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Jason the Yank

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Posts posted by Jason the Yank


  1. I'm amazed by your knowledge of baseball, so yes my approach it's not purely moneyball, though i used i this word regardless this because I wanted to highlight some peculiar things i'm doing in this save regarding the transfers. I use a stastical approach valuing player, i'm not relying entirely on scout reports as i really go deep in the valutation of players (personality, PPM, previous season statistics, SOT and so on).

    I also consider the value the value per money, of course considering how much wage they demand. I have to admit that this second part it's more subjective as i don't have any spreadsheet or math formula for that. Thanks for your consideration, please let me know if you have other things to add.

    I am interested in how you get on, because FM is frustrating me a little bit in that I can't seem seem to access its deeper stats easily, especially to make comparisons ("OK, my forward gets 56% of his shots on target. How does that stand in relation to the rest of the players in the league, who took 20 or more shots on the season?" )

    As for baseball, I am American and predate MLS. :D So baseball was my first love growing up. I had some of the early(ish; mid-80s) Bill James Baseball Abstracts, which helped lay the foundation for sabermetrics and Moneyball.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_James#The_Bill_James_Baseball_Abstracts


  2. Wednesday, 31 January, 2018

    Motherwell are sniffing around two of our young players on Deadline Day. I knocked back their offer for Gavin Whitmore without question, which upset him. They also tried prying AMC Gavin Burgess away; I was more willing to let him go (he's a substitute), but they withdrew after I tried to negotiate $1,000 up front, plus $30,000 after 30 games, plus 25% of next sale profit, plus a friendly. Burgess was upset about, but relaxed when I said I'd accept an offer closer to our valuation. Both players have a valuation of $750, but Motherwell tried to get them for free.

    Friday, 2 February, 2018

    Bangor City 5-4 Airbus UK (Premier League Championship Conference)

    Seriously? Where has this been all season? Gavin Whitmore showed why I wanted to hold onto him, reaching a 50-50 ball and quickly sending it over the top to Iwan Ainsworth, who poked it home to give us the lead in the 5th minute. We were back on level terms in the 23rd minute thanks to some calamity goalkeeping as a header rattled the bar, landed just out of Liam Matthew's reach; an Airbus attacker got a very weak touch to it, Matthews got an even weaker touch on it and it proceeded to roll across the line. We were back on top in the 35th minute thanks to an excellent team goal, where Ainsworth reached the ball on the (goalkeeper's) right side of the penalty area, laid it back to Sion Edwards near the top corner, where he almost immediately crossed into the box for Yora Enzam to half-volley from almost dead-center at the top of the 6-yard box. We extended our advantage in the 40th minute when Sam Faulkner sent a ball over the top, Ainsworth reached it near the top of the box, cut to his right and curled a hopeful looking shot inside the near post. So looking good, only for us to concede on the brink of halftime from a give-and-go. The goals keep flying in in the second half, with Airbus equalizing in the 62nd minute from a powerful effort from about 20 yards out. Can't complain too much, it was a great goal. But we were back on top in the 68th minute when Enzam decided he should match Ainsworth's brace as Damien Allen played a square ball inside the area that Enzam quickly fired in for a goal. So 4-3, that should be it, right? Wrong. Airbus AGAIN pulled us back in the 81st minute when they got a second bite of the cherry from a corner. I was hurt, felt like we were going to have to settle for a draw. But the captain finally dragged us over the line in the 85th minute as our right back Ryan Edwards got forward on the overlap and crossed for Sion Edwards to come roaring in and volley into the back of the net. Winner winner chicken dinner. If you're scoring at home, or even if you're by yourself, that's 3 times Airbus equalized, the teams combined for 30 shots (16 for us, 14 for them), with each getting 8 on target. Time of possession was split 51-49 in our favor. And we combined for only 4 fouls. I'm exhausted now.

