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Joey Numbaz

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166 "Just keep swimming"

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About Me

  • About Me
    http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/hall_of_merit/

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  • Interests
    Baseball

Favourite Team

  • Favourite Team
    Everton, Napoli, Ajax

Currently Managing

  • Currently Managing
    Everton

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  1. I have a huge shortlist, basically every new gen in the UK. I just started doing this about a week ago. It's 1548 players. I run a huge database, with every country playable and full detail on all leagues, even youth leagues. So my Wednesday evenings and Saturdays in game took forever even before this. But now they seem to last even longer. Significantly longer. So I was wondering if somehow the things associated with keeping tabs on that shortlist (I get an inbox item every time one of them gets released or goes on a trial somewhere, etc.) at that scale could be slowing things down even further?
  2. Oh for sure, I agree it shouldn't count. But they also call it a double in the game if you win the Community Shield and something else like the League or the FA Cup, etc. So I thought maybe it would count. I was more commenting just to let future people who find this post know it didn't count :-)
  3. I just won the Community Shield and it does not seem to have satisfied the promise.
  4. Very player dependent. I try to not do anything that conflicts with a player's PPMs so they can do their thing. I kept less urgent pressing for the middle DC and MC (DLP) I have both MCR/MCL get further forward if they are capable. I don't have them hold position, which works for my players. At least one of them getting forward is needed to stretch the attack in central midfield. And when both do you get interchanging partnerships which also helps to make the attack more dynamic. Everyone who isn't a centerback gets shoot less, except for the striker (the DLP has this by default).
  5. I experimented with this as well FM20 over the last real life month or so, 2nd season in with Everton. Just decided to go cold turkey one day as I was far exceeding board expectations, and looking great for Champions League re-qualification anyway. It went really nicely. Messing around with the PIs for the MCL and MCR a lot, I changed them up almost every game. I had everyone but Haaland shoot less often too. I signed Eljif Elmas to be the W-A on the right, but Richarlison played so well in that role. He ended up scoring 10 EPL goals in just 26 games (23 starts), and I don't think he had any before the switch. 5 PoM awards too. I absolutely recommend someone with great work rate and great for a winger tackling on the wings if you are doing this - so much responsibility there. Elmas is so well rounded that he fit the mold there too, but he only played 8 league games at MR because Richarlison refused to leave the lineup. I nearly sold Richarlison at the winter deadline, but he scored 3 goals in his previous 2 games (only 150 minutes played) and I was like, nah, let's keep him. The deal was agreed to and I backed out last minute. He did not disappoint, other than getting hurt 2 months later, but I digress. Adding it all up EPL: 17-4, 3 draws; 47-19 goal differential (31-11 after a 16-8 start, took some time to learn it up) - I had started out 7-1, 1 draw, 23-4 goal differential. But I had been playing that tactic since the previous March. Maybe I should have stuck with that one? The schedule had been fairly easy to that point, including 2 of the eventual relagatees. I was 2-1, 2 draws the final 5 games across EPL/CL, 7-5 goals. So it felt like time for a switch. Champions League: Won the group of death (Bayern, Barcelona, Inter, Everton) easily, 3-0, 1 draw after switching to this tactic - 7-3 goal differential. I was losing 2-0 in the Bayern game at halftime and won 3-2, finally getting the win after being down 2 at halftime achievement! But lost 0-0, 0-1 to Marseille in an awful luck round of 16. Outshot them 14-8, 2-1 CCC, 56% possession in the second leg at home, their goal came from a long shot. Brutal. The old tactic I had beat Bayern 3-0 and drew with Barca 2-2. FA Cup: Terrible first round loss to Norwich at home, 0-1. Thought I could get away with not playing the full strength side and it bit me. Then of course I got bored, lost to Norwich 1-0 again (talk about a boogey team), had 2nd place locked up for the most part with no other competitions and wanted to play a libero tactic. So I tried one version then tweaked it after two games to push the DR to MR and mixed up the roles some to compensate. Finished the last 3 games out with this. The only tweak is Digne was hurt so I played Gvardiol at DL, Mina or Kana or Ajer at DCL and AJer or Kana at MCR. The only player instruction is the IWR