Jump to content

mustardpower

Members+
  • Content Count

    700
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

1 "What we've got here is a failure to communicate"

About mustardpower

  • Rank
    Amateur

Currently Managing

  • Currently Managing
    Benfica

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. My mum suffers from various mental illnesses and she volunteers at a charity shop when she is feeling able to. It won't pay the bills so maybe its not an option but It really helps her so maybe it could do the same for your wife, hope this helps
  2. I rate FM 2012 and 07 the highest. FM 2012 was the last version you could get a whole team of foreign players to move continents for £100 a week in Blue Square North. Wasn't realistic at all but I wish that was still possible.
  3. I'm pretty sure this wouldn't happen but I'd love the Faceless Men cult to steal Arya's face and wreak some havoc. I'm not really sure what they'd do with it but I'd like a long term goal to be revealed rather than being just a bunch of folks who like collecting faces. Unfortunately that is probably all they are.
  4. This weeks selections are all big boys: Atletico Madrid Benfica Chelsea Juventus Peterhead Celtic Bayern Rangers Man City
  5. Went for a ridiculous accumulator this week of: Schalke Real Madrid Cambridge Twente Roma Modena Borussia Monchengladbach Southampton Sporting Lisbon Wolves Ajax AZ Olympiakos Fenerbahce Benfica Great news is Schalke won 2-0 so only another 14 results to go my way
  6. Porto Kaiserslautern Atalanta Feyenoord Juventus Benfica These are the teams my betting predictor says has the best chance of winning today and tomorrow although they may not be good value bets. I put an accumulator on anyway because I fancied a flutter!
  7. AC 3 forgot that games should be fun to play. AC 1 & 2 are much better games but I would say 1 was the best as I thought that it suited an assassin more. When playing the second one I just felt it was quite obvious who the assassin was as he was the only guy in the city who's dress sense was completely different to everyone else. I could go on forever how much I hate AC 3 because although it is visually impressive its only fun parts are running around which you can do in 1 & 2 anyway without a 4 hour tutorial.
  8. Basically cannot make a loss with my system this week now as I would have £66.49 return from a £67.58 stake so I only require one from the seven remaining games to ensure I get at least a small profit.
  9. OK im going to look stupid here but the games that I posted yesterday are not the right ones entirely there was a fault in my program that calculated something slightly wrong which altered some of the results This is the revised list although there are quite a few teams that are the same and some teams have now been effected by a change in their odds. Motherwell(A) 3.19 9 PaddyPower 0.28 £3.02 Sunderland(A) 2.01 10 BetVictor 0.12 £1.29 Stevenage(A) 1.99 3.1 BlueSquare 0.53 £5.72 ManCity/Stoke 1.90 5.25 BetVictor 0.24 £2.59 Southport(A) 1.82 4.35 Unibet 0.28 £3.02 Clyde(A) 1.80 5.75 Be
  10. WEEK 4 - USING LAST WEEKS RETURNS OF £67.58 After the weekends now 3 wins out of 3 so here is the advised bets from my predictor. I want to ignore the Celtic and Rangers games but I'll go with it and see what happens as the Celtic game at the weekend did win. I'm a little wary there are less selections this week so a little less room for error but I've decided I'm not putting on real money for another few sets of games just to make sure (I know that I am the most cautious and frugal man alive). TEAM VALUE ODDS BOOKMAKER STAKE Motherwell(A) 4.66 9.5 PaddyPower £4.64 Annan(H) 2.48 13 Ladbro
  11. As Notts County didn't play the stake was down to £55.43 but if I have worked it out correctly these bets will return £67.58 meaning a profit of £12.15 meaning I increased my starting stake by 21.9%. That's 3 weeks in a row now its returned a profit so I'm seriously considering using real money next set of games
  12. I haven't written any down but obviously you can work them out by rearranging the equation probability * odds = value so for instance my calculated odds for a Doncaster win is 3.2*probability = 2.05 so my calculated probability of a Doncaster win is 2.05/3.2 so 0.640625 also as I've used Kelly betting for my stakes you may notice that the more risky fixtures have a lower stake on them than other fixtures.
  13. No the value coefficient is given by odds*probability The odds are from the bookmakers and the probability is what I have calculated
  14. Here is the list of the teams that I would be betting on this weekend from what my betting predictor results give using a £58.36 bankroll as this is what I would now have from the previous two sets of games I've tested on. If I gain a profit here I will actually put money on next week. The teams are selected by value rather than probability that they win and this explains some of the teams you may think are a bit stupid. The odds used to calculate the value are the best available from about 8 different bookmakers of which I only have accounts for Ladbrokes and William Hill so next week I may
  15. Finally think I may have cracked it with my predictor I still haven't used real money yet but if I'm profitable next round of games this weekend I'll be tempted to risk some money on the next set of games. So far within two weeks I've managed to increase my theoretical starting bankroll by 71% from betting on individual games over 2 gameweeks. Fingers crossed but so far so good, its a bit annoying that the foreign leagues are on breaks at the minute so there are less games to test on.
×
×
  • Create New...