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AI Experiment - what would happen if?


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Originally posted by Wanson:

This experiment has been going on a long time now, great work btw kip. In all that time The Bandits haven't even come close to a league title.

There's got to be something wrong with the AI there. The Bandits have limitless transfer funds, massive fan support, a humongous stadium, excellent training and youth facilities and the reputation to entice nearly any superstar player to the club. How can a club like that not come even close to a title in over 30 years?

If a human player were to take control of the club they'd win the league within 2 seasons easy. If a human player had been playing from the start they'd have won the Premier League within 10 years from the start.

The AI has failed this experiment miserably IMO.

while it is true that the club has underachieved they did have one season where they lost the title on goal difference. the league is artificially close though as any team can beat any team which i presume is to do with the quality of the managers

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actually just remembered something. it isn't it more related to the level of detail the game is running in. because of this you can get the shock results and i guess it makes it more difficult for a team to build a winning streak as anyone can beat anyone. this is how scotland and belguim have become world champions and welling won the fa cup. i think a conclusion had been drawn that the bandits would probably have done better if higher detail was selected as their financial muscle may influence more than their reputation and lack of ambition....

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Kip, I've just been having a read through the first post you made again as I've not read it since it was first written. While reading it occurred to me that now, since all the original players have finally retired, would be a perfect time to post answers to all the questions you asked in the second post.

Apologies if this has already been posted but I've read this thread from day one and can't remember it.

And I'm not being lazy by not trawling through the thread and posting answers to all the questions myself, I just thought it would be better coming from you.

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Originally posted by chopper99:

The new manager isn't any better and I have a horrible feeling we'll see at least one of the star players sold over the summer. Without European football to tempt them it's also going to be more difficult to replace the players that just aren't good enough.

If it makes you feel any better, the best few players (Rubio, Birchall etc) have their sale price set to around 70m, so they aren't likely to leave just yet.

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Originally posted by Mravac Kid:

Also, England seems to always breeze through their qualifiers without conceeding. When was the last time they conceeded in the qualis? And what's their longest clean stretch?

Meanwhile, Italy continue to bring doom to their fantastic world-beaters... Bucci seems to be destined to follow Lupo into an internationally dry career.

I think its because the games aren't run on full detail that the qualifiers are so very predictable, which isn't helping the stars playing with smaller nations (Abdulkadir and Strand spring to mind) because their countries don't often qualify. That's one thing that will be rectified for FM09.

As for England, they've only conceded in one qualifying campaign in the last forty years, which is clearly ridiculous. The partial detail setup was flawed at this point, I'm already looking forward to the next experiment because every match is every one of the considerable selected leagues, and all the internationals, will be played on full detail.

The landscape of the world should change considerably.

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Originally posted by JRHaggs:

Additionally, I'm afraid the young Harry Harper has neither the speed or aerial prowess to ever be a star Premiership striker. If he can get the right price, Robbie Way should move him along, I think.

He's not wonderful, but he could be a decent squad player, unless the new manager brings in some more youth. What worries me is that he's the only half decent youngster at the club.

To me, the squad is actually in less dire shape than you've suggested, Kip. Replacing Schweinsteiger and Aizpurua should be enough to create a devastating side. Aizpurua especially needs replacing. I feel like Lopez and Christie (and Haaland, too a lesser degree) should still be good players.

Christie's a good player, certainly, and once he settles in he should be absolutely fine. Haaland's been excellent up to this season but lost 13 CA this year and saw his performances plummet. While he's still okay right now, he's only going to get worse, and at his alarming rate of decline he might be a liability in a year's time.

Lopez is better than his CA suggests but even he doesn't convince me - at 29 he is declining rapidly, like Haaland, as I've found wingers drop first, usually at about 27.

Basically, with Haaland and Lopez, they're okay as long as their replacements are signed now and given time to bed in. Otherwise, with the age of the squad, the Bandits will be screwed in 2-3 years.

Welling is the new Bandits, I think. How does their board stack up against the Bandits'?

Surprisingly enough, they're even worse than the Bandits - they have a General Manager with a CA of 0, and a Director with a CA of 9. They've lost their good managers now, they've jumped up the divisions, so I would be surprised to see them continue to rise.

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Originally posted by JRHaggs:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by JRHaggs:

Didn't Spurs have some prodigious Turk at the helm early on?

Actually, it was Turgay Tufan, who managed Portsmouth, then Liverpool, then Man City, ...

I can only assume he's Turkish. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Yes, he was Turkish, and occasionally a non-English manager is appointed, but they don't stay long in general, Tufan being the exception.

