I have a similar experience. According to my hypothesis, the board evaluates the title correctly in 17/18 season, since this is the last season played classically. Starting from season 18/19, the first division is divided (after 30 rounds) into 3 groups (group of competitors for the title, group of competitors for the last UEFA league slot, relegation group). I think that this complications in rules lead to wrong evaluation of the board confidence. I will need to do more tests to be sure.