i noticed a drop in finishing %, i immediately changed tactics and voila, the slump vanished...

Which is why i suggested that weather and fatigue weren't the main controls.

It could be, however, that my B fmt is simply better suited to grim weather - something i may have to look into.

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From what I have seen, it seems if you have a good team/good tactic which gives you consistent results the mid season triggers a slump, and probably it is triggered at a later point as well. When I have played with a not too strng team like Birmingham I have seen the slump happen earlier. But with strong teams like Juventus or Arsenal it seems there is a point beyond which the AI won't let you do well unless you change things. It seems that this is the guard against the employment of a super tactic. The amazing predictability with which this happens at exactly the same point every season makes it hard to think otherwise.

This is manifested in the match engine by factors like your strikers missing one on ones, the AI scoring ratio getting increased, and I dare say, you getting injuries to several players in a particular position.

It would seem that I am a conspiracy theorist, but unfortunately I am yet to see a season that has gone otherwise. If there was an amount of randomness to the occurence of the slump I would have thought otherwise, but what I have seen so dfar, it is largely predictable.

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Saumyajit:
I hardly believe that the slump is caused by fatigue or weather. I have experienced two slumps in all my seasons so far. One comes about after I have played my 19th league game(midway through the league campaign), the other comes at about the 30-31 game point.

What gets me out of this is a change in tactics. The change is minimal, the formation remains the same, i only change some arrows and some player and team intructions slightly.

What I am doing right now is to play the season like this.

League games 1-19: Tactic A
League games 20-30: Tactic B
League games 31-38: Tactic A

The slumps are almost non existant using this scheme. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>
i agree, playing like that is how I took my best results. But often is better playing A-B-A-B more often, not only two changes over all season.

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Just dipping into this thread quickly - but one thing you don't seem to have considered is weather ... was the weather considerably different during the two statistical analysis's?

I ask because the tactic I prefer to employ generally does well so long as the pitches are in reasonable condition however if the pitches are muddy it bobgs down and while I still perform 'well' (ie. I'm still in contention for all comps) there is a definite drop off in performance on those pitches.

(My tactic is fairly defensive and aimed at hitting on the break - hence boggy pitches make runs and dribbling harder work which explains my problems in those conditions ... possibly a similar (but potentially different) scenario might explain your issues?)

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Marc Vaughan:
Just dipping into this thread quickly - but one thing you don't seem to have considered is weather ... was the weather considerably different during the two statistical analysis's?

I ask because the tactic I prefer to employ generally does well so long as the pitches are in reasonable condition however if the pitches are muddy it bobgs down and while I still perform 'well' (ie. I'm still in contention for all comps) there is a definite drop off in performance on those pitches.

(My tactic is fairly defensive and aimed at hitting on the break - hence boggy pitches make runs and dribbling harder work which explains my problems in those conditions ... possibly a similar (but potentially different) scenario might explain your issues?) </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

I quote myself:

"2) Weather. The reduction in chances created could be due to the poorer weather..." so yes, it was considered.

My argument is that rain and mud shouldn't make average AI strikers 170% more likely to score.

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Ched:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by wwfan:
And by Feb? What is it in manager reputation? National, Continental, World Class?

And weaker teams did use farrows pre-slump, or never used farrows? </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Sorry i should have been more clear;

Feb - rep was continental.

Weaker teams seemed to use farrows at home (borough and everton etc) pre feb, but then stopped using them feb onwards. They did not always use them pre-feb though. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

You should be able, in conjunction with the weather issues, be able to put two and two together with this information.

Scenario: Form good, reputation rises, opposition teams begin to play differently against you and the weather worsens.

Action to be taken: ???

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by wwfan:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Ched:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by wwfan:
And by Feb? What is it in manager reputation? National, Continental, World Class?

And weaker teams did use farrows pre-slump, or never used farrows? </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Sorry i should have been more clear;

Feb - rep was continental.

Weaker teams seemed to use farrows at home (borough and everton etc) pre feb, but then stopped using them feb onwards. They did not always use them pre-feb though. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

You should be able, in conjunction with the weather issues, be able to put two and two together with this information.

Scenario: Form good, reputation rises, opposition teams begin to play differently against you and the weather worsens.

Action to be taken: ??? </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Sorry, i thought it was clear...

[B]I fully acknowledge action needs to be taken - as i said, i fluctuate between several tactics to avoid this problem[/B]

My point is that the AI finishing should not jump by 170% when the chances the AI creates DO NOT CHANGE IN QUALITY.

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It would be interesting to see the effects of weather in the AI's finishing as well.

Theoretically, one would assume that weather would affect both the human and the AI finishers. However, we have this 170% increase figure to explain. In other words, when it rains it should rain for both. If the decrease in human efficiency is due, or affected by weather, we should be observing a similar dip in AI teams when affected by bad weather.

Naturally, the obvious counter to this way of thinking is saying that the AI adapts to bad weather and the human doesn't. Or that the AI does a better job at adapting, therefore its finishing does not suffer.

Three problems with this:

1- The way of adapting to bad weather is obviously unclear, since it's evident that few human players manage to overcome this. If the "solution" to bad weather was truly to simply adopt a more direct style, it would've been found and adopted by the playerbase years ago.

2- Depending on what this adaptation actually should be, and how many changes the human player is required to make, it does go quite a bit against the grain of the common wisdom advice (dispensed by the game itself as well in its hints) of giving teams time to gel and understand instructions. We either don't change a thing and let the team gel, or we adapt to bad weather and the game's own advice is just wrong and misleading.

3- As with most other things regarding AI team performance, it does seem an AI team is an AI team, and all AI teams - regardless of their reputation, manager quality and player characteristics - are able to adapt. Reality indicates that this is not so, and all around the world teams will find it more or less challenging to adapt. No two teams are the same. However, in FM, all AI teams seem to know how to do it.

The 170% figure, despite all this, is troubling whether it is weather-related or not. It's a huge disparity that makes no sense, nor has any correlation to real life, observable football.

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">1- The way of adapting to bad weather is obviously unclear, since it's evident that few human players manage to overcome this. If the "solution" to bad weather was truly to simply adopt a more direct style, it would've been found and adopted by the playerbase years ago. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

There was a long post about playing in bad weather for FM07. Basically, stop with all the short passing and dribbling. As I recall, it was largely ignored.

Ched: how about condition? When does the AI score? Could their bad weather tactics be generally more condition efficient and thus chances near the end of the game are more likely to be scored due to a stamina/pace/strength advantage that they don't have in the rest of the season? That would begin to explain the jump in performance efficiency.

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by wwfan:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">1- The way of adapting to bad weather is obviously unclear, since it's evident that few human players manage to overcome this. If the "solution" to bad weather was truly to simply adopt a more direct style, it would've been found and adopted by the playerbase years ago. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

There was a long post about playing in bad weather for FM07. Basically, stop with all the short passing and dribbling. As I recall, it was largely ignored.

Ched: how about condition? When does the AI score? Could their bad weather tactics be generally more condition efficient and thus chances near the end of the game are more likely to be scored due to a stamina/pace/strength advantage that they don't have in the rest of the season? That would begin to explain the jump in performance efficiency. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

It's more often than not (3 to 1) the first shot on target - which occurred withing the first 20mins or so.

So i would not think condition should be a factor - although that could explain why when going all out in the last 10mins, they aren't too effective.

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I know where there is a thread on bad weather matches, but unfortunately it is not on the SIG site. It might help you to pinpoint how you are conceding and why you can't score.

If you are interested in accessing it mail me and I'll see if I can get permission to send you a copy.

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