Again, this could be an issue with only running the English leagues - one to examine more closely in FM09.

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Originally posted by wisescummer:

It does seem that the standard of international football has gotten worse. There, never seem to be any shocks, or even a side from outside Europe doing well. Kip, have any non-obvious sides done well in the world cup (I know about Scotland and Belgium)?

No, not other than those two. The countries that qualify are predictable because I'm not running the qualifiers on full detail, so you never get a little nation qualifying, or Spain/Italy/France missing out.

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Originally posted by 5ergio:

Kip, may I request the other Turkish player's profile over 180+ and where abouts are Turkish teams in Europen coefficients?

That has sparked an enquiry I'd like to make Kip.

Could you post a screenshot or breakdown of the European co-efficients by nation?

With only running the English leagues, it'd be interesting to see where England stands in the co-efficient leagues and how other nations have fared and whether there has been much movement in the leagues.

For example, if Spain or Italy dropped out the top three or a different nation other than England, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, or Spain occupied one of the top six places.

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Originally posted by VonBlade:

Finally looks like we've some team stability. And for the first time in almost ever it's the middle of the park that we struggle in rather than the wide positions. What a fantastic strike pairing too. The decent rep should see us hold onto them for a while and hopefully these Uefa runs should boost us to the point we can poach others. It's starting but not quite there.

They're not a million miles off, and yes, the Bandits have always been strong down the spine, and weak in the wide areas, so it is a little odd to see it the other way around.

The main thing I'm worried about is the age of the squad.

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Originally posted by JRHaggs:

Is it possible that the enormous bankroll has preserved the Bandits' board's reign artificially? Could it be that the crap-tacular managerial situation is due to the protracted rule of what should be a non-league board? I think there may be something to this.

Nail. Head. Hit. I've been thinking about this too, and it does seem that the board are so absolutely hopelessly useless that only the sheer riches of the club are keeping them in a stable top half position. Without the money surely they'd be falling away.

That was my first thought. So let's have a look at the boards, with my next post....

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Board comparisons

Bandits chairman is Danny Nurse (52, 95/96), who at first glance looks a bit rubbish. But his CA, surprisingly, is the 7th best in the league. Top is Spurs chairman Richard Connett (60, 146/164), all the way down to West Ham's Jon Stott (62, 4/4). Yes, Stott has 4 CA.

So why do the board seem so bad? Well, remember how reputation plays an enormous part in the game? (When the next issue of the Bootroom comes out, incidentally, I'll be examining this more closely) Does the same occur for chairmen?

Danny Nurse comes 15th in the Premiership table of chairmen, with 1440. Top is Sheff Wed's Dave Greenwood, with 4278.

Is it possible that Nurse simply can't attract the best managers, rather than it being a case of him choosing badly?

The story is no better when we look at the directors:

Adam Murphy (37, 65/65), reputation: 975

Matthew Bolder (53, 44/44), reputation: 510

Alan Friend (34, 21/21), reputation: 105

And the director of football:

Gary Winters (36, 3/3), reputation: 15.

Clearly their ability is hopeless. But some of the other clubs have shocking boards too. But the point is - the Bandits have reputation against them.

I just don't think they can attract the right staff. We need a takeover.

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Originally posted by Meitheisman:

And what everyone said about the board, I'm starting to get sick of them hiring terrible managers, how old are the board members now anyway, shouldn't they get replaced at some point?

Unfortunately, they're young. Danny Nurse's status is 'Loves the club', so he is unlikely to leave anytime soon icon_frown.gif

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Originally posted by AB-forever:

I guess the loanees didn't tear up the Danish league? icon_razz.gif

icon_biggrin.gif Not in the slightest, they were rubbish!

And it annoys me that some managers can't spot obviously bad players, like Aizpurua. Our new manager seems better to judge player ability though.

Yes, he's a little better, but nowhere near ideal.

And i don't think that Harry Harper will ever be very good.

No, he'll probably be quite good, a bit like Keith Ellis, but with the Bandits constantly strong up front, quite good probably won't be good enough.

How can Joe Galloway be the best centre back in the world by scout rating when his Marking is only 10? icon_confused.gif

Not sure, but other than that he doesn't appear to have weaknesses! You'd have to use him right.

And where's the Bandits squad report with the 20 best players and that? icon_razz.gif

Halfway up the page, posted earlier when I talked about the transfers. It's been in the first part of the season report for a while, and I posted it 29 April, 00:05 icon_smile.gif

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Originally posted by Nexus1614:

Hey kip, do you mind people running an experiment similar to this on FM08?

