SiN8

Detailed experiment of youth development - Troubling results

208 posts in this topic

Objective:

I want to provide an detailed analysis of the player development model in FM08. Since SI modified the training system for FM08, this study will hopefully determine whether a long-term game is sustainable. This will also investigate as to why many talented youth are not picked by the national team.

Motivation:

I like to play out a career in FM over a span of 20+ seasons. In order to enjoy such a long-term game, it is crucial that the youth development and the regen system maintain a consistent level of players. There have been multiple threads complaining that the training system is broken. There are also sporadic threads complaining that regens have unrealistically low physical stats.

Furthermore, I've also noticed in my game that national teams are not picking talented youth, but rather sticking with the veterans well past their peak. This might have to do something with the development model.

Simulation:

I started off a holiday game with the 8.0.1 patch. I am using a large database and have the following leagues playable:

Argentina - Primera División

Australia - A-League

Brazil - Campeonato Brasileiro

China - Super League

England - Premiership and Championship

France - Ligue 1

Germany - Bundesliga

Holland - Premier Division

Italy - Serie A and Serie B

Mexico - Primera División

Portugal - Bwin Liga

Russia - Premier League

Scotland - Premier League

South Africa - Castle Premiership

South Korea - K-League

Spain - La Liga and Seconda A

USA - MLS

This covers basically 5 continents with 17 countries and 20 leagues. I am saving every 2 years in August. The numbers used for analysis are obtained using Genie Scout.

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Objective:

I want to provide an detailed analysis of the player development model in FM08. Since SI modified the training system for FM08, this study will hopefully determine whether a long-term game is sustainable. This will also investigate as to why many talented youth are not picked by the national team.

Motivation:

I like to play out a career in FM over a span of 20+ seasons. In order to enjoy such a long-term game, it is crucial that the youth development and the regen system maintain a consistent level of players. There have been multiple threads complaining that the training system is broken. There are also sporadic threads complaining that regens have unrealistically low physical stats.

Furthermore, I've also noticed in my game that national teams are not picking talented youth, but rather sticking with the veterans well past their peak. This might have to do something with the development model.

Simulation:

I started off a holiday game with the 8.0.1 patch. I am using a large database and have the following leagues playable:

Argentina - Primera División

Australia - A-League

Brazil - Campeonato Brasileiro

China - Super League

England - Premiership and Championship

France - Ligue 1

Germany - Bundesliga

Holland - Premier Division

Italy - Serie A and Serie B

Mexico - Primera División

Portugal - Bwin Liga

Russia - Premier League

Scotland - Premier League

South Africa - Castle Premiership

South Korea - K-League

Spain - La Liga and Seconda A

USA - MLS

This covers basically 5 continents with 17 countries and 20 leagues. I am saving every 2 years in August. The numbers used for analysis are obtained using Genie Scout.

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Savegame 1: July 7, 2007

Total number of players: 52331

Players under 21:

190 - 200 PA: 2

180 - 189 PA: 21

170 - 179 PA: 111

160 - 169 PA: 160

190 - 200 CA: 0

180 - 189 CA: 2

170 - 179 CA: 0

160 - 169 CA: 2

150 - 159 CA: 12

140 - 149 CA: 34

130 - 139 CA: 71

120 - 129 CA: 183

Pace and acceleration >= 15: 1666

All-around athletes* : 113

*Defined as pace & acceleration >=15, agility & balance & jumping & natural fitness & stamina &

strength >=10

Players between 21 and 24:

190 - 200 PA: 6

180 - 189 PA: 39

170 - 179 PA: 92

160 - 169 PA: 227

190 - 200 CA: 0

180 - 189 CA: 2

170 - 179 CA: 15

160 - 169 CA: 24

150 - 159 CA: 60

140 - 149 CA: 173

130 - 139 CA: 353

120 - 129 CA: 746

Pace and acceleration >= 15: 2016

All-around athletes* : 366

*Defined as pace & acceleration >=15, agility & balance & jumping & natural fitness & stamina &

strength >=10

All players

190 - 200 CA: 1

180 - 189 CA: 18

170 - 179 CA: 68

International Caps

Players under 25 with international caps: 1273

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 2

Oldest player >= 165 CA with no caps: Sebastien Frey[27] - 173 CA

England

Players under 25 with international caps: 13

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0

Spain

Players under 25 with international caps: 9

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 1 Jesus Navas[21] - 166 CA

Italy

Players under 25 with international caps: 5

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0

France

Players under 25 with international caps: 9

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0

Germany

Players under 25 with international caps: 16

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0

Holland

Players under 25 with international caps: 20

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0

Brazil

Players under 25 with international caps: 21

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0

Argentina

Players under 25 with international caps: 18

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0

Analysis

This sets the baseline at the beginning of the game. With the exception of Messi and Fabregas, talented players under 21 reach around 150 CA. There's also a good amount of players under 25 that have international caps. In fact, only 2 players under 25 >= 165 CA has not been capped yet. The only player >= 170 CA without a cap is Frey.

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Savegame 2: August 4, 2009

Total number of players: 53322

Players under 21:

190 - 200 PA: 6

180 - 189 PA: 22

170 - 179 PA: 94

160 - 169 PA: 112

190 - 200 CA: 0

180 - 189 CA: 0

170 - 179 CA: 0

160 - 169 CA: 6

150 - 159 CA: 13

140 - 149 CA: 23

130 - 139 CA: 70

120 - 129 CA: 110

Pace and acceleration >= 15: 1357

All-around athletes* : 117

*Defined as pace & acceleration >=15, agility & balance & jumping & natural fitness & stamina &

strength >=10

Players between 21 and 24:

190 - 200 PA: 5

180 - 189 PA: 29

170 - 179 PA: 110

160 - 169 PA: 189

190 - 200 CA: 3

180 - 189 CA: 3

170 - 179 CA: 25

160 - 169 CA: 65

150 - 159 CA: 156

140 - 149 CA: 280

130 - 139 CA: 540

120 - 129 CA: 821

Pace and acceleration >= 15: 1300

All-around athletes* : 331

*Defined as pace & acceleration >=15, agility & balance & jumping & natural fitness & stamina & strength >=10

All players

190 - 200 CA: 5

180 - 189 CA: 23

170 - 179 CA: 95

International Caps

Players under 25 with international caps: 1280

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 13

Oldest player >= 165 CA with no caps: Amauri[29] - 175 CA

England

Players under 25 with international caps: 7

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 1

Leighton Baines[24] - 166 CA

Spain

Players under 25 with international caps: 5

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 7

Jesus Navas[23] - 172 CA

Italy

Players under 25 with international caps: 9

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 1

Lucas[22] - 174 CA

France

Players under 25 with international caps: 7

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 2

Jeremy Menez[22] - 168 CA

Germany

Players under 25 with international caps: 8

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0

Holland

Players under 25 with international caps: 10

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0

Brazil

Players under 25 with international caps: 13

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 1

Lucas[22] - 174 CA

Argentina

Players under 25 with international caps: 13

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 1

Gonzalo Higuain[21] - 168 CA

Analysis

Even just after two years, we're seeing signs that the youth development is not up to standard. While the regens have higher PA, the total number of under-21s that have >= 120 CA dropped by 79.

For players 21 to 24, the average CA is going up. There's also an drop in the number of players with good physical attributes in both age groups. In the 21 to 24 group, there's a drop off of 716 players with good pace and acceleration.

As for international caps, we can seeing less players under 25 getting caps. We are also seeing players who have good CA, but are not being called up. Victor Valdes, Amauri, Jesus Navas and Lucas are all examples >= 170 CA and no caps.

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I wouldn't mind if average player levels would go down a bit. I love this game, but something that bothers me after few seasons is, that it seems like that even worst teams in premiership are filled with players with who got great attributes.