gets further forward. I still used a lot of the principles from the 3-6-1 system especially on the defensive side of things, as well as only a Winger on the right side. It's surprisingly well balanced for an asymmetric tactic. Kulusevski has comes deep to get ball, which I think helps out in terms of keeping the tactic solid, but I still instruct him to get forward when he can to stretch the attack on that side of the pitch. I won the last 5 games, outscoring opponents 12-1 - Camavinga with 2 goals in his first ever game as a DC as the Libero - Attack! Both were assisted by free kicks but who cares! Those games included huge wins over City (Stones got red carded out when we were already up 1-0, but both of his yellows were him mugging Haaland to avoid a breakaway), who is going to the Champions League Final after beating Liverpool 1-0, 0-0 in the semis, and Liverpool who won the league with 98 points - 2 games in 3 days there. The one goal allowed in those 5 games was a corner against Liverpool, when we were already up 2-0. Liverpool only gave up 16 league goals all year and we got 2 in this game. We also drew a lot of fouls and cards - 67 total fouls and 16 yellow cards for our opponents in 5 games. Did 18-year old Talles Magno like this tactic as a DLF "support"? I'd say yes: As well as Haaland as the "attack" duty guy: Thinking about it a little more, I was 12-1-1, outscoring opponents 35-5 when not using the 3-6-1 ... and (not counting the League Cup games where I played bad opponents and/or my own kids) 20-6, with 5 draws, 54-24 when using the 3-6-1. Maybe I need to tweak something in the team instructions to refine it a little more, especially defensively. Also, against the Champions League squads in and out of league, I was 5-3, 2 draws and 12-10 goals when using the 3-6-1. Against everyone else, 15-3, 3 draws, 42-14 with that tactic. I think it can be tightened up some, especially against good teams. But I am not exactly sure of how while keeping that formation. Better defenders for one. Gvardiol-Keane-Mina and sometimes Ajer in back isn't nearly as good as the rest of the team. I feel like the selling out press wise makes sense with such a heavy midfield presence.
  6. I can go a little overboard when inspired :-) That and I had a 4-day weekend from work, needed a project! Any thoughts on why I am missing so many chances? Did you notice the footedness of the strikers being important? Any ideas on how I can reduce the headers? I'm thinking turn off early crosses and maybe even turn on work ball into the box. But open to any ideas before I start to expirement. Yes, but you also have a 3-men back line, one of which is the libero, who virtually acts as a quasi-midfielder in possession Yeah you still have a 3-1 or 2-2 defense when attacking, depending on how involved the libero chooses to be. Often he stays back with the other defenders, but he does provide support for the half back when he's being pressured as well. And with good work rates the DWers do a pretty good just getting back too. You can turn them to defend duty if the other team is exposing you also. It is a very fun tactic to watch, outside of all the missed headers :-)
  7. Very interesting about headers being a disproportionate share of key chances. I'll try to keep an eye on this. Player BRA STR JMP HEA ANT HDR% HDRwon90 Key Spahic 10 15 16 14 16 63% 4.67 89 Haaland 15 17 16 14 17 71% 5.90 117 Lautaro 18 14 11 14 17 41% 2.23 54 Ramos 13 14 15 15 15 59% 3.25 62 Spahic and Haaland get most of the headers. i think they are all pretty good here. Martinez is short, but he's decent otherwise. He only wins 41% of headers. Of course winning a header and making a headed shot are a little different. Haaland was 4th in the league amongst attackers/AM in headers won and second in key headers with 87 in league. For whatever that is worth.
  8. Thanks for all of the insight, it's definitely helping point me in the right direction. Filtering on attackers and attacking mids for the leaderboard I get this - it stinks that they don't remove penalties for this. Or even show you on the page how many penalties a guy had. % Goals Shots 21% 18 82 21% 13 61 20% 16 79 inflated by 2-for-3 on penalties actually 18.4% 17% 15 88 16% 25 151 16% 15 91 inflated by 3 penalties actually 13.6% 16% 12 73 this is Lautaro inflated by 1 penalty actually 15.3% 16% 9 56 15% 7 44 this is the corpse of Harry Kane at age 34, inflated by 3 penalties actually 9.8% 15% 10 66 15% 11 73 inflated by 4-for-6 on penalties actually 10.4% It looks like anything 15% or better is really good in league play. Only 8 attackers/attacking mids in the league hit 15% if you discount penalties.