^_^

Feel free, although I should warn you its quite an undertaking.

One thing I've actually really appreciated here is that the regular readers haven't pestered for updates, realising that each one takes a long time, so thanks!

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Originally posted by kipfizh:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Nexus1614:

Hey kip, do you mind people running an experiment similar to this on FM08?

^_^

Feel free, although I should warn you its quite an undertaking.

One thing I've actually really appreciated here is that the regular readers haven't pestered for updates, realising that each one takes a long time, so thanks! </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

No problem, although it's often hard not to pester. Especially on those days when work is especially boring icon_wink.gif

I will however pester you about this as I think it would be a nice addition to the thread at this point. Fell free to let me know if you think otherwise:

Kip, I've just been having a read through the first post you made again as I've not read it since it was first written. While reading it occurred to me that now, since all the original players have finally retired, would be a perfect time to post answers to all the questions you asked in the second post.

Apologies if this has already been posted but I've read this thread from day one and can't remember it.

And I'm not being lazy by not trawling through the thread and posting answers to all the questions myself, I just thought it would be better coming from you.

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Originally posted by Wanson:

This experiment has been going on a long time now, great work btw kip. In all that time The Bandits haven't even come close to a league title.

There's got to be something wrong with the AI there. The Bandits have limitless transfer funds, massive fan support, a humongous stadium, excellent training and youth facilities and the reputation to entice nearly any superstar player to the club. How can a club like that not come even close to a title in over 30 years?

If a human player were to take control of the club they'd win the league within 2 seasons easy. If a human player had been playing from the start they'd have won the Premier League within 10 years from the start.

The AI has failed this experiment miserably IMO.

I actually disagree. While it seems that the AI has failed miserably, I actually think the AI has passed with flying colours. Why?

AI is not just about making the right choices. It is in some games, but not in FM. With the CA rating, and with each individual attribute, each character in the game has strengths and weaknesses. Whereas some games may wish to make the AI as good as possible, FM does not.

In the case of this game, good AI is not making everyone super intelligent, it is making their intelligence and decision making reflect their attributes.

And there, I think the game has shone. The Bandits have had a succession of fairly poor managers, and they have been outperformed by bigger talents. When the manager has poor attributes for buying players, he gets the wrong ones, and when those attributes are higher, we have a glorious couple of seasons. It isn't as if all the managers have gone about managing the Bandits in the same way - they have all acted as their attributes suggested they would.

You mention that a human manager would succeed far quicker. You're probably right, and if so, the following would be the case:

Say you are a decent FM player. You know what to look for in a player (not CA), for example those who have suggested that Harry Harper is not all he's cracked up to be, those players are the good ones. Can you spot the difference between Lupo and Maia, even though the worse one has the higher CA?

If so, you can claim a 'judging player ability' of 15+, possibly even 19-20 if you know exactly what you want for each position.

Next, can you spot a great Under 21 talent when you see one (whether that's you or your scouts). If so, you can claim a 'judging player potential' ability of 15+.

Then it comes down to tactics. Do you have a good tactic? If so, put your tactical knowledge to 10+, 15+ if you've really worked at it.

Now, how are you with the media? Have you learnt the right things to say, the right times to comment? Can you adapt what you are doing to the personalities of your players? Then stick your media related stats to 15+.

All in all, once you've played FM a lot, you'll actually be a superb manager compared to your rivals. This is the only reason your club advances.

The point is, the Bandits have never had a manager like this. They've occasionally had a manager with a great pairing of judging player ability and potential, and you know what? They've bought really well.

When the Bandits get a master buyer and tactician, then the AI can be said to have failed if they don't succeed. But while they have dunces in charge, the AI is surely absolutely spot on when they don't advance.

A human manager would walk the league with the Bandits within a few years. But why? They are poorer than Chelsea by a ratio of about 3:1, so all things being equal, they should always be behind Chelsea. Arsenal are also loaded, but have got relegated again. It isn't about those financial factors, it is about how they are utilised.

So here's where I defend the AI - I think it's right. The Bandits have managers who can't manage and can't strike a deal. Instead of the AI falsely making them succeed, it is accurately representing their many flaws and keeping the Bandits away from the league title.

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That's fine Kip, you've spelled out why the managers are failing, so what do they need?

Here's what I think the Bandits need in their managers, starting with the most important. Feel free to disagree:

1) Judging players potential

2) Judging players ability

3) Tactical knowledge

4) Man management

You'll notice that I put all the transfer market attributes at the top. That isn't true a lot of the time in FM, but the Bandits have the money, they have that glorious bottomless pit of cash, so it is less about turning a poor player into one who plays better than he should because of your tactics and therefore gets you a profit when you sell him, and more about just buying those superb talents in the first place.

