This happens in almost every season for me. But does happen both ways. Initially I take over a relatively weak team, which in the first season, barely manages to stay in the league withotu getting relegated. Second season, I play absolutely pathetically initially and languish in 16th spot, but suddenly win 12 out of 14 or something , while every team above me till 4rth or 5th place starts droppign points big time, and I end up between 4rth and 6th. Third season (sometimes 4rth), I take an insane lead initially against all odds and am 14 points foff the top, adn then suddenly start losing regularly, while atleast 1 team below me WINS EVERY GAME, and finally wins the head to head (which is among the last 5 games of the season), and take the championship , while I come 3rd or something. Next season, I win title. Somehow this happens in every game, with nearly every team I play Fixed? I dunno. But the game definitely tries to increase your odds of progress when you are lower down the table, while majorly increasing the winning probability of atleast one rival when you are leading the table.