If you compare premiership players since the moment you start, and then let's say 3 years it seems premier league standard goes up way too much...suddenly mid-table team having as good team as top table team at start. This due development and transfers. I feel the cap between best EPL team and worst EPL team narrows down too much and there could be more difference between their key player statistics.

That is why I'm glad standard of average players go down, because I don't want to face team every game where their player is 18+ on every attribute ( overstatement, but you know what I mean icon_wink.gif )

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You see, I want great individuals stand out, but they dont if nearly every player on pitch is up his standard. I want more variety, and more weaknesses even on world's best players emphatzing their strenghts and weaknesses alike. icon_smile.gif

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I'm going to try a new format by putting past results side by side. So in this post, you'll see 3 numbers. The first is savegame 1, second is savegame 2 and the rightmost is the current savegame 3.

Hopefully, this will allow easier comparison.

Savegame 3: August 1, 2011

Total number of players: 52331, 53322, 53260

Players under 21:

190 - 200 PA: 2, 6, 7

180 - 189 PA: 21, 22, 39

170 - 179 PA: 111, 94, 99

160 - 169 PA: 160, 112, 92

190 - 200 CA: 0, 0, 0

180 - 189 CA: 2, 0, 0

170 - 179 CA: 0, 0, 1

160 - 169 CA: 2, 6, 0

150 - 159 CA: 12, 13, 4

140 - 149 CA: 34, 23, 7

130 - 139 CA: 71, 70, 24

120 - 129 CA: 183, 110, 59

Pace and acceleration >= 15: 1666, 1357, 1033

All-around athletes* : 113, 117, 38

*Defined as pace & acceleration >=15, agility & balance & jumping & natural fitness & stamina &

strength >=10

Players between 21 and 24:

190 - 200 PA: 6, 5, 3

180 - 189 PA: 39, 29, 21

170 - 179 PA: 92, 110, 99

160 - 169 PA: 227, 189, 139

190 - 200 CA: 0, 3, 2

180 - 189 CA: 2, 3, 3

170 - 179 CA: 15, 25, 24

160 - 169 CA: 24, 65, 57

150 - 159 CA: 60, 156, 133

140 - 149 CA: 173, 280, 290

130 - 139 CA: 353, 540, 475

120 - 129 CA: 746, 821, 818

Pace and acceleration >= 15: 2016, 1300, 811

All-around athletes* : 366, 331, 211

*Defined as pace & acceleration >=15, agility & balance & jumping & natural fitness & stamina & strength >=10

All players

190 - 200 CA: 1, 5, 4

180 - 189 CA: 18, 23, 28

170 - 179 CA: 68, 95, 105

International Caps

Players under 25 with international caps: 1273, 1280, 1168

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 2, 13, 21

Oldest player >= 170 CA with no caps: Amauri[31] - 175 CA

England

Players under 25 with international caps: 13, 7, 4

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0, 1, 5

Fabrice Muamba[23] - 166 CA

Spain

Players under 25 with international caps: 9, 5, 4

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0, 7, 5

Bojan[20] - 177 CA

Italy

Players under 25 with international caps: 5, 9, 10

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0, 1, 1

Lucas[24] - 177 CA

France

Players under 25 with international caps: 9, 7, 6

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0, 2, 6

Jeremy Menez[24] - 176 CA

Germany

Players under 25 with international caps: 16, 8, 1

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0, 0, 2

Kevin-Prince Boateng[24] - 169 CA

Holland

Players under 25 with international caps: 20, 10, 7

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0, 0, 1

Ismael Aissati[22] - 167 CA

Brazil

Players under 25 with international caps: 21, 13, 9

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0, 1, 4

Alexander Pato[21] - 181 CA

Argentina

Players under 25 with international caps: 18, 13, 8

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0, 1, 1

Gonzalo Higuain[23] - 174 CA

Analysis

With the new format, we can see the degrade in youth development much more clearly. Youth are been regenerated with good PA, but the CA is just too low. There's only 95 under-21 with >= 120 CA.