After that, they need to gel them, but to me, a poor tactician who arranges a supreme squad will do better that the master tactician who has a bunch of muppets playing for him. Just my opinion.

(Incidentally, I'm not sure what the 'Buying Players' hidden attribute is all about. It seems to bear no connection to the two judging attributes - is it just how many players they buy??)

So who is good enough

Who, in the world, meets the following criteria?

Judging Potential: 15

Judging Ability: 15

Tactical: 10

Man Management: 10

With this criteria set, only eleven staff members in the world come out.

Three are scouts, and tellingly, they are at Sheff Wed, Sunderland and Liverpool. Sheff Wed and Liverpool came first and second in the Premiership this season.

Elsewhere, there is a Sheff Wed goalkeeping coach (any wonder they won the league, despite having Ben Clayton in charge?), some board staff, and a new management team at Chelsea.

Chelsea:

Radim Kucera has taken over as manager in the summer, with Adam Kruger as his assistant. Kucera has both judging stats at 19, tactical at 14, and man management at 20. Kruger has 18/17 for his judging, 14 for tactical, and 10 for man management.

So, if I'm right about what a good manager should have in the case of a rich club (which Chelsea clearly are!), then Chelsea will storm back towards the top having finished a dismal 13th last season.

Otherwise, I'll get my coat icon_smile.gif

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Originally posted by turn it upto 11:

whatever happened to ryan morley

He retired a long long time ago after an awesome career with Chelsea and England, the pinnacle being a triumphant Champions League final hattrick (before he was sent off later in the match, the plonker).

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Originally posted by martinw:

Personally I think the AI problem is in the boardroom. Having a board that hasn't changed throughout the game has prevented the club from reaching its potential.

It is possible for clubs to change the board, but not when the chairman 'loves the club' and would never leave. Maybe for future releases they need to have a retirement/death for the board members and a 'sack the board' protest from the fans.

The board has actually changed once in this game, but it was a long time ago, and the new board were so young that age wasn't likely to catch up on them.

I quite like the idea of fans turning on the board though...

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Originally posted by dryden76:

actually just remembered something. it isn't it more related to the level of detail the game is running in. because of this you can get the shock results and i guess it makes it more difficult for a team to build a winning streak as anyone can beat anyone. this is how scotland and belguim have become world champions and welling won the fa cup. i think a conclusion had been drawn that the bandits would probably have done better if higher detail was selected as their financial muscle may influence more than their reputation and lack of ambition....

Yes, I think you're right, although I'm still not convinced the Bandits would dominate. Chelsea are richer and might also benefit, while Arsenal and United may not have struggled quite so much.

We'll find out in FM09 icon_smile.gif

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Originally posted by Phil Macklam:

On what date do you note down the players CA?

eg The One To Watch, World Beaters and the Bandits squad, is it on the same date each year or does it vary?

Same date every year, or within a couple of days - you can actually tell from the screenshots.

I take them all at the end of the season, after the final match has been played, which is typically one of the playoff finals. It's usually around May 28-30.

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Originally posted by chopper99:

Kip, I've just been having a read through the first post you made again as I've not read it since it was first written. While reading it occurred to me that now, since all the original players have finally retired, would be a perfect time to post answers to all the questions you asked in the second post.

Apologies if this has already been posted but I've read this thread from day one and can't remember it.

And I'm not being lazy by not trawling through the thread and posting answers to all the questions myself, I just thought it would be better coming from you.

I think this is an excellent idea, but I think I might delay it one season. Why, you ask?

Well, next season is the 50th season of the experiment, as we end in the summer of 2056, 50 years after it all began. At that point, I'll be doing some reviews of the first half-century, and answering those very questions as part of it icon_smile.gif

Remind me if I forget icon_wink.gif

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Originally posted by kipfizh:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Mravac Kid:

... when did The Bandits button appear on the forum?

What Bandits button? </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

He means the advertisement linkage at the top of the page probably.

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Originally posted by kipfizh:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by chopper99:

Kip, I've just been having a read through the first post you made again as I've not read it since it was first written. While reading it occurred to me that now, since all the original players have finally retired, would be a perfect time to post answers to all the questions you asked in the second post.

Apologies if this has already been posted but I've read this thread from day one and can't remember it.

And I'm not being lazy by not trawling through the thread and posting answers to all the questions myself, I just thought it would be better coming from you.

I think this is an excellent idea, but I think I might delay it one season. Why, you ask?