  9. These are two things I actually look for! I pretty much never have a player who is bad in big matches, and I am pretty sure everyone is at worst not inconsistent. I have decided not to buy a 5-star superstar ratings wise, because he's fairly inconsistent. Spahic - dark green consistent, nothing for big matches. But he's still only 21, and I've never seen that on a scouting report before a player is 22 Haaland - dark green consistent, relishes big matches Lautaro - dark green consistent, enjoys big matches Ramos - dark green very consistent, nothing for big matches Gauidn - dark green consistent, nothing for big matches Princigalli - light green fairly consistent, thrives on playing in big matches. I don't know that I've ever noticed that as a thing before, sounds even better than relishes!
  10. Definitely understand what you are saying here. I think it's probably the headed attempts that's the biggest issue. Any ideas for how to reduce that? Obviously cutting down crosses would help. We had the most headers won in the league 1213, and the highest percentage won 67%. I try to get tall players everywhere. We had by far the most crosses in the league. 487 completed (at 32%). Second place was 386 at 24%, and 3rd was 311 at 22%. So we are great at getting on the other end of crosses. Breaking it down before the 343 formation - 274 crosses completed, which prorates to 434 per 38 games at 31% using the 343 formation - 213 crosses completed, which prorates to 578(!) per 38 games at 33% That is a ton of crosses wow. The 442 did not have hit early crosses, though the winger on the left and the fullback on the right have cross more often by default. In the 343 both defensive wingers have cross more often by default. And since the complete forwards are staying wider they cross a lot too. before 343 cross attempts per 90: Spahic 1.3 Haaland 4.8 (as a Wa from the left) Lautaro 1.3 Ramos 1.4 Gaudin 5.5 (as a FBs left) Princigalli 14.4 (as a FBa right mostly) 343 cross attempts per 90: Spahic 5.3(!) (CFs staying wider) Haaland 3.5 (CFs staying wider) Lautaro 0.8 (AFa) Ramos 0.6 (AMs) Gaudin 9.3 (as a DWs left) Princigalli 15.4 (as a DWs right)
  11. Oh wow - yes, we are low there. This is combining both tactics, I can't split them out, but (stats don't included penalties): Player Goals Shots % Spahic 16 169 9.5% Haaland 16 182 8.8% (he played Wa in the 442) Lautaro 18 126 14.3% Ramos 14 113 12.4% (he played striker in the 442) Part of the reason I changed the tactics was that I wanted to find a way to get all four of these guys on the field at the same time. In the 442 I was limited to 3 at a time. Ah wait! I can find a save from around the time I switched tactics and subtract those out. Before the switch 442 (3 games with other formations) prorated to 90 minutes Player Goals Shots % Spahic 0.48 4.46 10.9% Haaland 0.40 5.04 8.0% (as a Wa from the left) Lautaro 0.42 2.69 15.5% Ramos 0.50 3.59 13.9% Total 1.80 15.64 11.6% After the switch (343) protated to 90 minutes Player Goals Shots % Spahic 0.35 4.51 7.8% (usually CFs on the R and he's right footed) Haaland 0.46 4.68 9.8% (usually CFs on the L and he's left footed Lautaro 0.46 3.46 13.2% (usually AFa in the middle and he's right footed) Ramos 0.19 2.10 8.8% (he's an AMC mostly now only occassionally a CF on the right when rotating) Total 1.48 14.82 10.0%
  12. While they are not perfect, and I am sure there are cases where things like a defender in the way are an issue, this is tough to argue with (CCC-P is clear cut chances not counting penalties, and goals also does not include penalties). That's a pretty good association there. They definitely are not meaningless, even if they are not perfect. It's a good rule of thumb, at least on FM20, that every 5 CCC should result in 2 goals (just from the CCC - you will get other goals too of course) for an average team, depending on the quality of the players shooting, of course.
  13. I think the big thing is that the other great teams in the league, all way outperform their xG compared to the average. Which makes sense since they have they superstars up front. I feel like I should be doing that also since I too have some of the best players in the world, but I am not. I should be converting chances much higher than the average - which tells me something is broken. I do have a lot of headed chances. For sure. That could be part of it. I try to get tall players with good heading but this makes a lot of sense. Even with low crosses ticked. Nothing too crazy in here re: blocked shots. I highlighted the other great teams plus Manchester United, just to show how they are all better than xG, as expected. My blocked shots don't look out of line with them, and while I have a lot more shots off target, I also have a lot more on target too. Maybe I could turn off the hit early crosses and see how that works?
  14. I don't find any evidence of that. CCC very clearly across the entire league is strongly associated with goals. There is no way around that based on the analysis I did in the first post. I think the onus is on people who say they are flawed to prove it. Half chances on the other hand - yes, they don't mean much of anything, other than any other shot from the box.
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