Compare that to 302 in the first savegame. Physical attributes are also decreasing at an alarming rate. Perhaps development is lagging behind in the physical department.

International caps for talented youth are also dropping except for Italy. As a result, we are

seeing players who have high CA but no caps. Amauri still has not been capped despite having over 175 CA for two years now. Meanwhile, Pato at 181 CA has not been capped. But he's still young and hopefully will be on the national team soon.

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The results for the first 4 years are interesting. Youth definitely do not develop as fast as FM07. We should keep an eye on the CA for "all players". While as FM07 players stop developing at 24, I have a feeling that FM08 players continue to develop even at older ages.

I'll continue this tomorrow. It takes a couple of hours to process a season. If there's anything else you guys want me to track, feel free to ask.

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this is i think a good thing, ask ferguson.. youth development should be done carefully, or it just won't work out right.

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SI just mess the youth development up...

it don't have any problem in previous version

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I'm glad the youth develop more slowly, it's more realistic. But if these trends continue so dramatically there might be problems in long term games.

There is one problem though. My 20/20 scouts continue to tell me that players under 21 have reached their full potential. This is possiby the result of just asking for a report, but when he assesses a 17 year old surely he should predict a large degree of improvement, even if he is indeed playing near his potential in reality.

Nice experiment Sin8 I look forward to some more results

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I can give two conclusions so far.

Either youth development in FM 2008 is spot on but the researchers are so BIASED that they inflate all their research targets especially the stars to far beyond their real / realistic ability ( This seems true whenever i look at Zlatan Ibrahimovic ) making the gap between the 'real' and 'what you get' more obvious as seen by this experiment.

OR researchers are saints and managed a perfect snapshot of the players they governed, in which case we have a serious game issue with youth development as seen by this experiment.

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My findings show that regen CA is generated too low. They peak too late and it is very hard to get them to improve by more than 15 CA/year in the 15-20 age group. I can forsee a situation of no wonderkids once we have a regen-only age group of < 21.

Forget your Messi's, Fabregas', Aguero's etc.

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There has been a problem with youth development in FM ever since they got rid of the 'regen' idea. Problems from the past include

- Newgens having poor teamwork attributes

- Newgens with poor physical attributes, much like the problem investigated here

- Poor attribute alignment, with defenders having 20 for finishing and flair, but 8 for marking and positioning.

- The only PPMs a newgen ever had were "shoots from distance" even if their long shots attribute was only 5. This may not be fixed yet

- A lack of potentially world class players.

Some of these issues may have been fixed, such as the teamwork bug, but I think the others still exist in the development engine. Interestingly, the last point seems to have been fixed in a way, but in fixing it other problems have become apparent i.e. players not reaching their potential, not enough players in the mid range etc. etc.

The whole issue of development really needs to be sorted. These experiments have cropped up for every version of FM, each revealing shortcomings in the development engine - and yet nothings been done. Hopefully SI can sort it once and for all, and hopefully for the next patch!

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A very interesting topic, SiN8. I am looking forward to you continuing it, and after that I will be looking in a way to resume your results, and posting them on another forum. If that is ok with you, of course icon_wink.gif

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">- The only PPMs a newgen ever had were "shoots from distance" even if their long shots attribute was only 5. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

there are plenty of players that shoot from distance even if all their long shots end up high and wide. Just because someone isn't very good at something doesn't mean they don't do it.

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Pace and acceleration >= 15: 1666, 1357, 1033 </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

considering the match engine is heavily biased towards pace/accel, I'm not surprised with this decline.

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Good experiement. icon14.gif

I've not really got too far in the future yet on this FM, but on FM2007 I felt young players developed too quickly, and it was too easy to get a player to reach their PA. It needed slowing down, but this experiment so far appears to be showing that its been slowed down too much.