Well, next season is the 50th season of the experiment, as we end in the summer of 2056, 50 years after it all began. At that point, I'll be doing some reviews of the first half-century, and answering those very questions as part of it icon_smile.gif

Remind me if I forget icon_wink.gif </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

An excellent idea icon14.gif

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Originally posted by kipfizh:

...

One thing I've actually really appreciated here is that the regular readers haven't pestered for updates, realising that each one takes a long time, so thanks!

I think that most people were trying to be encouraging or funny with their requests. At least I was.

Thanks again.

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Originally posted by rubybell_99:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by kipfizh:

...

One thing I've actually really appreciated here is that the regular readers haven't pestered for updates, realising that each one takes a long time, so thanks!

I think that most people were trying to be encouraging or funny with their requests. At least I was.

Thanks again. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Absolutely, and that's very welcome icon_smile.gif What's been great is that no-one turned doing this into a chore. All is good icon_smile.gif

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Originally posted by kipfizh:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by AB-forever:

And where's the Bandits squad report with the 20 best players and that? icon_razz.gif

Halfway up the page, posted earlier when I talked about the transfers. It's been in the first part of the season report for a while, and I posted it 29 April, 00:05 icon_smile.gif </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Really? icon_razz.gif

I wonder how I missed that icon_biggrin.gif

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Very good analysis of the AI Kipfizh and thanks for looking into the board too.

I have a question though, how does board member reputation affect the team? I would guess that before signing for a team a manager is more worried by the team he would manage, the players he has, his objectives and the team's financial position so I doubt the board's reputation would have a big effect on the manager we sign. For some reason I think that the board's CA would have a much greater influence on the manager's choice and with the 7th best Chairman in the EPL we shouldn't be in bad shape. icon_confused.gif

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Originally posted by Meitheisman:

... with the 7th best Chairman in the EPL we shouldn't be in bad shape. icon_confused.gif

This is why I initially asked Kip to post the scouted position ratings for players. CA is far less indicative of actual playing ability than the scouted ratings. I would guess (and I am guessing) that the same would apply to coaching and boardroom staff. So it may be that we have a Maia in the boardroom. Maybe that's an overstatement, but you get the idea.

Kip: Could we see a breakdown of scouted chairman ratings? I think that is a staff category in genie scout. There may be other ratings of interest as well.

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Originally posted by Wegason:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by 5ergio:

Kip, may I request the other Turkish player's profile over 180+ and where abouts are Turkish teams in Europen coefficients?

That has sparked an enquiry I'd like to make Kip.

Could you post a screenshot or breakdown of the European co-efficients by nation?

With only running the English leagues, it'd be interesting to see where England stands in the co-efficient leagues and how other nations have fared and whether there has been much movement in the leagues.

For example, if Spain or Italy dropped out the top three or a different nation other than England, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, or Spain occupied one of the top six places. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

The other Turkish player is Demir Ekinci, who has struggled at Stamford Bridge and isn't that great.

Demir Ekinci

And the coefficients are here:

European Coefficients

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Originally posted by JRHaggs:

Kip: Could we see a breakdown of scouted chairman ratings? I think that is a staff category in genie scout. There may be other ratings of interest as well.

You're right - although the chairman is 7th in CA, he's 15th on the scouted chairman rating.

The reason his CA is actually higher is because he's actually a decent physio, with a 16 rating. Shame that's not in the slightest bit useful.

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50 years next season, I don't want to bet that the half century will bring some silver ware. I am sensing another year of scraping a place in Europe and another manager change.

In the next experiment are you going to alter:

1) The stats of the chairmen and board so that they can atract better managers?

or

2) Alter the money so that the board gets replaced? From 08 I can say that this is not always a great idea, I ran into financial problems with Aston villa after signing to many top players in one season with big future pay out clauses, the replacement chairman was very short sighted and had very poor skills compared to the chairman he replaced. The team was the top one in Europe at that time, so you would of expected a top class chairman, not the donkey that we got. I'll check his ca and pa compared to the rest of the league when I get a chance (when I am not glued like a sad git to GTA4).

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Originally posted by The Lambs:

2) Alter the money so that the board gets replaced?

Kipfizh already confirmed there had already been a board takeover in the club's history... With that in mind, it's probably not really about money, as the club has always been far, far richer than average opposition at their level.

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Originally posted by Mravac Kid:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by The Lambs:

2) Alter the money so that the board gets replaced?

Kipfizh already confirmed there had already been a board takeover in the club's history... With that in mind, it's probably not really about money, as the club has always been far, far richer than average opposition at their level. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Must of missed that post by him, my bad.