    0203%20record_zpsiekgbe0g.png

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    Wednesday, 7 February, 2018

    Bangor City 1-0 Connah's Quay (Premier League Championship Conference)

    Well they can't all be goalfests. The only tally came in the 27th minute thanks to some Sion Edwards patience. He got to a through ball at the side of the 6-yard box, and with the tight angle waited for the Connah's Quay defense to overcommit to him; he then played a simple square ball to Iwan Ainsworth almost dead center at the top of the 6-yard box for a simple finish. We got a bit of help from Connah's Quay's wayward shooting (just 2 of their 13 shots were on target), but we got 9 of 15 on target and held 58% possession

    Sunday, 11 February, 2018

    Llandudno 2-3 Bangor City (Premier League Championship Conference)

    A few fluky goals in this one. Not the first though, as Llandudno took the lead in the 8th minute from a free kick that went flew straight into the net. We hit back in the 11th minute though, as our left back Scott Evans crossed in for a Yora Enzam header that floated over the goalkeeper (who maybe could have done better with it) and into the net. We then grabbed the lead in the 42nd minute when Sam Faulkner pinged a ball down the left for Sion Edwards to catch up to and shoot near post for the goal; incredibly, our captain and left wing has a double-double for the season (10 goals and 13 assists). But again we couldn't hold a lead when in the 60th minute we got a bit 6s and 7s after initially turning aside a Llandudno counterattack; they quickly recovered and their right wing beat our left back off the mark for "a deftly executed finish." But Lady Luck aided us in the 72nd minute when right back Ryan Edwards' deep cross kept sailing, over the goalkeeper and into the net.

    Sunday, 18 February, 2018

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    Bangor City 2-0 Aberystwyth (Premier League Championship Conference)

    Scoreboard, son. I hate going against this narrow 4-3-3, but I thought back to the cup win against Barry: Play for counterattacks, go down the flanks. And sure enough, we went down the left side in the 11th minute; Iwan Ainsworth got into a channel crossed to Damien Allen coming down the right. Allen's shot was palmed away by the diving goalkeeper, but right back to Allen's feet and he didn't miss out on the second opportunity. It was all hands on deck in the 41st minute as Aberystwyth had a couple of chances, but somehow we were able to keep the ball out of the net. We added some insurance in the 50th minute when right back Ryan Edwards received a return of his throw-in in the attacking third, crossed to the far post, where Ainsworth dummied and allowed Sion Edwards to shoot from close range into an empty net. And we ran out from there.

    0218%20postmatch_zpsbwrt80ra.png

    Saturday, 24 February, 2018

    Bangor 3-0 Prestatyn (JD Welsh Cup Quarterfinal)

    It took us a little while to get going, but after about the 10th minute we were in total control even if didn't look that way on the scoreboard. We took the lead in the 23rd minute when a long ball found Yora Enzam; he had a Prestatyn defender marked tightly on him, but somehow had enough space to get a shot away and beat the goalkeeper near post. We kept pushing but couldn't find any insurance until the 78th minute, when Enzam's forward run toward Damien Allen was intercepted by the Prestatyn defender; the ball bounced about halfway between the defender and the goalkeeper and as they converged on it, so did Enzam. All three came together at the same time but Enzam's sliding effort poked the ball away, and he was first up off the ground and able to stroll the ball into the net. We made it 3-0 in the 81st minute thanks to Enzam again, catching up to a long ball, and drawing both Prestatyn centerbacks before laying it off to a wide open Alex Darlington who was able to finish a one-on-one opportunity.

    I'm making friends all over Wales now:

    0225%20cup%20spat_zpsevuh061d.png

    0225%20cup%20response_zpsrrywnrop.png

    26 February, 2018

    YES! We draw Carmarthen away in the JD Welsh Cup semifinal. It's by far the easiest one we could have got as the other two sides are Llandudno (2nd in the league) and TNS (1st)

    Meanwhile....

    0301%20player%20of%20the%20month_zpsgeeacows.png

    0301%20manager%20of%20the%20month_zpsfvxxgfxj.png

    0301%20welsh%20premier%20league_zpskhpqamnq.png

    So a clean sweep of the month in all competition, and a Manager of the Month award for me. We're at the business end of the season with just 5 matches to go; unfortunately, we have to play TNS twice, and likely three times assuming we get past lower-league Carmarthen in the cup semifinal (we should, as the only Premier League side they've beaten on this run was Pen-y-Bont in the quarterfinal) and TNS beats Llandudno in the other one.

    We're flying now and though we have no chance of catching TNS, a 3rd place finish is still achievable. Most likely though we'll have the long road when the playoff for European places comes up. Still, this is a hell of a lot better than having the sack hanging over me.


  3. Wow, this has gone wrong very quickly. I didn't know the Welsh league splits, is it top 6 for the title, bottom 6 to avoid relegation?

    Yep. Play everyone in the league twice (22 matches). Then it splits into a "Championship Conference" and a "Playoff Conference". The playoff conference is to avoid relegation. Play everyone in your group twice for an additional 10 matches.