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by GoGa70:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">- The only PPMs a newgen ever had were "shoots from distance" even if their long shots attribute was only 5. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

there are plenty of players that shoot from distance even if all their long shots end up high and wide. Just because someone isn't very good at something doesn't mean they don't do it. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

That's not the point though is it? The fact that the only PPM newgens ever had was 'Shoots from distance' is the flaw.

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I am currently in 2017. While I ahve noticed a good number of quality young players (not nearly as bad as some of the early alarmists suggest), there are two issues I've noticed.

One agrees very strongly with what you've been saying: There are very few great athletes amongst the great players. There are way too many players with fantastic mental and technical skills but pace and jumping scores hovering around 10. The other is the PPM issue. Since it is so hard to transfer PPMs through tutoring, more players need to be generated with more PPMs, and that is just not happening. This was an issue with FM 07 as well.

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Let me add one of the most troubling trends is top-flight DCs with poor jumping and pace attributes.

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Again, the rightmost number is for savegame 4. I've also added a new section that tracks players who never achieve their potential. Pretty interesting finding.

Savegame 4: August 1, 2013

Total number of players: 52331...53322...53260...55119

Players under 21:

190 - 200 PA: 2.....6.....7.....10

180 - 189 PA: 21....22....39....41

170 - 179 PA: 111...94....99....110

160 - 169 PA: 160...112...92....94

190 - 200 CA: 0.....0.....0.....0

180 - 189 CA: 2.....0.....0.....0

170 - 179 CA: 0.....0.....1.....0

160 - 169 CA: 2.....6.....0.....0

150 - 159 CA: 12....13....4.....0

140 - 149 CA: 34....23....7.....2

130 - 139 CA: 71....70....24....18

120 - 129 CA: 183...110...59....77

Pace and acceleration >= 15: 1666.....1357.....1033.....947

All-around athletes* : 113.....117.....38.....34

*Defined as pace & acceleration >=15, agility & balance & jumping & natural fitness & stamina & strength >=10

Players between 21 and 24:

190 - 200 PA: 6.....5.....3.....5

180 - 189 PA: 39....29....21....19

170 - 179 PA: 92....110...99....79

160 - 169 PA: 227...189...139...93

190 - 200 CA: 0.....3.....2.....0

180 - 189 CA: 2.....3.....3.....1

170 - 179 CA: 15....25....24....9

160 - 169 CA: 24....65....57....17

150 - 159 CA: 60....156...133...95

140 - 149 CA: 173...280...290...182

130 - 139 CA: 353...540...475...356

120 - 129 CA: 746...821...818...539

Pace and acceleration >= 15: 2016.....1300.....811.....564

All-around athletes* : 366.....331.....211.....139

*Defined as pace & acceleration >=15, agility & balance & jumping & natural fitness & stamina & strength >=10

All players

190 - 200 CA: 1.....5.....4.....6

180 - 189 CA: 18....23....28....16

170 - 179 CA: 68....95....105...97

Wasted Potential

This section will track those players who never reach their potential. We're seeing regens with good PA, but they never seem to develop. This hopefully will shed some light.

Players who underachieved* >= 50: 302.....222.....104.....104

*Defined as players between 27 and 30 whose PA >= 150, but their PA - CA >= 20. These players are in their peak years, but have not come close to reaching their potential.

International Caps

Players under 25 with international caps: 1273..1280..1168..905

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 2.....13....21....11

Oldest player >= 170 CA with no caps: Gianluca Pegolo[32] - 170 CA

England

Players under 25 with international caps: 13....7.....4.....3

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....1.....5.....1

Scott Sinclair[23] - 174 CA

Spain

Players under 25 with international caps: 9.....5.....4.....2

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....7.....5.....3

Bojan[22] - 179 CA

Italy

Players under 25 with international caps: 5.....9.....10....1

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....1.....1.....2

Alexandre Pato[23] - 184 CA

France

Players under 25 with international caps: 9.....7.....6.....3

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....2.....6.....1

Obertan Gabriel[24] - 167 CA

Germany

Players under 25 with international caps: 16....8.....1.....0

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....0.....2.....1

Toni Kroos[23] - 172 CA

Holland

Players under 25 with international caps: 20....10....7.....2

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....0.....1.....1

Ismael Aissati[24] - 170 CA

Brazil

Players under 25 with international caps: 21....13....9.....4

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....1.....4.....3

Alexander Pato[23] - 184 CA

Argentina

Players under 25 with international caps: 18....13....8.....3

Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....1.....1.....0

Analysis

Since we are six years into the game, almost all under-21s are now regens. If we compare the