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Season 2055-56

Bandits report - Transfers

Transfers In

Transfers Out

After a disappointing campaign last time out, the Bandits were going into the new season with another brand new manager, Robbie Way taking the helm for the club’s 50th season. It would be fitting if he could lead them to success in this landmark year.

Summer

There were a whole host of youth players that Way felt were not good enough for the club, so his first act was to get rid of a load of them, but his first real transfer activity brought back an old youth team player, Kyle Cox.

The 25 year old had already had two stints with the Bandits, the first after coming through the youth ranks, and the second having been signed back from Wycombe. Between those two spells he had managed just nine appearances. But QPR and then Aston Villa had taken him on, and he began to impress, breaking into the England side as a reward. Now, costing 9.75m plus unwanted full back Martinelli, the forward was back, his CA of 167 still ten away from his potential.

Following that, Way had a clearout. 25 year old Simon Cook just couldn’t get into the first team, and the right back was allowed to leave, Spurs paying 2.8m for him. Ancient winger Paul Thackeray followed him out, the declining left winger sent on a free to Bradford, who released him later in the season.

28 year old Spanish striker Daniel Fuente had been on loan at Arsenal, and scoring goals for fun, but with Messner and Rubio up front he didn’t stand a chance, and when Arsenal offered 8.25m for him at the end of his loan spell, the answer was obvious and he left. 31 year old right back Olivier Gomez followed him to Sevilla for 2.2m.

Then came the sale of the only remaining young player at the club, Harry Harper. Informed fans had been suggesting that he didn’t have the qualities to ever make it as a top striker, some even saying that if the Bandits got the right offer, they should let him go. Chelsea made that offer, paying 10.25m for the striker, before shipping him off to Celtic on loan, where he scored just four times in 24 appearances. Perhaps those fans were right, and the kid will never make it.

The clearout then continued in earnest, 27 year old centre back Paul Reid the next to go, moving to Sunderland for 5m. Then, both first choice full backs went, left back Jose Javier Veiga to Milan for 6.75m, and admittedly declining 33 year old right back Jonas Haaland to Leeds for 5.25m. Both shone at the new clubs.

And one more first teamer was to go, although this one didn’t worry too many. Jose Maria Aizpurua was actually quite rubbish, so when Athletic Bilbao took the Basque winger home for 5.25m, no-one really cared.

What all this did mean was that the squad was thin. Really thin. The sort of thin that makes an anorexic model look a bit porky. Signings were needed all over the place.

And not many came. 25 year old left winger John Baptiste arrived from Derby for 5m, but his 159 CA and 164 PA are unlikely to worry anyone. He was followed in by Bulgarian centre back Vladislav Kolev, Way paying Feyenoord 2.9m for the 30 year old. If Baptiste was bad, Kolev was even worse, his CA having already peaked at 153.

At the beginning of August, another centre back was signed, 24 year old Mexican Sergio Monroy earning Getafe 3.6m Monroy’s CA is also low, at 156, but could at least rise to 167. Still, not scary.

And to the amazement and fury of the fans, that was it. Cox could play, but he occupies a forward position that is already well covered, while the squad had been cleared out and not replaced in any way. Could some of the bit part players step up to the plate?

The most serious error Robbie Way made was selling all his left backs, and not signing anyone for that position. Only youth player Scott Hudson remained, but the 18 year old had a CA and PA of 78 and 96 respectively, and plainly wasn’t up to it. Nonetheless, with no left back at the club, he was forced to play 19 games before the January window opened.

The fans were livid, and rightly so. The Bandits appeared in trouble. How would they do?

January

After the crazy dealings in the summer, Robbie Way had some making up to do. He clearly realised he could not continue to clearout, and only allowed one player to leave in January, striker Michael de Lange, who despite being an excellent striker just couldn’t get into the team. Newcastle paid a hefty 14.25m for the 27 year old Dutchman.

Way then tried to fix the problems he had caused, signing a stopgap left back, 31 year old Austrian David Kastner from Udinese for 5.75m. It was a panic buy, with his CA of 146 only five below his potential and falling, he wasn’t the answer, but at least it gave the club a left back. At 5.75m though, the Bandits were well and truly ripped off.

Perhaps Way realised this, and quickly signed another full back, 20 year old Laurent Fernandez joining for 6m from Lens. Although more comfortable at right back, where the Bandits were also lacking, he could play on either side. With a PA of 174, he actually had some promise too, although he CA of 153 suggests he has some way to go yet.