    The good thing for us is that under the league rules, teams in the playoff conference can't overtake teams in the championship conference. So even if we end up with fewer points than, say, Port Talbot or Bala, we'll still be considered to finish 6th and their league finish can't be higher than 7th.

    And what's your board minimum expectations, qualifying for the top 6, or more than that?

    Top half. I'm hoping making it there removes the points requirement, but I suspect they would have said something once the split happened. So as far as I'm concerned, I still need to beat Airbus to comply with the board's points demand.


  4. Tuesday, 2 January, 2018

    Prestatyn 1-3 Bangor City (Premier League)

    So the bid to save my job starts now. I made a small tactical tweak heading in: I'd had the back 4 all on "defend" duty and decided to change the fullbacks to "support" duty to better link up with our wingers; our BWM MC Gavin Whitmore was moved from "support" to "defend" duty to give a little extra spine down the middle. But we hit the post from a floating header in the 7th minute and I had a bad feeling. But in the 9th minute Sion Edwards got to a poor clearance from the Prestatyn backline and shot inside the far post. We doubled our advantage in the 15th minute when Yora Enzam was played by his running mate Iwan Ainsworth for a close-range finish. Prestatyn threatened late in the half, but in the 45th minute Ainsworth smartly held still (arguably in a passive offside position) on our right back's cross, allowing Edwards to come in from the left for a goal, this time at the near post. Prestatyn pulled one back in the 54th minute from a cross-cum-shot, but never threatened any further. A vital result for us as well, because other results don't go in our favor, leaving us 3 points adrift of the top-6 with 2 matches before the split. And Port Talbot won as result to stay level on points with us.

    Friday, 5 January, 2018

    Bangor City 0-3 Aberystwyth (Premier League)

    An absolutely massive match, with Aberystwyth in the top 6 and one of only 2 teams we can catch before the split. And then we concede twice in the first 6 minutes. I changed tactics at halftime (as well as telling the team to pull their fingers out), away from the 4-1-2-3 I trotted out to counter Aberystwyth's narrow 4-3-3 and instead going to our standard 4-4-2. But nothing happened, other than Aberystwyth putting the boot into us from a corner in the 80th minute. A match we had to have, and we lay an egg; we took 10 shots and got 2 on target; Aberystwyth took 17 shots and got 12 on target. And now we're left nervously hoping Bala somehow lose on Saturday at 11th placed Pen-y-Bont to keep our top-6 hopes on life support; Port Talbot are at bottom side Cefn Druids.

    AND INCREDIBLY, YES! Port Talbot win away to jump past us, but Bala lose to drop into 7th. They're at 2nd placed side Llandudno next week, whilst we get Port Talbot at home.

    The table currently is:

    6. Port Talbot	30 (+2)
    ----------------------
    7. Bala		30 (-5)
    8. BANGOR CITY	27 (+1)
    

    Thursday, 11 January, 2018

    The vultures are circling:

    0118%20vulture_zpsvmerx1nn.png

    Saturday, 13 January, 2018

    Bangor City 1-0 Port Talbot (Premier League)

    Well if I'm going to go down, it's going to be "SAY HELLO TO MY LITTLE FRIEND!" style. So I set us to attack.

    Bala take the lead on 3 minutes, but are pulled back 2 minutes later.

    Bala fall behind in the 29th minute.

    It's a dire match in Bangor until the 41st minute when right wing Damien Allen sends in a cross that Sion Edwards races in after and ... BURIES IT INTO THE BACK OF THE NET! BANGOR CITY HAVE TAKEN THE LEAD!

    At halftime the table is:

    6. BANGOR CITY	30 (+2)
    -----------------------
    7. Port Talbot	30 (+1)
    8. Bala		30 (-6)
    

    I warn the team againt complacency and tell them not to think the job is done. Almost to a man, they "seemed to gain focus" or "seemed motivated" (except Sion Edwards, who merely "listened keenly")

    Oh ****. We need our goalkeeper Liam Matthews to make 3 saves in quick succession in the 65th minute. But he comes through.

    GAH! Bala equalize in the 78th minute to drop us back into 7th.

    LLANDUDNO SCORE IN THE 88TH MINUTE!

    It ain't pretty (the teams combined for 24 shots and get 7 of them on target), we we hang on for the win. And equally as important, Llandudo also hang on. We scrape into 6th on goal difference and book a spot in the Championship Conference.

