Confused between "right choice" and "successful choice"

[gooster]

In the manual of almost every Footmall Manager version, i noticed this statement: "Players make thousands of mental calculations in every match based around the best option available to them at any given moment, and those are based off their attributes and their all-round competency. They aren’t always right in their decision (the specific Decisions attribute itself plays a big role here), nor is the right decision always the successful one."

I'm curious about the difference between the so-called "right choice" and "successful choice":

1. How is a choice seen as a "right choice"? When a player is on the ball, he can choose to pass (with different passing targets), dribble, shoot, etc. Maybe the final choice of the player is made based on his calculation combining the following aspects: 1) the successful rate of each choice, 2) the tactical instructions, 3) his PPMs, 4) the potential benefits of each choice (not sure this can be calculated). So can I interpret that, for example, if a player was tactically instructed to dribble more or has a PPM of dribble more, even if the dribble may not be successful, his "right choice" could still be dribbling after weighing the above aspects?

2. How is the Decision (also Anticipation) attribute affect the choices? Based on the assumptions above, can I interpret that the Decision attribute exert influence only on the calculation accuracy of different choices, e.g. players with low Decisions would bear more errors when calculating the "scores" of every choices? Since the "right choice" does not always mean a "successful choice", a higher Decision attributes (higher possibility towards the right choice) seems not necessarily mean that the player would contribute more for the success of the game.

 

[santy001]

A "right" choice is maybe the more conventional wisdom. For example, 30 yards out from goal being closed down with a blocked path to goal the "right" choice is to recycle possession in some way.

Scenario A: A player with low teamwork but good technical ability could take the man on and then rifle the ball into the top corner. It's the "wrong" choice in general, but had a positive outcome. So this can be the wrong choice, but a successful one in that instance.

Scenario B: The player might try to recycle the possession but severely under-estimate the ability of an opposing player to read this and they either intercept the attempt to recycle or apply pressure to the team mate so quickly they lose the ball. This can be the right choice, but unsuccessful.

Players are making decisions but not in a vacuum because other players on their team and the opposition are doing the same. In that second situation if the pass was going to a player with a better reading of the game, better first touch they could completely negate the aggressive press from the opposition in Scenario B. Countering that a less switched on opponent may never have moved to counter that passing option and so when the player presses forward with Scenario A he runs into 2 players, loses the ball and the opponents counter. 

Sometimes attributes can interact in interesting ways, a high flair, low teamwork, low work rate, low decisions player can probably pull off some of the more magical moments in a game. But they can also probably cause a lot of possession turnover and missed simpler opportunities. 

[gooster]

13 分钟前, santy001说:

A "right" choice is maybe the more conventional wisdom. For example, 30 yards out from goal being closed down with a blocked path to goal the "right" choice is to recycle possession in some way.

Thank you for your reply!

What I'm curious about is how the 'right choice' in the real football wisdom is reflected in the match engine. Like in Scenario A, how does the match engine identify that recycling possession is the 'right choice'? It is based on a calculation of the successful rates between 'recycling possession' and 'dribbling'? Also, does the tactical instructions and PPMs affect the ground-truth of 'right choice'? For example, in Scenario A, is it possible that in a higher mentality, 'dribbing' can also be the 'right choice'?

This matters because it determines the effect mechanism of the Decision attribute on player's performance. If the 'right choice' is consistent with tactical instructions, maybe a player with high Decision would make more negative perfomances given a wrong tactical instruction.

29 分钟前, santy001说:

Scenario B: The player might try to recycle the possession but severely under-estimate the ability of an opposing player to read this and they either intercept the attempt to recycle or apply pressure to the team mate so quickly they lose the ball. This can be the right choice, but unsuccessful.

Second question: In this scenario, you mentioned the estimation of the ability of opposing players. Is it true that a player with higher Decision can better estimate the ability of the opposing players?

[santy001]

Players as part of their decision making have to assess what they think will happen and so logically that extends to opposition players. As you quoted in your first post, thousands of decisions per match and so there's never really going to be putting any fixed parameters on that. 

The reality is that in almost every match situation it rarely comes down to two choices as to how to proceed, but for the simplicity of making the point I provided that. So there could be a handful of right choices. Tactical instructions and PPM's do factor into players decision making. You have to remember that for all purposes FM the match engine is essentially the deity level force. It can calculate what are the right options for any given situation, from there it would then build upon what decisions players make based on all the relevant factors. 

The right decision vs the successful decision allows for that Captain Picard statement to come true in FM, the whole "It is possible to commit no mistakes and still lose"

Anecdotally and based on observations from these forums its one of the areas most players struggle with handling when it comes to some unlucky defeats. You can approach the game with the right pressing philosophy, the right way of creating chances and 90% of the time you will win. There are those times though when just making the right choices over and over doesn't successfully break down the opponent in front of you. You need an unconventional "wrong" choice to create that bit more chaos or confusion in the opposition.

[gooster]

21 分钟前, santy001说:

The right decision vs the successful decision allows for that Captain Picard statement to come true in FM, the whole "It is possible to commit no mistakes and still lose"

Totally agree. That's the magic of football.

21 分钟前, santy001说:

You have to remember that for all purposes FM the match engine is essentially the deity level force. It can calculate what are the right options for any given situation, from there it would then build upon what decisions players make based on all the relevant factors. 

Still curious about that when the match engine calculate the right options, does it also consider the tactical instructions? Or just a neutral result based on player's attributes/forms and positions at that time? 

[NineCloudNine]

You can make the perfect pass but the striker might still miss.

[Rashidi]

A successful choice is always the right choice and not all right choices end up being successful. I cant help being philosophical.

[Spallo]

Am 5.4.2024 um 10:30 schrieb Rashidi:

A successful choice is always the right choice and not all right choices end up being successful. I cant help being philosophical.

To be the arrogant ***** here …

This is not philosophical. It is rather complete rubbish, because either terms are not absolut ones. They are concepts which are solely placed on subjective assessment of situation, interests, preferred outcomes etc.

And there are no successful choices because the term on its own is without any sense. There are only subjective successful outcomes of choice that are made with a certain goal in mind. 
 

of course this has nothing to do with the topic of the thread