Then came a shocker. Adam Williamson had made the Bandits a 10m profit when he moved to Liverpool for 10.75m seven years ago, to the delight of the fans who had seen him play abysmally whenever he got the chance. The 29 year had a PA of 189, which initially looked fantastic, but it soon became clear he wasn’t anything like at that level, and with a CA flattering even at 174 the last thing that fans wanted to see was his return. But after failing at Liverpool and Sheff Wed, where he averaged below six (!) for six consecutive seasons, Man City improved him a little (still averaging way below seven), and Way inexplicably decided he was suddenly worth 15.25m, and paid that fortune to a gleeful City board. The fury of the fans was now complete.

And then another ex-Bandits returned, the third this season. Left back Michael Boateng had only left to join Leeds in January last year, but the 25 year old was now needed with no one good to fill that position, and Way paid 4.7m for him, 2m more than they sold him for a year ago. His CA of 159 was ten short of his potential, but still made him the best left back at the club, almost by default.

There would be one more signing, striker Hedi Bossu brought in to replace the likes of Fuente, Harper and de Lange, the three forwards allowed to leave this season. The 26 year old Frenchman cost 7.75m from Nurnberg, but it is difficult to see why, with a CA of 158 and a PA of 165.

And as the fans watched on is disbelief, increasingly frustrated at the mediocrity being brought in, Way closed the chequebook. Incredibly, he’d spent 61m on the dross, with only Cox and Fernandez excusable.

There was a saving grace, and that was that none of the stars had been sold. Half the team was still incredibly talented, to the level where a league challenge would be possible. And as we requested, Way has replaced the other half. The only trouble is, he’s replaced them with even worse players.

Going forward, they still have Rubio and Messner up front, backed by Birchall in midfield. They have to score the goals. At the back, Christie must marshal the weak defence, with either Johnstone or McParland pulling off great performances behind him.

Those five players, plus right back Matthews, have to carry the rest of the team. If those six stay injury free and in form, the Bandits will still be a strong team. If they can’t carry their inept teammates, or pick up knocks, the club will be in enormous trouble.

But the biggest crime Way has committed was at left back. Forcing a poor youth player to step up to the first team for half the season is unforgivable.

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Bandits report - squad

Top 20 in Squad (sorted by CA)

Name, Pos, Age, CA-PA

Rubio, ST, 27, 184-184 (-)

Birchall, MC, 28, 178-188 (+1)

Christie, DC, 27, 175-179 (-)

Messner, ST, 27, 175-175 (-)

Williamson, MC, 29, 174-189 – new signing

Matthews, DR, 26, 172-185 (+1)

McParland, GK, 26, 170-173 (-)

Dompig, D/M C, 30, 170-170 (-)

Halonen, GK, 25, 168-171 (+1)

Cox, AM RC, 25, 167-177 – new signing

Johnstone, GK, 36, 167-173 (-2)

Parker, DC/DM, 32, 159-176 (-7)

Mitrev, WB/AM R, 24, 159-171 – new entry in top 20

Boateng, D/WB L, 25, 159-169 – new signing

Baptiste, AM L, 25, 159-164 – new signing

Bossu, ST, 26, 158-165 – new signing

Monroy, DC, 24, 156-167 – new signing

Russell, WB/AM R, 30, 154-184 (-5)

Fernandez, D RL, 20, 153-174 – new signing

Kolev, DC, 30, 153-153 – new signing

Players in last season’s top 20 who have left the club:

Harper, AM/F C, 20, 166-181

de Lange, ST, 26, 166-172

Cook, D/WB R, 24, 166-170

Gomez, DR, 30, 164-180

Veiga, D/WB L, 26, 164-178

Haaland, D/WB RL, 32, 163-188

Fuente, ST, 27, 163-163

Reid, SC, 26, 160-165

Players in last season’s top 20 who have dropped out of the top 20:

Lopez, AM L, 30, 152-179 (-8)

Robbie Way left the top of the list alone, leaving the half of the team that are stars exactly where they were. At first glance, he also added Williamson to the list of stars, but he is actually quite hopeless, as his past history shows.

It is below the top ten that the problem really begins. After Johnstone with 167 CA, there is a big drop, and there are loads of players in the 150 range who now make the top 20, a bad sign given that eight 160+ players were sold.