    Saturday, 20 January, 2018

    Aberystwyth 2-0 Bangor City (Premier League, Championship Conference)

    So right back on the horse against the team that smoked us 2 weeks earlier. And in the meantime I still need 2 points from 2 to meet the board's demand. And we're on the telly. This time I decide to stick with the 4-4-2 (it is the formation Aberystwyth reportedly have the most trouble with). We catch a small break in the 3rd minute when an Aberystwyth forward has go off injured, but we're undone in the 17th minute when an Aberystwyth attacker gets inside our left back and on the end of a cross for a close-range finish. We're a little better after that, but we still can't get anything going. And then we're undone by another cross in the 70th minute, this one from left to right. Somehow, we have more shots (17-9), more of them on target (9-3) and more possession (54-46) but we never look like winning. Most of our shots must have been pretty tame, because I don't remember many of them coming up in the highlights.

    Saturday, 27 January, 2018

    Barry Town United 2-5 Bangor City (Welsh Cup, Fourth Round)

    Lower league opposition, so this should be a stroll in the park right? Well, we've lost our only 2 meetings with Barry, we're away, and they play that narrow 4-3-3 that gives us fits. So I decided to make discretion the better part of value, playing a counterattacking game. We hit the post and had another shot cleared off the line in the first 20 minutes. We broke through in the 26th when a shot from a corner was blocked, but fell to Sam Faulkner's feet at the far post; he shot smartly to register his first goal for the club. We doubled the advantage in the 36th minute when Sion Edwards crossed to Damien Allen standing in acres of space just outside the penalty area; he took a few steps into the penalty area, drawing 3 Barry defenders before unleashing a dart just inside the far post. We grabbed a third goal shortly before halftime from Sion Edwards' cross-cum-shot that fluttered over the goalkeeper into the goal. We made it 0-4 coming out of halftime when Damien Allen caught up to a forward ball near the goalline and corkscrewed a cross for Edwards to finish from close range. And then everybody decided the job was finished, and we predictably conceded in the 69th and 71st minutes to give Barry a glimmer of hope. But we killed it off in the 83rd minute when Sion Edwards took a free kick on the right (he's left footed and plays ML), crossing into the penalty area where our center back Leon Clowes was able to lash it home for a goal, also his first for the club.

    Monday, 29 January, 2018

    We're drawn home against Prestatyn in the Welsh Cup Quarterfinal. Would have been nice to get Carmarthen (the last lower-league club still in the competition), but this works as well.

    0201%20welsh%20premier%20league_zpsgtg2q0zw.png

    So we've achieved the minimum target of being in the championship group. TNS are disappearing over the horizon leaving the rest of us to merely hope we can finish as high up the table as possible. We're well behind the rest of the clubs in the top 6, so I might make the Welsh Cup our priority and see if we can't get some silverware.

    First things first though, there's still 1 match and 2 points left from the board's demand (at least, I don't think squeezing into the top 6 changed that, though I wouldn't have been shocked if I'd been sacked for failing to reach it). That will come at home against Airbus to kick off the month of February. I'm guessing that becomes a "must win" match, as a draw would leave me 1 point short of the target. And the board expected a run to the cup semifinal, so I can't fall back on exceeding expectations there.


  5. Friday, 1 December, 2017

    Bangor City 1-3 TNS (Premier League)

    Perhaps the game could have been different. We were awarded a penalty in the 21st minute, only for the TNS goalkeeper to save it. Then we had a 24th minute counterattack that was too slow in developing; we turned it over and TNS showed us how it was done. We got back onto level terms almost straight out of the halftime tunnel as Sion Edwards sent in a perfectly weighted cross that youngster Neil Cooke was able to tap home for a simple finish. But TNS got back on top in the 56th minute when nobody picked out the forward attacking the near post on a corner. They added another in the 87th minute.

    Saturday, 9 December, 2017

    Llandudno 2-1 Bangor City (Premier League)

    Throwing away more points. We got into halftime still scoreless, but took the lead in the 52nd minute when the Llandudno goalkeeper spilled Iwan Ainsworth's shot into the path of Yora Enzam for a simple finish. But we were pulled back in the 70th minute off a free kick from the side of the penalty area (hey, maybe don't have one player trying to mark four), and lost it all 3 minutes later from a really good move that our goalkeeper got a hand to but couldn't keep out. As if the loss wasn't bad enough, that now leaves us 3 points out of 6th with 5 matches until the split.

    Saturday, 23 December, 2017

    Bangor City 0-1 Bala (Premier League)

    I decided to call a team meeting the day before; morale wasn't terrible, but it was dipping a bit. We had the better of the first half but wasted a couple of opportunities and went into halftime scoreless. We bossed the second half, but our shots was poor and didn't test the goalkeeper much. And sure enough, they sucker punch us in the 81st minute and run out with the win. Worse, our 4th straight defeat drops us 4 points out 6th with 4 matches until the split.