current results to savegame 1, we see that regens have PA, but drastically low CA. There's only 20 players over 130 CA.

The same thing is seen for players 21 to 24. Their average CA is now much lower than the first savegame. There's another strange occurance for this group. Notice how the number of high PAs have decreased. This is odd considering that the high number of high PA youth in the first savegame.

Does this mean that the first batch of youth are retiring before reaching 24?

The slow development of youth have taken its toll on international caps. There are only a handful of under-25 players in national powerhouse teams.

As for the new wasted potential test, we are a decrease in underachievers. The results really surprised me as I thought players were not developing. But this would indicate otherwise. In fact, the high CA for all players stayed consistent. We'll have to keep our eye on this.

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Players who underachieved* >= 50: 302.....222.....104.....104 </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Please disregard the ">=50"

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Why does it seem more and more like SI's community members are playtesting the games for them?

Lets face it, this new game feels like it wasn't playtested at all at times.

interesting experiment though

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">hat's not the point though is it? The fact that the only PPM newgens ever had was 'Shoots from distance' is the flaw. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

i was obviously referring to his second statement

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Good post.

I obviously haven't done any proper research like you have but anecdotally I am seeing very similar results on my game, which is now in 2015.

There are basically only a handful of newgens in any of the national teams at the moment. I decided to give miniscout a go and check out the PA/CA and it is shocking. I actually managed to sign a striker with PA of 198 (without cheating i might add) but after years and years of me doing everything I can I have so far only managed to get his PA to 140. I found I have the same situation with some other team members I have signed.

The AI isn't really doing much better either. I haven't seen a wonderkid since near the start of the game either.

I'm glad to see there are players with good PA coming through on yours though because they seem to be lacking on mine. In terms of the England U21 squad the highest PA I can find on any of the players is about 150.

Another point like you mention is players I have had for years with good CA are not being picked by the national squads either ? I find this baffling as they are not even being called up despite being better.

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Actually the England national team have 2 newgens in the squad, both have a CA of 147.

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To stand any chance with someone at 198PA they have to have:

* 100-120 CA at 17

* 15+ /year CA growth rate until 22.

If not, he'll be miles off his PA and you're better off buying a guy with a lower PA but with better starting CA.

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This is a clever experiment and it verifies what I suspected byt looking at new players. Their physical attributes are very bad. At first I was thinking that they will get better when they grow older. But then genie came out and I was surprised to see that the very good new players would be excellent with their technique but stay slow, weak and sissy. Thank god for the editors, or else in 10 years I'd have a team as athletic as the guys that watch them from home.

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Qceng:

To stand any chance with someone at 198PA they have to have:

* 100-120 CA at 17

* 15+ /year CA growth rate until 22.

If not, he'll be miles off his PA and you're better off buying a guy with a lower PA but with better starting CA. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

He is 21 now. 11 goals and 9 assists in 19 apps this season (his first full season in prem) so i'm not giving up yet !

I only signed him because his description was the next Henry :p

I've checked some of the other national teams from active leagues in my game and they pretty much all only have 2-4 newgens in the squad.

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Qceng:

To stand any chance with someone at 198PA they have to have:

* 100-120 CA at 17

* 15+ /year CA growth rate until 22.

If not, he'll be miles off his PA and you're better off buying a guy with a lower PA but with better starting CA. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

This is with an assumption that players stop developing at 22. While the experiment has only reached 6 years, we are seeing that the number of underachievers (see savegame4) has actually decreased. Perhaps players continue developing well into their high 20s.