Notable others:

None

CA of X or above:

190 : 0 … 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0

180 : 0 … 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1

170 : 0 … 4, 4, 4, 6, 9, 5, 6, 7, 8

160 : 0 … 9, 12, 9, 15, 17, 19, 18, 19, 11

150 : 0 … 20, 19, 19, 21, 23, 25, 27, 26, 21

140 : 0 … 25, 25, 27, 27, 29, 33, 29, 26, 22

130 : 0 … 30, 28, 30, 30, 32, 35, 30, 26, 24

120 : 0 … 30, 29, 34, 30, 35, 36, 31, 27, 25

110 : 0 … 31, 31, 35, 33, 37, 39, 31, 27, 25

100 : 2 … 38, 34, 33, 39, 36, 38, 41, 29, 27

Rubio remains above the 180 mark, while Williamson’s arrival sees the 170+ range rise. But the real problem is at 160+, where the count drops from 19 to 11. To put that into perspective, last season there were 12 players between 160-169, now there are only three.

The squad is small. Very small. Let’s hope those stars stay fit, eh?

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Oh my god. Things just go from bad to worse it seems.

Taken me a while to catch up, as usual had some hope for the coming season, read the report, got depressed, same again with the next season, read your report, guess it could have been worse, then read your latest summer transfer report and hangs head in shame.

Damn this is worse than being a Norwich City fan lol. But hey, who knows, he could turn out to be a genius tactically, though, I'm really not going to hold my breath.

Great updates as usual Kip, look forward to the next one as always icon_smile.gif

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Oh dear, what a waste of £61m!! I'm struggling to comprehend how he could spend that much cash and still not get one player worth getting even remotely excited about.

I have a bad feeling about this season, especially with a youth player spending half of it at left back. The way the manager's been panic buying in the January transfer window hints to me that they weren't doing well and desperately needed to sign some players. I'm already looking forward to seeing the back of this particular manager.

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[Gulp!]

OK. So, unfortunately, we know that Way survived through at least half of the season. This is already a tragedy. Even if he is replaced, gods willing, before he can dig any deeper into this giant hole he's already dug, how long will it take even a reasonably competent manager to undo all of his shenanigans? (Yes, I'm calling shenanigans!)

Still, the board are the real culprits here. It seems that only by chance have our Bandits not previously found themselves tumbling due to lousy management. This guy isn't really all that different than those who have gone before him. It was just a matter of time before the board's abysmal managerial signings caught up.

Running only one league in detail must really have profound effects on the database. It seems that the current managerial stock is riddled with the digital equivalents of inbred hemophiliacs and slack-jawed yokels. A little variety in the gene pool would do them some good.

Kip: yet another screenshot request. May we see the world rankings, please? I'm going out on a limb here to predict that it will be a disaster. I doubt there will be many non-European countries in the top 20. I'm basing this prediction on the database behavior we've been watching for the last 50 seasons.

I'm beginning to get a little antsy for FM '09. Although I'm still rooting for the Bandits (c'mon the Bandits!), but I'm beginning to feel a bit jaded and in need of a rest (ha!) regarding this FM '07 database erosion. I feel like we've been witnessing what started as a reasonably predictable and dynamic system succumb to entropic forces, season by season. Each season now seems noticeably more frustrating than the last, and there is nothing to suggest that trend's abatement.

Of course, I'll keep checking daily (OK, multiple times daily) for updates, but I no longer have any confidence that the Bandits will ever win another trophy.

OK. Sorry, folks, I'm done. I must need to take some Prosac or something. Maybe it's just a gray Monday dragging me down.

Everybody now:

Sack the board, sack the board, sack the board...

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Originally posted by VonBlade:

Damn the board.

Sack the manager!

Sack the manager!!

Sack the manager!!!

Quoted for truth. In fact, I'd be extremely happy to see both the manager & the board leaving. I wish we had that happen after this season but yet again, these are nice daydreams...

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If this is going like it sounds like it's going, I predict Welling to finish above the Bandits in the next couple of seasons.

In many ways, Welling are the anti-bandits. Without the cash or the stadium, their FA Cup win will have given them an enormous reputation boost (relative to their rivals), which they wll only have built on with their repeated success. Coupled with a couple of decent managerial appointments, they could continue to have (as they have had) awesome sucess.

Board out!

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Great post JRHaggs, you pretty much summed up my thoughts... in a much better English than mine too icon_biggrin.gif

Of course it doesn't take anything away from your greatness Kipfizh icon_wink.gif

I can't wait for another mid-table finish, crappy cup runs and another manager change icon_rolleyes.gif

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Originally posted by Scott1990:

For some unexplainable reason, I see them finishing in the top 4. It's almost as if Kip has tricked us into assuming the Bandits will fail due to the seemingly horrible signings.

Just a thought.

Indeed, there's still a lot of talent on that side that if they stay relatively injury free should see them there or thereabouts.
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