    Tuesday, 26 December 2017

    Newtown 0-0 Bangor City (Premier League)

    Alex Darlington is finally over his shin splints, but he's lacking match fitness. We escape in the 2nd minute when Newtown hit the bar when it was easier to score, and that was the only highlight for the first half. The second half wasn't much better, and we have to settle for a draw when we really needed a win. We do gain a point in the table, but we're still 3 points adrift with 3 matches until the split.

    The board isn't happy though, and demands a meeting. I decide to attend and it ends with them demanding 8 points in the next 5 games.

    0101%20Premier%20League_zpsdgip2smh.png

    Well I'm up against it now. 2 points from 21 is not good at all, and I can understand the board's unhappiness as we're in danger of not qualifying for the championship group. Still, I would have preferred they took in mind that it's only 3 matches to the split rather than setting a 5-match target. Regardless, that's what they're looking for from me.

    We have some opportunity as our final matches before the split are Prestatyn (10th) away, Aberystwyth (6th) home and Port Talbot (8th) home. These are all winnable matches, but then we picked up only 1 point from 3 teams in the bottom 4.


  6. Saturday, 4 November, 2017

    Rhayader 0-2 Bangor City (Welsh Cup, Third Round)

    An adequate performance in which both our goals were scored in the 10 minutes from halftime, one off a corner and the corner after we'd regained possession following losing a corner.

    Sadly for "magic of the cup" enthusiasts, there were no upsets as the only defeats for Premier League sides came at the hands of other Premier League sides.

    6 November, 2017

    We're drawn away to affiliate club Barry Town United in the Fourth Round. The match is scheduled for 27 January.

    Saturday, 11 November, 2017

    Bangor City 0-1 Cefn Druids (Premier League)

    Had to make a couple of changes to address a couple of players still a bit fatigued from appearances with the Wales U19s earlier in the week. Cefn Druids show their intent early on, fouling one of our players in the center circle almost straight from the kickoff. Then they went ahead in the 5th minute when a shot took a deflection off one of their players and changed direction. And that was it. We took 14 shots to Cefn Druids' 6, got 6 of ours on target compared to their 2, held 58% possession ... and lost. To a team that hadn't won yet this season.

    Saturday, 18 November, 2017

    Bangor City 0-0 Airbus UK (Premier League)

    A bore draw. Despite a combined 6 shots on target, I think there were 2 periods of highlights, aside from the opening kickoff of each half.

    Saturday, 25 November, 2017

    Pen-y-Bont 3-1 Bangor City (Premier League)

    Terrible. We took the lead on 16 minutes and then decided that was all we needed to do. Then Pen-y-Bont equalized 5 minutes later from a shot that clipped the underside of the bar and we kept sleepwalking. Their lone striker ended up with a hat trick, beating our goalkeeper to the near post all three times. After the game I gave the team the hair dryer treatment.

    [video=youtube_share;d0EnUJghBCU]

    1201%20Premier%20League_zps9gg6tgeu.png

    1 point from 9. 6 points dropped against teams in the relegation zone. That's ****ing unacceptable. Some players are going to find themselves a seat on the bench for upcoming matches after being complacent or uninterested in the Pen-y-Bont match. Our first match in December? Just TNS at home.


  7. Also, and this is me being a pedant in your thread but I've seen it misused all over European media and it irritates me every time :D

    1. "Moneyball" isn't just about using statistics to find players. It's about using statistics to find undervalued players. For example, Joe Smith and John Jones have roughly the same statistical output, but Jones is willing to take 20% less in wages than Smith is and/or Smith's club wants a higher transfer fee than Jones' does. Or maybe Joe Smith scored 25 goals last season compared to Jones' 10, but Smith took 3 times as many shots as Jones did, making Jones the more efficient player.

    (which, actually does suit your purposes as you want players to get you promoted and fit under that 4,764 euro/month wage budget)

    2. "Moneyball" has largely been superseded as every baseball club has more or less adopted similar statistical modeling (the book came out in 2003). The new wave is "big data", where you crunch thousands or tens of thousands of events to find patterns, like the Pirates did to find that the traditional manner of arranging your fielders wouldn't convert as many batted balls to outs as shifting them to the right or the left would: http://www.amazon.com/Big-Data-Baseball-Miracles-20-Year/dp/1250063507

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