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Cause they are too busy wading in cash filled swimming pools.

Someone pass me the 'Luxurious Soap'

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Joshlee:

Why didn't any SI staff say anything about it? icon_confused.gif </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

They are too busy counting their <STRIKE>money</STRIKE> christmas presents.

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Joshlee:

Why didn't any SI staff say anything about it? icon_confused.gif </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

lol look, he doesn't realize yet that they don't care...hehehehe!

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Fire Bracelet:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Joshlee:

Why didn't any SI staff say anything about it? icon_confused.gif </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

lol look, he doesn't realize yet that they don't care...hehehehe! </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Yes, I'm sure they purposely added this feature so that the game will be unplayable after a few years and will create unhappy customers.

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by roofel:

Why does it seem more and more like SI's community members are playtesting the games for them?

Lets face it, this new game feels like it wasn't playtested at all at times.

interesting experiment though </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

You say that as if you know that testers don't perform similar procedures...

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Sin8: Cool experiment. Would you be able to do the same exact thing with 07 and compare the results? That would indicate if there really is something different between 07 and 08 that is responsible, and how great the difference is.

And if other people have scout genie and 08 they can run the same experiment and see if they get similar results.

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Sin8: Also, is it possible that you need to have 'deeper' leagues in order to get proper youth development?

I noticed that most of your leagues had the top tier only. Maybe this creates a problem if the 'top' teams will act similarly to the int'l teams, in that they'll stick primarily with experienced players and let youth players sit around on the bench. If this happens, solid youth players may not have an outlet to get regular first team experience, the way they might if you could sell on or loan out younger players to lower division teams. (For instance, in my 07 game, I send as many under-21 players as possible out to teams that will treat them as valuable first team additions. This nearly always sends them to a lower div. team.) An AI team with only limited options for loaning players out may keep younger players sitting around doing nothing, unless it treats youth development as an important goal, in and of itself. But that seems doubtful, given the results you've seen.

Anyway, I'm wondering if the way you set up the experiment may account for why youth players aren't developing as well as you'd hope. So you might want to see what happens if you run the experiment with more lower tier divisions, even if this means you have to reduce the number of countries. See if you still get the same kind of results.

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NEW SECTION - Tracking players - Savegame 1

Since development is obviously modified/broken, I'm going to keep track of three players. Each

player is in their own unique situtaion and might lead to the root cause of this problem.

Lulinha is a 17 yr old Brazilian AMC with 104/187. His high PA indicates he could be in the first XI in any side. Currently playing for Corinthians in 2007, he is quite well known for a 17 year old with a reputation of 5064. Will Lulinha should be picked up by a European team soon and blossom in the top flight leagues?

Dean Vaughn is an American center back who starts the game as a 16yr old with 66/189. With proper guidance, he should be a world-class player. However, since he is playing for BYU Cougars in USA, his reputation is very low at 50. Will he be discovered by top European teams and nurtured into a top player? Or will he waste away his career as well as his potential in the MLS?

Thiago starts off as a 17 yr old MC at Barcelona with 90/173. His PA should see him be a good player, but not necessarily world class. Since Thiago has a high reputation already at 3750, top teams are keeping an eye on him. And Thiago is probably keeping an eye on them also with his ambition of 18. However, he probably will not be starting for the top sides. Will Thiago's development languish as he sits on the bench? Also, will the Spanish registration bug also hinder Thiago?

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Tracking players - Savegame 2

Lulinha - 19 yr - AMC - Suwon

2007 - 104/187

2009 - 133/187

Lulinha had a torrid 2 years with Corinthians. Even though he played in 45 league games over the last 2 seasons, his ratings were below a 6. He was sold to K-League Suwon in Dec 2008 for a 800k pounds. Lulinha become a regular for Suwon immediately and saw his new Korean side take home the East Asian Champions League. His CA increased 29 points which isn't too bad.

Dean Vaughn - 18 yr - DC - BYU Cougars

2007 - 66/189

2009 - 68/189

Dean played a total of 45 league games for BYU Cougars and had relatively good ratings. However, it was a complete disaster in terms of development with only increase of 2 CA. This area needs to be looked at by SI.

Thiago - 18 yr - MC - Zarazoga

2007 - 90/173

2009 - 124/173

Thiago didn't get to play much his first season. He got one game in Barcelona B and 3 games with the senior team. He was sold to Zaragoza for 1.2m pounds at the beginning of the 08-09 season. For Zaragoza, Thiago again played sporadically with 2 reserve games. It is somewhat surprising that he didn't get more games in the reserve leagues. This could be caused by the Spanish registration bug. However, his development was quite good, gaining 34 in CA.

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Tracking players - Savegame 3

Lulinha - 21 yr - AMC - Braga

2007 - 104/187

2009 - 133/187

2011 - 150/187

Lulinha played ok for Suwon with 36 league games and 25 cup games. In July 2011, he was sent to Braga for 1.9m pounds. His two years of service in the K-League saw a gain of 17 CA. If Lulinha is to reach full potential by 24, he'll have to pick up the slate a bit.

Dean Vaughn - 20 yr - DC - BYU Cougars

2007 - 66/189

2009 - 68/189

2011 - 73/189

What a waste of a talent! Dean played 52 games for BYU Cougars in the last two years. He was also picked by New York in the MLS draft and sent off to NOVA FC in the loan. Despite playing regularly for NOVA FC, Dean only increased his CA by 5. Seems like playing in USA does nothing for development.

Thiago - 20 yr - MC - Zaragoza

2007 - 90/173

2009 - 124/173

2011 - 151/173

Thiago's third season included 7 games in Zaragoza's senior team which surprisingly won the Champions League. The fourth season had him playing 18 games in league and 6 in cup. He also earned his first international cap for Brazil at age 19 against Denmark. In terms of development, Thiago is really blossoming into a good player with an increase of 27 CA.

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Tracking players - Savegame 4

Lulinha - 23 yr - AMC - Braga

2007 - 104/187

2009 - 133/187

2011 - 150/187

2013 - 174/187

Lulinha well for Braga with 13 league games at 6.85 rating. Just after one season, Napoli came knocking and picked him up for 5.5m pounds. At Napoli, Lulinha played 35 league games at 6.51 rating. His development went up 24 points. He might reach full potential after all. No caps yet.

Dean Vaughn - 22 yr - DC - BYU Cougars

2007 - 66/189

2009 - 68/189

2011 - 73/189

2013 - 82/189

Dean spent another year on loan at NOVA FC before getting shipped off to California. At California, he played 30 games. However, Dean should really find another profession as his CA is still only 82 after 6 years of simulation.

Thiago - 20 yr - MC - Inter

2007 - 90/173

2009 - 124/173

2011 - 151/173

2013 - 165/173

Thiago played regularly for Zaragoza in the last two years and did quite well. He was sold to Inter for 17m pounds. His CA is now at 165 and is within 8 of full potential. However, Inter might not guarantee a 165 CA player a regular spot. Will this hurt Thiago?

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by bflaff:

Sin8: Cool experiment. Would you be able to do the same exact thing with 07 and compare the results? That would indicate if there really is something different between 07 and 08 that is responsible, and how great the difference is.

And if other people have scout genie and 08 they can run the same experiment and see if they get similar results. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

I've already deleted FM07 from my computer. However, I played 20+ seasons on it and never realized any big problems with regens.

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SIN8, you have really done a good job here, mate, keep on it! icon14.gif

and I'm sure SI will recognize it one day(probably after enjoying their christmas holiday)

Beside that, I think SI should consider hiring SIN8 as one of their testing team, because the currently testing team they have can't even figure out this obvious BUG icon_wink.gif

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